The Case for Griffin Jax as Twins' 2024 MVP

[Matt Braun]

“A reliever??” shrieked the public. Children cried. Adults took up arms and sharpened their blades. Items potentially useful as blunt objects were handed out to any and all who could hold them.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Yes, making the case for any reliever as a team’s MVP is difficult. Even the great Mariano Rivera was overshadowed by players like Derek Jeter or Álex Rodríguez. And for good reason: a bullpen arm only affects a modest number of innings in any given year, typically maxing at around 70 or 75. It’s hard to be of equal value to a position player or a starter, who can affect anywhere from 700 to over 1,000 plays a year, when your job includes affecting only 350. But theirs are typically the most important innings in a season—the end-of-game situations that require near-perfection—and I believe that Griffin Jax performed well enough to stake a claim as the team’s most indispensable player.

Let’s first talk about Jax’s season in the context of Twins relievers. He killed it. Since the Twins became a franchise, only four individual relief seasons accrued more than Jax’s 2.6 fWAR: 1970 Tom Hall (who started 11 games), 2004 and 2006 Joe Nathan (no shock there), and 2003 LaTroy Hawkins. That’s it. Ron Perranoski, Glen Perkins, Mike Marshall, Jeff Reardon, and Rick Aguilera were some of the finest bullpen arms ever to don a Twins uniform; none of them reached Jax’s level in 2024. “Not being the closer” be damned, Jax pitched at a level almost unmatched by non-Nathanian mortals.

Alright, well, how about the context of the Twins as a whole? Four hitters bested that fWAR total, and three pitchers—Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober—finished above 2.6 as well. You don’t need Bert Blyleven’s California math to tell you that that makes Jax the eighth-most valuable Twin in 2024, hardly a contender for the best player.

True as that may be, I think fWAR undersells him, just as it undersells most of the best relievers in baseball. The calculation does include a leverage component, but—in my opinion—it’s just not enough; these innings matter, dammit! Allowing even one run during the frames Jax often pitched in could mean death. 

So, we could take a small stroll over to the Win Probability Added section, and wouldn’t you know it: there’s Jax leading the team with a mark of 2.20. Carlos Correa was the only other Twin above 2.0. No one else, in a real, tangible, measurable way, affected Minnesota's chances of winning the games in which they appeared in a more positive way than Jax did. That sure sounds like an MVP to me.

Now, much of his case is built off the lack of an argument from the rest of the team. As in 2023, no one stood out. The Twins aren’t a “stars-and-scrubs” squad, in terms of production, though they are so in terms of payroll distribution. At their best, they enjoy the work of many above-average players, which (usually) works out well. That’s great for finishing above .500, but as it pertains to discerning which players stood out among the crowd? It’s tough sledding. You could argue for Correa or Byron Buxton—and I might buy those arguments—but both men missed significant time, leading to neither player reaching 400 at-bats. They say that the best ability is availability, and, I don’t know, not being able to play for such large portions of time doesn’t scream “valuable” to me.

After all that, does a Griffin Jax Twins MVP case sound so crazy? No player was more valuable from a WPA standpoint. Jax never hit the IL, forcing the team to push an undercooked backup into a bigger role, and he dominated in a way the franchise hadn’t seen from a bullpen arm in almost 20 years. It may not be the traditional pick, but Jax absolutely deserves the nod.

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Throughout this week, Twins Daily writers will be making the cases for their favorite candidates for Twins MVP, ahead of our release of the Twins Daily end-of-season awards next week. Do you buy Jax's case for the honor? Who would be your choice, if not? Weigh in.

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[Mike Sixel]

I agree, but NO CHNANCE i try to make him a starter. Why ruin a good thing (I know why he wants it)?

[ashbury]

I'd be fine with leaving the award vacant for 2024.  The biggest positive contributors in terms of whichever metric you like (and the ones I like are contradictory this year) pale in comparison to the best on most other teams.  No one on the Twins had the combination of high performance and season-long availability to stand out.

Even in the woeful 2016 season, Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana managed to stand out among their respective peers on the team.  If that team had been made up of several others at their level, 100 losses would not have occurred.  If you replace either of these guys with anyone you choose from the 2024 squad, you wouldn't have any improvement.  Very weird, considering that the 2024 squad finished above .500 by a hair.

[DJL44]

WAR overrates relief pitchers. Pitching 1 inning is much easier to do than pitching 5-6 as a starter. You never have to face a batter twice and you can lean on your best pitch the entire time.

Carlos Correa is the team MVP. They cratered when he was gone.

[gregens]

51 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I'd be fine with leaving the award vacant for 2024.  The biggest positive contributors in terms of whichever metric you like (and the ones I like are contradictory this year) pale in comparison to the best on most other teams.  No one on the Twins had the combination of high performance and season-long availability to stand out.

Even in the woeful 2016 season, Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana managed to stand out among their respective peers on the team.  If the team had been made up of several others at their level, 100 losses would not have occurred.  If you replace either of these guys with anyone you choose from the 2024 squad, you wouldn't have any improvement.  Very weird, considering that the 2024 squad finished above .500 by a hair.

Leaving the MVP vacant is quite unorthodox, but your logic is sound.  Perhaps, the 2024 White Sox are the Twins MVP because their ineptitude contributed to the Twins being above .500.

 

 

 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

WAR overrates relief pitchers. Pitching 1 inning is much easier to do than pitching 5-6 as a starter. You never have to face a batter twice and you can lean on your best pitch the entire time.

Carlos Correa is the team MVP. They cratered when he was gone.

They went from 10 games over .500 to 17 games over .500 without Correa….. Santana on both D & O is tough to argue - the guy Posts as well!! Buxton was effective for 3 plus months after a couple lulls. Correa was definitely their most polished hitter and his D was consistently good, when he played.

Jax, maybe not the MVP but he played the best……. appearance after appearance. Great mindset - great stuff!! Aggressive and competitive on the mound in every situation. Fun to watch………reminds me that at one point this year I referred to him as a guy with “wiffle ball stuff”. He’s electric!

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

They went from 10 games over .500 to 17 games over .500 without Correa

Correa went on the injured list after the game on July 12, the team was 53-41 (+12)

Correa came back on 9/14, the team was 78-69 (+9). They were 3 games below .500 (25-28) without Carlos Correa for 2 months. Correa had a .960 OPS in September when he returned but the team was a total mess and even he couldn't carry them across the finish line.

[thelanges5]

Jax played the whole season and was a consistent performer. He gets my vote. 

[TwinsDr2021]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Correa went on the injured list after the game on July 12, the team was 53-41 (+12)

Correa came back on 9/14, the team was 78-69 (+9). They were 3 games below .500 (25-28) without Carlos Correa for 2 months. Correa had a .960 OPS in September when he returned but the team was a total mess and even he couldn't carry them across the finish line.

gotta say I love it when people dislike a post full of facts (assuming all your data was indeed  facts) Great Post!!

[Vanimal46]

Correa gets my vote for team MVP. Highest WAR on the team for both B-Ref and FanGraphs. We had no answer for replacing him when he was injured. 

[mikelink45]

This year there is no MVP. 

In a year when all the blame gets put on the assistant coaches, it's hard to think of any player that raised the bar. 

I believe the description for this year is total system failure from ownership on down.