Report: Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres Have Had Conversations Around Christian Vázquez, Dylan Cease

[Jocko87]

26 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

AJ Preller is a great GM. He's a wheeler-dealer, someone who can actually be creative, initiate & close on essential deals which I appreciate the most in a GM. I can't see the Cease for Vazquez deal ever working out, I know many will disagree with what I'm about to suggest, I'm not texting for them but those that might be more realistic & who could appreciate a good trade. What the Twins need most is a bonafide promising young MLB-ready catcher. My suggestion is Preller put together a 3-way trade involving SD/ NYY/ CWS. Basically, SD trades Cease & Arraez to  NYY, CWS trades  Roberts to NYY & Teel to SD, and NYY gives CWS a bunch of high prospects. Then Preller approaches the Twins for a Teel for a catcher trade.  My hope is in Preller's ability to pull this off. Teel is very promising & MLB-ready and could justifiably cover as a 2nd catcher (not what Falvey has whipped up). Where CWS could hesitate to trade us Teel directly but secretly via SD they could. We can debate who that catcher should be but this trade would help us this year & for many years to come. This could be a great opportunity to use Preller's ability for our benefit because I have no faith in Falvey to pull something like this off,

Great is not the word I’d use to describe him, not after taking a look at how his actual trades worked out.  Had his squads ever won anything we could look at it differently but all he’s done is shuffle the deck chairs facilitating his competitors rebuilds and now his honey hole has dried up.  

I posted a short summary of his trade tree earlier in this thread and to say if a Twins GM had that history Twins Daily would have already melted into a puddle of goo.  AJ Preller is the cautionary tale for Twins fans begging for them to do something.  It might sell tickets, and that’s not nothing, but that team is in trouble.

I’ve been looking into him a bit with this news and you are certainly correct in that he is a wheeler dealer of the highest order.  As with most wheeler dealers, they don’t actually perform that well and they MUST make more deals to stay ahead of the reaper.  I think that’s exactly why we are hearing these rumors.  

Preller finds himself with a new owner and a vastly different mandate.  I think his new motivation is going to be restocking the farm the only way he knows how.  That brings us to Vazquez.  In the last year of his contract with an uber prospect in Salas close, Vazquez would be gone at the deadline.  Same with Paddack and Castro as rumored names go.  

It sounds like the Cease and Vazquez topics are different discussions but from his perspective, if he can get one really good prospect and a bunch of deadline ammunition to maximize return on Cease it might make sense to a wheeler dealer.

Minnesota fans would never think like this, but Preller almost certainly is.  I’d bet he’s having this conversation with every team that has good expiring contracts.

[FargoFanMan]

19 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Maybe I wrote too much which obscured my message. The Twins need bats. They don't need pitching if it cost any bats. It would be beyond foolish to trade any of Jenkins, Rodriguez, or Keaschall for Cease in consideration of the Twins need for bats.

I would tend to agree. At the moment a top of the rotation pitcher is presenting itself. When you have the chance to add elite talent at the major league level you do that if you can. This is the opportunity. If they pull it off you’re gonna be mad that he’s not a hitter? We know Cease is a good major league pitcher. Those 3 prospects have no guarantee they’ll ever even make it to the majors let alone provide any value. Cease could get hurt day one. There’s no guarantees but I’d rather take a chance to get a playoff caliber starter for one year than to continually kick the star prospect can down the road. They’re gonna be extremely lucky if one of those 3 prospects even has an above average MLB career let alone all 3. I’m averse to prospects after watching 20 years of Terry Ryan hold onto prospects when he could’ve gone out and got something to supplement the 2000’s twins teams. Sano was supposed to be the next David Ortiz, Buxton was supposed to be the next Griffey, Kyle Gibson was the next Twins ace, Jason Kubel was the next big star. Those guys never came close to that despite the hype. Prospects are just that. Hype. I’d rather help the team now than wait for a super team in 5 years. Cause I’ve been waiting for that super team of prospects for 25 years. 

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Maybe you you know what from the same mold means, it means the same kind. If I say Arraez is from the same mold as Carew, doesn't mean that he's a fix for HOF. Because so many people are so hung up about WAR, Molina might not make it on the 1st ballot although he's one of the all-time greats. 

