Working Through Ambiguity: Evaluating the Louis Varland Trade

[Jamie Cameron]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

The draft is supposed to be a VERY strong one in 2026 fwiw. Right @Jamie Cameron?

Not that that helps today, just saying.

Usual caveats apply about prognosticating about a class a year out, but, yes, 2023 caliber class. 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

Varland was the local kid who had made good.

I, frankly, don't care about that at all. But I'm a local kid that left so that makes sense. 

But even so, I basically think his upside is the other Minnesotan Glen Perkins. Which is a good nice career. Something he should be really proud of, obviously, but ultimately for naught. He was a darn good relief pitcher on really bad teams. If given the chance, the Twins would have been foolish not to go back in time and trade him in 2011 for two of another organization's top ten prospects and try to bet on some actual upside. 

I expect Roden to be about 6 WAR over the next 3-4 seasons and Rojas to be anywhere from a -2 to +10 WAR player over that same period. It's a good gamble for someone that is, at the end of the day, a good relief pitcher. 

I am more optimistic on Roden than most anyone else here, but that's only to say I think he is a step or two above Martin due to the fact that he has shown SOME power and has shown SOME defensive competency in the OF. 

Rojas seems like he must be Rule 5 eligible, explaining why Toronto was more willing to trade him away. Easy enough for the Twins to keep him on there all next season with no expectation he'd get a call-up. Seems he should start the season in AAA and maybe he eventually makes it up. Any maybe he's even someone, especially with that youth and the fact that he's not ever lasted a long season, that is best suited for the Crochet career path: coming into the bullpen initially with the plans of stretching him out as he gains strength and experience. 

2026 will be filled with patchwork solutions, and if things break right they can compete, but the Twins really shouldn't force players up just because there's a hole. Make sure they've proven themselves worthy. 

"Current" 2027 Depth Chart - 

C: ?, ? 

IF: Royce, Culpepper, Keaschall, ?, Lee, Eeles

OF: Buxton, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Roden, Mendez 

DH: Wallner, Gonzalez

SP: Ryan, Lopez, Matthews, Bradley, Festa, Ober, Abel, Rojas, Woods Richardson, Gallagher, Prielipp

RP: whatever failed starters the Twins decide, truly no one should be overly concerned

So the catching is a huge question mark, and the IF is looking iffy. There's enough depth in the OF and the top prospects being exciting enough that I think it will be fine and the pitching looks deep. 

[Sjoski]

I have a dream.

Nothing this front office does surprises me anymore.
Trading Varland was just another one to add to the list.
Next up: Ryan and López.
The roster will be ground to dust, the rebuild will drag for 5–6 years, and Target Field will be a dust bowl. 

But then…
Louie Varland re-signs with the Twins after 2030.
And in 2031, with a rebuilt roster and Louie as the closer,
the Twins finally win the World Series.

It only took burning it all down to make it happen.
 

[jimbo92107]

The Varland trade was eckstrah spechul stooooooopid. Hometown boy with live arm, under control until the end of the decade, his ceiling completely unknown since he starting throwing shortarm. It's quite possible whoever gets him will switch him right back to a full windup, and wind up with a good starter. 

What did they get in return? Light hitting, average outfielder, and a lefty prospect, possibly decent. 

Stoooooooooooooopid.

[Blsouthwick]

varland would have been much more valuable with successful closing experience. He would have surely gotten that chance for the remainder of this year and next. If we still stink next yr trade him then. There is no difference between 5 yrs of control or 4yrs. There was no need to trade him now. Build the value. 

[DocBauer]

The context of the Varland trade, by itself, isn't the issue, IMO. BUT, the context of ALL the trades together makes this a misfire, along with a couple other moves made.

But to make this any other points clear, I have to digress some.

Correa heard about an initial inquiry that was laughable. THEN, the Astro's OWNER bypasses Falvey AND Joe Pohlad and speaks to Jim Pohlad directly. (Who's running this mess)?! Falvey tells Correa, honestly, "You didn't sign up for this". Correa then states that while he wants to stay, he would waive his no trade clause for Houston and nobody else. Correa then speaks to Jax about an impending firesale, and his possibly/probably moving back to Houston and Jax asks for a trade.

ALL of that is IMPORTANT context.

1] Jax did NOT HAVE to be traded at the last minute for Taj Bradley. While Bradley has a good arm, the Rays haven't been able to fully develop him as of yet. Maybe the Twins will. Or maybe he turns in to a really good RP. But almost every thing I've read says the Twins undersold on Jax, who would have been the Twins closer in 2026.

2] While Stewart says his arm feels better than it has in years following his last procedure, it's still possible it self destructs again in the near future. But his arm is talented, has been performing very well, and all of him is inexpensive and cost controlled for the next few years. That means he's very good and cheap. And we move him for a 28yo OF who had ONE good season in 2023? We're going to "fix" Outman when we haven't been able to fix some of our own players?

3] While Varland being a local boy is a great story, IDK in the context of roster building and value. He's made a tremendous transition to the pen, is inexpensive and cost controlled for the next few years. Sound familiar?

To be completely fair to Roden, he's younger than Larnach, has more speed, and is a better OF defensively.  Also to be fair, he has a little over 100 ML PA. So we still don't know if his bat will or won't translate to MLB. But we DO KNOW that Larnach is a solid, decent ML bat already. We also know that Rodrigez and Jenkins are 2 of our best prospects, also LH bats, and both relatively close to appearing for the Twins.

