Time to Send Parmelee Down

[Ultima Ratio]

Did someone actually say that Doumit is not a terrible option in RF?http://deephousepage.com/smilies/stupid.gif

[Brock Beauchamp]

Really, can you quantify that? Because I'm confident that we'd be looking at around .130 points of OPS drop at 1B playing Parmelee instead of Mauer. Parmelee has 3500 professional at bats to back that confidence up.

 

1. Mauer is one of the better defensive catchers in the league and is certainly no worse than average. We can all agree on that.

 

2. Doumit is widely regarded to be the worst defensive catcher in the league by pretty much everybody.

 

3. Catcher is the most important defensive position on the field.

 

You're looking at this backwards. Mauer's offense isn't part of this discussion. Joe's bat is in the lineup no matter who plays where.

 

What will net a higher result?

 

Mauer defense at C + Parmelee offense at 1B - Doumit offense at DH/RF

 

or

 

Doumit defense at C + Doumit offense at C - Parmelee offense at 1B/RF

 

While I don't trust the metric much, Doumit's dWAR has been in the negative 6 of the 9 years he has been in MLB. Couple that with the eyeball test, other metrics that say he's awful behind the dish, and general scout/analyst agreement that he's awful and it's not hard to determine that he'd do some real damage behind the plate 130 games a year.

 

Also, Doumit is due for a continued regression as he enters his mid-30s while Parmelee has a decent chance to trend upward.

 

But wait, there's more:

 

Ryan Doumit's 2013 OPS+ is 97.

 

Chris Parmelee's 2013 OPS+ is 93.

 

Ryan Doumit's 2013 WAR: FanGraphs 0.1, BB-Ref 0.2.

 

Chris Parmelee's 2013 WAR: FanGraphs 0.0, BB-Ref 0.9.

 

Methinks you're not looking at this very objectively. I love the fact that Ryan Doumit is on this team as a backup C/DH/RF. But if you're going to bet on the future, you give Parmelee ABs to see if he can hit MLB pitching.

 

And, again, you never answered my question:

 

What do the Twins have to lose by playing Parmelee in 2013? You can argue that there is little upside in playing Chris but there is upside, small though it may be. On the other hand, there is no real downside to letting him play through struggles in a 74 win season. At the very least, you leave the season knowing whether he's a viable option to start in 2014.

[Mike Sixel]

Parmalee should be starting at 1B no later than the trade deadline. Either Justin is dealt, or they just play Parmalee anyway. REALLY need to see what they have in him, or not.

[ericchri]

I know this has been stated before, and RiverBrian was essentially implying this earlier in the thread, but putting a little effort into building the lineup by Gardenhire (or maybe Steinbach as rumors are the bench coach actually does something to assist the manager) could easily find fairly consistent playing time for everyone.

 

You have Willingham, Arcia, Doumit, Morneau, Parmelee, and Mauer (6 players) to hold down Catcher, Left Field, Right Field, 1st Base, DH (5 positions). How hard is it to basically rotate the one person who isn't playing each day such that all those guys are playing 5 out of every 6 games? Willingham has a bad knee, Doumit is terrible defensively, Arcia is a rookie who seems a little shaky in the field, Morneau seems to have lost his power stroke, Mauer needs days off from catching. Outside of Mauer, none of them are tearing the league apart, why is it Parmelee who only gets to play once or twice a week?

[orangevening]

Me thinks that Gardy has this rotation in mind, but goes with the right match up vs pitcher, who needs rest, who is hot, etc. Which is the really the way to go vs. just pure rotation.

[Guest USAFChief]

Did someone actually say that Doumit is not a terrible option in RF?http://deephousepage.com/smilies/stupid.gif

Yes. I did.

 

He's not.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Me thinks that Gardy has this rotation in mind, but goes with the right match up vs pitcher, who needs rest, who is hot, etc. Which is the really the way to go vs. just pure rotation.

 

Except that Parmelee seems to be the odd man out more often than anyone else.

 

OPS against RHP:

 

Parmelee: .742

Willingham: .747

Doumit: .710

 

If you're platooning based on splits, Chris should still be getting quite a bit of playing time, particularly if you factor in OF defense, where Willingham and Doumit more closely resemble trees than baseball players.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yes. I did.

 

He's not.

 

He might not be "terrible" but he's really, really bad.

 

Every defensive metric has him well into the negative numbers in the OF over his career, which lines up with my eyeball test of "ugh".

[ThePuck]

He might not be "terrible" but he's really, really bad.

 

Every defensive metric has him well into the negative numbers in the OF over his career, which lines up with my eyeball test of "ugh".

 

Yes, he has zero business playing OF. Backup catcher and DH should be it for him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yes, he has zero business playing OF. Backup catcher and DH should be it for him.

