Hicks' march toward the Mendoza

[jorgenswest]

I just consulted Baseball-reference. They have both Aaron Hicks and Clete Thomas with a positive dWAR of 0.3. I agree with your opening sentence- defensive stats are horrid, this is clear evidence that BR's d-stats are "horrider".

 

I don't see the 0.3. I see 1.3 for Hicks on his page.

 

I also see a Defensive Runs Saved of 10 from BIS. For comparison, this metric had an even odd correlation of .59 which shows more reliability the ERA and batting average and approaching OPS.

 

The 10 drs is second among center fielders between Carlos Gomez and Andrew McCutcheon.

[Craig Arko]

I actually think Hicks is a pretty good CF. The thing he needs to learn to improve is where to position himself for individual opposing hitters. This is part coaching and part getting experience against the opponents he sees. Half of that can come in AAA, but the other half, not so much.

 

As far as the original question, I'll be real happy with .200 by the break. After that it will be interesting to see where Mastroianni is with his rehab.

[DaveW]

Mastro isn't going to take the job from Hicks, Mastro is and will continue to be a 4th OF (solid though)

 

If the Twins didn't send Hicks down after his horrible start, they are going to most likely stick with him for the full season. Yeah, the Super 2 thing would suck, but it wouldn't be a huge deal if they avoid that with Buxton, Sano, Gibson, Arcia etc

[Brock Beauchamp]

But with his defensive issues in center and his continuing awful contact rate vs RHP, a problem which plagued him throughout most of his minor league career, it's not too early to mention the possibility that he may top out as less than a star, or even average, CF or corner OF.

 

Actually, I think it is a little early to suggest that Hicks will end up as a league average CF.

 

His defense has been spotty, for sure... but given his speed and arm, he should be, at minimum, a league average defender.

 

On the other hand, the average AL OPS for CF is .733. Toss out Hicks' awful April and he's somewhere just north of a .720 OPS in May/June/July.

 

The guy has all of 230 PAs in his career after skipping a level. He's 23 years old. It's a bit premature to think that his progression is going to be limited to roughly .010 OPS as he learns the league, gets his feet under him, and continues to age toward the prime age 26-27 seasons.

 

Given his rapid improvement in just two months, I think it will be a pretty big disappointment if he stalls out completely and never manages to OPS much higher than .750, which is still above average for a CF.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If the Twins didn't send Hicks down after his horrible start, they are going to most likely stick with him for the full season. Yeah, the Super 2 thing would suck, but it wouldn't be a huge deal if they avoid that with Buxton, Sano, Gibson, Arcia etc

 

Yeah, there's no reason to send him down at this point. In the past 2 1/2 months, he's been pretty close to league average with the bat.

 

I was all for giving him more time in AAA to shake off the rust but it doesn't appear that he needed it. So why send him down now? He's obviously learning at the MLB level. Don't mess with that progression. If he stalls out and struggles, then consider a demotion.

[jay]

In 140 ABs since April (SSS Alert!!), Hicks is at a .724 OPS. The MLB CF average? .726

 

It's hard not to envision him as at least a league-average contributor either at CF or even LF when Buxton is ready (MLB LF average - .737). I fully believe that an outfield of Hicks-Buxton-Arcia would be above average both offensively and defensively.

[DaveW]

IIRC nobody was complaining when Span was CF, his last four seasons for the Twins... .699 OPS

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't get it but it's how things play out on message boards. No matter how many times we go through these same arguments over young players, there will still be people who cast judgment after 200 PAs at the beginning of a guy's career. It's maddening, really.

 

See Kubel, Jason... Cuddyer, Michael... Bartlett, Jason... Morneau, Justin... Young, Delmon...

 

One of those guys was a bust but I heard multiple people calling for the heads of every guy on that list at one point or another.

 

Honestly, it makes me want to scream.

 

Interestingly enough, everyone on that list except maybe Morneau got jerked around quite a bit by Gardy... There were some clamoring that those guys should be playing every day.

[chopper0080]

To be honest, I am pretty happy with where Arcia, Hicks, Dozier and Plouffe are at this point. Sure I was hoping for better, but all seem to be improving and making more of an impact in games. As they continue to work and gain more experience in the league, I expect they will continue to develop into future contributors to the roster. Lord knows it would be a welcome change to have legitimate roster questions once our big name prospects finally are up.