I didn't say hitting wasn't important, I said hitting is super important for DH, 1B & cOFers. Hitting isn't important for pitchers it never was. A good catcher adds so much more than their hitting to highly influence a game. I'm sorry if you can't see it. AGAIN my guidelines aren't the point here, that needs to be debated. They are only guidelines that can be adjusted to show how to look at the importance of OPS in each position. 

I know what "from the same mold means." It's why I've easily shown that they're not from the same mold. Yadier Molina was not a defense only catcher. He was a two-way catcher. He doesn't prove your point because he's the proof against your point. In 2011 he was the 40th best hitter in all of baseball according to wRC+. In 2012 he was the 18th best hitter in all of baseball. In 2013 he was the 28th best hitter IN ALL OF BASEBALL. They are not the same mold. Christian Vazquez is a defense only catcher. He has been for his entire career outside of 1 full season. Yadier Molina was a star with the bat for multiple years and well above average for even more. It's not the same thing. They're not the same mold and it's ridiculous to claim they are.

Catchers do add more than their hitting. But their hitting matters. Your guidelines are the point. Not the exact numbers, but what you're trying to represent. I understood the point about the difference of OPS at each position and I showed you you're wrong about how big of a difference there is based on position. I showed you, with actual data and evidence from actual player performance, that Vazquez level hitting would make the Twins one of the bottom 5 hitting catcher positions in baseball. The exact number doesn't matter, just your general split idea. I understand that. What you're not understanding is that Vazquez is so bad that he's under your already too low of a number and that matters. Yes, they bring more than just offense. Of course they do. But they have to provide some offense. And Vazquez doesn't. 

I get that your point is how much weight you need to give to OPS/hitting vs defense at each position. And my disagreement is with your weights you give to them. Your exact numbers were just proof that your idea of the importance of offense is too widely varied between the positions.

[Doctor Gast]

I remember someone texted that SD didn't want Paddack in return. To me that seems strange, they brought him through the system, they gave him to us broken, we invested time & money into him to fix him. He's good to go, they need him & now they don't want him?

[Finlander]

Cease is a legit ace - they don't become available often. Check his last 4 years. The fact that SD would actually be interested in Vasquez should get the Twins' attention too. We could always get old recently signed Maldonado back from SD if we're concerned about catching depth. Wouldn't hesitate to do some sort of deal around maybe a Vasquez/Larnach/high lottery ticket/competitive balance draft pick type package for Cease/Maldonado/low prospect. Count on Emma to replace Larnach's role soon, and try hard to sign Cease using the deferred money trick that the Dodgers seem to have perfected.

That competitive balance draft slot should be a nice chip to sweeten a deal and help protect our best prospects.

[sweetmusicviola16]

50 minutes ago, FargoFanMan said:

I would tend to agree. At the moment a top of the rotation pitcher is presenting itself. When you have the chance to add elite talent at the major league level you do that if you can. This is the opportunity. If they pull it off you’re gonna be mad that he’s not a hitter? We know Cease is a good major league pitcher. Those 3 prospects have no guarantee they’ll ever even make it to the majors let alone provide any value. Cease could get hurt day one. There’s no guarantees but I’d rather take a chance to get a playoff caliber starter for one year than to continually kick the star prospect can down the road. They’re gonna be extremely lucky if one of those 3 prospects even has an above average MLB career let alone all 3. I’m averse to prospects after watching 20 years of Terry Ryan hold onto prospects when he could’ve gone out and got something to supplement the 2000’s twins teams. Sano was supposed to be the next David Ortiz, Buxton was supposed to be the next Griffey, Kyle Gibson was the next Twins ace, Jason Kubel was the next big star. Those guys never came close to that despite the hype. Prospects are just that. Hype. I’d rather help the team now than wait for a super team in 5 years. Cause I’ve been waiting for that super team of prospects for 25 years. 

If you're talking our top 3 of Jenkins, Erod and Keaschell they are very much an overpay. Cease is a one year rental to the Padres. Based on last seasons Burnes to Bal trade Culpepper, Lewis and Diaw would be paying as much if not more than Baltimore did for Burnes. But I get it, watching prospects you are told are the next latest and greatest while they crash and burn is frustrating to say the least. Dylan Cease isn't available everyday, if he is now.

