Patience Now Could Pay Off Big for Twins and Kaelen Culpepper

[Cris E]

Most teams have trouble moving kids from AA/AAA to long-term success in the majors. The individual players that do it are exceptions and lauded because it happens so inconsistently.  In fact fans of other teams are almost certainly wondering why their team can't crank out rookies like the Twins keep producing: Keaschall, Lewis, Julien and Miranda were all the envy of baseball for a year or three. 

The Orioles have had the best minor league lineup for years but have had huge difficulty getting those guys to produce regularly at the major league level. Gunnar Henderson is a ROY hitting .211 and looking lost this year.  Colby Mayo was a very highly rated prospect who has not hit in MLB. ROY runner-up Colton Cowser has only had one good year in four and his OPS+ is down to 46 right now. Jackson Holliday looked good through two years but broke his hamate in spring training and only returned to the majors this week.

The Twins have managed to get good first seasons out of some guys where other teams have difficulty launching new hitters, but sophomore slumps are a very real problem everywhere. We have Julien, Lewis, Keaschall, and Roman Anthony in BOS has seen a 47 point drop in OPS+ this year, and BAL sophomore Jeremiah Jackson's OPS+ is down 25 points from last year.  The Padres CF Jackson Merrill was a ROY runner up in 2024, but since his big debut his OPS+ have gone 127, 113 and 68 this year. James Outman has never matched his rookie year with the Dodgers.

Finally, recall that Wallner was sent down to regain his hitting stroke at the start of 2024 as well and he came back to have a fine season. Meanwhile Austin Martin took years in both AAA and MLB to emerge as the player people seem to trust today. Rooker played in MIN, San Diego and Kansas City before blooming in Oakland at age 28.  There's no single path. 

[Cris E]

43 minutes ago, Elite Benchwarmer said:

I've fully come around to understand that it's time to bring up all of the top prospects over the next 2-3 months.  The current Twinspocalypse has Tristan Gray, Ryan Kreidler, Orlando Arcia, Alex Jackson and James Outman.  (Remember when one of Gray/Kreidler/Arcia was the choice for 26th man to start the season?) At least two of these players will start every game.

I'm all in on a repeat of 1981!

The thing about 1981 is that the Twins you are probably thinking of didn't play much at all. The only WS guys were Hrbek, Launder and Gaetti and they only played 24, 14 and 9 games that year. There were a bunch of other pieces that looked OK (Roy Smalley, Gary Ward, John Castino) but nothing to work with. 

You're probably thinking of 1982 where Laudner and Hrbek and Brunansky and Gaetti and Viola were all full time players.  I think half the reason some of these guys weren't called up in 1981 was to put on a little bit better show in the new park for the first season. But it was a dumb reason since so few people went to games at the Metrodome. (Fun fact: first game in the new park was 4-9-81 and the attendance was 42658. The second game was 4-10-81 and the attendance was 4552. I tried counting games over 20k but had to lower my sights a bit: they had 12 games over 10k. including opening night, fan appreciation, and the Yankees and Brewers)

 

Sorry, that was wrong: 1982 was first Metrodome year, still 52k on opening night and 5213 for game 2.  They did sell a lot more seats to see plastic baseball.

[Elite Benchwarmer]

16 minutes ago, Cris E said:

The thing about 1981 is that the Twins you are probably thinking of didn't play much at all. The only WS guys were Hrbek, Launder and Gaetti and they only played 24, 14 and 9 games that year. There were a bunch of other pieces that looked OK (Roy Smalley, Gary Ward, John Castino) but nothing to work with. 

You're probably thinking of 1982 where Laudner and Hrbek and Brunansky and Gaetti and Viola were all full time players.  I think half the reason some of these guys weren't called up in 1981 was to put on a little bit better show in the new park for the first season. But it was a dumb reason since so few people went to games at the Metrodome. (Fun fact: first game in the new park was 4-9-81 and the attendance was 42658. The second game was 4-10-81 and the attendance was 4552. I tried counting games over 20k but had to lower my sights a bit: they had 12 games over 10k. including opening night, fan appreciation, and the Yankees and Brewers)

 

Sorry, that was wrong: 1982 was first Metrodome year, still 52k on opening night and 5213 for game 2.  They did sell a lot more seats to see plastic baseball.

The parallel isn't perfect, but get these young prospects some big league time = 1981.  Next year they can be season-long starters = 1982.