[stringer bell]

Mastro isn't going to take the job from Hicks, Mastro is and will continue to be a 4th OF (solid though)

 

If the Twins didn't send Hicks down after his horrible start, they are going to most likely stick with him for the full season. Yeah, the Super 2 thing would suck, but it wouldn't be a huge deal if they avoid that with Buxton, Sano, Gibson, Arcia etc

Nothing to do with Super 2. Everything to do with walking after exactly six years of service. Meanwhile Arcia will not be a free agent until he completes his seventh season.

[DaveW]

Nothing to do with Super 2. Everything to do with walking after exactly six years of service. Meanwhile Arcia will not be a free agent until he completes his seventh season.

Meh, just lock him up in a couple years.

[LaBombo]

Actually, I think it is a little early to suggest that Hicks will end up as a league average CF.

Given the success rate of 1st round MLB draft picks, Hicks topping out as no better than a league-average CF was a statistically sound bet on the day he was drafted.

 

And given that modest success rate, getting a league-average CF with a 14th overall pick is a big win for the organization. Anything else is pure gravy, even for a franchise that can no longer count itself among the league's economically disadvantaged underdogs.

 

With respect to using OPS to gauge Hicksie's progress, it seems like that instrument is a little too blunt. It makes his May (.707) and June (.708) look identical, but they were two very different months.

 

His May OPS was a product of a very strange combo platter. The slash line alone (.202/.250/.457) is pretty improbable, and the fact that he managed even modest productivity with the misfortune of a .200 BAPIP borders on the miraculous.

 

June was even stranger. He slashed .280/.308/.400, largely on the strength of a very high .389 BAPIP, which he managed despite his line drive rate sinking to just 11%. That's dangerously close to just half of the league average of 19%. His K rate rose to 25%, and he lost about half his walk rate for the 2nd straight month (13.3%/ 6.0%/3.6% BB rate in April/May/June).

 

So even allowing for the arbitrary, small-sample nature of month-by-month trend analysis, there just doesn't seem to be very strong evidence of real progress here.

 

Instead, it looks like a young man who's all over the map because he's still learning how to hit. It would be nice if the Twins would let him learn a bit more in the low-stress environment of Rochester, where he can concentrate on developing his strengths, not hiding his weaknesses.

[blairpaul715]

Ok, he's been at about a .700 OPS for a little while now. Doesn't make up for his horrible April. If he can improve his defense he can be serviceable. I just have some serious doubts that he can hit as a LH batter. Hope he can turn it around be able to make it as a 4th OF when Buxton comes up.

 

I will be VERY surprised if he is only a 4th outfielder, he may not be a star, but I think he will be better than both Span and Revere.

[blairpaul715]

[quote name=jokin;135925

 

And hopefully' date=' he'll be the answer at leadoff starting next season, and holding it down competently until Buxton arrives to take that spot in the batting order.[/quote]

 

I don't expect in a few yrs that either Buxton or Hicks will be lead off hitters, I think we will still be looking for that guy. I think with Buxton and Hicks power potential, you will see them hitting in the 2-3-4-5 spots. I foresee at some point if all goes well, unknown at leadoff, Hicks batting second, Mauer 3rd, Sano 4th, Buxton 5th. Now both Buxton and Hicks can or could lead off, I am not saying they cant, but I ideally like them down just a bit.

[blairpaul715]

I haven't watched enough games to be able to comment authoritatively on his defense, other than to see I have seen some spectacular plays. I also know that some of those spectacular plays could have been made easier if he had taken a better route or reacted more quickly to the hit. I've also seen some real duds.

 

I guess my question is whether that will improve with time or not. It seems different to me than hitting, where there will be an obvious step up in quality for pitchers faced and thus time needed for an adjustment. But is there that much of a difference in fielding from the minors to the majors? Hicks has played CF for years - is the route taken to a fly ball different in the minors than the majors? If not, he will be acceptable for a while, because his speed allows him to compensate. But eventually that will fade, and we'll be left with another Willingham defensively.

 

Genuinely curious. Those who say he will improve defensively, help me see why.

