How Simeon Woods Richardson Can Find Another Level In 2025

[Eric Blonigen]

Over the span of perhaps 18 months, Simeon Woods Richardson went from top prospect, to organizational depth, to next man up, to good backend starter. In 2025, he just might cement his status as a legitimate mid-rotation weapon. All it’ll take is one of several tweaks.

Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images

In 2023, Simeon Woods Richardson tumbled down prospect lists—both national and Twins-specific—due to a drop in already underwhelming velocity. He was getting shelled even at Triple-A St. Paul. Entering 2024, Woods Richardson had a lot to prove in order to get his career back on track. The good news? He rose to the occasion. He had one of the largest year-over-year upticks in velocity of any player in baseball, averaging 93 and hitting 97 on his heater after struggling to average even 90 the year before. He worked on his curveball, and blew past his career high in innings. Cody Christie wrote a great piece in June, breaking down the mechanical tweaks that led to this breakout.

Based on these improvements, for two-thirds of the season, Woods Richardson put up mid-rotation results, with a 3.69 ERA through his first 22 starts, even if the underlying metrics weren’t quite so favorable. But, he threw his five-ish innings every fifth day, continued to prove his detractors wrong, and occasionally flashed brilliance on the bump.

Then, the bottom fell out down the stretch. Over the final six weeks of the season, the rookie’s velocity was way down, and he just seemed tired. And he probably was! When Joe Ryan went down for the season, Woods Richardson was thrust into the unenviable position of being a third starter for a playoff-caliber team desperately clinging to hopes of a deep postseason run, and doing it when the Twins weren’t scoring many runs due to having several impact bats on the shelf with a variety of injuries.

Ultimately, Woods Richardson probably has a ceiling in the role he was put into too early: a good third starter on a playoff team. What will it take for him to get there? The good news for him (and for the Twins) is that there are several paths to that reality: conditioning to help him stay stronger down the stretch, adding additional velocity to help his fastball play up, tweaking his pitch mix to increase his strikeout rate, or establishing better command with his changeup, to turn it into a reliable out pitch. The even better news? If he can do two of those things (asking a lot, I know), he could cement himself into the conversation to become a true rotational building block.

This piece won’t dive deeply into all of these possibilities, as much ink has been spilled by other Twins Daily writers over the past several months. So, read those for more info if you are curious. I’ll link to to all of them inline.

Conditioning
This one is pretty straightforward. Woods Richardson is 6-foot-3, with a lanky frame. Adding a bit of muscle may help him avoid tiring as the season progresses. Simply finding the fuel to be consistent over a 162-game season will be a difference-maker. That alone would have him likely putting up an ERA in the high 3s. That’s mid-rotation stuff, and will keep him in the rotation long-term.

Adding Velocity
Look, this may be easier said than done. On the heels of a substantial uptick in velocity, it may not be realistic to expect the same in a second consecutive offseason. But, the Twins coaching staff has done it before with Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan. Both have seen steady and significant increases in their velo, which has helped both transform themselves into borderline frontline starters. 

In 2024, Woods Richardson's fastball Stuff+ was a less-than-ideal 71. If he can add even a couple more ticks to his fastball, his 34th-percentile heater velocity would approach average, and his above-average extension could even make this a plus pitch.

Locating His Changeup
Matt Lenz recently put up a nice video piece on Woods Richardson's command, and specifically, his ability to locate his changeup. In it, Lenz points out that Woods Richardson gets good horizontal movement on the change, and that his Stuff+ on the pitch is above average, but he gets clobbered due to poor location, too often hitting the heart of the plate. If he is able to hit his spots low and away, this has the potential to be a truly plus pitch that can befuddle opposing hitters.

Pitch Mix
Matt Braun did some analysis showing that Woods Richardson would benefit from tweaking his pitch mix to throw his changeup more, since it has the potential to be his best pitch. As mentioned above, this is predicated upon being able to locate. Matt also identified that Woods Richardson should use his curve more when he’s in 1-0 counts. When he does, he gets great results.

Overall, these are relatively straightforward options that could help Simeon Woods Richardson not just repeat his breakout 2024 season, but instead, become the next significant pitching success story for the Twins, and one that can help the Twins contend for the next several years. The real question might be just what he’s capable of. What do you think?

