We are reaping the fruits of losing Falvey and Tom’s short term goals

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I’ve said for the last 7 years we needed to do a full rebuild.  It seemed like Falvey realized that and was actually executing it fairly well before Tom short circuited it in January.  This is ultimately the reason I think Falvey mutually left the Twins. Tom had unrealistic expections the Twins could win this year when this was always going to be a 2 year rebuild. It’s why it was a waste to not trade Ryan or Jeffers or even Larnach. Now I do think we still have a good chance at the next window opening with Lackey, Jenkins, Culpepper and Houston.  
 

Everything has gone right and we are still a .500 team.  Now could we capture lightening in a bottle similar to Atlanta.  We could but it’s unlikely. Whether Atlanta, Arizona or Texas they all had some elite talents on the roster. The Twins other than Jeffers and possibly Buxton do not have the depth of elite talents either of any of the teams mentioned. The pitching roster could be similar to the Arizona roster but even still I don’t think it’s enough.  The difference with Atlanta is they gave up very little to supplement their roster. They affectively took the exact same gambles the Twins did, but they didn’t give up a Reyes, Hill, Amick, Agbayani or Klein. Now not all those prospects will hit but my guess is 1 will and if Hill becomes a #1 pitcher this would be one of the stupidest trades in Twins history for a year where we realistically don’t have a chance to compete. 
 

whether hubris, or a misalignment of personal goals (selling the team) vs the long term goals of winning the WS.  It’s ultimately why I think Falvey and Tom couldn’t get along.  Whether thinking this team could win in February or thinking this team can win now even with everything going right, it’s clear Tom isn’t either realistic how baseball works or he doesn’t care about 2-3 years down the road. Zoll is effectively a rubber stamper for Tom. To me I am more disappointed in not finishing a true rebuild than the trade deadline sell off last year. At least with a full rebuild you had the hope the Twins could compete. Right now this is all a facade and we spent enough to say we spent without giving ourselves a true chance to compete.  
 

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

This posted before I had finished. Here is my full post. 

[USAFChief]

Very fair. Possibly even true.

My issue wirh rebuilds is, there's zero guarantee they work. They sentence you to at least 2 years of suckitude, without any promise of a payoff.

In fact, Without doing any research whatsoever, I'd guess given a 3 year time frame, a teardown fails more often than succeeds.

But I certainly understand your logic and preference.

Mine are just different. I don't think it very likely you can plan a baseball team three years out. Play for today, every day, until today is impossible. Then deal only those players that won't be here next year. Or you're convinced cant help in the future because...well because they're not any good. 

Your mileage may vary

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Very fair. Possibly even true.

My issue wirh rebuilds is, there's zero guarantee they work. They sentence you to at least 2 years of suckitude, without any promise of a payoff.

In fact, Without doing any research whatsoever, I'd guess given a 3 year time frame, a teardown fails more often than succeeds.

But I certainly understand your logic and preference.

Mine are just different. I don't think it very likely you can plan a baseball team three years out. Play for today, every day, until today is impossible. Then deal only those players that won't be here next year. Or you're convinced cant help in the future because...well because they're not any good. 

Your mileage may vary

 

 

 

We've reached the basic crux of our disagreement! I can't only look at this year. I am sympathetic to your argument that rebuilds don't work, but neither does standing still. The only thing that works, and it's no guarantee, is spending lots of money. There's been outliers, sure, but they are outliers.

I think Milwaukee, Tampa, and to a lesser extent Cleveland have it right. Bail a year too early on most players, have depth in pitching, get lucky. 

My example is Kepler. They should have dealt him a year early. 

[TheLeviathan]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

We've reached the basic crux of our disagreement! I can't only look at this year. I am sympathetic to your argument that rebuilds don't work, but neither does standing still. The only thing that works, and it's no guarantee, is spending lots of money. There's been outliers, sure, but they are outliers.

I think Milwaukee, Tampa, and to a lesser extent Cleveland have it right. Bail a year too early on most players, have depth in pitching, get lucky. 

My example is Kepler. They should have dealt him a year early. 

Even spending a lot of money isn't a guarantee.  See: Mets.  However, as you imply, it is heavily correlated with winning in baseball over the last several decades.  

I think the "right" answer really depends.  It seems to me the Astros are doing the "don't ever let a rebuild happen!" mentality and they are just dying a really slow, painful death.  The flipside is the ever-rebuilding Rockies.  At some point they may have to give the beer away for free to get fans in the stands. 