[Cris E]

And immediately you'll have a World Series Champion in five years.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, mickster said:

Would love to see the Twins tell Lewis to grab a 1B mitt at St. Paul

I’m hoping that’s what Lee works (1B) on ALL Winter ……….. Royce is a great option from a “profile” standpoint in paper. Not sure he’s got the hitting tool anymore - I know that’s dramatic but he’s not been good for any length of time for 1.5 seasons.

[Cris E]

25 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I’m hoping that’s what Lee works (1B) on ALL Winter ……….. Royce is a great option from a “profile” standpoint in paper. Not sure he’s got the hitting tool anymore - I know that’s dramatic but he’s not been good for any length of time for 1.5 seasons.

I don't care what glove he carries around until he can hit .200 again. 1B is where to hide a guy who can only hit, or at least can hit enough and field really well. Royce is neither of those guys right now (and we don't have nearly the alternatives at 3B that we do at 1B: there's no Hendry Mendez or Gabby Gonzalez that can be shifted easily. )

[arby58]

8 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Arcia earned the promotion but Culpepper will be up before the end of the year I believe.  

But it raises a question for me. I see other clubs bring up young players who have some struggles but seem to overcome and progress.  But we seem to have the promote and flame out - Lewis and Wallner, promote and injuries - Lewis and Kiriloff, looking like a star and then struggle - Keaschall.  

Lee is the opposite - he started low with lots of criticism and seems to be growing as a player. 

Please explain - we have so many with such good potential but we have not had as much success as I would like to see from prospects.  If they prepare Culpepper right I will be delighted. 

I'm not sure I buy in that the Twins are all that different. Just look at Outman, who was a Dodgers 'shining star' and then he wasn't. Both Lewis and Kirilloff were the products of injuries, and, again, the Twins are not unique there.  It's way too early to write off Keaschall - lots of players struggle their second year in MLB, and Keaschall didn't even have a full first year.

Wallner is a typical boom or bust power hitter. Who knows with him? Rooker is the example of a player who, after multiple teams tried, he finally figured it out. 

[arby58]

7 hours ago, Nshore said:

This almost exact article could have been written about Royce Lewis before he was first called up.  The Twins have to find out why these guys are going from raking in AAA to completely helpless in the Major Leagues.  If it means more time at AAA, so be it.  But it seems like there's more to it than that.

Royce Lewis was never 'completely harmless' in his call up to the Twins. 12 games in 2022, .867 OPS and 143 OPS+. |n 2023, in 58 games, he was .921 OPS and 249 OPS+.

Maybe you are thinking of another Royce Lewis?

[Nshore]

5 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Royce Lewis was never 'completely harmless' in his call up to the Twins. 12 games in 2022, .867 OPS and 143 OPS+. |n 2023, in 58 games, he was .921 OPS and 249 OPS+.

Maybe you are thinking of another Royce Lewis?

You're right - I think it was Jerry Lewis, or maybe Joe E. Lewis.  Whatever- they need to get to the bottom of whatever  is seriously wrong with them.

[Mike Sixel]

9 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

The Minnesota Twins knew demoting Royce Lewis would create headlines. What they probably also knew was that the follow-up decision would create even more debate.

Instead of promoting top prospect Kaelen Culpepper, the Twins turned to veteran Orlando Arcia to fill the roster spot. For a fan base looking for a spark and dreaming about the organization’s future, it felt underwhelming. Culpepper is one of the most exciting prospects in the system, and he’s been on an absolute heater during May.

But even if the move was unpopular, it was probably the correct long-term decision. Culpepper has played fewer than 40 games at Triple-A. On a recent episode of Inside Twins, general manager Jeremy Zoll discussed how he believes the jump from Triple-A to the big leagues is more difficult now than ever. That distinction makes it easier to swallow the Culpepper decision. 

The former first-round pick has looked impressive for St. Paul, slashing .253/.346/.469, with nine home runs and nine steals in 39 games. Since the calendar flipped to May, he has elevated his production even further, hitting .291/.403/.582 with four homers in 67 plate appearances. There is no question that the talent is real.

Selected with the 21st overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, Culpepper has moved quickly through the organization because of his athleticism, power potential, and defensive versatility. While he has spent most of his time at shortstop, he also has extensive experience at third base, dating back to college. Some evaluators even believe third base could ultimately become his best defensive home because of his arm strength.

That positional flexibility makes him even more enticing. The temptation is obvious. If the Twins are serious about moving on from Lewis (for the time being), there are multiple ways Culpepper could fit onto the roster immediately. Brooks Lee could shift to third base to open shortstop for Culpepper, or Culpepper himself could handle third while continuing to get occasional work in the middle infield.

