Twins Make Ryan Jeffers the Qualifying Offer: What Happens Next?

[Riverbrian]

12 hours ago, Brandon said:

Or let's hope he accepts the QO.  If he stays the Larnarch will likely be traded and I bet they try to trade Cartini and keep Jackson for the backup C.  Those moves cancel about 12 million of the 33 million and Roden gets moved to DH.  

Caratini is owed 6.5 this year and 3.5 million for a buy out. How much will the team you trade with require the team to eat. 

My guess is substantial. 

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, Linus said:

Are you asking what I think will happen if he accepts the QO?

I'm not.

I get the impression that you and I are worried about the very same thing. Jeffers is the marquee purchase and we fill the rest of our positions with 1 year so-so guys.  

If Jeffers takes the QO... I'll be watching Tom Pohlad like a hawk. This can't be it.

  

[Linus]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm not.

I get the impression that you and I are worried about the very same thing. Jeffers is the marquee purchase and we fill the rest of our positions with 1 year so-so guys.  

If Jeffers takes the QO... I'll be watching Tom Pohlad like a hawk. This can't be it.

  

Correct. This is just me speculating which is worth the digital ink spilled to write this but my guess is, like you, if Jeffers accepts that will largely be it on the position side. Cross our fingers for a bullpen add but that’s about it. Catching has been a bad habit this franchise can’t shake. 

[MackMan]

6 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Caratini is owed 6.5 this year and 3.5 million for a buy out. How much will the team you trade with require the team to eat. 

My guess is substantial. 

My thoughts exactly. I have a feeling it would be we'd have to eat the buyout and maybe $1million. So we'd be on the hook of dead-money for $4.5 million for a backup player at best. That seems like poor spending to me, not that it isn't already for the amount of success/support he provides. Which is why we should just hold onto him. Pay him is salary and let him go at the end of 2027. That gets us to our prospects and then we sign an aging veteran as a backup to help mold or train our younger player. 

[umterp23]

Interesting article on MLB rumors website for top 50 FA’s and their predictions on each player $$’s and Years. They believe he could get $75MM over 4 years. Nice write up for each of the 50 guys.

[Riverbrian]

17 minutes ago, MackMan said:

My thoughts exactly. I have a feeling it would be we'd have to eat the buyout and maybe $1million. So we'd be on the hook of dead-money for $4.5 million for a backup player at best. That seems like poor spending to me, not that it isn't already for the amount of success/support he provides. Which is why we should just hold onto him. Pay him is salary and let him go at the end of 2027. That gets us to our prospects and then we sign an aging veteran as a backup to help mold or train our younger player. 

67 Million spent on catching: Vazquez, Caratini and if Jeffers likes the QO. Tack on the 14 million we have paid Jeffers over that time and it's 81 million. 

Have we spent 81 million on any of the other positions during this time frame? Correa at SS is probably it. Buxton would be close by himself.   

[MackMan]

5 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

67 Million spent on catching: Vazquez, Caratini and if Jeffers likes the QO. Tack on the 14 million we have paid Jeffers over that time and it's 81 million. 

Have we spent 81 million on any of the other positions during this time frame? Correa at SS is probably it. Buxton would be close by himself.   

I'm pretty sure it would be just Correa and Buxton. Maybe Donaldson would be close if we wanna go that far back. Lopez after 2027 would be about $75million. So we've handed out some deep contracts and every single one of them have had that player on the IL for an extended amount of time or we shipped them off once they became too expensive for us, while trying to maintain their level of production. Essentially their ROI wasn't turning out so good. 

I mean I understand that Catcher is a tough position that is primarily defense focused, and if you get a hitter out of it thats awesome. But now (or at least from some of what I've seen) pitching coaches are using the pitchcom with more analytical driven teams to help reduce the burden on the catcher. 

[TopGunn#22]

Offering Jeffers the qualifying offer was the easy and logical first step.  If he accepts, it's a sizable investment, but only for one season, and as others have pointed out, if there is an extended lockout, the Twins will see that $23 million dollar figure diminish as the lockout drags on.  

If he accepts, the Twins have solidified their catching position for at least whatever baseball gets played in 2027.  That, and improved health of the SP staff and impact improvement from rookies like Jenkins, Culpepper, E-Rod and eventually Marek Houston gives the Twins an encouraging chance to be very competitive in the A.L. Central.  Jeffers may not be a good pitch framer, but who cares?  With the ABS system, Jeffers IS a very effective pitch challenger.  To me, that's far more important than a skill that is by and large useless going forward.  Having Jeffers for 2027 plugs their biggest hole for 2027.  I wouldn't offer him longer than a 2-year deal, which is why he and Boras will probably decline and sign a contract for greater than $50 million with the Yankees. 