[Doctor Gast]

7 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Great is not the word I’d use to describe him, not after taking a look at how his actual trades worked out.  Had his squads ever won anything we could look at it differently but all he’s done is shuffle the deck chairs facilitating his competitors rebuilds and now his honey hole has dried up.  

I posted a short summary of his trade tree earlier in this thread and to say if a Twins GM had that history Twins Daily would have already melted into a puddle of goo.  AJ Preller is the cautionary tale for Twins fans begging for them to do something.  It might sell tickets, and that’s not nothing, but that team is in trouble.

I’ve been looking into him a bit with this news and you are certainly correct in that he is a wheeler dealer of the highest order.  As with most wheeler dealers, they don’t actually perform that well and they MUST make more deals to stay ahead of the reaper.  I think that’s exactly why we are hearing these rumors.  

Preller finds himself with a new owner and a vastly different mandate.  I think his new motivation is going to be restocking the farm the only way he knows how.  That brings us to Vazquez.  In the last year of his contract with an uber prospect in Salas close, Vazquez would be gone at the deadline.  Same with Paddack and Castro as rumored names go.  

It sounds like the Cease and Vazquez topics are different discussions but from his perspective, if he can get one really good prospect and a bunch of deadline ammunition to maximize return on Cease it might make sense to a wheeler dealer.

Minnesota fans would never think like this, but Preller almost certainly is.  I’d bet he’s having this conversation with every team that has good expiring contracts.

He can't control how SD or other teams develop players, he has to trust what his player evaluations tell him & some long shots turned out, but some more certain ones didn't, A lot of it is out of his control, his job is to buy & sell & that what he does. Some blame him for Endy Rodrigues? To land Musgrove, PIT had their eye on this cheap insignificant Met's catcher, Preller went out of his way to intise him away from NYM to land Musgrove. IMO the SD trade pieces weren't that great but this cheap insignificant Mets Endy Rodrigues was a gem, you can only credit the PIT catcher evaluater. Some blame him for Rooker, could he help it that they couldn't develop him? Some blame Falvey for Mahle I don't (unless he knew about his condition & ignored it), I applaud him for trying.

[sweetmusicviola16]

17 minutes ago, Finlander said:

Cease is a legit ace - they don't become available often. Check his last 4 years. The fact that SD would actually be interested in Vasquez should get the Twins' attention too. We could always get old recently signed Maldonado back from SD if we're concerned about catching depth. Wouldn't hesitate to do some sort of deal around maybe a Vasquez/Larnach/high lottery ticket/competitive balance draft pick type package for Cease/Maldonado/low prospect. Count on Emma to replace Larnach's role soon, and try hard to sign Cease using the deferred money trick that the Dodgers seem to have perfected.

That competitive balance draft slot should be a nice chip to sweeten a deal and help protect our best prospects.

Yes. And that deferral trick is available to every team. Toronto deferred 2/3 of Santanders recent deal. I like the idea of using Larnach in this deal. He is very replaceable. I'd have little issue in adding Maldonado too. It would be very temporary.

[Finlander]

I believe SD needs a left fielder, and we have Emma almost ready to come up - that's why I suggested Larnach. Castro/Martin/FA Canha could keep LF spot warm until Emma arrives.

[Jocko87]

4 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

He can't control how SD or other teams develop players, he has to trust what his player evaluations tell him & some long shots turned out, but some more certain ones didn't, A lot of it is out of his control, his job is to buy & sell & that what he does. Some blame him for Endy Rodrigues? To land Musgrove, PIT had their eye on this cheap insignificant Met's catcher, Preller went out of his way to intise him away from NYM to land Musgrove. IMO the SD trade pieces weren't that great but this cheap insignificant Mets Endy Rodrigues was a gem, you can only credit the PIT catcher evaluater. Some blame him for Rooker, could he help it that they couldn't develop him? Some blame Falvey for Mahle I don't (unless he knew about his condition & ignored it), I applaud him for trying.

Endy Rodriguez and Brent Rooker aren't in the top 10 of guys I'd be worried about him sending away.  His history is horrible.

I'm talking Emmanual Clase for "Brett Nicholas".  At something like #7 on the list.

[sweetmusicviola16]

16 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Endy Rodriguez and Brent Rooker aren't in the top 10 of guys I'd be worried about him sending away.  His history is horrible.

I'm talking Emmanual Clase for "Brett Nicholas".  At something like #7 on the list.

