The Case for Griffin Jax as Twins' 2024 MVP

Yes, making the case for any reliever as a team’s MVP is difficult. Even the great Mariano Rivera was overshadowed by players like Derek Jeter or Álex Rodríguez. And for good reason: a bullpen arm only affects a modest number of innings in any given year, typically maxing at around 70 or 75. It’s hard to be of equal value to a position player or a starter, who can affect anywhere from 700 to over 1,000 plays a year, when your job includes affecting only 350. But theirs are typically the most important innings in a season—the end-of-game situations that require near-perfection—and I believe that Griffin Jax performed well enough to stake a claim as the team’s most indispensable player.

Let’s first talk about Jax’s season in the context of Twins relievers. He killed it. Since the Twins became a franchise, only four individual relief seasons accrued more than Jax’s 2.6 fWAR: 1970 Tom Hall (who started 11 games), 2004 and 2006 Joe Nathan (no shock there), and 2003 LaTroy Hawkins. That’s it. Ron Perranoski, Glen Perkins, Mike Marshall, Jeff Reardon, and Rick Aguilera were some of the finest bullpen arms ever to don a Twins uniform; none of them reached Jax’s level in 2024. “Not being the closer” be damned, Jax pitched at a level almost unmatched by non-Nathanian mortals.

Alright, well, how about the context of the Twins as a whole? Four hitters bested that fWAR total, and three pitchers—Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober—finished above 2.6 as well. You don’t need Bert Blyleven’s California math to tell you that that makes Jax the eighth-most valuable Twin in 2024, hardly a contender for the best player.

True as that may be, I think fWAR undersells him, just as it undersells most of the best relievers in baseball. The calculation does include a leverage component, but—in my opinion—it’s just not enough; these innings matter, dammit! Allowing even one run during the frames Jax often pitched in could mean death. 

So, we could take a small stroll over to the Win Probability Added section, and wouldn’t you know it: there’s Jax leading the team with a mark of 2.20. Carlos Correa was the only other Twin above 2.0. No one else, in a real, tangible, measurable way, affected Minnesota's chances of winning the games in which they appeared in a more positive way than Jax did. That sure sounds like an MVP to me.

Now, much of his case is built off the lack of an argument from the rest of the team. As in 2023, no one stood out. The Twins aren’t a “stars-and-scrubs” squad, in terms of production, though they are so in terms of payroll distribution. At their best, they enjoy the work of many above-average players, which (usually) works out well. That’s great for finishing above .500, but as it pertains to discerning which players stood out among the crowd? It’s tough sledding. You could argue for Correa or Byron Buxton—and I might buy those arguments—but both men missed significant time, leading to neither player reaching 400 at-bats. They say that the best ability is availability, and, I don’t know, not being able to play for such large portions of time doesn’t scream “valuable” to me.

After all that, does a Griffin Jax Twins MVP case sound so crazy? No player was more valuable from a WPA standpoint. Jax never hit the IL, forcing the team to push an undercooked backup into a bigger role, and he dominated in a way the franchise hadn’t seen from a bullpen arm in almost 20 years. It may not be the traditional pick, but Jax absolutely deserves the nod.

Throughout this week, Twins Daily writers will be making the cases for their favorite candidates for Twins MVP, ahead of our release of the Twins Daily end-of-season awards next week. Do you buy Jax's case for the honor? Who would be your choice, if not? Weigh in.