I think the Twins are in a weird spot.  They SHOULD have pushed in after 2023, they did the opposite.  That decision forced a reckoning that should have resulted a rebuild.  Falvey's deadline, to that end, appears to be mostly fruitful last year apart from The Trade That Shall Not Be Named.   I still believe that path was the right one and should've been finished off at this deadline before turning the page after the new CBA.  The only reason it hasn't been is an unprecedented level of sucking in the AL as a whole.  

I think the author here is right, we are dealing with the fallout of a series of half measures which is probably the worst path you can take.  Full rebuilding last deadline, then an ok/not awful "buy" at this deadline with a roster that badly needs reconstruction is going to lead to some unfortunate outcomes IMO.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Any team that has made it to the WS has had at least 2-3 elite players. 
 

So the unexpected teams

2019 Braves- they had 3-4 elite hitters for the playoffs Acuna was injured, but still had Swanson, Freeman, Albies, and Riley. Then they caught lightening in a bottle with Eddie Rosario, Soler and Duval. 
 

2023 Rangers- 7 WAR players. Semien and Seager then a ton of good hitters around them. 

2023 Diamondbacks - Corbin Carroll, Walker, Marte and Moreno all 4+ WAR players

The Twins currently do not have enough elite players. Now the new CBA may balance the tables more, but the Twins as currently being run will always be at a disadvantage to other teams due to not spending as much. So they need to juice their odds by drafting better than other teams in a 4-5 year stretch and trade for significant assets. Now the Twins have a chance at 3-5 elite hitters all playing at the same time - Keashall, Jenkins, Lackey, Culpepper all have extremely high ceilings. Then the next tier has some questions Rodriguez, Gonzalez, and Mendez.  Is there enough talent from this group to make the next run. I would argue we would have a better chance had we taken the Red Sox offer for Ryan last year and added Arias and Tolle if that was the true offer. Plus we would have another shot at a high draft pick. Now maybe we still get lucky and get another high draft pick in the lottery. Otherwise we need 1 of the other prospects to outperform. That could be a Tinney, Winokur, Young ect.  
 

Pitching wise I am fairly confident our scouts currently have a good idea of finding talents through drafts or trades.  Between Bradley, Abel Priellip maybe Matthew’s that’s a strong core. Hill likely had 1 of the highest ceilings in the minors which is why I see the trade for Hoffman being extremely risky. We likely need a couple of the following arms to hit- Soto, Quick, Ellawanger, Reitz, Barr, Renfrow, Wachsmann, Lapour, Murdock, Burns or one of the flyers in the last 2 drafts. Now this group of pitchers have much more raw stuff than we have drafted before, but between injuries or lack of skill a good majority will wash out.  
 

Now the only upside to all of this is I think Joe Ryan has a much better relationship with Tom because he kept his word. If it increases the odds we can sign him to a long term contract, then some of the shortsightedness of this year will be worth it. Then we have to learn how to manage his workload. I think Joe gets a tired arm at the end of July and would be beneficial to give him a 2-3 week break each year to refresh. I think the all star game was the worst thing for Joe as he could have gotten some rest. Even still he is an elite pitcher who continues to improve and take good care of of his body. I think he will age gracefully. I am also not opposed to a shorter and cheaper extension with Pablo. I think he is the consummate pitcher and professional. 
 

So ultimately I still have hope but the margin of error is less. We have 3-4 less elite talented prospects than if we had done a full rebuild and traded Jeffers, Ryan and Larnach. The only positive is we did not develop a losing mentality in the clubhouse and I will give a lot of credit to Shelton.  The pitching coaches have done wonders with this staff and maximized their ability.  So @USAFChief no rebuild is a guarantee but it is likely the best shot a small market to mid market team has to developing enough elite talent all at once to win it all.  

 

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Any team that has made it to the WS has had at least 2-3 elite players. 
 

So the unexpected teams

2019 Braves- they had 3-4 elite hitters for the playoffs Acuna was injured, but still had Swanson, Freeman, Albies, and Riley. Then they caught lightening in a bottle with Eddie Rosario, Soler and Duval. 
 

2023 Rangers- 7 WAR players. Semien and Seager then a ton of good hitters around them. 

2023 Diamondbacks - Corbin Carroll, Walker, Marte and Moreno all 4+ WAR players

The Twins currently do not have enough elite players. Now the new CBA may balance the tables more, but the Twins as currently being run will always be at a disadvantage to other teams due to not spending as much. So they need to juice their odds by drafting better than other teams in a 4-5 year stretch and trade for significant assets. Now the Twins have a chance at 3-5 elite hitters all playing at the same time - Keashall, Jenkins, Lackey, Culpepper all have extremely high ceilings. Then the next tier has some questions Rodriguez, Gonzalez, and Mendez.  Is there enough talent from this group to make the next run. I would argue we would have a better chance had we taken the Red Sox offer for Ryan last year and added Arias and Tolle if that was the true offer. Plus we would have another shot at a high draft pick. Now maybe we still get lucky and get another high draft pick in the lottery. Otherwise we need 1 of the other prospects to outperform. That could be a Tinney, Winokur, Young ect.  
 

