Twins do not sign much internationally

[diehardtwinsfan]

Sure, I already said I would target less of them, and more of the top guys. You want a list of specific players, I'd say anyone on the top 30 across whatever scouting sites you want. You and I probably know less about them than those sites, or the Twins, so I'm using what resources I have.

 

Of course we can't actually judge what happened. But judging in hindsight is worthless, frankly. Anyone can go back and say, they should have done this or that. This entire board is speculating on when to call up a player, or what player to trade, or who to sign. No one is criticizing those posters for waiting 3 years before discussing the topic.

 

I've been pretty clear on who I want them to sign, I want them to sign more of the top players. Pick any site you can find on the internet, and see how they did against that. I have also acknowledged that it is reasonable to have the other strategy, sign a lot of guys like lottery tickets and see who sticks.

 

As for waiting until the signing period is done to discuss, does that mean we should not discuss who they sign in FA next year, or who they trade for, or who they promote or not, until the end of the year?

 

First, they did get one guy in the top 30. He was top 10 for that matter, and they were clearly infatuated with him b/c they went high enough to keep other bidders away... so take that for what it's worth.

 

I think you should be careful saying they should base their scouting on MLB.com's list or BA's list. That's a very poor way to run an organization... It just is, and if history is any indication, I'm just fine with them grabbing up the table scraps here. The international market, far more than the domestic market is quantity over quality. Just about all of these kids have high ceilings, but we are talking about 16 year old kids, not kids in the 18-22 range.

 

By the way, separate note, and not to your post, but I'd be really curious if someone had the time to look at compile some previous INTL classes and rank everyone in terms of bonus and see how they do. Obviously Cabrera and Sano were big bonus babies that everyone remembers, but then you have guys like Arcia who signed for peanuts in comparison.

[Mike Sixel]

The twins should not scout by reading BA.....no place did I say that. I said, we can pretty much only judge by the lists on line, given the limited information we have.

 

As for them signing a random guy for that money, since the only data u have is the lists in sites, I would fund it odd they would feel the need to spend that much money on a guy I would guess, given my limited data, they could sign for less.

 

I am well aware they signed a top 10 guy, I think I acknowledged that in the OP.

[PseudoSABR]

Sure, I already said I would target less of them, and more of the top guys. You want a list of specific players, I'd say anyone on the top 30 across whatever scouting sites you want. You and I probably know less about them than those sites, or the Twins, so I'm using what resources I have.

I'm not sure how you can continue to expect people to take you seriously when you answer this so glibly. The challenge is targeting specific players, the Twins have their own top 30 list, and it might look nothing like 'whatever scouting sites' we might prefer.

 

The notion that the Twins are purposedly screwing this up because they are cheap, or that they are being negligent, just seems off-base and ill-intended given the recent past. The signing period isn't even done yet (I believe).

[bird]

For one, they've spent about 3M from what I last read. Second, it was also recently noted that they were going to be announcing one or two more shortly. Third, unlike US college/HS rankings, BA rankings are much more suspect. It is quite possible I might add to get good talent internationally for very cheap. Lewis Thorp was 500k. If I remember right, Arcia was 80k.

 

I'll add a fourth, in that they DID sign a BA "top 30" prospect, for what little that is worth. Someone who subcribes might be able to answer this question: which of the following were ranked by BA in their top 30 article?

 

Arcia, Santana, Ortiz, Pinto, Salcedo, Mejia, Vargas, Kepler, Polanco, Jorge, Randy Rosario, Landa, Thorpe, Gibson, Romero, Tapia...?

 

Arcia, Santana, Pinto, Vargas, Kepler, and Polanco have all been considered to be among the organization's top two dozen prospects, this in a top-ranked system.

 

Three others, Sano, Minier, and Silva WERE ranked highly by BA.

 

In short, the hand-wringing is premature for sure, and the recent track record is decent enough to instill some confidence that they are faring well. They may quite possibly be having some great luck now that everyone else seems to have spent their wad. We'll know a lot more in two years I guess.