On paper, it all works. Reality is a little more complicated. The Twins are trying to avoid putting Culpepper into a situation where he arrives in the majors before every aspect of his game is fully prepared. According to The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, team officials want him to continue refining his defense at shortstop while also developing more consistency offensively. That is not an insult to his performance. It acknowledges that Triple-A development is still part of the process.

Fans often treat promotions like rewards for good statistics, but organizations view them as long-term investments. Once a top prospect arrives in the majors, expectations change immediately. Every slump becomes magnified. Every defensive mistake becomes a talking point. The Twins would prefer Culpepper’s debut to come when they believe he is fully equipped to stay permanently, rather than bouncing between levels because of short-term roster needs.

That distinction matters. Too many organizations across baseball have rushed prospects simply because the big league roster needed energy. Sometimes it works, like what the Twins saw with Luke Keaschall in 2025. Other times, a player arrives before he is fully polished, struggles immediately, loses confidence, and spends the next two years trying to recover.

The Twins do not want Culpepper learning on the fly while trying to save a roster spot. That is where Arcia makes perfect sense. He is not the flashy choice, but he is the practical one. Arcia has spent a decade in the majors and can handle multiple infield positions without the organization having to worry about stunting his development. He is also earning the opportunity himself after hitting .318/.376/.556 (.932) with eight home runs in 39 games for St. Paul.

Most importantly, Arcia buys the Twins time. If Lewis figures things out quickly or if the roster construction changes again in a few weeks, Minnesota avoids forcing Culpepper into a potentially unstable situation. If Culpepper continues to dominate Triple-A while sharpening his defense and approach, the eventual call-up becomes easier and cleaner.

And if the Twins do summon him later this summer, they want it to feel permanent. That should excite Twins fans more than a rushed promotion in May.

Culpepper is clearly part of Minnesota’s future. Nothing about this decision changes that reality. In fact, keeping him at Triple-A for now may be the best evidence that the organization believes he can become a cornerstone player instead of just a temporary roster fix.

The hardest part for fans is patience. The smartest part for the Twins may be showing it.

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Should Culpepper have been promoted? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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Few players arrive fully prepared.. if he's not up this year, then he won't be ready next year. 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Cris E said:

I don't care what glove he carries around until he can hit .200 again. 1B is where to hide a guy who can only hit, or at least can hit enough and field really well. Royce is neither of those guys right now (and we don't have nearly the alternatives at 3B that we do at 1B: there's no Hendry Mendez or Gabby Gonzalez that can be shifted easily. )

For ‘27, I’m bullish on moving Lee to 1B. Culpepper at 3B - Houston at SS - Keaschall at 2B. Lee’s lack of mobility is worked around - he’d have a nice glove at 1B - switch hitter with a 20 HR probability ……. particularly if the defensive pressure is reduced. Can still be a utility guy at other spots in the dirt if needed.

[JD-TWINS]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Few players arrive fully prepared.. if he's not up this year, then he won't be ready next year. 

?????

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

?????

He needs MLB experience this year, to be ready next year. Few players arrive fully ready. 

[Cris E]

46 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

For ‘27, I’m bullish on moving Lee to 1B. Culpepper at 3B - Houston at SS - Keaschall at 2B. Lee’s lack of mobility is worked around - he’d have a nice glove at 1B - switch hitter with a 20 HR probability ……. particularly if the defensive pressure is reduced. Can still be a utility guy at other spots in the dirt if needed.

Expecting both Culpepper and Houston to make the big jump to MLB without issues less than a year from now (especially in the context of this week's moves) seems awfully optimistic.  Both have significant work to do at their current levels, and then Houston should see AAA and we still have to get Luke's head back on his shoulders and hope that Wallner and Lewis can regain their lost luster. 

1B allows a hitter with just about any glove to get a spot in the order. Lee needs to keep improving his batting a lot to earn a 1B spot, especially if they find some other good hitter who can handle the big mitt. And I really expect that one of the AAA guys is going to be forced to 1B during 2026. The big league team has been piecing it together over there for a long time, and while the France and Clemens types are a lot cheaper than real 1B, they just don't perform like a prime Wallner minus the terrible RF defense (to name just one example.) 

[Linus]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

For ‘27, I’m bullish on moving Lee to 1B. Culpepper at 3B - Houston at SS - Keaschall at 2B. Lee’s lack of mobility is worked around - he’d have a nice glove at 1B - switch hitter with a 20 HR probability ……. particularly if the defensive pressure is reduced. Can still be a utility guy at other spots in the dirt if needed.