Pitching wise I am fairly confident our scouts currently have a good idea of finding talents through drafts or trades.  Between Bradley, Abel Priellip maybe Matthew’s that’s a strong core. Hill likely had 1 of the highest ceilings in the minors which is why I see the trade for Hoffman being extremely risky. We likely need a couple of the following arms to hit- Soto, Quick, Ellawanger, Reitz, Barr, Renfrow, Wachsmann, Lapour, Murdock, Burns or one of the flyers in the last 2 drafts. Now this group of pitchers have much more raw stuff than we have drafted before, but between injuries or lack of skill a good majority will wash out.  
 

Now the only upside to all of this is I think Joe Ryan has a much better relationship with Tom because he kept his word. If it increases the odds we can sign him to a long term contract, then some of the shortsightedness of this year will be worth it. Then we have to learn how to manage his workload. I think Joe gets a tired arm at the end of July and would be beneficial to give him a 2-3 week break each year to refresh. I think the all star game was the worst thing for Joe as he could have gotten some rest. Even still he is an elite pitcher who continues to improve and take good care of of his body. I think he will age gracefully. I am also not opposed to a shorter and cheaper extension with Pablo. I think he is the consummate pitcher and professional. 
 

So ultimately I still have hope but the margin of error is less. We move 3-4 less elite talent than if we had done a full rebuild and traded Jeffers, Ryan and Larnach. The only positive is we did not develop a losing mentality in the clubhouse and I will give a lot of credit to Shelton.  The pitching coaches have done wonders with this staff and maximized their ability.  So @USAFChief no rebuild is a guarantee but it is likely the best shot a small market to mid market team has to developing enough elite talent all at once to win it all.  

 

I certainly agree we're currently short of elite talent. 

[strumdatjag]

The Twins overdid the firesale last year and suffered a massive drop in attendance and fan interest.  They were worried that would increase even if they only sold Jeffers this year.  
or it is possible that they did not receive an adequate offer for him. 
Don’t underestimate the possibility that the fan revolt motivated the failure to properly move Jeffers.   That is the only big mistake of this deadline (unless there was no offer for Jeffers that approached that offered by Boston for Adley R - who knows?)  
I don’t buy into the Pohlad-Falvey philosophical feud posited here.   That presumes too much 

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Very fair. Possibly even true.

My issue wirh rebuilds is, there's zero guarantee they work. They sentence you to at least 2 years of suckitude, without any promise of a payoff.

In fact, Without doing any research whatsoever, I'd guess given a 3 year time frame, a teardown fails more often than succeeds.

But I certainly understand your logic and preference.

Mine are just different. I don't think it very likely you can plan a baseball team three years out. Play for today, every day, until today is impossible. Then deal only those players that won't be here next year. Or you're convinced cant help in the future because...well because they're not any good. 

Your mileage may vary

 

 

 

Did the Orioles ever really rebuild from the Jim Palmer era

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

The Twins overdid the firesale last year and suffered a massive drop in attendance and fan interest.  They were worried that would increase even if they only sold Jeffers this year.  
or it is possible that they did not receive an adequate offer for him. 
Don’t underestimate the possibility that the fan revolt motivated the failure to properly move Jeffers.   That is the only big mistake of this deadline (unless there was no offer for Jeffers that approached that offered by Boston for Adley R - who knows?)  
I don’t buy into the Pohlad-Falvey philosophical feud posited here.   That presumes too much 

I’ve learned to take Tom at his word. He said he wasn’t trading Jeffers or Buxton or Ryan.  What I don’t agree with is fake buying,  We will buy to not hurt fan feelings.  Even if you don’t agree with what the dispute was, probably a multitude of things, micro manager, unrealistic expectations with the likelihood of losing his job. The issue is they didn’t even interview.  They just gave Zoll the job.  Fans wouldn’t revolt over losing 2 months of Jeffers especially if the trade return was good.  

[HarmonK03]

10 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I’ve learned to take Tom at his word. He said he wasn’t trading Jeffers or Buxton or Ryan.  What I don’t agree with is fake buying,  We will buy to not hurt fan feelings.  Even if you don’t agree with what the dispute was, probably a multitude of things, micro manager, unrealistic expectations with the likelihood of losing his job. The issue is they didn’t even interview.  They just gave Zoll the job.  Fans wouldn’t revolt over losing 2 months of Jeffers especially if the trade return was good.  