 

In my opinion , athleticism and instincts, to me he is an instinctive player and will improve, he is/was raw and still is learning, I think he will be well above average defender in the near future.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't expect in a few yrs that either Buxton or Hicks will be lead off hitters, I think we will still be looking for that guy. I think with Buxton and Hicks power potential, you will see them hitting in the 2-3-4-5 spots. I foresee at some point if all goes well, unknown at leadoff, Hicks batting second, Mauer 3rd, Sano 4th, Buxton 5th. Now both Buxton and Hicks can or could lead off, I am not saying they cant, but I ideally like them down just a bit.

 

Rickey Henderson thinks it's okay for leadoff guys to hit home runs and I agree with him. Buxton may be too good as an overall hitter for leadoff but Hicks is fine, even as a 15+ HR guy.

[blairpaul715]

I think we'll see him become a very fine hitter in time, but I am a bit concerned about his defense. When you watched Torii and Gomez early on you could see the ++ instincts, positioning, and ability. They just looked so smooth and natural out there.

 

Hicks, by contrast, looks clunky and disjointed. He doesn't appear smooth, fluid, or particularly instinctual. Maybe it's nerves or the atmosphere at big league parks or trying to adjust to the larger stadiums where you're watching the ball through fans behind the plate moreso than in minor league parks....but I think it's fair to say he hasn't been impressive in CF. Certainly not what I had expected from scouting reports.

 

I seen Gomez play early in his career, he misread a few balls, now more than Hicks, i don't know, but I am happy with Hicks , and I do know he will be our RF when Buxton comes up.

[Badsmerf]

Rickey Henderson thinks it's okay for leadoff guys to hit home runs and I agree with him. Buxton may be too good as an overall hitter for leadoff but Hicks is fine, even as a 15+ HR guy.

It will be all about OBP for Hicks. If he can get on base enough I don't care what his average is. When Buxton comes up I would rather Hicks play RF than Arcia because of his arm.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It will be all about OBP for Hicks. If he can get on base enough I don't care what his average is. When Buxton comes up I would rather Hicks play RF than Arcia because of his arm.

 

Well yeah, much of Hicks' leadoff ability will depend on his plate discipline. It was good through the minors but is pretty up and down right now.

[blairpaul715]

Rickey Henderson thinks it's okay for leadoff guys to hit home runs and I agree with him. Buxton may be too good as an overall hitter for leadoff but Hicks is fine, even as a 15+ HR guy.

 

I don't have a problem with either, and also if one has too, with the potential I see, I also would prefer Hicks leading off over Buxton, unless Buxton turns into a 60 plus SB threat.

[drjim]

Interestingly enough, everyone on that list except maybe Morneau got jerked around quite a bit by Gardy... There were some clamoring that those guys should be playing every day.

 

No, they weren't jerked around (with the possible exception of Bartlett being left in the minors a month or two longer than he should have been). Each of them didn't produce enough and a team fighting for a playoff spot were not in a position to be as patient as the Twins can be this year.

[drjim]

Reading through this I think that people are much more likely to nitpick defense when they watch a player every day compared to what they remember of past players or how they think other players perform around the league. Also, defensive metrics provide limited guidance (at best) in comparisons to other players.

 

With Hicks I am still going to trust the scouting reports. I also find it a little funny that some people dismiss the possibility that Hicks will get better on D as he gains experience.

[Craig Arko]

.197 now...

[jokin]

.197 now...

 

now at .201....our long national nightmare is officially over

[Craig Arko]

.201 and working on the Cycle.

 

Pop the champagne.

[JB_Iowa]

I took Hicks in our little "pick the stick" group for this series. If he could somehow manage to get a HR tonight to complete the cycle, I think I should get bonus points.

[TheLeviathan]

I took Hicks in our little "pick the stick" group for this series. If he could somehow manage to get a HR tonight to complete the cycle, I think I should get bonus points.

 

These kinds of games have to be a big pick-me-up for this kid. Nice to see.

[jokin]

.201 and working on the Cycle.

 

Pop the champagne.

 

Imagine what he could have done batting right handed on "Carmona"...

[jokin]

That OF play by Hicksie had a Delmon-esque look about it.

[gunnarthor]

Imagine what he could have done batting right handed on "Carmona"...

 

0-3 with 3K?