The Darnold Decision

[Parfigliano]

6 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Darnold is making this decision more difficult every game. If he leads the team to the NFC Championship game idk how you can let him walk. Kwesi had a plan but plans change. At the very least he should get the franchise tag. 

Good idea tag him.  

[Vanimal46]

18 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Good idea tag him.  

At a minimum tag him. If Kwesi is a true analytics guy he’s not going to let Darnold walk without getting market value out of him. He’s worth at least a 1st round pick in a trade at this point. 

[RpR]

Use what is working!

NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High

More analytics haven’t increased the success rate

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high

[Aggies7]

Listening to the talking heads on sports radio (I know I know) today and people are starting to talk about the Vikings bringing darnold back. Colin cowherd backs the idea that sam MAY take a bit less money to stay in Minnesota. The idea being that he’s already played for rebuilding bad teams and it didn’t go well. With the unknown of McCarthy, I’m thinking more and more that the Vikings will make an effort to bring him back. He’s easily been top 10 overall this season.

[nicksaviking]

I'm torn. All I've wanted since 2009 is to have a top tier QB to give this team the best shot at a championship. Cousins was really good but was missing that gun-slinging, neck-stomping factor. I'm not sure Darnold has that either, but I'm also not sure that he doesn't.

Thankfully we should be able to wait until after the season to decide. The playoffs usually give you a great feel if the QB has that 'IT' factor.

[gunnarthor]

50 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm torn. All I've wanted since 2009 is to have a top tier QB to give this team the best shot at a championship. Cousins was really good but was missing that gun-slinging, neck-stomping factor. I'm not sure Darnold has that either, but I'm also not sure that he doesn't.

Thankfully we should be able to wait until after the season to decide. The playoffs usually give you a great feel if the QB has that 'IT' factor.

One of the reasons I thought we might reverse and keep course is because of how gun-slingy he looked Sunday. I think this was the first game where I was thinking that Darnold, not KOC, was actually running the offense, if that makes sense. 

[nicksaviking]

6 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

One of the reasons I thought we might reverse and keep course is because of how gun-slingy he looked Sunday. I think this was the first game where I was thinking that Darnold, not KOC, was actually running the offense, if that makes sense. 

Agreed. I think the QBs that CAN carry a team to a championship improvise, redirect routes and flat out defy the play calls once in a while. Not just going to the prescribed audibles but actually winging it from time to time. I think Darnold was doing some of that last game too, but it's hard to tell.

[TheLeviathan]

I think at this point they may want to see if he's open to a nice fat raise and another one year deal.

This decision could really screw over the franchise, though, if done incorrectly.

[nicksaviking]

22 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I think at this point they may want to see if he's open to a nice fat raise and another one year deal.

This decision could really screw over the franchise, though, if done incorrectly.

QB pay sucks right now, but the one good thing in this situation is that it basically escalates based on timing more so than actual play. So even if he's MVP in 2025, he's probably getting about the same deal anyway (and if he stinks or just average, you say goodbye). Jackson is the 8th highest paid QB, Mahomes is 12th and Allen is 14th; as designed, it's not based on merit.

So, if there's still some question, I think the best move would be to franchise tag him and if he proves to be an elite QB, then do the deal the following year in 2026. Based on the past trends, it will be about 5M per year more than it would have been in 2025, I can live with that as it will still basically be market rate and you'd have that extra year of evaluation to see if he's legit or a fluke.

After all, if they turned the keys to McCarthy, he'd already be looking at a new deal in 2027 anyway. 

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

QB pay sucks right now, but the one good thing in this situation is that it basically escalates based on timing more so than actual play. So even if he's MVP in 2025, he's probably getting about the same deal anyway (and if he stinks or just average, you say goodbye). Jackson is the 8th highest paid QB, Mahomes is 12th and Allen is 14th; as designed, it's not based on merit.

So, if there's still some question, I think the best move would be to franchise tag him and if he proves to be an elite QB, then do the deal the following year in 2026. Based on the past trends, it will be about 5M per year more than it would have been in 2025, I can live with that as it will still basically be market rate and you'd have that extra year of evaluation to see if he's legit or a fluke.

After all, if they turned the keys to McCarthy, he'd already be looking at a new deal in 2027 anyway. 

I think if you're willing to franchise tag him, you have the conversation on a 1 year, 30M deal.  Something in that neighborhood.

I have no idea what I'd do as Kwesi though, he's forced their hand in a really positive but really tough way.

And now @RpRcan add nothing but a trolling laugh to my post apparently.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Your biased opinion was laughable, nothing more.

Your input, as always, brings the conversation to new heights.  

[Vanimal46]

The Darnold decision may come down to this. Darnold is a boat. McCarthy could be anything, even a boat! 