It was two weeks before spring training that is a tough time to try and hire a replacement.  What I wish he would have done is give Zoll more of an interim title.  But the roster was already set for the year so it was hard to bring in somebody new at that point.  I do wish he would have brought a senior advisor to help guide Zoll at some point early in the season.

Where I blame the Pohlads is they waited too long to resolve the ownership issue.  It needed to be done in October so they could have had better direction for the offseason.

One thing that is being missed in the Pohlad/Falvey discussion is Joe was the first Pohlad to have an office in the Twins offices and actually worked there in marketing.  I believe Joe and Tom had developed a relationship that was more than just typical boss/employee from when Joe was not the owner in charge based on comments Falvey has made in the past.  So it appears this change goes deeper than just differences in how to proceed.  And Falvey did lose some power by having the business removed from his portfolio, that is not always an easy pill to swallow.

As for the rebuild, Falvey did not act like he was in a full rebuild last offseason before Tom took over.  You don't sign Bell and Caratini if you are in rebuild mode.  That is a narrative that continues but Falvey has been the one doing half measures ever since he took over.  There never was a clear plan and at some point he needs to be the one to be held accountable as well.  Whether the owners supported him or not but you still have to have a plan.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Both Bell and Caratini were signed after Tom took over. We were set to sell Ryan at the winter meetings and direction suddenly changed. Next thing we knew Joe was out and Tom was in. 

[ziggy]

Quote

Did the Orioles ever really rebuild from the Jim Palmer era

they sure sucked for a lot of years even with Cal Ripken.

[ziggy]

45 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

That is a narrative that continues but Falvey has been the one doing half measures ever since he took over. 

I can't find his quote but Falvey used a phrase close to "sustainably competing" meaning that year after year they are winning more than using.

The Twins do have to draft better than the other clubs......but doesn't every club think that same thing? One club that would not have to draft better is the Dodgers and they seem to have a top 5 minor league system year after year.

[MMBoys93]

Atlanta, Arizona, Texas have one big difference 

they spend a lot more money. Twins are so lucky they’re in the central and can pretend to contend at .500 and please a huge group of fans that way. 
 

I despise the Yankees and their fans but sometimes I wish their fans ruthlessness could be sprinkled on us a little bit. 
 

Let the Pohlad’s roll all over us for years and buying a couple relievers whose best days are behind them and everyone has hope again. Stockholm syndrome 

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

It was two weeks before spring training that is a tough time to try and hire a replacement.  What I wish he would have done is give Zoll more of an interim title.  But the roster was already set for the year so it was hard to bring in somebody new at that point.  I do wish he would have brought a senior advisor to help guide Zoll at some point early in the season.

Where I blame the Pohlads is they waited too long to resolve the ownership issue.  It needed to be done in October so they could have had better direction for the offseason.

One thing that is being missed in the Pohlad/Falvey discussion is Joe was the first Pohlad to have an office in the Twins offices and actually worked there in marketing.  I believe Joe and Tom had developed a relationship that was more than just typical boss/employee from when Joe was not the owner in charge based on comments Falvey has made in the past.  So it appears this change goes deeper than just differences in how to proceed.  And Falvey did lose some power by having the business removed from his portfolio, that is not always an easy pill to swallow.

As for the rebuild, Falvey did not act like he was in a full rebuild last offseason before Tom took over.  You don't sign Bell and Caratini if you are in rebuild mode.  That is a narrative that continues but Falvey has been the one doing half measures ever since he took over.  There never was a clear plan and at some point he needs to be the one to be held accountable as well.  Whether the owners supported him or not but you still have to have a plan.

Virtually every word in this post is incorrect. 

 

[HarmonK03]

27 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Virtually every word in this post is incorrect. 

 

Wow, pretty bold statement, considering a lot of the post was opinion.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

@USAFChief

The Pohlads had their meeting in late November.  Prior to the Winter Meeting Falvey had been given no direction on budget but the implication was they would need to decrease it further and Joe Ryan was heavily being floated in trades specifically the Red Sox.  The day before Winter Meetings Falvey notified teams they would not be trading Ryan.   Joe went MIA after the Pohlad Meeting.   The Twins did zero at the winter meetings.  

