Bench Role, DFAd, or St. Paul: Analytically Breaking Down Tristan Gray’s Player Profile

[Cody Schoenmann]

Acquired from the Boston Red Sox in mid-January for catching prospect Nate Baez, Tristan Gray joined his third organization in two months, becoming a member of the Minnesota Twins. The 29-year-old enters the fold, competing with Ryan Kreidler and Orlando Arcia to become the club’s backup shortstop behind Brooks Lee. How does Gray compare to Kreidler and Arcia? Is he the favorite to win the competition? Let’s take a look.

 

Tristan Gray’s Batting Metrics
The left-handed infielder’s hitting metrics have been extremely volatile over his three-season major league career. Over only 122 plate appearances, Gray has hit a combined .207/.264/.369 with four home runs and a 76 wRC+. His overall numbers are largely the product of volatility, evidenced by him generating a 285 wRC+ over 5 plate appearances with Tampa in 2023 and a 6 wRC+ over 31 plate appearances between Miami and Oakland in 2024. However, in his longest stretch in the majors with Tampa last season, Gray hit .231/.282/.410 with three home runs and an 89 wRC+ over 86 plate appearances. Despite struggling to get on base, the 29-year-old was serviceable in his first extended run in the majors, with his underlying metrics supporting that suggestion.

 

Interestingly, Gray sported reverse splits last season, generating a 207 wRC+ over 23 plate appearances against southpaws compared to a 45 wRC+ over 63 plate appearances against righties. His reverse splits remain consistent with his small 2024 sample. Again, it would be negligent to make concrete claims when assessing 122 plate appearances. However, if we are to believe he is servicable against left-handed pitching while likely performing better against right-handed hitting with more opportunities, Gray could be the most platoon-proof option of the trio, potentially giving him an upper hand over Kreidler and Arcia.

 

As noted earlier, Gray is by no means a Moneyball darling, struggling to reach base. He also sported an alarming 31.9% whiff rate last season. Yet, when he made contact last season, he hit the ball hard, sporting elite bat speed, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. Gray’s underlying metrics closely mirror Kody Clemens’s, who underwent an unexpected power surge with Minnesota last season. It would be unfair to expect Gray to hit 19 home runs next season. Yet, he could provide similar output to Clemens in 2026 if his 2025 metrics carry over.

 

Tristan Gray’s Defensive Skillset
Gray spent meaningful time at shortstop last season, collecting 62 innings at the position. He also mixed in at the other three infield positions, playing 80 innings at second base, 33 innings at third base, and 19 innings at first base. The former Ray graded out as average or slightly below average at third, second, and first. Yet, he generated 1 Outs Above Average (OAA) at shortstop, meaning he was slightly above-average at the position. Admittedly, Gray is likely a better defensive shortstop than Lee. Kreidler and Arcia likely are, too.

 

Lee is going to be the primary starter at the position, regardless. Still, Gray could play the position at an average-to-above-average rate, meaning he could fill in at the position on Lee’s days off or if he sustained a long-term injury or significant performance concerns. Gray could also serve as Luke Keaschall’s backup at second base, Royce Lewis’s backup at third, and sprinkle in at first base alongside Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, and Clemens, providing unrestrained utility to the Twins' infield.

 

What Should Tristan Gray’s Role Be in 2026?
Given his encouraging performance at the plate last season and defensive flexibility, Gray could have the inside track on winning the backup shortstop role over Kreidler and Arcia, who are both profoundly subpar hitters. Having one minor league option remaining, Minnesota could option Gray to Triple-A St. Paul and reward Kreidler or Arcia the bench spot. That said, given that Minnesota targeted Gray and handed him a 40-man roster spot (Kreidler also has a 40-man roster spot; Arica doesn’t), signs point toward the organization entering Spring Training with Gray being the favorite to win the role.

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[rdehring]

Who?  The Twins entire infield is a disaster.  Keaschall should be solid to very good at second and Lewis, if healthy and the Lewis of old could be special at third.  The other two spots both need a ton of help, especially while playing in the field.

[Over The Hill Again]

Oddly Gray generates the most excitement (?) for me when considering the 3 possibilities if you can squint and see a Kody Clemens type of outcome with passable play at SS 

[DarrenPS]

I mean none of them are ideal for a bench spot, I don't even know how Kreidler is still on the 40 man, but due to his underlying metrics I would rather Gray get the first shot over the other current options as the bench guy

[TJSweens]

33 minutes ago, Over The Hill Again said:

Oddly Gray generates the most excitement (?) for me when considering the 3 possibilities if you can squint and see a Kody Clemens type of outcome with passable play at SS 

I wouldn't say generates the most excitement. More like causes the smallest gag reflex. Is our roster really that bad that this an intriguing spring training topic.

