Marquis/Liriano trends

[greengoblinrulz]

The end of Gardy is near which means the end of Rick Anderson is also.

How much of their success leaving MN has to do w/'change of scenery', which I attribute to leaving Andy's reign.

 

Marquis complained openly about Anderson trying to change his game speed/mound plan to comply with the 'Twins Way' but since leaving MN

34 starts 15W 11L 3.89ERA 206 IP 197h 155K 93bb 32hr

I, for one, can see that pitching in the NL & Petco Park can help a pitcher but Marquis is much better on the road (3.79 ERA) than home (3.97ERA) with the Padres.

I hated the Marquis signing like most, but these numbers show there was something their that MN couldnt get out of him.

 

Most of us also were completely fed up with Frankie & had NO problem getting rid of him for absolutely nothing. His ChiSox numbers were no different but this year with a new pitching coach/attitude

12st 9W 3L 2.00ERA 76.2 IP 63h 80k 28bb 3hr

Frankie's main change is now bringing his hands aboce his head (for better balance)....something the Twins DO NOT want their pitchers to do (philosiphy) as Ive heard it discussed in interviews.

 

I want a managerial change (I do think Gardy is an above average mgr who'll get a shot as soon as he wants it) more to just change our pitching coach & team philosiphy of pitching (maybe someone who can handle a 12 man staff??).

[TheLeviathan]

Let's see how Frankie's arm holds out now that he is back on the "slider, slider, slider, several more sliders" system of pitching.

 

He did that here once too, didn't end well. So I can't put that on organizational philosophy until he actually does it consistently with good results and health.

[nicksaviking]

Nice post. I actually just wondered in the Fire Gardy thread about getting feedback from former pitchers to find out why their K numbers decrease in a Twins uniform. I had not heard this complaint from Marquis before and had not seen Liriano's new approach analyzed.

[ThePuck]

Let's see how Frankie's arm holds out now that he is back on the "slider, slider, slider, several more sliders" system of pitching.

 

He did that here once too, didn't end well. So I can't put that on organizational philosophy until he actually does it consistently with good results and health.

 

For the most part, I don't buy into the whole idea of saying 'hey look, after X many years this former Twin is doing well.' Liriano wasn't doing well for us, nor had he for awhile. A team can only wait so long. Same thing with Gomez.

 

Hardy is a bit different because here's a guy who had established himself as a pretty darn good player, especially defensively, and we let him go after one season (on Gardy's request). If there was a player who deserved a bit more time, it was him.

 

Overall though, I don't assume that if player X had stayed, he would have done as well for us as he ended up doing elsewhere. If they do, good for them, but it's hard for me to knock the FO for Gomez, Dickey, Liriano.

[diehardtwinsfan]

You'll have to forgive me, but I don't remember ever hearing Marquis complain openly about the Twins trying to change him. Likewise, missing all of ST and then getting thrust immediately into the rotation certainly had something to do with it too.

 

Your point with Liriano may be a bit better. He clearly wasn't going to succeed in Minnesota.

[Oldgoat_MN]

For the most part, I don't buy into the whole idea of saying 'hey look, after X many years this former Twin is doing well.' Liriano wasn't doing well for us, nor had he for awhile. A team can only wait so long. Same thing with Gomez.

 

Hardy is a bit different because here's a guy who had established himself as a pretty darn good player, especially defensively, and we let him go after one season (on Gardy's request). If there was a player who deserved a bit more time, it was him.

 

Overall though, I don't assume that if player X had stayed, he would have done as well for us as he ended up doing elsewhere. If they do, good for them, but it's hard for me to knock the FO for Gomez, Dickey, Liriano.

 

It appears to me that there may be something is amiss in the Twins coaching staff. I understand Dickey. With Gomez there was clearly talent there that it took someone else to nurture.

Maybe Anderson, et al, have been great. We will never know how the past would have been different.

 

My questions: are there more Twins who left MN and had much poorer results elsewhere or are there more Twins who left here and had excellent seasons?