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[sweetmusicviola16]

Whatever he probably needs to work on is his conditioning. He's averaged like 4.2 IP for his whole career. That doesn't cut it. It taxes the BP big time even if his individual numbers are OK. Kick it up an inning would help.

[mnfireman]

Agree that he probably ran out of gas at the end of last season - after his August 21 start he had 22 starts, 112.1 IP (5.1 IP/start), a 5-3 record (team record 15-7), 3.69 ERA (3.92 FIP fwiw), 13 HR allowed with a 99/35 K/BB ratio. Over his last 6 starts he had 21.1 IP (3.6 IP/start), a 0-2 record (team record 2-4), 6.75 ERA (5.14 FIP fwiw), 3 HR allowed and a 18/13 K/BB ratio.

He, like the rest of the team, tired/faded down the stretch

[DJL44]

Batters had a hard time hitting his pitches with the barrel. He looked like he was adding and subtracting velocity to throw off timing. If he can change speeds and locate pitches he won't need to add any more velocity.

[DocBauer]

I have subtle questions about SWR going forward, and not because of his late season fade. My questions about him are tied to simply being a ML sophomore, and will he adapt from all he's experienced and learned, or will batters adjust more. Just questions about being a typical sophomore. 

I've read about his offspeed stuff having good STUFF+ ratings, FWIW. But there's a difference when you face ML batters. If he can maintain 93mph, give or take pitch to pitch, and can improve his change, I've got a lot more faith in him going forward.

Could he add velocity? Perhaps. His arm and body need to adjust to 162 game schedule. He needs to at least MAINTAIN velocity, even if it doesn't climb. But he's young enough, and lanky enough, that a little more muscle and maturation might add a tick. But the numbers @mnfiremanpposted show a rookie who kept his team in games more often than not.

IDK if he's got the K per 9 ability of Lopez, Ober, Ryan, and Festa, but there's a lot of ways to get guys out. Personally, while I love and appreciate K's and what they mean, if he only continues to K 7.9 per 9 but keeps the ball in the yard, doesn't BB many, and gets tons of outs on grounders, pop ups, liners, etc, and gets the job done I'm OK with that. 

But a couple more K's per game, a few less pitchers per inning, he could be that much better. 

Build his body up for endurance, get a better handle on his change, he could be a potential 8.5-9K arm who can go 6 IP, even without any big tick up in velocity. 

What impressed me the most about SWR during 2024 was about late June, through July, and some in early August before he ran out of gas was his demeanor on the mound. This also seemed to conside with him pitching 5+ IP at that time, but he became more animated. He wasn't showing off and pumping a fist, but he had a sort of "strut" on the mound. It was like he was saying to himself, "I got this. I can do this."

I think character wise and confidence he's fine. A better change, more endurance, I think he's got the ability to be a quality ML SP. I'm still not sure Festa isn't the Twins #4 starter really soon though.

*side comment: I was disappointed he changed his number from 78. Somehow, that number just seemed to fit him and all the miles he's traveled to reach this level.

[Fatbat]

Agreed @DocBauer SWR &the 78s had a nice ring to it. I’m excited to see that mound presence that he had when he was rolling. 

[Fezig]

Work on his body? Absolutely. I'm all for building muscle, but every other day should be leg day. 

I remember in my days of yore that starting pitchers would go into the clubhouse and hit the stationary bike after the game. The pitchers that did that were the HOF type guys, not the guys who could barely finish five innings. 

 

[Otaknam]

Unless his velocity is consistently 95 or higher and his secondary pitches improve, I don’t see SWR as a mid rotation starter. But he could improve going forward.

[mnfireman]

12 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Unless his velocity is consistently 95 or higher and his secondary pitches improve, I don’t see SWR as a mid rotation starter. But he could improve going forward.

There were 28 MLB SP that threw at least 130 IP and averaged 95 MPH on their 4 seamer, less than 1 per team. Lopez averaged 95.1, Ryan 94, and Ober 91.7. SWR averaged 93.

I don't think anybody on here expects him to be more than a mid-rotation SP, but a 5 man rotation made up of all #2 and #3 starters should do alright.

 

[gman]

Last year SWR averaged about 80 pitches a game. If he can get his stamina up to 90-95 I think we should see a guy closer to a 6 inning pitcher. I don't care that much about strikeouts just get outs.

His infield may not have done him many favors last year. Although it was a small sample size, he average about 1/2 the number of groundouts on turf as real grass.