[Jim H]

Sure, I already said I would target less of them, and more of the top guys. You want a list of specific players, I'd say anyone on the top 30 across whatever scouting sites you want. You and I probably know less about them than those sites, or the Twins, so I'm using what resources I have.

 

Of course we can't actually judge what happened. But judging in hindsight is worthless, frankly. Anyone can go back and say, they should have done this or that. This entire board is speculating on when to call up a player, or what player to trade, or who to sign. No one is criticizing those posters for waiting 3 years before discussing the topic.

 

I've been pretty clear on who I want them to sign, I want them to sign more of the top players. Pick any site you can find on the internet, and see how they did against that. I have also acknowledged that it is reasonable to have the other strategy, sign a lot of guys like lottery tickets and see who sticks.

 

As for waiting until the signing period is done to discuss, does that mean we should not discuss who they sign in FA next year, or who they trade for, or who they promote or not, until the end of the year?

 

Mike, I might owe you an apology, I did not mean to get personal in my post, I suspect I was a bit mean.

 

The problem for me in this and many other posts is that it all seems to be a repeat of what has been said before. As I said, I would appreciate specifics rather than a general, "they need to sign top guys". What does that mean? Top guys according to who? Why should I care who BA has as the top ranked guys?

 

Here is one point of view. The Twins have been very active in the international market for many years. Most of those guys have not made any impact, but there is a pretty good list of those who have. More recently, say the last 5 years or maybe a bit longer, the Twins have been extremely busy internationally. They have been a large presence in Venzeula, Dominican Republic and Australia. They have signed prospects from Europe, Korea, Taiwan, South Africa and several other countries. The Twins seem to sign at least a dozen international guys every year. There could be as many 20 on the top 50 lists this winter. More importantly some of them will appear among the top 15 or so.

 

This seems to me to be a rather promising development. It doesn't mean that the Twins don't deserve criticism in the international arena, but it does mean they are doing some things right. Again, I am rather tired of the general complaining about how the Twins don't spend enough money. Be a bit more specific in your criticisms and I will try to appreciate your point of view a bit more.

[Mike Sixel]

Jim, did not take it personally at all. I am very comfortable with people making good arguments against my arguments. You never made any attack, IMO. I will just let the thread drop. I was hoping for more of a discussion around their approach, instead it turned into sides again. While my OP was not ideal, I reall wish more people on both sides could talk about their disagreements, and not about each other......not you, but others. I guess I am done with this thread.

 

Oh, the last thread I started was about the fangraphs write ups on some twins. And I keep typing how much I love Morneau. And I typed how happy I am that dozier is hitting better than I realized. And how I believe in Wimmers still. Some people here, though, only seem to notice my negative posts.......

[Oxtung]

Mike, I might owe you an apology, I did not mean to get personal in my post, I suspect I was a bit mean.

 

The problem for me in this and many other posts is that it all seems to be a repeat of what has been said before. As I said, I would appreciate specifics rather than a general, "they need to sign top guys". What does that mean? Top guys according to who? Why should I care who BA has as the top ranked guys?

 

Here is one point of view. The Twins have been very active in the international market for many years. Most of those guys have not made any impact, but there is a pretty good list of those who have. More recently, say the last 5 years or maybe a bit longer, the Twins have been extremely busy internationally. They have been a large presence in Venzeula, Dominican Republic and Australia. They have signed prospects from Europe, Korea, Taiwan, South Africa and several other countries. The Twins seem to sign at least a dozen international guys every year. There could be as many 20 on the top 50 lists this winter. More importantly some of them will appear among the top 15 or so.

 

This seems to me to be a rather promising development. It doesn't mean that the Twins don't deserve criticism in the international arena, but it does mean they are doing some things right. Again, I am rather tired of the general complaining about how the Twins don't spend enough money. Be a bit more specific in your criticisms and I will try to appreciate your point of view a bit more.

 

A couple points. First, signing players from many countries does not mean that they are high upside talents. Only that the Twins are diverse in our countries of acquisition.