How many?

 

Do players leave their former teams, come to MN and suddenly thrive?

How many?

 

Please leave examples. Double spaced. You have 2 hours. Go.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Just saw data from a post by jokin on another thread:

 

Jason Marquis 3.28 K/9 Twins 7.6 K/9 Padres

Jesse Crain 6.22 K/9 Twins 10.56 K/9 Sox

Kyle Lohse 5.01 K/9 Twins 5.60 K/9 Since traded

RA Dickey 5.88 K/9 Twins 6.83 K/9 Since traded

Kevin Slowey 6.67 K/9 Twins 7.20 K/9 Marlins

Matt Guerrier 5.91 K/9 Twins 6.53 K/9 Dodgers

Matt Garza 7.11 K/9 Twins 7.68 K/9 Since traded

 

The trends are all negative, but I'm not sure they are statistically significant. What if the question is asked in reverse, how much does a pitcher's K/9 drop after joining the Twins?---

 

Vance Worley 4.62 K/9 Twins 7.71 K/9 Phillies

Kevin Correia 5.04 K/9 Twins 6.04 K/9 before Twins

Mike Pelfrey 4.90 K/9 Twins 5.08 K/9 before Twins

 

Probably the National League effect to a great extent.

 

I'll try to get permission from jokin some other time.

(the guy can't double space for s**t)

[ThePuck]

It appears to me that there may be something is amiss in the Twins coaching staff. I understand Dickey. With Gomez there was clearly talent there that it took someone else to nurture.

Maybe Anderson, et al, have been great. We will never know how the past would have been different.

 

My questions: are there more Twins who left MN and had much poorer results elsewhere or are there more Twins who left here and had excellent seasons?

How many?

 

Do players leave their former teams, come to MN and suddenly thrive?

How many?

 

Please leave examples. Double spaced. You have 2 hours. Go.

 

Yeah, but how long did it take for Gomez to get nurtured? This is year seven of his career, his fourth year away from us. he finally clicks and it's solely

 

Now, believe me, I'm not letting the coaching off the hook and I'm not defending them, I'm saying if it doesn't seem like a player is working out for us, from a FO standpoint, the FO needs to do something about it. That's all. I'm all for a new pitching coach, I was glad to see Vavra released for him hitting coach duties, but still. Some of the blame has to fall on the players themselves.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Yeah, but how long did it take for Gomez to get nurtured? This is year seven of his career, his fourth year away from us. he finally clicks and it's solely

 

Now, believe me, I'm not letting the coaching off the hook and I'm not defending them, I'm saying if it doesn't seem like a player is working out for us, from a FO standpoint, the FO needs to do something about it. That's all. I'm all for a new pitching coach, I was glad to see Vavra released for him hitting coach duties, but still. Some of the blame has to fall on the players themselves.

 

Absolutely no argument from me, ThePuck. And no question Gomez had some issues that only some maturity were going to help.

 

While jokin questions the statistical significance of the data he had, it does seem to be a pretty consistent trend.

[Dman]

It's not like they let Gomez go for nothing. They got Hardy in return. Unfortunately they didn't get much for Hardy.

 

Gardy seemed to love Go,Go but they couldn't seem to stop him from swinging at pitches low and away. I thought they had given him long enough to improve offensively.

 

Everyone loved his defense and speed when he could get on base but his 220 batting average didn't want to budge. I thought the trade they made was good until they got rid of Hardy right away.

[Riverbrian]

One Size does not fit all.

 

I think it's quite possible that some players don't respond to Andy or Gardy and may respond to others and Vice Versa.

 

Some players can respond to everyone and some players can respond to nobody.

 

You won't know until they are actually working together.

 

If there was any reason to believe that Gardy or Andy ruin players at a decent frequency. They would have been gone a long time ago.

 

The baseball people who run our club can at least handle basic evaluation.

[DaveW]

LOL Marquis

[ThePuck]

One Size does not fit all.