[OregonTwinsFan]

All of the backup shortstop options stink.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Gray is interesting, in that he seems to have some potential to hit enough not to be an offensive black hole for a utility guy, and that raises the floor of the bench. However, I remember talk when the Twins picked up Kreidler that he was capable of playing both SS and CF (he's currently listed as an outfielder on the official team roster.) If they decide in spring training that Kreidler can back up both spots, then I think he starts the year in the backup SS gig. It makes for an efficient use of a bench spot and gives them more flexibility to use corner-only (or corner-mostly) guys like Roden, Martin, Larnach, et al.

 

[Fred]

44 minutes ago, TJSweens said:

I wouldn't say generates the most excitement. More like causes the smallest gag reflex. Is our roster really that bad that this an intriguing spring training topic.

In the finest example of "sour grapes", I have decided not to care if they win 60 or 160 games. I will watch for the diving catches, the throw-out at the plate, etc. I absolutely ached for the Ishbias to buy out the Pohlads, because I had the impression they would treat the Twins as a hobby, not as a business, and wouldn't care as much about making money on their investment as they would about going after a World Series. That was my impression, anyway.  And, yes, the roster is that bad.

[bean5302]

In order to get reliable results for defensive metrics, you'd probably want
1200 innings for the now defunct UZR/150
2400 innings for OAA
3000 innings for DRS

60 innings is literally nothing. Not even a drop in the bucket to understand defensive metrics the stat sites have gravited towards. OAA and especially DRS are wildly unstable metrics.

Likewise, sample sizes under 200 plate appearances are highly volatile as BABIP only starts to stabilize after that point, and just a couple lucky plate apperance results and swing things out of proporation under 100 PA. 

At 57 PA, 3 extra hits with 1 HR means the difference between:
.200/.298/.380 OPS .678 wRC+ 85
and
.260/.351/.500 OPS .851 wRC+ 135

There's very little to take away from Gray's SSSS at the MLB level. It's worth noting he's playing in his age 30 season and he's been basically below average at AAA for 5 straight years. He's DFA stuff.

[DJL44]

When they acquired him, I wondered why they wanted another Kody Clemens on the roster. Then I looked at the shape of the roster and realized that, sadly, a second Kody Clemens was useful.

I am guessing he starts the season in St. Paul and is the first infielder called up if there is an injury.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, OregonTwinsFan said:

All of the backup shortstop options stink.

All the starting shortstop options also stink.

[bean5302]

40 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

All the starting shortstop options also stink.

I would not be surprised if Austin Martin was a better SS option than Tristan Gray :puke

[Dawgzilla]

His role????  Twins beer barker for Miller Lt sales in stands!  Start limbering up your back and vocal cords....laaaa la llama....cold beer here...ummm...lalla lllaalla...cold beer!😉

[AceWrigley]

And . . . he pitched an inning at Charlotte last year with an ERA of 0.00.

And in other news . . . I went to look at getting a new Mercedes today. After realizing that driving it would probably require a 3 week training course to operate the thing I said forget it. I think a car company that offered a model with just power steering and power brakes to start might be on to something.

[RaoulDuke]

11 hours ago, OregonTwinsFan said:

All of the backup shortstop options stink.

All of the shortstop options stink.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

22 hours ago, bean5302 said:

There's very little to take away from Gray's SSSS at the MLB level. It's worth noting he's playing in his age 30 season and he's been basically below average at AAA for 5 straight years. He's DFA stuff.

Not a huge disagreement here, but considering there isn't much depth in MiLB, there is no reason for the DFA, especially if he is a clubhouse guy.  I would expect AAA depth right now, with some possible short-term, injury replacement stints.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Not a huge disagreement here, but considering there isn't much depth in MiLB, there is no reason for the DFA, especially if he is a clubhouse guy.  I would expect AAA depth right now, with some possible short-term, injury replacement stints.

I think DFA type is his player profile. Like Ryan Fitzgerald or Mickey Gasper types. I think the Twins could just as easily replace him with another DFA/waiver wire player who can cover SS or potentially, if Arcia looks better in Spring Training. He's just not a guy the Twins really need to be worried about losing if they have another DFA-type player option.

Gray's MiLB shortstop numbers look passable to me (RF/9).