 

Second, who are the best three international talents that Ryan signed that have made the majors? The best I could find were Rincon, Mijares and Rivas. Wilson Ramos could become the best if he can ever get healthy and Arcia is worth watching. That is not an impressive list if that's it. I certainly see no reason to have faith that Mr. Ryan (and the Twins) are following Mike's preferred path.

 

Third, naming specific players is pointless. We have no idea who out of the top 30 the Twins like and who they might be willing to spend on. We also have no idea if their offers would be competitive let alone the top offer. I think Mike's fine in saying he wanted more high quality players signed without being specific. That leaves it up to the Twins to decide who and for how much.

[kab21]

I wouldn't exactly use Ryan's track from more than a decade ago against him. They were basically operating with a zero int'l FA budget at the time. They weren't even signing the 500K guys (AFAIK) like Jorge, Thorpe, and Miguel Gonzalez at that time. Based on this thread getting 4-5 prospects from that group along with a top talent is seen as a disappointment.

[clutterheart]

I will not be upset if the team doesn't find anyone to spend their money on. International scouting has brought an interesting mix of players to the MLB club and has given their farm system a huge boost. Its one thing the Twins have done well in for the last 7-8 years.

Below is some international FA the club has brought in. I think we can look at this list and actually have a little faith that in this one aspect, the club knows what it is doing:

 

Oswaldo Arcia

Liam Hendriks

Danny Santana

Miguel Sano

Josmil Pinto

Deibinson Romero

Randy Rosario

Max Kepler

Kuo Hua Lo

Felix Jorge

Yorman Landa

Javier Alberto Pimentel

Hein Robb

Chih-Wei Hu

Lewis Thorpe

German Minier

 

Some big names on this list.

[Major League Ready]

The debate here seems to come down to how to spend the International $$ pool we are allotted. One school of thought appears to be sign as many guys as possible of the top 30 prospects, defined by an aggregate of the various rankings. The other, and the one the twins seem to subscribe to, is sign one or two top guys and then spread the money out. The Twins have looked far and wide while signing alot of guys they obviously felt had potential but did not have the recognition of high profile prospects. These prospects have a much lower price tag and allow the twins to acquire many instead of banking on a very small number of 16 year old kids making it.

 

It would be really easy to just go out and bid whatever it takes to land 3 top 30 guys. I much prefer the twins approach. They have committed substantial resources to scouting all over the world. They sign some top prospects but also acquire a large number of other prospects. This is a much better business model IMO.

[DaveW]

I'm not sure how you can continue to expect people to take you seriously when you answer this so glibly. The challenge is targeting specific players, the Twins have their own top 30 list, and it might look nothing like 'whatever scouting sites' we might prefer.

 

The notion that the Twins are purposedly screwing this up because they are cheap, or that they are being negligent, just seems off-base and ill-intended given the recent past. The signing period isn't even done yet (I believe).

The signing period doesn't end for another 10 months. In that case, isn't it wise to hold some money back, in case some diamond in the rough suddenly emerges out of nowhere?

[Mike Sixel]

Well stated, MLR, not sure I agree with the Twins, but you capture the debate well.

[Oxtung]

I wouldn't exactly use Ryan's track from more than a decade ago against him. They were basically operating with a zero int'l FA budget at the time. They weren't even signing the 500K guys (AFAIK) like Jorge, Thorpe, and Miguel Gonzalez at that time. Based on this thread getting 4-5 prospects from that group along with a top talent is seen as a disappointment.

 

I agree he had limitations and I am not advocating holding his track record against him. On the other hand he has no track record so the "Have faith he knows what he's doing" argument holds no water either. I think there are legitimate reasons to question his approach.

 

The signing period doesn't end for another 10 months. In that case, isn't it wise to hold some money back, in case some diamond in the rough suddenly emerges out of nowhere?

 

I wonder if the "late bloomers" wouldn't just wait to sign until next summer when they could command a higher price. On the other hand most of these prospects come from extremely poor countries and tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars probably would be extremely tempting. Interesting dilemma.