December 17th Tom Pohlad officially announce

https://kstp.com/kstp-news/local-news/wild-owner-revealed-as-twins-minority-investor-tom-pohlad-takes-over-as-clubs-top-executive/

December 19th signed Bell

https://www.mlb.com/news/josh-bell-twins-contract

January 23rd Caratini signs with Twins

https://www.mlb.com/news/victor-caratini-twins-contract

 

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

@USAFChief

The Pohlads had their meeting in late November.  Prior to the Winter Meeting Falvey had been given no direction on budget but the implication was they would need to decrease it further and Joe Ryan was heavily being floated in trades specifically the Red Sox.  The day before Winter Meetings Falvey notified teams they would not be trading Ryan.   Joe went MIA after the Pohlad Meeting.   The Twins did zero at the winter meetings.  

December 17th Tom Pohlad officially announce

https://kstp.com/kstp-news/local-news/wild-owner-revealed-as-twins-minority-investor-tom-pohlad-takes-over-as-clubs-top-executive/

December 19th signed Bell

https://www.mlb.com/news/josh-bell-twins-contract

January 23rd Caratini signs with Twins

https://www.mlb.com/news/victor-caratini-twins-contract

 

Your facts are correct. 

[ziggy]

another opinion or perhaps fact:

the only way to tell if these half measure trade deadline dealings did indeed improve fan interest and bought some good will is if the game ticket sales go up. 

I'm also in the camp of 'pick a lane' but trades can and could happen in the off season for Joe Ryan and Larnauch/Lewis if the Twins offer them arbitration. 

If the Twins would have traded both Ryans, Larnauch and Bell (4 players) I think there would have been as much angst as last year when they traded 10 guys. 

[Linus]

19 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Very fair. Possibly even true.

My issue wirh rebuilds is, there's zero guarantee they work. They sentence you to at least 2 years of suckitude, without any promise of a payoff.

In fact, Without doing any research whatsoever, I'd guess given a 3 year time frame, a teardown fails more often than succeeds.

But I certainly understand your logic and preference.

Mine are just different. I don't think it very likely you can plan a baseball team three years out. Play for today, every day, until today is impossible. Then deal only those players that won't be here next year. Or you're convinced cant help in the future because...well because they're not any good. 

Your mileage may vary

 

 

 

I agree that rebuilds should be avoided if at all possible. A good FO and stable ownership probably means you would rarely have to do them. Where I differ is there are situations where the risk of the rebuild is outweighed by the potential talent influx. I see the Twins as needing 2-3 really good players before they will be better than a 500 ish club. History would suggest we are not acquiring these players via free agency. Could they be Houston and Jenkins?  Sure in two years when we don’t have Ryan, Lopez and Ober. IMO the timing was right to reset this team. Having said that I will be watching each night enjoying the games. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I agree that rebuilds should be avoided if at all possible. A good FO and stable ownership probably means you would rarely have to do them. Where I differ is there are situations where the risk of the rebuild is outweighed by the potential talent influx. I see the Twins as needing 2-3 really good players before they will be better than a 500 ish club. History would suggest we are not acquiring these players via free agency. Could they be Houston and Jenkins?  Sure in two years when we don’t have Ryan, Lopez and Ober. IMO the timing was right to reset this team. Having said that I will be watching each night enjoying the games. 

I will agree - I actually think they should have gone all in last deadline.  That was the time to try then to sell at the winter meetings.   I think the issue was Rocco had lost the clubhouse and you had some pretty good dissent coming from some prominent players in the clubhouse.  The other issue is the organization was cash strapped due to the debt.  So they traded the assets they had.   

[Riverbrian]

Rebuild has degrees of varying depth. 

Full rebuild? I wouldn't have traded Buxton under any circumstance and I would have kept Lopez because I didn't think his trade value was high enough to require a Lopez deal so full rebuild wouldn't apply to what was my opinion during the off season.

I also don't believe that you have to do a full rebuild nor do you have to go through two or three or four years of pain when these re-whatevers occur. 

However...I believe they should have finished in the off season what they started in August. The team was still under construction. They were not Bell and Caratini away. They should of cashed in the players at peak value. Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers value was as high as it was going to get. Now... These things are easy for me to say from North Dakota. Inside the walls of that front office... I'd imagine... it's not so easy.  

All I can do is imagine... no idea but it sure seems like there were two pretty abrupt direction changes that the front office didn't seem prepared for. 

Just based on actions alone... I'm pretty convinced that there was a significant change in direction after 2023 heading into 2024. That was a tragic mistake in my opinion. It killed forward momentum and I don't believe the front office was prepped for it. 

I also believe... I have no proof but based on actions... there was a change in direction this off-season. 

I do believe that Falvey was going to sell... to what degree I don't know but I believe he was going to sell this off-season and then something changed. I base my opinions on quotes in November that sounded different than the quotes that came out in December.