There is zero chance Houston sees the big leagues next year. Lee will have to hit a crap ton better to play first base on a contending team. I would bring Culpepper up this year but wait until he hits his stride. Hopefully he would come up and never go back. 

[karcherd]

Culpepper is at 3B again tonight, second game in a row.  So they want him to refine his defense at SS but yet play him at another position.  It appears they are trying to develop another utility player, you can never have enough of them.

[arby58]

7 hours ago, Elite Benchwarmer said:

The parallel isn't perfect, but get these young prospects some big league time = 1981.  Next year they can be season-long starters = 1982.

In the strike shortened 1981 season, the Twins went 41-68, which would equate to 61-101 over a 162 game season. In 1982, they went 60-102. Be careful what you wish for.

This Twins team isn't going to lose 102 games.

[Major League Ready]

15 hours ago, karcherd said:

He will have no trade value unless he hits .400 or better.  He was signed to a minor league deal, a couple of months of moderate success is not going to turn him into a valued trade chip.  Let's not make this move into more than it is.

This is not a guy that was a fringe player.  The man was an all-star and not long ago.  If he comes up and hits above league average, he will have value given his defensive versatility.  It won't be a blue-chip prospect but they can a decent prospect for him. 

[karcherd]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

This is not a guy that was a fringe player.  The man was an all-star and not long ago.  If he comes up and hits above league average, he will have value given his defensive versatility.  It won't be a blue-chip prospect but they can a decent prospect for him. 

We are not talking about the 2023 Arcia, he has fallen off greatly the last two years.  He couldn't even get more than a minor league deal this offseason and couldn't beat out Gray in spring training.  He is very much on the downside of his career and will not have trade value, that is a pipe dream.

[karcherd]

10 hours ago, arby58 said:

In the strike shortened 1981 season, the Twins went 41-68, which would equate to 61-101 over a 162 game season. In 1982, they went 60-102. Be careful what you wish for.

This Twins team isn't going to lose 102 games.

No but they will lose between 75 and 85 games.  That is playing with a fair number of AAAA players and vets that will not be here next year.  So why not rip off the band aid, even if you lose 10 more games, you are gaining more information about your team and where you are at for next year.  Sometimes you have to take a step back to move forward.

[arby58]

28 minutes ago, karcherd said:

No but they will lose between 75 and 85 games.  That is playing with a fair number of AAAA players and vets that will not be here next year.  So why not rip off the band aid, even if you lose 10 more games, you are gaining more information about your team and where you are at for next year.  Sometimes you have to take a step back to move forward.

If they only lose 75 games, they will be in the play-offs - they might make it if they lose 81. They have plenty of their key AAA players already getting MLB exposure (Prielipp, Rojas, Adams) not to mention Abel and Bradley.  Given that the two most likley additional call ups (Jenkins and Emma) are injured, I'm not sure what else you would want them to do. I expect both will make it up before the end of the year. I suppose you could make the case for older players (Fedko, Sabato), but they're both 27 and seem like more of the same AAAA types.

That only really leaves Culpepper, and he has only just now gotten a taste of AAA. I think it is right to keep him there for now. He has done ok at that level but not banging the door down for a promotion.

[karcherd]

38 minutes ago, arby58 said:

If they only lose 75 games, they will be in the play-offs - they might make it if they lose 81. They have plenty of their key AAA players already getting MLB exposure (Prielipp, Rojas, Adams) not to mention Abel and Bradley.  Given that the two most likley additional call ups (Jenkins and Emma) are injured, I'm not sure what else you would want them to do. I expect both will make it up before the end of the year. I suppose you could make the case for older players (Fedko, Sabato), but they're both 27 and seem like more of the same AAAA types.

That only really leaves Culpepper, and he has only just now gotten a taste of AAA. I think it is right to keep him there for now. He has done ok at that level but not banging the door down for a promotion.

If we make the playoffs, we will be one and done.  I would like this team do something that sets up for more sustained success.  I don't want any more innings given to Garcia or Banda at this point and don't keep churning thru the waiver wire for scrap heap for relievers.  Even though they may have found something in Gomez.  I also don't want AB's going to Gray, Arcia, Kreidler, Outman or Clemens on a regular basis.  Yes Sabato and Fedko are getting older but are they late bloomers, let's find out what you have.  Bring up Culpepper, I would even consider Ross at this point.

I am not convinced when healthy Emma and Jenkins will be up here.  Emma outplayed Outman in spring training and he was sent down. 

