The Twins Could Be Sellers and Still Make the Playoffs. (They've Done It Before!)

[Matthew Lenz]

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel - Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins currently sit four games below .500 and five games out of the second and third American League Wild Card spots. This has led to the team “seriously listening” to offers on their expiring contracts, namely Harrison Bader, Willi Castro, and Danny Coulombe, as reported by Jon Heyman of the New York Post. In the same report Heyman shared that the team is also listening to offers on their high-end controllable assets, such as Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran, and Griffin Jax. If that trio is retained, the Twins playoff odds will be nominally impacted.

Currently, FanGraphs give the Twins a 15% chance to make the playoffs - 10th highest in the American League and better than one of the teams (Los Angeles Angels) ahead of them in the wild card standings. Moreover, the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals, who are also ahead of them in the standings, are expected to be sellers themselves over the next week. Ahead of those teams are the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers, who have also been rumored to be shopping some of their contributors on the trade market. That leaves the teams currently holding a playoff spot as the only true “buyers” ahead of the July 31 deadline. Even the current wild card teams (New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, and Boston Red Sox) have pretty significant question marks that may not be entirely addressed by 5 pm next Thursday. While the Twins have an uphill battle, it's not completely insane to think they can sell their expiring contracts and still make the playoffs. After all, we've seen this play out before.

The 2017 Twins were in a similar boat entering the final week of July. They were a middling team who struggled in the weeks between the All-Star game and the trade deadline. To the dismay of some of the key contributors, the Twins shipped their All-Star closer (Brandon Kintzler) to the Washington Nationals instead of adding at the deadline for a playoff push. That team went 35-24 over the last two months of the season and overcame a five-game deficit, earning the final AL Wild Card spot handedly. On the backs of Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana, the Twins clinched a playoff spot on September 27th after having just a 4% chance on August 1st. It's not hard to draw parallels between that team and the current team.   

The biggest reason to be optimistic is that Pablo Lopez is expected to return at some point in the second half. Though we don't have an exact timeline, the eight-to-12-week estimation from early June could see him returning to action sometime in August. Moreover, while we have even less information on Bailey Ober, he could also make a return at some point in the season’s final two months. Those two would be welcome additions to a rotation that has been able to tread water without two of their three top arms, not to mention injuries to Zebby Matthews and David Festa. On the other side of the ball, the offense has been unsurprisingly inconsistent this season and as a whole remain the team’s X-factor. 

Losing Castro and Bader to a trade would have a negative impact on the offense (and defense in the case of Bader), however it's not out of the realm of possibility that the team can’t overcome those losses. Hitting is contagious and the charismatic Royce Lewis could be just the spark the team needs to give everyone else a jolt in the arm - if he can stay hot. Moreover, in an extremely small sample, Luke Keaschall was electric prior to his injury, and he should be returning soon - possibly as an upgrade over the struggling Brooks Lee. Additionally, Carlos Correa and Ryan Jeffers have been trending up lately with a 135 and 153 wRC+, respectively, in the month of July. While sustained production from any of these names is far from a guarantee, we've also seen these players produce at these levels before (well, except for Keaschall).

Again, this all hinges on the Twins retaining their most valuable assets not named Buxton through next Thursday’s deadline. But if they do, history has a way of repeating itself and this team is built to do just that.

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[NYCTK]

Hang the 2017 AL Wild Card play-in game loser banner. 

 

[UK Twin]

I think Detroit traded their rentals last season at the deadline and went on a tear after that to make the play offs so it can clearly be done. Would require the likes of Wallner, Correa and Jeffers to improve at the plate. 

[Patzky]

2024 Tigers have set the bar for pulling this off.

[Hrbeks Divot]

I have no problem with selling the expiring contracts. I have no interest in moving controllable assets right now with the uncertainty of the ownership and front office. If those change I’d rather have the new FO, with the possibility of a little more payroll flexibility and a different plan, use those assets in the offseason to start their build.

[thelanges5]

18 minutes ago, Patzky said:

2024 Tigers have set the bar for pulling this off.

With the weight of expectations off their shoulders, who knows!?!
Royce is heating up, Correa has been better (.319 is his last 25 games), where art though Wallner, Pablo returns, Ober?, Keaschall returns. 
 