 

I think it's quite possible that some players don't respond to Andy or Gardy and may respond to others and Vice Versa.

 

Some players can respond to everyone and some players can respond to nobody.

 

You won't know until they are actually working together.

 

If there was any reason to believe that Gardy or Andy ruin players at a decent frequency. They would have been gone a long time ago.

 

The baseball people who run our club can at least handle basic evaluation.

 

Yeah, in the end, the fact that players get better later in their career with another team is hardly unique to the Twins. Again, not to excuse the coaching, because it's a factor, but it's not exclusively a Twins issue.

[Danchat]

Does anyone simply think it's because we tell our pitchers not to throw strikeouts and the cardinal sin is walking batters? Anderson needs to go, which means Gardy too...

[Scheherezade]

Marquis' current xFIP in 2013 is 4.78 compared to 4.03 in 2012.

[ericchri]

Pavano? Probably not his best season, but he was pretty good for a couple years returning to earlier form before injuries set in again. I can't think of many starters we've had in the Gardy era that began with other teams. Sam Deduno? Non-starting pitchers, Josh Willingham had his best season late in his career with Minnesota. Burton seems to fit the mold of improving with the Twins.

 

I'm honestly hard-pressed to think of a whole lot of guys we brought over from other teams. Orlandos Cabrera and Hudson certainly didn't seem to get worse with us. Rauch seemed to be a little better with us than he had been previously, but I'm too lazy to verify this by looking up his numbers. Matt Capps stayed about the same, in spite of being overrated before getting here.

 

Mostly I just cemented in my own mind that the Twins are very devoted to promoting from within, though I'm sure there are lots of people I'm forgetting. It doesn't feel like there's a lot of evidence that the Twins somehow ruin players when they get here.

[Siehbiscuit]

It is absolutely coaching, but also the front office. I have not had the luxury of ever coaching baseball (higher than local little league stuff), but I have spent 8 years coaching high school and college basketball. IMO, coaching is coaching. Set aside the X's and O's and even techniques for a minute. Players have to be placed and played to their strengths and to their personalities. If the Twins Way is to have a certain approach at the plate (see Morneau and Mauer), then why do they trade away guys like Garza for Delmon Young? Or have Carlos Gomez be the centerpiece of a Johan trade? Delmon is Delmon, everyone (BA, ESPN, etc) thought he was going to be a star, but his free-swinging ways don't fit our organizational philosophy. Gomez the same thing. These guys were trying to be converted at the ML level, not at the time they were drafted or signed three and four years prior. They had to learn this new "way" on the fly and it was a square peg in a round hole.

[Siehbiscuit]

Name one player or pitcher that Gardenhire or Anderson have developed into a great player...

 

???

[The Wise One]

Name one player or pitcher that Gardenhire or Anderson have developed into a great player...

 

???

 

what is your criteria to judge. Santan, Mauer and Morneau all did pretty good under Gardy

[launchingthrees]

Just saw data from a post by jokin on another thread:

 

 

Wow. This is insane. How does Anderson have a job with these results?

[jorgenswest]

On jokin data in post #7

 

This context should be added. K/9 rate.

 

2008 6.8

2011 7.1

2013 7.5

 

Jokin also pointed out the NL/AL flip will change strike out rates.

 

The strike out rate has been increasing. The cause is unknown but increases coincide with the pitch fx system. Umpires may be more conscious of the strike zone and call more strikes. The system showed teams which catchers were able to get more strikes and helped catchers to see what kinds of strikes they were not getting. Teams like the Yankees and Rays are willing to trade offense from catchers to get those extra strikes.

 

I do think the Twins would benefit from a new staff. They need to look at teams that have really made changes in the pitching. Look at the Pirates. How are they doing it? They have made huge gains with the strike zone with Russell Martin. Searage, their pitching coach, has really made an impact. Cuban Euclides Rojas is the Pirate bullpen coach. I wonder if he might be a candidate for a pitching coach job.

[Kobs]

Let's see how Frankie's arm holds out now that he is back on the "slider, slider, slider, several more sliders" system of pitching.