Rojas MIGHT be a really talented LH arm. And maybe he's the real prize here. And maybe he turns out to be a quality SP in some capacity. Maybe he becomes a really strong LHRP for the late innings. And if so, there's real value in that! 

But COLLECTIVELY, the Twins COULD have had the 2026 bullpen start with Jax, Varland, and Stewart, with hope that Sands settles in closer to his 2024 season. 

That makes sense to me with all of the other trades that took place. But in the overall CONTEXT of the trades, they moved Stewart for NOTHING. And at the last minute they traded BOTH Jax AND Varland for an OF that is currently redundant in the scheme of things, a talented young RH arm that is trending downward and might end up in the pen, and a talented young  LH arm that has yet to throw more than 84 IP in any MILB season, and also might be targeted for the pen.

And if and when Bradley, potentially, move to the pen, there is real value in that still. And I'm NOT saying either, or both, might not be solid SP options still. But neither arm projects as well as Abel right now, or Matthews, Festa, or SWR. As of NOW.

So the pen is decimated when we could have had a handful of 3-4 pieces to build around. And we have a questionable fit in a LH OF, and a couple arms with potential, vs proven quality.

Once again, CONTEXT is what I'm looking at. Getting more arms is never a bad thing. But the biggest need is to add some actual ML quality BATS. And so far, we have the potentially questionable fit of Roden, and a highly rated young catching prospect, and a flash in the pan 28yo LH OF.

So while we added 1 great arm, a couple decent arms, at least 1 good young 18yo A+ catcher, but added next to NOTHING for the lineup, while DESTROYING the pen, how does moving Varland...the original topic...do anything for the future of the franchise? 

Maybe a couple years from now Roden is better than Wallner, Rodriguez, or Jenkins. Maybe Rojas is being undervalued and will be part of the future rotation, or a pen mainstay. Maybe Bradley makes us forget about Jax. But that's a handful "maybes" that would seem to have a MAJOR negative impact on 2026, and possibly 2027 as well.

When you read reports from other teams how they "won" trades with the Twins, and don't see much in the way of positives for 2026, I really have to question Falvey at this point. It's almost as if they were making all these deals and just said "the hell with it. Let's make a few more"!

Again, by itself, you can make arguements about the value of the return for Varland on an individual trade basis. But when you look at the OVERALL CONTEXT of these trades as a COLLECTIVE, you see a team with NO DIRECTION. 

I suppose Ryan and/or Lopez will be next to HOPEFULLY add some BATS, and the complete teardown and re-build will commence. But considering where this team was less than 24 months ago, some quality prospects about ready to debut, it really didn't have to go down like this.

[twinstalker]

Good trade.  Will miss Louie.  They don't make this trade unless they think they won it for their situation.  Varland will likely have ups and downs over his career, and his ups aren't necessary this year and next for sure for the Twins

[tony&rodney]

Both Varland and Stewart were traded for ifs. The Twins are addicted to ifs. We can spin and spin and spin to come up with ..... if Outman, if Rojas, if Roden. 

The Dodgers and Blue Jays reached out to the Twins and saw guys who can, so they offered their ifs.

[dogman]

17 hours ago, cjm0926 said:

I don't think it is crazy to say at all that Louis Varland's value would possibly have been higher in the future. A year or two down the road if Varland kept improving like he already was showing he had been, with that nasty of stuff you could have been talking about a borderline Duran-esque return. With that being said, there are plenty of young players who show promise and eventually fade or regress. All in all, not a fan of the trade at all, but will cheer for Roden and Rojas' success, and will cheer extra hard for the sale of the team and the replacement of the front office and manager.

Or Varland throwing 100 mph has tommy John soon.

[Richmond Dude]

I admit I didn't like the trade because I liked that Varland was a Minnesota kid and I wanted to root for him on the Twins.  Having said that, Jays fans aren't happy with the trade, which does tell me something.

Regarding us ending up with so many LH outfielders, I'm wondering if any of them are able to translate into a 1B?  If so, you might find your answer to why Rodan there.  Some of this may ultimately have to do with the unexpected retirement of Kiriloff.

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, Richmond Dude said:

I admit I didn't like the trade because I liked that Varland was a Minnesota kid and I wanted to root for him on the Twins.  Having said that, Jays fans aren't happy with the trade, which does tell me something.

Regarding us ending up with so many LH outfielders, I'm wondering if any of them are able to translate into a 1B?  If so, you might find your answer to why Rodan there.  Some of this may ultimately have to do with the unexpected retirement of Kiriloff.

Well, none of them have put on a 1B glove yet.......so I don't know. I mean, I'd consider it! But actions speak loudly, imo.

[awmonahan]

I get that pedigree matters somehow, but Louis was about to be the closer. Trading him for a maybe starter and a maybe 4th outfielder feels a bit short for a guy that could close with 5 years of control. I don't care as much about being from MN or not. But, what he is/will be feel like it is worth more, or xould have been worth more this off-season. 

[Major League Ready]

On 8/5/2025 at 2:51 PM, Nshore said:

Roden has as many holes in his  swing as Wallner and Larnach.  Swiss cheese.  Hope the pitcher works out.

His in zone contact rate in the minors was in the 95th percentile.