The Twins May Have Found Their Best Pitching Formula—But Can They Even Use It?

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

For over 50 years, Major League Baseball teams operated with a four-man starting rotation. From roughly the 1890s through the early 1970s, that model was the standard across the sport. Pitchers would take the ball every fourth day (sometimes, early in that window, every third); work deep into games; and then be ready to go again after three days of rest. For a long time, it worked. But baseball eventually changed.

Once MLB expanded to the now-standard 162-game schedule in the early 1960s, teams started realizing that relying on just four starters for an entire season was increasingly difficult. Arm injuries became harder to ignore, workloads became more demanding, and organizations slowly shifted toward a five-man rotation—not just because of the extra eight games, but because the league added eight teams in the 1960s.

Expansion brought a bunch of new pitchers into the majors, which meant adding more guys who weren't good enough to start (or maybe even to pitch) in the smaller leagues previously. It might sound like going to more starters in response to that diffusion of talent would be counterproductive, but with that diffusion came democratization. Because everyone was suddenly (and, as it's turned out, permanently) short on pitchers, spreading the workload more to protect the arms of your best hurlers made sense. It didn't cost you much, in a relative sense, and after all, baseball is a zero-sum game.

Not coincidentally, it was also in the early and mid-1970s that the players became much more powerful and much better-paid, via the advent of the MLB Players Association and free agency. Pitchers were better protected from losing their jobs due to injuries, at least without compensation, and teams stood to lose more cash by going through pitchers' arms as fast as they used to. For all those reasons, five replaced four. That eventually became the norm across the league, and it’s the structure baseball has operated with for the last several decades. Now, though, things appear to be evolving once again.

More and more teams around baseball have started experimenting with six-man starting rotations, essentially allowing their starters to pitch just once a week. And recently, the Twins have joined that growing trend. The timing made sense. The Twins’ last off day came on May 21, and they won’t have another until June 8. That meant their rotation was staring down roughly two-and-a-half weeks without any built-in additional rest.

That’s a dangerous game to play with any pitching staff, especially one that has already dealt with several injury concerns throughout the year. So instead of overworking their starters, the Twins adjusted. Over the last couple weeks, Minnesota has toyed with a six-man rotation consisting of Joe Ryan, Taj Bradley, Bailey Ober, Connor Prielipp, Zebby Matthews, and Kendry Rojas or Simeon Woods Richardson. Now, Rojas and Ober are hurt and Woods Richardson is back in the Blue Jays organization, but those don't seem to be related to this cautious usage. If anything, the balky elbows of Ober and Rojas demonstrate why this measure was needed—and why, even as they now navigate having too few reliable starters even to fill out a five-man stable, they're adding sixth days here and there via bullpen games like Thursday night's.

For at least a couple of these guys, that extra day of rest appears to be making a real difference. Joe Ryan threw harder in his last start and cited some work between starts as the reason that was possible. Prielipp and Bradley are working deeper into games than they've ever consistently done, at any level of baseball.

More importantly, it’s also helped keep this group on the field. Rojas landing on the 15-day injured list with triceps inflammation is obviously concerning, but beyond that, the six-man setup has eased the workload on a rotation that has already battled its fair share of health issues this season. Rojas is already throwing again, and on his way back via what the team expects to be a short ramp-up.

Bradley has already had an IL stint. Ryan was pulled from a start after just nine pitches last month. Mick Abel is currently injured as well, and Prielipp’s injury history is extensive, dating back to college. This is not a pitching staff overflowing with durable, 200-inning workhorses. It’s a talented group, but it’s also one that probably benefits greatly from additional rest and workload management. Which raises an interesting question: should the Twins continue using a six-man rotation for the rest of the season?

I’m going to say yes, and there are a couple of reasons why. The first is simple: the current setup is producing results. The pitching staff has looked significantly better recently. Starters are getting deeper into games, the overall group appears healthier, and the extra rest seems to be maximizing the effectiveness of the rotation. Even once the schedule begins including more off days later in the summer, protecting this pitching staff should remain the organization’s top priority. Manager Derek Shelton said that very thing in reference to the team's insistence on sliding back Prielipp's starts at times, to avoid ratcheting up his workload too quickly.

The Twins are going to go as far as their pitching takes them this year. That’s just the reality of the roster construction. Keeping those arms healthy matters more than anything else. But there’s another reason why this setup makes sense, too, and it has to do with the bullpen. Because while the rotation has stabilized recently, the bullpen really hasn’t. Inconsistency has plagued that unit for much of the season, and asking relievers to constantly cover four or five innings every night simply hasn’t been sustainable. Having six starters alleviates some of that pressure.

Right niw, of course, that formula isn't one they can put into action. They don't even have five healthy starters. Ryan, Prielipp, Matthews and Bradley are taking their turns, and the team is just trying to get to the next off day as they await the returns of both Abel and Rojas. Once those two come back, a six-man group becomes more feasible, but as the loss of Ober (even if it's only for a few weeks, as the team hopes) reminds us, there's no guarantee that other injuries will hold off while these heal.

The Twins have something a lot of organizations don’t: legitimate pitching depth. And because of that depth, they’re uniquely positioned to make this kind of setup work long-term.

Not every team can realistically survive with six starters. Some organizations barely have four reliable options. But the Twins have enough young arms, enough flexibility, and enough interchangeable pieces to consistently rotate guys in and out without completely disrupting the staff. That’s an advantage. And frankly, it’s one they should probably lean into as much as possible. Modern baseball is constantly evolving when it comes to pitcher usage. Teams are searching for ways to maximize performance while minimizing injuries, and the traditional five-man rotation no longer feels quite as safe as it once did.

For the Twins specifically, a six-man rotation might simply make the most sense. The results have been encouraging, the staff looks fresher, and the workload distribution feels more manageable. With so many talented but injury-prone arms on the roster, giving everyone an extra day of rest could pay massive dividends over the course of a long season.

At this point, there’s very little reason to abandon it. They just have to ride out the storm, hoping that they soon have enough healthy hurlers to enact it again.

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[DJL44]

Why would they want to get fewer innings from Joe Ryan? How are they going to cover the workload in the bullpen with one fewer pitcher?

[IndianaTwin]

I wouldn’t say they have experimented with a six-man rotation.

Look at Ryan. He started game 1. Then because of two off days, he started game 5, followed by games 10/15/20/25/30/35/40/45/50/55 and then 61.

So only once (the last time, in the middle of their current long consecutive-day streak), has Ryan been out of a five-man rotation rhythm. That there have been more than five guys getting starts is more of a reflection on the rotation shifting to compensate for injuries (or suckage, in the case of SWR’s demise).

On one occasion, they used a rotation shift to get Prielipp a couple extra days once, but again, other this current time of injecting an extra starter, the rest of his starts have come five games after his previous start. He’s thrown in games 24, 29, 34, 39, extra rest 46, 56 and then the insertion to 62.

Separately, a reason not to go to a six-man rotation is the same as the reason to not piggy-back long-term. It leaves you with a seven-man bullpen.