I for sure wouldn't want Preller running this team. About the only thing that would fix the mess he'd make would be contraction.

[Linus]

I don’t believe for a minute that Cease and Vasquez are involved in the same transaction.  Both teams are looking to cut payroll.  Why would SD mess around with Vasquez when they can deal Cease for good prospect and use a small part of the savings to sign a McCann?

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

Great is not the word I’d use to describe him, not after taking a look at how his actual trades worked out.  Had his squads ever won anything we could look at it differently but all he’s done is shuffle the deck chairs facilitating his competitors rebuilds and now his honey hole has dried up.  

I posted a short summary of his trade tree earlier in this thread and to say if a Twins GM had that history Twins Daily would have already melted into a puddle of goo.  AJ Preller is the cautionary tale for Twins fans begging for them to do something.  It might sell tickets, and that’s not nothing, but that team is in trouble.

I’ve been looking into him a bit with this news and you are certainly correct in that he is a wheeler dealer of the highest order.  As with most wheeler dealers, they don’t actually perform that well and they MUST make more deals to stay ahead of the reaper.  I think that’s exactly why we are hearing these rumors.  

Preller finds himself with a new owner and a vastly different mandate.  I think his new motivation is going to be restocking the farm the only way he knows how.  That brings us to Vazquez.  In the last year of his contract with an uber prospect in Salas close, Vazquez would be gone at the deadline.  Same with Paddack and Castro as rumored names go.  

It sounds like the Cease and Vazquez topics are different discussions but from his perspective, if he can get one really good prospect and a bunch of deadline ammunition to maximize return on Cease it might make sense to a wheeler dealer.

Minnesota fans would never think like this, but Preller almost certainly is.  I’d bet he’s having this conversation with every team that has good expiring contracts.

The San Diego Padres have won their fan base, made the playoffs, and been one helluva joy for their fans year in and year out.

In baseball, the playoffs are cruel and rarely reward those who deserve it most.  It shouldn't be the end-all, be-all of judging a process.

[Doctor Gast]

30 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Endy Rodriguez and Brent Rooker aren't in the top 10 of guys I'd be worried about him sending away.  His history is horrible.

I'm talking Emmanual Clase for "Brett Nicholas".  At something like #7 on the list.

IMO here is SD not able to develop Clase & was a nobody. I give TX credit for eyeing him & developing him (I had an eye on Clase while in TX, hoping that we could land him). I criticize TX for developing him & then letting him go for Kluber, who didn't amount to anything there.

[jorgenswest]

No one knows what the Twins will do with payroll. Last year the proposed sale of the Orioles was announced in January 30. They made the deal for Corbin Burnes on February 1. The sale wasn’t approved until the end of March but I have to believe that deal was the new ownerships interest.

Burnes is a good comp. Someone is going to offer a similar package for Cease. It is going to hurt to get Cease, I would pay the price.

 

[chpettit19]

30 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

The San Diego Padres have won their fan base, made the playoffs, and been one helluva joy for their fans year in and year out.

In baseball, the playoffs are cruel and rarely reward those who deserve it most.  It shouldn't be the end-all, be-all of judging a process.

AJ Preller took over the Padres in 2014. In 11 seasons with him running the show the Padres have made the playoffs 3 times and finished above .500 4 times. Their best season was the shortened 2020 year. They didn't finish above .500 for the first time until his 8th year, which was 2020. Then in the 9th season they dropped back below .500. Since then they've finished above .500 all 3 years, but 2023 they won 82 games. Just like the Twins just did and people are acting like the Twins are a disaster. Year in and year out is a drastic exaggeration of the actual results for the Padres under Preller.

AJ Preller has an awful track record. The Padres dying owner won over their fan base by throwing their budget out the window for a handful of years that are now coming back to bite them as they're needing to do things like trade Cease to cut salary. They're locked into multiple long-term deals that are already starting to look bad. You don't have to look at playoff results to say Preller hasn't been successful. Falvey has been in charge for 8 years. Again, at that point Preller had only finished above .500 once, in a shortened season in his 8th year, before immediately going back below .500. Their "year in and year out" success has been 3 years with 1 of them being the same record as the Twins just finished with. 