[TheLeviathan]

17 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The Darnold decision may come down to this. Darnold is a boat. McCarthy could be anything, even a boat! 

Do you have any concern we'll be Daniel Jonesing it?

[Vanimal46]

7 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Do you have any concern we'll be Daniel Jonesing it?

Of course. There’s always a risk signing a player off a career year. Between now and March I’ll flip back and forth on it 100 more times. If I had to decide today I’d give him a 3 year deal with $100 mill guaranteed. But that’s with him playing the best football of his life over the last month. Hopefully he keeps it up the next 3 weeks against our division opponents and the playoffs. 

[TheLeviathan]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

Of course. There’s always a risk signing a player off a career year. Between now and March I’ll flip back and forth on it 100 more times. If I had to decide today I’d give him a 3 year deal with $100 mill guaranteed. But that’s with him playing the best football of his life over the last month. Hopefully he keeps it up the next 3 weeks against our division opponents and the playoffs. 

Right now I'm on "I wouldn't do it".  Though he's been making it a really difficult decision lately.

[Aggies7]

Daniel Jones’ greatest year of his career pales in comparison to what Darnold has already done though. Darnold already has almost double the TD passes that jones had in all of 2022. He’s already had more yards (with almost 100 fewer attempts), a higher completion percentage, higher passer rating, and more wins. Jones threw less picks and ran for more yards. I guess we’ll see how many playoff wins, if any, Darnold can accrue since jones had that one against us.

[nicksaviking]

14 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Right now I'm on "I wouldn't do it".  Though he's been making it a really difficult decision lately.

Yeah, I'm all over the idea of tagging him now. I'm not sure 3 for 100M gets it done anyway, as that was Baker Mayfield's deal last year. Mayfield proved to be a bargain, Darnold has been better and is younger than Mayfield last year, this QB draft class is significantly weaker and there's no Kirk Cousins in free agency. Darnold might get closer to last year's Cousins deal.

Tagging him all but eliminates getting tied to a fluke and I don't know that you'd save a ton by waiting a year for an extension if that's what's called for in the end.

[gunnarthor]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, I'm all over the idea of tagging him now. I'm not sure 3 for 100M gets it done anyway, as that was Baker Mayfield's deal last year. Mayfield proved to be a bargain, Darnold has been better and is younger than Mayfield last year, this QB draft class is significantly weaker and there's no Kirk Cousins in free agency. Darnold might get closer to last year's Cousins deal.

Tagging him all but eliminates getting tied to a fluke and I don't know that you'd save a ton by waiting a year for an extension if that's what's called for in the end.

I haven't heard it reported but often in one-year make good deals, there is a no tagging clause. Doesn't sound like Darnold has one though.

I read an article that basically said the Vikings should tag him and then trade him for the Rams first rounder in this draft and a future 3rd or 4th round pick. Rams would then give him a four year deal. Don't have the link.

[nicksaviking]

18 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I haven't heard it reported but often in one-year make good deals, there is a no tagging clause. Doesn't sound like Darnold has one though.

I read an article that basically said the Vikings should tag him and then trade him for the Rams first rounder in this draft and a future 3rd or 4th round pick. Rams would then give him a four year deal. Don't have the link.

Yeah, I've heard other national guys suggest tagging him too and someone on KFAN specifically said Darnold doesn't have it in his contract to avoid it.

Not sure I'd trade him unless I'm convinced McCarthy is legit, but that's a great option to have.

[Vanimal46]

He’s playing like a top 5 QB… Unless he is the sole reason we lose in the playoffs, we have to extend him. 

[gunnarthor]

45 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

He’s playing like a top 5 QB… Unless he is the sole reason we lose in the playoffs, we have to extend him. 

I love that he's making this an issue.

[Aggies7]

That final TD throw to JJ…he got bleeping leveled and threw a perfect pass. If there’s one throw that signifies his unbelievable season it’s that one. Go watch the replay, he got decked. 

[Parfigliano]

6 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

That final TD throw to JJ…he got bleeping leveled and threw a perfect pass. If there’s one throw that signifies his unbelievable season it’s that one. Go watch the replay, he got decked. 

Definitely stood in there knowing the hit was coming and threw a strike

[TheLeviathan]

Apologize for this DocBauer-like post....So this game really forces the conversation IMO.  Let's lay it out:

* Vikings currently have about 75M in cap room in 2025.  If they francise Darnold that will eat up 40M of it right off the bat.  

* They will need to make decisions on Bynum and Murphy.  They will need a running back.  They likely lose Patrick Jones and most of their DT rotation is a FA.  They also need a guard and probably a center.

* They have no picks basically other than the first rounder.