 

He did that here once too, didn't end well. So I can't put that on organizational philosophy until he actually does it consistently with good results and health.

 

Changing his approach was a terrible idea. So what if he gets hurt again? He has little value if he's not throwing sliders often. It's like telling a 100 meter guy to slow down when he competes because he is prone to hamstring injuries.

[jokin]

On joking data in post #7

 

This context should be added. K/9 rate.

 

2008 6.8

2011 7.1

2013 7.5

 

Jokin also pointed out the NL/AL flip will change strike out rates.

 

The strike out rate has been increasing. The cause is unknown but increases coincide with the pitch fx system. Umpires may be more conscious of the strike zone and call more strikes. The system showed teams which catchers were able to get more strikes and helped catchers to see what kinds of strikes they were not getting. Teams like the Yankees and Rays are willing to trade offense from catchers to get those extra strikes.

 

I do think the Twins would benefit from a new staff. They need to look at teams that have really made changes in the pitching. Look at the Pirates. How are they doing it? They have made huge gains with the strike zone with Russell Martin. Searage, their pitching coach, has really made an impact. Cuban Euclides Rojas is the Pirate bullpen coach. I wonder if he might be a candidate for a pitching coach job.

 

The Pirates pitching coaches have been incredibly effective in getting results. Getting career-best type numbers from all types of pitchers: journeyman-types (Jason Grilli), more suspect than prospect types (Jeff Locke), broken down and highly expendable -types (Mark Melancon), rookies (Gerrit Cole, Justin Wilson), obscure types (Jeanmar Gomez), and with talented, but historical underperformers (AJ Burnett/Francisco Liriano).

 

Interestingly, while all of the above are having years at or near peak performance, not all of them are showing a peak year in K/9 rates.

 

I've already called for it, hire the pitching coaches.

[old nurse]

The Pirates pitching coaches have been incredibly effective in getting results. Getting career-best type numbers from all types of pitchers: journeyman-types (Jason Grilli), more suspect than prospect types (Jeff Locke), broken down and highly expendable -types (Mark Melancon), rookies (Gerrit Cole, Justin Wilson), obscure types (Jeanmar Gomez), and with talented, but historical underperformers (AJ Burnett/Francisco Liriano).

 

Interestingly, while all of the above are having years at or near peak performance, not all of them are showing a peak year in K/9 rates.

 

I've already called for it, hire the pitching coaches.

 

They did wonders for Correia

[jokin]

They did wonders for Correia

 

Yes, that is true. His career-high GB rate and 4.21 ERA (career ERA 4.60)- both achieved in 2012 with the Pirates- were why Terry Ryan was able to publicly say that his scouts had assured him that Correia was "better than his career numbers" indicated.

[ThePuck]

Yes, that is true. His career-high GB rate and 4.21 ERA (career ERA 4.60)- both achieved in 2012 with the Pirates- were why Terry Ryan was able to publicly say the his scouts had assured him that Correia was "better than his career numbers" indicated.

 

Anyone taking bets his ERA end up near if not over 5.00 by the end of the year?

[jokin]

Anyone taking bets his ERA end up near if not over 5.00 by the end of the year?

 

I'll take the "Over".

[The Wise One]

The Pirates pitching coaches have been incredibly effective in getting results. Getting career-best type numbers from all types of pitchers: journeyman-types (Jason Grilli), more suspect than prospect types (Jeff Locke), broken down and highly expendable -types (Mark Melancon), rookies (Gerrit Cole, Justin Wilson), obscure types (Jeanmar Gomez), and with talented, but historical underperformers (AJ Burnett/Francisco Liriano).

 

Interestingly, while all of the above are having years at or near peak performance, not all of them are showing a peak year in K/9 rates.

 

I've already called for it, hire the pitching coaches.

 

So the number 9 prospect in the International League last year by Baseball America is considered a suspect and not a prospect. Those people at Baseball America>>>>>>>>>>>>