[chpettit19]

30 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO here is SD not able to develop Clase & was a nobody. I give TX credit for eyeing him & developing him (I had an eye on Clase while in TX, hoping that we could land him). I criticize TX for developing him & then letting him go for Kluber, who didn't amount to anything there.

Being able to develop players is Preller's job. Literally. Him not being able to build a minor league system that can develop all these stars he's traded away isn't a badge of honor, it's another mark against him. "He can't control how other teams develop players?" What does that mean? So, it's not his fault that his organization can't develop players even though other teams can develop them? It's literally his job to make sure his team can develop players. His job isn't just to "buy and sell."

He's been in charge of the Padres for 11 years and has been trading away stars the whole time while finishing under .500 for the majority of his time in charge (7 of 11 years under .500). He's been awful. He didn't find success until his dying owner threw the budget out the window and let him spend like crazy. He's made the playoffs 3 of 11 seasons. You think Falvey's been bad and should be fired? He's been in charge for 8 years. Preller's first season of finishing above .500 was in his 8th season in charge. Preller's been horrible. Totally terrible.

[Jocko87]

38 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

The San Diego Padres have won their fan base, made the playoffs, and been one helluva joy for their fans year in and year out.

In baseball, the playoffs are cruel and rarely reward those who deserve it most.  It shouldn't be the end-all, be-all of judging a process.

I acknowledged that he’s sold tickets, and that’s not nothing.  But the merry go round is about to stop.  When evaluating these positions one must ask the question-what would have happened if we had done nothing?  

AJ Preller is a net negative.

36 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO here is SD not able to develop Clase & was a nobody. I give TX credit for eyeing him & developing him (I had an eye on Clase while in TX, hoping that we could land him). I criticize TX for developing him & then letting him go for Kluber, who didn't amount to anything there.

It’s not just Clase.  Just go look at the list, don’t get too wrapped around individual names.  The sheer volume is astounding. 

[TheLeviathan]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Being able to develop players is Preller's job. Literally. Him not being able to build a minor league system that can develop all these stars he's traded away isn't a badge of honor, it's another mark against him. "He can't control how other teams develop players?" What does that mean? So, it's not his fault that his organization can't develop players even though other teams can develop them? It's literally his job to make sure his team can develop players. His job isn't just to "buy and sell."

He's been in charge of the Padres for 11 years and has been trading away stars the whole time while finishing under .500 for the majority of his time in charge (7 of 11 years under .500). He's been awful. He didn't find success until his dying owner threw the budget out the window and let him spend like crazy. He's made the playoffs 3 of 11 seasons. You think Falvey's been bad and should be fired? He's been in charge for 8 years. Preller's first season of finishing above .500 was in his 8th season in charge. Preller's been horrible. Totally terrible.

I have no interest in parsing those years for bad injury lack, bad trades, good ones, bad deals, or good ones.  Under his watch one of baseball's most apathetic fan bases became rabid.  Sign me up all day for that fun.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, TheLeviathan said:

I have no interest in parsing those years for bad injury lack, bad trades, good ones, bad deals, or good ones.  Under his watch one of baseball's most apathetic fan bases became rabid.  Sign me up all day for that fun.

7 straight years below .500 isn't bad luck, it's bad performance from the man in charge. There's no parsing needed. 

Apathetic fan bases? The Padres have been drawing 2+ million fans going back to the mid-90s. They drew 1.9 million in 2009, but that's the only year under 2 million since 1995. Until his owner threw massive amounts of cash at the team, they weren't doing any better than they were before he got there. 2017 and 18, his 4th and 5th season in charge they were back down to barely over 2 million.

You don't need to parse anything. AJ Preller didn't do any of that, the owner throwing an unsustainable budget at him made up for his awful performance and got the fan base excited. You would not call 7 years below .500 fun. Or, if you would, then you've been having a lot of fun with the Twins.

[DocBauer]

I'm going to just put my own spin on things at this point.

1] Dan Hayes has reported that the interest in Vazquez by SD is real. They were in on him 2 years ago when the Twins got him with a 3rd year. SD doesn't like their current catchers due to poor offense and poor defense. They're interested in Vazquez to lead their staff.

] Also according to Hayes, the Padres don't necessarily want to move Cease as they have a TON of guaranteed $ locked up and they still want to compete, but they also want to trim payroll where they can as they have an ongoing fight of who is going to "own" the team and be in control. Cease has come up as a result, but he and Vazquez are presumably 2 entirely different conversations, not necessarily tied together. (Doesn't mean things couldn't change).