So....long story short.  I have no freaking idea what they should do.  It feels like - and I am cringing and giving myself a mild heart attack typing this - that they should try and lock Darnold in at a good rate and trade McCarthy?  Would the Rams give you pick 23 and a 3rd for him?  Maybe Pittsburgh do the same thing?  Aim higher and offer him to San Fran?

If you sign Darnold to a 4 year 120M deal (probably too low, but just go with it) you retain plenty of salary cap space to keep building around him.  Darnold likely is open to something like that as it's life changing money in a place that has changed his career.  You can go out and throw an obscene amount of money at DJ Reed to play CB.  Or Trey Smith to play guard.  (Hell...you might be able to do both)

Draft the best DT available at your picks.  Find the best RB you can with the mid tier picks.  

But so much of that hinges on what you can get for McCarthy.  So after all that, I feel good about none of what I said.

[Aggies7]

5 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Apologize for this DocBauer-like post....So this game really forces the conversation IMO.  Let's lay it out:

* Vikings currently have about 75M in cap room in 2025.  If they francise Darnold that will eat up 40M of it right off the bat.  

* They will need to make decisions on Bynum and Murphy.  They will need a running back.  They likely lose Patrick Jones and most of their DT rotation is a FA.  They also need a guard and probably a center.

* They have no picks basically other than the first rounder.

So....long story short.  I have no freaking idea what they should do.  It feels like - and I am cringing and giving myself a mild heart attack typing this - that they should try and lock Darnold in at a good rate and trade McCarthy?  Would the Rams give you pick 23 and a 3rd for him?  Maybe Pittsburgh do the same thing?  Aim higher and offer him to San Fran?

If you sign Darnold to a 4 year 120M deal (probably too low, but just go with it) you retain plenty of salary cap space to keep building around him.  Darnold likely is open to something like that as it's life changing money in a place that has changed his career.  You can go out and throw an obscene amount of money at DJ Reed to play CB.  Or Trey Smith to play guard.  (Hell...you might be able to do both)

Draft the best DT available at your picks.  Find the best RB you can with the mid tier picks.  

But so much of that hinges on what you can get for McCarthy.  So after all that, I feel good about none of what I said.

One of the national talking heads also brought up trading McCarthy last week. Yes, you’re counting on Darnold not regressing next season. But he’s now had 7 games this year with multiple TDs and zero picks. It’s not like the offensive line is amazing or the run game is dominant. He’s been carrying the team to a lot of these wins. That one horrible game in Jacksonville was the only time he looked like a fraud. 
 

And SD is much younger than anyone seems to realize. I just don’t see how you can watch the games this year and let that man walk out the door for a totally unproven guy coming off of an injury. Someone might overpay for McCarthy and help us shore up some loose ends.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Aggies7 said:

And SD is much younger than anyone seems to realize. I just don’t see how you can watch the games this year and let that man walk out the door

Darnold only turns 28 in training camp next year. What you said is where I’m at. This has gone better than any one of us could imagine. He seems like a pretty even keel, humble type of person. I can’t see him holding the Vikings over the flames for a $60+ million per year contract. After the disaster he went through in NYJ and Carolina I think he will take good, not great money to stay in a well coached and supported organization. 

[Mike Sixel]

I see no way they let him go unless he utterly chokes games away the rest of the way 

[gunnarthor]

I think he'll require 45m or more each season. Let's see how this plays out - the next two games are huge - but I've gone from "no way he comes back" to 60/40 he'll be back. Minimum, i think we tag him and trade him. I don't think we will let him walk. 

The vikes could resign him and hold McCarthy for a bit. Let him play most of the preseason games to increase his value. 

But agree with Levi that the vikes have other areas to address. I think bringing back Murphy is nearly as important. 

[Mike Sixel]

Trading one of the ten best QBs to rely on a guy with one snap in the preseason who blew out his knee when no one thought he was really hurt? Gutsy.

[Danchat]

44 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Trading one of the ten best QBs to rely on a guy with one snap in the preseason who blew out his knee when no one thought he was really hurt? Gutsy.

He's playing like a top 10 QB, but is he actually one? I think the environment around him has been a major factor in his success and I would be absolutely fine rolling with JJ and a high end backup like Daniel Jones, and in case JJ has injury problems they can elevate Jones' abilities like Darnold did.

If Sam wants to come back on a team-friendly deal I'd be open to it, but if he wants to be paid like a top 10 QB then he is free to get his bag on the market and see how he does in a lesser environment. We need a new interior OL, at least 2 CBs, and an interior pass rushers and we won't be finding most of that in the draft.

Ultimately, I will trust in what O'Connell and the front office decide on. And what happens in the playoffs.