And stop with the bulk reliever nonsense in AAA, develop starters and relievers.  Start this now, so you know where your holes are for next year and you don't have to go dumpster diving next offseason.

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, karcherd said:

We are not talking about the 2023 Arcia, he has fallen off greatly the last two years.  He couldn't even get more than a minor league deal this offseason and couldn't beat out Gray in spring training.  He is very much on the downside of his career and will not have trade value, that is a pipe dream.

There are many examples of players that fell off the map for a couple years.  Do you think teams will just ignore his actual results if he performs well in his return to the ML level?  I doubt they will be too concerned that he was bad last year if he's good this year, especially on a two-month rental.

[karcherd]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

There are many examples of players that fell off the map for a couple years.  Do you think teams will just ignore his actual results if he performs well in his return to the ML level?  I doubt they will be too concerned that he was bad last year if he's good this year, especially on a two-month rental.

He has only had one good year since 2017 and he did make the all star team in 2023,. So it has actually been two down years.  He could not get one team to give him a major league deal even at a minimum salary.  I think teams have already shown how they value him.  I am not even sure what kind of playing time he will get with the Twins.  He didn't even start at short yesterday for Lee.  A contending team is not going to look at him as a missing piece. People on this board like to get excited about fringe players, I would love to see some players that can contribute on a regular basis.

[Major League Ready]

4 minutes ago, karcherd said:

He has only had one good year since 2017 and he did make the all star team in 2023,. So it has actually been two down years.  He could not get one team to give him a major league deal even at a minimum salary.  I think teams have already shown how they value him.  I am not even sure what kind of playing time he will get with the Twins.  He didn't even start at short yesterday for Lee.  A contending team is not going to look at him as a missing piece. People on this board like to get excited about fringe players, I would love to see some players that can contribute on a regular basis.

It's a free country.  Think whatever you want to think.  I think, if he's playing great, teams will be quite satisfied to have that version of good.  Are they going to say, he has only been good in one other season so let's ignore how he's playing right before eyes?  Maybe he will go back to sucking.  Maybe the entire premise that he may play well is far-fetched but if he plays well that will drive his value IMO.

[karcherd]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

It's a free country.  Think whatever you want to think.  I think, if he's playing great, teams will be quite satisfied to have that version of good.  Are they going to say, he has only been good in one other season so let's ignore how he's playing right before eyes?

You are assuming, he will play well.  He couldn't even start over Kreidler yesterday.  So I think the Twins are already showing their level of belief in him.

[Major League Ready]

Just now, karcherd said:

You are assuming, he will play well.  He couldn't even start over Kreidler yesterday.  So I think the Twins are already showing their level of belief in him.

I am not assuming anything, I said "if he plays well".  I even said maybe it's far-fetched.  He never hit anywhere near this level in Milb.  IDK how he is going to hit which is why I qualified my statement.  So, no, I am not assuming anything.   You are assuming he won't play well.   I am suggesting there is a chance. 

[NYCTK]

16 hours ago, karcherd said:

Culpepper is at 3B again tonight, second game in a row.  So they want him to refine his defense at SS but yet play him at another position.  It appears they are trying to develop another utility player, you can never have enough of them.

Death, Taxes, and TwinsDaily commentators complaining about baseball players moving around the diamond. 

 

11 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

This is not a guy that was a fringe player. 

IDK man. An 11 year veteran that's accumulated under 4.0 WAR seems the exact definition of a fringe player. 

Best case scenario, he lights the world on fire and a team trades for him and returns...a low A SP that was an undrafted free agent but put together 10 pretty good starts, in large part thanks to the fact he's 3 years older than his competition. 

There's no need to pretend as if he would return anything of any value. 

[karcherd]

11 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Death, Taxes, and TwinsDaily commentators complaining about baseball players moving around the diamond. 

I guess you could just put all the names of your roster on a slip of paper and put them in a hat.  Then pull a name out for each position.  Buxton should be able to catch or even play 2B since it is no big deal to move players around.

[NYCTK]

15 minutes ago, karcherd said:

I guess you could just put all the names of your roster on a slip of paper and put them in a hat.  Then pull a name out for each position.  Buxton should be able to catch or even play 2B since it is no big deal to move players around.

I assure you, a SS playing 3B in an effort to give him more opportunity to break into the majors is not a bad thing. 

The Twins aren't making him a utility infielder.

The player they seem to be turning into a utility player is actually Kyler Fedko, which is entirely appropriate.