3] Falvey has always run the team with a personal mantra of "what can I do NOW to improve the team without sacrificing the future". I don't see him suddenly changing gears now. That doesn't mean questions asked about Cease's availability aren't genuine. You ALWAYS ask! But if the Twins were forced to trade a trio of top 15 picks for ONE YEAR of Cease, i believe Falvey would balk.

4] NEITHER Vazaquez or Paddack are going to bring back some top prospect, or prime starting player with any type of control. Zoll has publicly stated the payroll could stay neutral and be OK to start the season. 

Let's take him at his published word.

IF Paddack and Vazquez could be moved, possibly along with a low level prospect or two, the Twins POTENTIALLY have $17M to work with.

Moving BOTH of those expiring deals allows them to POTENTIALLY:

A] Sign a veteran backup catcher like Diaz, McCann, or Grandal for a 70-30 split with Jeffers for $2-3M

B] Sign a RHOF like Grichuk for $4-5M. Career mostly neutral splits, not a "specialist".

C] Sign a LHRP such as Chafin or Poche for $3-4M, mostly neutral splits, not a LOOGY only.

D] Sign a 1B/DH option like France, only 30yo, who MIGHT be a rebound candidate, for $4-5M

The $ numbers fit. The players might change. There's a LOT of decent players still players still looking for work with 3 weeks remaining before ST starts! This is working depth and the edges, but depth and edges that might increase the WIN total by a handful of games.

But it's also IDEAL by the Twins CLEARING the $17.5M. What if they have to pay down each of Vazquez's and Paddack's salary somewhat? Maybe a combined $5M? Well then, ownership has to allow for a small bump. But what if at least one of these deals brings back ONE of the "needed" options back in a deal? MAYBE it's a RHOF or a solid LHRP? Then ONE of the proposed 4 needs are met as a neutral $ addition. 

There's opportunity for a variety of options for the FO to make this work if things play out right for them, and actually ADD to the 2025 roster. Especially if ownership is willing to bump even a couple $M to field a better team for potential buyers to see. (A comment made by Hayes that I don't think should be dismissed).

Personally, I would drop any illusions that the Twins are IN on Cease. As mixed up as the Padres are right now, i don't believe they would move him unless they got at least 2 TOP prospects/players that are ready now. And i just can't see SWR/Festa/Matthews AND Keaschall for a 1 year rental.

[TheLeviathan]

32 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

7 straight years below .500 isn't bad luck, it's bad performance from the man in charge. There's no parsing needed. 

Apathetic fan bases? The Padres have been drawing 2+ million fans going back to the mid-90s. They drew 1.9 million in 2009, but that's the only year under 2 million since 1995. Until his owner threw massive amounts of cash at the team, they weren't doing any better than they were before he got there. 2017 and 18, his 4th and 5th season in charge they were back down to barely over 2 million.

You don't need to parse anything. AJ Preller didn't do any of that, the owner throwing an unsustainable budget at him made up for his awful performance and got the fan base excited. You would not call 7 years below .500 fun. Or, if you would, then you've been having a lot of fun with the Twins.

3M rabid fans.  A 50% increase from 2M.  Sounds like Padres fans are having fun.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, FargoFanMan said:

I would tend to agree. At the moment a top of the rotation pitcher is presenting itself. When you have the chance to add elite talent at the major league level you do that if you can. This is the opportunity. If they pull it off you’re gonna be mad that he’s not a hitter? We know Cease is a good major league pitcher. Those 3 prospects have no guarantee they’ll ever even make it to the majors let alone provide any value. Cease could get hurt day one. There’s no guarantees but I’d rather take a chance to get a playoff caliber starter for one year than to continually kick the star prospect can down the road. They’re gonna be extremely lucky if one of those 3 prospects even has an above average MLB career let alone all 3. I’m averse to prospects after watching 20 years of Terry Ryan hold onto prospects when he could’ve gone out and got something to supplement the 2000’s twins teams. Sano was supposed to be the next David Ortiz, Buxton was supposed to be the next Griffey, Kyle Gibson was the next Twins ace, Jason Kubel was the next big star. Those guys never came close to that despite the hype. Prospects are just that. Hype. I’d rather help the team now than wait for a super team in 5 years. Cause I’ve been waiting for that super team of prospects for 25 years. 