 

If he starts 20 games in the OF to get his bat in the lineup, I have no problem with that.

 

But not every day or even every other day. Hell, not even every third day.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Chris Parmelee:

Last 7 days: .500/.500/.1.200 (1.700)

Last 14 days: .350/.350/.750 (1.100)

Last 28 days: .288/.354/.525 (.879)

 

Something seems to be working. Cannot say exactly what it is, but the trends certainly isn't all bad.

 

I also think that his play in RF has been a very pleasant surprise to most of us.

 

This Parmelee story has a ways to go before it plays out.

[Otto von Ballpark]

OPS against RHP:

 

Parmelee: .742

Willingham: .747

Doumit: .710

 

If you're platooning based on splits, Chris should still be getting quite a bit of playing time, particularly if you factor in OF defense, where Willingham and Doumit more closely resemble trees than baseball players.

So we're basing playing time decisions on partial season platoon splits now? Doumit is almost an .800 OPS guy vs RHP career (and was .823 last year), and Willingham is .838 OVERALL for his career with a pretty tiny split (.828 career vs RHP).

 

The fact that Parmelee is barely keeping pace with a slumping Willingham, and not far outpacing our slumping backup catcher, is not a very good endorsement of more playing time for Chris.

 

I'm in favor of playing the young guys too, but Parmelee is nearing the end of his leash -- he hasn't posted a monthly OPS higher than .750 since his Sept. 2011 debut, and a .750 OPS is still below MLB average for 1B and RF.

 

As much as it might help the Twins to figure out if Parmelee can be a cheap cromulent 1B/RF, it's also worth knowing whether Willingham or Doumit are actually cooked or just slumping this year. Both were plus bats last year, and are under contract at reasonable rates for next season. At this point, both are probably more likely to be positive contributors in 2014 than Parmelee.

[Mike Sixel]

So basically, not every decision is easy......that is kind of the hard part of having a roster of guys that are all kind of the same right now.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm in favor of playing the young guys too, but Parmelee is nearing the end of his leash -- he hasn't posted a monthly OPS higher than .750 since his Sept. 2011 debut, and a .750 OPS is still below MLB average for 1B and RF.

 

That number is a little disingenuous. Chris posted exactly a .750 OPS in May and is at .795 for the month of June.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Chris Parmelee:

Last 7 days: .500/.500/.1.200 (1.700)

Last 14 days: .350/.350/.750 (1.100)

Last 28 days: .288/.354/.525 (.879)

 

Something seems to be working. Cannot say exactly what it is, but the trends certainly isn't all bad.

 

I also think that his play in RF has been a very pleasant surprise to most of us.

 

This Parmelee story has a ways to go before it plays out.

That's basically the last two games, and mostly Saturday's. If you had run this report Saturday afternoon, this is what you would have seen:

 

Last 7 days: .250/.250/.375 (.625)

Last 14 days: 200/.238/.300 (.538)

Last 28 days: .255/.328/.436 (.764)

 

One or two games does not a trend make!

[Otto von Ballpark]

That number is a little disingenuous. Chris posted exactly a .750 OPS in May and is at .795 for the month of June.

Nothing disingenuous about it. He also posted a .750 OPS last September. Problem is, if his PEAK month is a .750 OPS, he's going to be a well below average hitter at 1B or RF. He really needs to AVERAGE a .750 OPS and so far he's nowhere near that.

 

And his June 2013 OPS was .542 before Saturday night's game.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Nothing disingenuous about it. He also posted a .750 OPS last September. Problem is, if his PEAK month is a .750 OPS, he's going to be a well below average hitter at 1B or RF. He really needs to AVERAGE a .750 OPS and so far he's nowhere near that.

 

And his June 2013 OPS was .542 before Saturday night's game.

 

That doesn't mean it counts for less. That's the problem with using SSS in the first place. Lots of fluctuation up and down.

 

The entire point of playing Parmelee is to find out if he can hit MLB pitching. Over the past 55 days, he has done an adequate job of just that, posting a .770-ish OPS.

 

And I keep asking this question that no one will answer:

 

What do the Twins have to lose by playing Parmelee in 2013? Neither Doumit nor Willingham factor into the Twins next contending team. Why would you play them over the 26 year old to give him one last shot at succeeding?

 

If he succeeds, good for him. That's one less roster spot to fill in 2014. If he fails, too bad. Now you know you need a first baseman in 2014.

[Mike Sixel]

That doesn't mean it counts for less. That's the problem with using SSS in the first place. Lots of fluctuation up and down.

 

The entire point of playing Parmelee is to find out if he can hit MLB pitching. Over the past 55 days, he has done an adequate job of just that, posting a .770-ish OPS.