If Jeffers refuses, I think it's quite likely that the Twins get a high comp pick at the end of round #1.  The draft is always a crap-shoot, but I'll take that extra pick that high in the draft anytime.  This also gives Tom and Jeremy at least theoretically, another $23 million to improve the current roster, either by signing free agents, or making a trade that takes on some salary.  

[Dman]

If I was Jeffers I'd decline the offer.  He isn't exactly young and if he get four years around 15M per year that should set him up pretty well.  If the Twins want him they should try and sign him to a four year deal.  If Lackey moves fast they could always trade him.

[Road trip]

2 hours ago, umterp23 said:

Interesting article on MLB rumors website for top 50 FA’s and their predictions on each player $$’s and Years. They believe he could get $75MM over 4 years. Nice write up for each of the 50 guys.

I came here to post the same.  MLBTR did a nice job overall with very extensive write ups.  It's book-length... 126 pages if you want to print.  Maybe their estimates are a bit high?  (For reference, Luis Arraez predicted for 3 years/48 mil - A year ago he only got 1 year/12 M).

Jeffers was the #9 ranked free agent, with mostly pitchers ahead of him. That does seem about right to me...

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

13 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Four of their top 10 prospects are catchers.  A two year deal seems much more reasonable.

From what I've seen, his camp is looking for a longer contract than 2 years. 

There is no guarantee any of the prospects will ever make it to the majors. 

A 4 year deal works great. Jeffers can start mostly full time until 1 of the prospects are ready (if that day ever comes) . From there, the team can slowly work in the new guy while Jeffers is still around on case there are any issues. If the new guy struggles, Jeffers is there and we dont miss a beat. If the new guy takes off and is successful quickly, then Jeffers can get DH ABs or we can trade him. 

[Heiny]

I think Jeffers will take the QO, they will keep Caratini and we will have the best C tandem for 2027.  Then in 2028, the Twins will QO Caratini and trade Lackey for much needed middle relief help, and move Clemens to backup C.  LOL.

[Brandon]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Caratini is owed 6.5 this year and 3.5 million for a buy out. How much will the team you trade with require the team to eat. 

My guess is substantial. 

I figure the 3.5 million buyout.  To be honest, I did forget he had a buyout.  I think they could trade the salary.  He is a pretty solid backup I think.  not a good thrower but a good receiver.  We will get a Carlos Correa type return for him.  

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

I figure the 3.5 million buyout.  To be honest, I did forget he had a buyout.  I think they could trade the salary.  He is a pretty solid backup I think.  not a good thrower but a good receiver.  We will get a Carlos Correa type return for him.  

I can't say if you are right or wrong... I can't say I am either. 

However... there is one thing that I believe to be true.

If you sign a free agent... you are already paying more than other teams are comfortable paying for his services.

Since we outbid other teams for his services... And the first year only ate 4 million off the 14 million.

His 2027 payment raises to 10 from 4 in 2026... while his value based on his performance fell from 6 that maybe someone else would have paid to ? 

We could be talking about a player with 3 million value getting paid 10.  

If you have to eat that much to even the trade out. You might as well roll with him just in case he bounces back to what we hoped we got when he offered him that contract. 

If you can't... you must sleep in the bed you made.  

[D.C Twins]

18 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Id put my $$$ on Jeffers in Yankee pin stripes. 4 yr $75M w/ option for 5th yr. 
bummer cause we won’t pay more. 

I predict 4/60 or 3/50

[dxpavelka]

19 hours ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

From what I've seen, his camp is looking for a longer contract than 2 years. 

There is no guarantee any of the prospects will ever make it to the majors. 

A 4 year deal works great. Jeffers can start mostly full time until 1 of the prospects are ready (if that day ever comes) . From there, the team can slowly work in the new guy while Jeffers is still around on case there are any issues. If the new guy struggles, Jeffers is there and we dont miss a beat. If the new guy takes off and is successful quickly, then Jeffers can get DH ABs or we can trade him. 

Are there a lot of 29 year old catchers with slightly average at best defensive skills getting four year contracts?  

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

4 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Are there a lot of 29 year old catchers with slightly average at best defensive skills getting four year contracts?  

When he's far and away the best Catcher available, its very possible. 

[dxpavelka]

23 hours ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

When he's far and away the best Catcher available, its very possible. 

The best?  Sure.  Far and away?  I get that folks wearing Twins colored glasses might not believe this but he only only projects at 3-4 years at max AAV of $15 million.  That doesn't scream far and away the best catcher available.