I respect your position but we will just need to agree to disagree on trading any of our top three bats.  Baltimore was able to trade a couple of good but totally blocked (Joey Ortiz) or repeatedly injured (D.L. Hall) prospects for Corbin Burnes. Those were the #7-8 rated players in the Orioles system (MLB.com) at the time. The Twins don't really have anyone blocking either Rodriguez or Keaschall.

Burnes is a slightly superior pitcher to Cease. If the Twins were to offer Kaelen Culpepper (#4) and Charles Soto (#8) I could get on board. 

In any event I doubt Preller is looking for a prospect as the main piece in a trade for Cease. It seems more like a Cease for Woods Richardson, Larnach, and a guy like Cory Lewis type of deal. I'm not suggesting that but San Diego wants to fill a couple of holes on the current team that are there on day one of the season. Hey, Preller might even demand Julien be included to seal the deal if Vazquez is part of the transaction. That looks like what the Padres want, a SP, LF, DH/1B, and prospect.

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I acknowledged that he’s sold tickets, and that’s not nothing.  But the merry go round is about to stop.  When evaluating these positions one must ask the question-what would have happened if we had done nothing?  

AJ Preller is a net negative.

It’s not just Clase.  Just go look at the list, don’t get too wrapped around individual names.  The sheer volume is astounding. 

I think you can come up with a pretty good list on any GM even Falvey, who never initiates big trades, the only time he did was with Mahle & J Lopez (not Jennifer) & he fell on his face & has become gun-shy. You can blame Preller for putting together a lousy player evaluation & development team or fault him for being quick to trade undeveloped talent which I tend to agree with you or even bad luck. Falvey sometimes likes to trade for a fringe player (Cave) that comes well short of a need (CF backup) giving up an undeveloped talent (Gill). Right now we have a big need at MLB catching depth. The Twins finally addressed the problem by trading for a LAD reject Cartaya who has potential but LAD didn't have the patience to wait another year or roster spot. Cartaya's progress has been slow in the upper MiLB & he just started AAA. Cartaya can be a MLB backup catcher but not this year. For an undeveloped pitcher Vazquez, the fact that LAD is interested in him, makes me wonder. 

One thing that I can't fault him is him being proactive. If there is a need he doesn't sit around & wait for another FO to initiate a deal, he goes out there makes it happen. He doesn't get a bunch of fringe players to throw against the wall hoping one will kind of stick, He goes after bonafide solutions.

[FargoFanMan]

12 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I respect your position but we will just need to agree to disagree on trading any of our top three bats.  Baltimore was able to trade a couple of good but totally blocked (Joey Ortiz) or repeatedly injured (D.L. Hall) prospects for Corbin Burnes. Those were the #7-8 rated players in the Orioles system (MLB.com) at the time. The Twins don't really have anyone blocking either Rodriguez or Keaschall.

Burnes is a slightly superior pitcher to Cease. If the Twins were to offer Kaelen Culpepper (#4) and Charles Soto (#8) I could get on board. 

In any event I doubt Preller is looking for a prospect as the main piece in a trade for Cease. It seems more like a Cease for Woods Richardson, Larnach, and a guy like Cory Lewis type of deal. I'm not suggesting that but San Diego wants to fill a couple of holes on the current team that are there on day one of the season. Hey, Preller might even demand Julien be included to seal the deal if Vazquez is part of the transaction. That looks like what the Padres want, a SP, LF, DH/1B, and prospect.

Can Culpepper be traded? Would they target him? If they want pitchers that are ready now or close to ready would a deal of Vazquez/Larnach/Woods-Richardson/Raya for Cease/Brandon Valenzuela. Valenzuela is their #13 prospect as of 2024 list. He’s an intriguing prospect as a glove first catcher who has shown the ability to get on base and is a switch hitter at AAA. Could compete for a backup catcher role with Camargo/Cartaya. Another intriguing prospect is Francis Peña. A true bullpen arm with an elite fastball and a cutter that could use a bit of tweaking to become elite and be a shutdown bullpen piece.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, FargoFanMan said:

Can Culpepper be traded? Would they target him? If they want pitchers that are ready now or close to ready would a deal of Vazquez/Larnach/Woods-Richardson/Raya for Cease/Brandon Valenzuela. Valenzuela is their #13 prospect as of 2024 list. He’s an intriguing prospect as a glove first catcher who has shown the ability to get on base and is a switch hitter at AAA. Could compete for a backup catcher role with Camargo/Cartaya. Another intriguing prospect is Francis Peña. A true bullpen arm with an elite fastball and a cutter that could use a bit of tweaking to become elite and be a shutdown bullpen piece.