[Badsmerf]

If there is one area I wouldn't knock too hard, is the signing of INTL FA. The Twins have really stepped up their game since the Bill Smith era. Not every year is going to have a Sano available. Before judging the signings maybe wait a few years to see how things go? Arcia, Sano, Polanco, Minier, Jorge, Thorpe... those are all guys that could be a big part of the future signed in the last several years. That is a lot of talent.

[drjim]

If there is one area I wouldn't knock too hard, is the signing of INTL FA. The Twins have really stepped up their game since the Bill Smith era. Not every year is going to have a Sano available. Before judging the signings maybe wait a few years to see how things go? Arcia, Sano, Polanco, Minier, Jorge, Thorpe... those are all guys that could be a big part of the future signed in the last several years. That is a lot of talent.

 

I would still argue Target Field era over Bill Smith era. Things changed in 2009.

 

I also appreciate the comparisons of Ryan of 10-12 years ago to now like nothing has changed.

[bird]

The Scouting Department is a large and sophisticated operation. Both Terry Ryan and Bill Smith advocated for increased resources devoted to the international market. Terry Ryan put Bill Smith in charge of overseeing some of the improvements in the international area. Other than this managemant role, the GM, I believe, has much much less to do with the end results than people think. And even if the scouts find the talent, the Development staff has to do its job, for which the GM deserves only a small share of the credit or blame. Terry Ryan just isn't all that consequential in the whole scheme of things in my view.

[old nurse]

Top 30 prospect lists are nice. They are no indication of how the talent will develop. Look at how hard it is to get 18-23 year olds right. The 2003mlb draft had 37 first rounders including comp picks . 10 years later only 5 have accumulated a war of 15 by baseball reference numbers. 10 have not seen the majors, 10 have not accumulated a war of 2. The 2003 draft had 42 picks by the A's. 4 of them have made it to the majors. The only player above a WAR level of 2 was traded for Milton Bradley in a steal for the Dodgers. Tampa Bay had 50 selections with John Jaso being the best player by WAR. 9 other players were all less than 2 WAR level players. The Rays had one other player of note that draft. They did get the most out of Delmon Young.

[DaveW]

With 16-18 year old "kids" which is what they are, I imagine that top "lists" change pretty rapididly. Obviously the top handful of guys (1-10) are very widely regarded etc and seperation in abilities is obvious, but I am guessing that the majority of the guys in the 20-200 range could be changed on nearly a weekly basis potentially. So my main message is: Keep Calm and trust in the Twins when it comes to this.

 

I do like how people ignore the Twins past successes or brush them off as luck (Sano etc) while continuing this silly crusade about the Twins being cheap.

[AROG]

Disclaimer:

I have a friend that is a scout for the Astros, and most of this is based on what he has shared with me, and he would like to remain nameless so if you don't believe it I understand but his job is more important that our posts. Also, it is based on guys signed at 18 years of age and under.

 

My friend has told me that there are four teams that lead the way when it comes to international FA signings, they all have different views. By leading the way he means that those teams have either more scouts or scouts that spend more time in the field.

 

The Astros, Twins, Cardinals and Yankees. The Astros and the Cardinals like the balanced approach. One or two very highly sought after guys for large $'s followed by a few cheaper options that they like and have major upsides but could fall flat on their faces in a year or two. The Yankees try to get as many top $ signings as they can and get out. The Twins will maybe go after one to two highly sought after guys but only if they feel that everyone else is missing on him, they don't like bidding wars. He said that they will generally go after a few cheap options that have lower upsides but lower ceilings and some high upsides that the Astros and Cardinals will get into bidding wars over and sign them away.

 

He says that the high $ guys are generally accepted as 1-in-10 odds of making the majors and the the Hi-Lo guys as a 1-in-50 chance and the Lo-Hi guys as a 1-20.

 

I think Mike is just pointing out that he would like to spend more money on the better odds players that make a splash. The overall odds work better with the Astros and Cardinals for All-Star type players but he said the Twins odds are the best at getting big leaguers with an occasional All-Star mixed in.