 

And I keep asking this question that no one will answer:

 

What do the Twins have to lose by playing Parmelee in 2013? Neither Doumit nor Willingham factor into the Twins next contending team. Why would you play them over the 26 year old to give him one last shot at succeeding?

 

If he succeeds, good for him. That's one less roster spot to fill in 2014. If he fails, too bad. Now you know you need a first baseman in 2014.

 

This, 100% this.

[stringer bell]

BTW, I take full credit for Parmelee's little surge in Cleveland since I called for him to be banished to the minors after he struck out Friday night.

 

I will soon be starting threads to demote Diamond and Walters!

[twinsnorth49]

And I keep asking this question that no one will answer:

 

What do the Twins have to lose by playing Parmelee in 2013? Neither Doumit nor Willingham factor into the Twins next contending team. Why would you play them over the 26 year old to give him one last shot at succeeding?

 

If he succeeds, good for him. That's one less roster spot to fill in 2014. If he fails, too bad. Now you know you need a first baseman in 2014.

 

Well the answer given by those against this logic is that he's clearly not going to get any better anyway, he's had enough time to prove it and this is what he is.

 

It's the wrong answer but it's the one they've given. It seems soley based on the possibilty that we might win a few more games this year, like it matters.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well the answer given by those against this logic is that he's clearly not going to get any better anyway, he's had enough time to prove it and this is what he is.

 

It's the wrong answer but it's the one they've given. It seems soley based on the possibilty that we might win a few more games this year, like it matters.

 

It's a little amazing that such an argument would be made by people who watched Trevor Plouffe turn into a completely different player just one year ago.

 

I'm not saying Parmelee will do the same (I don't expect much from him) but given the fact that 2-3 wins don't matter one lick this season, may as well let the kid hack away for a couple of months and see what happens.

[TheLeviathan]

Have people actually looked at how Parms has received his ABs?

 

He's had exactly two months of solid at bats. Since when does that make or break big league careers? That's absurd. Torii Hunter and a multitude of other professional players shake their heads at the absurdity of that kind of judgement.

 

That isn't a guarantee that he'll produce, but the idea that he's proven himself incapable is just bizarre to me.

[Willihammer]

And I keep asking this question that no one will answer:

 

What do the Twins have to lose by playing Parmelee in 2013? Neither Doumit nor Willingham factor into the Twins next contending team. Why would you play them over the 26 year old to give him one last shot at succeeding?

 

If he succeeds, good for him. That's one less roster spot to fill in 2014. If he fails, too bad. Now you know you need a first baseman in 2014.

 

Nobody knows where this team will end up, whether its 70 wins or 80 or 88. Its June 24, there are 90 games left. Until the magic number approaches zero, I expect Gardy to field his best 9 every day without regard for 2014 and especially not for one lousy player's development. That's what the minor leagues are for.

 

There's only 40 places on the roster. You don't sacrifice entire years or games or even 1 at bat hoping for Jose Bautista type turnabouts from guys. Parmelee is 26, not 21. The verdict is in. He's not the answer at 1B now or in the future.

 

By the way, where's the battle cry for Clete Thomas? He experienced a similar hot streak in AAA after years of mediocrity too!

[jokin]

BTW, I take full credit for Parmelee's little surge in Cleveland since I called for him to be banished to the minors after he struck out Friday night.

 

I will soon be starting threads to demote Diamond and Walters!

 

By all means, stringer, carry on! I was a little worried when Willinghammer failed to castigate Parms yesterday. After another good performance on Sunday, I was thinking he had blasted Chris more than enough in the previous 2 days, plus the body of work in "Time to send Parmelee down" thread, to insure that Parmelee would stay hot for at least another week. And now it turns out, your additional "consistent negativity" has also provided fuel for the fire. Keep it up!

 

( I am going to follow through with this, and I fully expect Stringerbell dressing-downs of both, branding them as AAAA suspects, that have no place on the roster, followed of course, by shutout gems, at a minimum, in Diamond's and Walters' next starts).

[jokin]

Nobody knows where this team will end up, whether its 70 wins or 80 or 88. Its June 24, there are 90 games left. Until the magic number approaches zero, I expect Gardy to field his best 9 every day without regard for 2014 and especially not for one lousy player's development. That's what the minor leagues are for.

 

There's only 40 places on the roster. You don't sacrifice entire years hoping for Jose Bautista type turnabouts from guys. Parmelee is 26, not 21. The verdict is in. He's not the answer at 1B now or in the future.

 

By the way, where's the battle cry for Clete Thomas? He experienced a similar hot streak in AAA after years of mediocrity too!