Yes, Culpepper can be traded. The entire movement of Cease (or others) is almost entirely up to Preller. He will ask Baltimore for Grayson Rodriguez or Samuel Basallo or Coby Mayo and he will ask Falvey for two of Festa, Matthews, Keaschall, and Rodriguez. Those are unreasonable requests for Cease. Your proposal and a couple of others put forth here on Twins Daily are more acceptable. The Padres want to find a LF, and DH plus they would need a starting pitcher to take the position of Cease. The Padres have nobody in a couple of spots right now. The Twins might want a RH OF/1B or something else but they actually have a couple of people to field each spot. Whether people like the upside of the current roster is a different question. So a deal for Cease rests with Preller.

[thelanges5]

I’ll start off by admitting that I’m a Gleeman and the Geek bobo. They, along with special guest Dan Hayes, do a great job breaking down the SD rumors. 
 

patreon.com

[FargoFanMan]

10 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Yes, Culpepper can be traded. The entire movement of Cease (or others) is almost entirely up to Preller. He will ask Baltimore for Grayson Rodriguez or Samuel Basallo or Coby Mayo and he will ask Falvey for two of Festa, Matthews, Keaschall, and Rodriguez. Those are unreasonable requests for Cease. Your proposal and a couple of others put forth here on Twins Daily are more acceptable. The Padres want to find a LF, and DH plus they would need a starting pitcher to take the position of Cease. The Padres have nobody in a couple of spots right now. The Twins might want a RH OF/1B or something else but they actually have a couple of people to field each spot. Whether people like the upside of the current roster is a different question. So a deal for Cease rests with Preller.

He needs to fill some positions while dropping payroll. He’s driving a hard bargain but like you said the bag is in Prellers hands. What he gets for Cease ultimately determines the Padres season. The Twins have the pitching and prospect capital to make it happen. With the pitching coming up they should be willing to part with a few guys to bring in a top of the rotation arm for a year and get a draft pick for him via the QO next year.

[FargoFanMan]

36 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

I’ll start off by admitting that I’m a Gleeman and the Geek bobo. They, along with special guest Dan Hayes, do a great job breaking down the SD rumors. 
 

patreon.com

They do and I think they think that it’s a long shot to happen. 

[Doctor Gast]

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Being able to develop players is Preller's job. Literally. Him not being able to build a minor league system that can develop all these stars he's traded away isn't a badge of honor, it's another mark against him. "He can't control how other teams develop players?" What does that mean? So, it's not his fault that his organization can't develop players even though other teams can develop them? It's literally his job to make sure his team can develop players. His job isn't just to "buy and sell."

He's been in charge of the Padres for 11 years and has been trading away stars the whole time while finishing under .500 for the majority of his time in charge (7 of 11 years under .500). He's been awful. He didn't find success until his dying owner threw the budget out the window and let him spend like crazy. He's made the playoffs 3 of 11 seasons. You think Falvey's been bad and should be fired? He's been in charge for 8 years. Preller's first season of finishing above .500 was in his 8th season in charge. Preller's been horrible. Totally terrible.

How would the Twins have fared in the NL West? Let's compare apples to apples.

"You can blame Preller for putting together a lousy player evaluation & development team or fault him for being quick to trade undeveloped talent which I tend to agree with you".- My quotation 

I agree that it's Preller's job is to delegate the right people in drafting, player evaluation & development & he's responsible. Like, so often I complain about Falvey or even Conger, and you come back with it's not their job. Who's responsible for catching development that knows what they are doing if not Conger & Falvey? Now getting back to GMs, GM don't delegate buying or selling players that's their job. Do you blame Preller for trading Soto?

You want to debate me about if Preller was a good GM or not, I don't care that's not my point. My point that you missed  is that I appreciate him for being proactive.