 

IMO I like what the Asros and Cardinals are doing with mixing the highest level of upside guys and not looking for anyone who is major league average but that is me.

[Mike Sixel]

Great post AROG, and yes, that's what I'm saying. I have no doubt they'll spend all the money.

[ashbury]

Great insight, arog. I don't know whether your friend's analysis carries up through the chain of command, but it's about one step removed from an Expectation Value bang-for-the-buck approach to the multitude of possible signings.

[Rosterman]

My biggest gripe with the Twins, at times, is that but budget the money to spend, but if you don't spend it, what happens to it. Is it carried over to the next or future seasons (doubtful). DO people get a bonus if they don't spend? I also don't believe in totally throwing away money, but every season in this sport -- as in any franchise sport -- you do allocate a certain amount of dollars to gamble, win or lose. Actually, the whole payroll is a gamble. Is spending $5 million on a prospect (which they do in the first round) any worse than carrying a Joe Mays or Nick Blackburn on your roster...mistakes, but you you absorb them. This is a game in which you can never have too many bodies or talents.

 

I do wince when the Twins sign many many minor league free agents, like they have the last two years, looking for that diamond in the rough. How many made it out of spring training, didn't play at all, or were just bad...as bad as overpushing a prospect to a higher level.

 

The big question always is: what happens to the money budgeted but not spent. And the Twins do a good job of trying to figure out next year's budget...even if attendance and concessions and everything tanks.

[drjim]

I would like a little more of a mix of upside guys, but I generally would subscribe to the thought process that the younger the talent the more sense it makes to spread out risk. That is, in the international market I like more mid-tier signings while major league free agency I would want to consolidate value in fewer signings.

[Mike Sixel]

I would like a little more of a mix of upside guys, but I generally would subscribe to the thought process that the younger the talent the more sense it makes to spread out risk. That is, in the international market I like more mid-tier signings while major league free agency I would want to consolidate value in fewer signings.

 

Sound logic, frankly. Not certain I agree, but there is a strong argument to be made you are right. I don't know, for the top guys, how well the scouts "know" they are the top guys.....

[ThePuck]

I would like a little more of a mix of upside guys, but I generally would subscribe to the thought process that the younger the talent the more sense it makes to spread out risk. That is, in the international market I like more mid-tier signings while major league free agency I would want to consolidate value in fewer signings.

 

So you were firmly against the Sano signing.

[ThePuck]

Sound logic, frankly. Not certain I agree, but there is a strong argument to be made you are right. I don't know, for the top guys, how well the scouts "know" they are the top guys.....

 

Most of the top prospect guys are DR players and there are prospects camps in the DR. The scouts get their info there.

[drjim]

So you were firmly against the Sano signing.

 

No. A top tier guy or two each class is assumed, especially when underpriced.

[ThePuck]

No. A top tier guy or two each class is assumed, especially when underpriced.

 

We paid 3.1 million for him. That's more than our allotted amount for this year isn't it? In any event, you said it's better to spread out risk with these young international signings by getting more mid-tier guys while going for less quantity and more quality in normal free agency. Getting Sano certainly didn't fall under that premise.

[bird]

AROG, thanks for the illuminating post. But I'm finding it hard to believe that the industry regards the Twins as being in elite company-one of four-who devote more resources to the international market. I guess what makes me most skeptical is my perception of the Twins' relative presence in the Dominican Republic, the source of more players than any other foreign market. From admittedly a paltry amount of information, I would classify the Twins' Dominican operation as not much better than average.

 

Sure wish the mainstream guys would ask these questions for us.

[drjim]

We paid 3.1 million for him. That's more than our allotted amount for this year isn't it? In any event, you said it's better to spread out risk with these young international signings by getting more mid-tier guys while going for less quantity and more quality in normal free agency. Getting Sano certainly didn't fall under that premise.

 

Sano indeed busted the budget and Pohlad approved extra money.

 

He was also the highest regarded prospect since Miguel so he was underpriced because of the circumstances. It probably is counter to my usual plan but it was a unique circumstance.