Stranger things have happened. Let’s go Twins! 

[Trov]

I fully agree with this, they could sell some pieces and unless they do a full sell off, if Lewis, CC, Wallner, and other guys that have struggled on offense can pick it up.  We have guys coming back from injuries and pitching coming back they could make a late run.  The guys they are talking about trading we could fill their rolls from minors. 

[miller761]

Looking at their remaining schedule a 36-24 record is very possible. Will it happpen...probably not. I for one remain optimistic. If these 3 things happen I like our chances. (1) Keaschall returns shortly and is the player we saw earlier. Our offense was just so much better with his hitting and baserunning. (2) Ober returns next week and is able to retain his velocity. (3) Pablo follows suit shortly thereafter. We have a lot of division games left that we must win series and hold our own against the Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays.

[jkcarew]

Yes. It can happen. But getting MATERIALLY better by 2027 and beyond should be the objective. 

[LastOnePicked]

It might be helpful at some point to realize that this is not a playoff-caliber team ... and not even a particularly good team. Spotty rotation. Terrible offense. Weak defense. No, it's not happening.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

It might be helpful at some point to realize that this is not a playoff-caliber team ... and not even a particularly good team. Spotty rotation. Terrible offense. Weak defense. No, it's not happening.

A lot of third party baseball commentators look at your half empty glass and suggest it is half full. The rotation wasn't 'spotty' before they lost 60% of it, the bullpen is strong, and there are several players who have produced offense in the past that haven't done it as much so far. There is a reason they play 162 games, of course - I recall Kepler and Lewis going on a tear in the latter parts of the season, and it is certainly possible that could still happen for the likes of Lewis, Wallner, and Correa. 

[jkcarew]

So…trade guys you won’t get anything for…and hope to sneak into the playoffs. Because, 1…it’s happened before, and 2…it’s so fulfilling and meaningful to, once every two or three years, qualify for a 12-team playoff field and lose in a preliminary round.

This, along with occasionally “buying” low-rent pieces that have almost zero chance of moving the needle, are two sides of the same deadline coin.
 

If this is your position…how do you justify criticizing the FO…or ownership for that matter? They’ve been doing exactly what you’re asking for…for the past ten seasons.

 

 

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

A lot of third party baseball commentators look at your half empty glass and suggest it is half full.

At some point, it just doesn't matter. 50% of a contending team is 50%. That's never enough for a winner.

The pipeline didn't materialize. The prospects have mostly been a bust. Correa's contract eats up any chance of taking on new free agents. No, it's not happening here, sorry. There's no other reasonable conclusion. Though I appreciate the hope some folks still have.

[arby58]

1 minute ago, LastOnePicked said:

At some point, it just doesn't matter. 50% of a contending team is 50%. That's never enough for a winner.

The pipeline didn't materialize. The prospects have mostly been a bust. Correa's contract eats up any chance of taking on new free agents. No, it's not happening here, sorry. There's no other reasonable conclusion. Though I appreciate the hope some folks still have.

The other side is there. The starting pitching - when not injured - is strong, as is the bullpen. There is plenty of talent on the offensive side - they just need Lewis, Wallner, and Correa to produce and Keaschall to join them. Both Lewis and Correa are showing this might still happen this year.  These are not incredible or unreasonable possibilities. 

[LastOnePicked]

17 minutes ago, arby58 said:

The other side is there. The starting pitching - when not injured - is strong, as is the bullpen. There is plenty of talent on the offensive side - they just need Lewis, Wallner, and Correa to produce and Keaschall to join them. Both Lewis and Correa are showing this might still happen this year.  These are not incredible or unreasonable possibilities. 

Love it, and good on you. See how it all turns out. And please don't put any hard-earned money on Twins success this year. Or next.

[TL]

Wallner is streaky and he’s due for a hot one. Lewis may have found something and Correa is no longer a liability. Keaschall and Lopez come back and we are cooking. 
 

Would still trade Castro, Bader, Columbe for good value, if it’s there, and DFA France (Keaschall can play first remainder of this year).