 

Wow. What a relief! I get what you're doing here, magnifying the insult level- pure genius at work here, hammer- Tony Robbins is a shrinking violet by comparison. You've now insured the spell will not be broken for yet another game. Does Parm have you on as his life coach, yet?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Nobody knows where this team will end up, whether its 70 wins or 80 or 88. Its June 24, there are 90 games left. Until the magic number approaches zero, I expect Gardy to field his best 9 every day without regard for 2014 and especially not for one lousy player's development. That's what the minor leagues are for.

 

It doesn't matter if this team wins 88 games. They're not going to pass Detroit under any circumstances and they're certainly not going to win a wild card spot.

 

There's only 40 places on the roster. You don't sacrifice entire years hoping for Jose Bautista type turnabouts from guys. Parmelee is 26, not 21. The verdict is in. He's not the answer at 1B now or in the future.

 

By the way, where's the battle cry for Clete Thomas? He experienced a similar hot streak in AAA after years of mediocrity too!

 

You seem awfully certain of this verdict thing. What are your thoughts on 2012 Trevor Plouffe? Because his career arc before June of 2012 was almost identical to Parmelee (well, except that Chris was a much better hitter).

 

And LOL at Clete Thomas. Seriously. The dude is 29 years old to Chris' 26. He has a MiLB OPS of .748 to Chris' .820. Yeah, that's pretty much the same thing.

[Willihammer]

It doesn't matter if this team wins 88 games. They're not going to pass Detroit under any circumstances and they're certainly not going to win a wild card spot.

 

I'm done quibbling after this. The bottom line is that I don't share this board's excitement about punting major league at bats for long shot causes. Unlike 2B or 3B, there are at least 3 or 4 better options available in RF or 1B/DH on the 40 man. I'd be arguing the same about Plouffe if he was taking time from a Korey Koskie or established and productive veteran, but he's not.

[diehardtwinsfan]

People are down on Parmelee for one reason, the batting average. If his average was .270 and he had a few less walks, people would be saying to give him some time. I don't get it (especially given that his minor league career indicates he can hit for average). He put up video game stats in AAA last year after an excellent season in AA a year prior. The biggest thing he's lacked this year is consistent PT. He got 3 weeks at the beginning of the year and basically was benched for Arcia. Arcia went back down and he got a few more weeks of consistent play only to get benched for him again.

 

His minor league career should give no one any reason to think he cannot be at a minimum an .800 OPS hitter in the majors, and quite possibly much more, and unlike a lot of hitters, he takes a patient approach to his at bats which tends to bare long term fruit. I get that that his floor is only average for a 1B, but that alone makes it easier to keep Sano at 3rd and leaves one less hole to fill the next half of the decade.

 

This kid should get a chance, and to date he really hasn't had one.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm done quibbling after this. The bottom line is that I don't share this board's excitement about punting major league at bats for long shot causes. Unlike 2B or 3B, there are at least 3 or 4 better options available in RF or 1B/DH on the 40 man. I'd be arguing the same about Plouffe if he was taking time from a Korey Koskie or established and productive veteran, but he's not.

 

Parmelee has a career MiLB OPS of .820. That's not exactly a "long-shot" to succeed in MLB. That's "middle of the road prospect" territory. The kind of guy you give a legitimate shot before kicking to the curb.

 

For more examples of this type of player and the danger of letting him waste away in the minors or leave the org entirely, see: Jones, Garrett.

 

Also, Chris is only 25 years old. I don't know why I keep thinking he's 26.

[jokin]

I'm done quibbling after this. The bottom line is that I don't share this board's excitement about punting major league at bats for long shot causes. Unlike 2B or 3B, there are at least 3 or 4 better options available in RF or 1B/DH on the 40 man. I'd be arguing the same about Plouffe if he was taking time from a Korey Koskie or established and productive veteran, but he's not.

 

This time on a serous note, I just re-scanned the 40 man roster. I don't see the multiple options at 1B- Chris Colabello, I guess, who is a far bigger question mark than Parmelee. And if Morneau is indeed likely gone after this season, the Twins will have to have a stop-gap everyday 1B option until someone is ready to come up, it sure seems unlikely that they will go out and sign a FA at 1st. It would be nice to know if, at minimum, that Parmelee can fill that stop-gap role for the next year or so. I'm mostly meh on Parm long-term, but he is only 25, and verdicts handed out at that age often prove to be premature- right now he looks to be somewhere inbetween Jason Kubel (.797 OPS/113 OPS+) ) and Jason Tyner (.637 OPS/71 OPS+), Chris is currently leaning much more towards Kubel (.746 OPS/105 OPS+). I think it's worth a full season's worth of PAs to find out if he can at least be the stop-gap first baseman.