Twins not looking to trade Correia

[twinsnorth49]

Fangraphs, you could look it up.

 

or this: Traditional pitching stat is meaningless - MLB News | FOX Sports on MSN

 

Google is your friend, too.

 

Hardly conclusive.

 

[twinsnorth49]

Apparently a few non grads

[howieramone1406390264]

I could provide 100 more links, but I believe twinsnorth stated it succintly. I doubt anything would sway your opinion away from your current stand and actually considering the facts taught at UCS. It's accredited and everything.

 

Just enough to prove your point would be fine.

[jokin]

Just enough to prove your point would be fine.

 

The point is certainly ubiquitously out there for consideration and currently accepted by most modern baseball statistical theorists, should you care to actually discuss the pros and cons of it, instead of employing useless hit and run, passive-aggressive, non sequiturs.

[howieramone1406390264]

The point is certainly ubiquitously out there for consideration and currently accepted by most modern baseball statistical theorists, should you care to actually discuss the pros and cons of it, instead of employing useless hit and run, passive-aggressive, non sequiturs.

So you can't prove it?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Just enough to prove your point would be fine.

 

No, he's right. W/L stats for a pitcher are something they do not have nearly as much control over as you'd like.

 

A guy can go out and throw 9 innings of 1 run ball and get the loss because his team got shut out. 5 days later, he can give up 5 runs in 6 innings and get a win because his team put up 13. It's really a lousy metric to determine a pitcher's success.

[jokin]

No, he's right. W/L stats for a pitcher are something they do not have nearly as much control over as you'd like.

 

A guy can go out and throw 9 innings of 1 run ball and get the loss because his team got shut out. 5 days later, he can give up 5 runs in 6 innings and get a win because his team put up 13. It's really a lousy metric to determine a pitcher's success.

 

The poster in question knows it, he just doesn't care to add anything edifying to the topic.

[drjim]

So you can't prove it?

 

Seriously? It generally takes a large effort to make jokin look like the sane one.

[TheLeviathan]

Seriously? It generally takes a large effort to make jokin look like the sane one.

 

Jeez, I thought I had very nicely handled that already.

[TheLeviathan]

Which is a sound principle but people need to temper expectations and open up to the fact that other GMs may offer so little that Correia may end up being more valuable to the Twins by staying.

 

I acknowledge a chance of that. But given how likely I think it is that Correia is not a very good pitcher (as in...bad and we want to replace him desperately ala Blackburn) going forward, I'm convinced even a low A-ball player would be more valuable.

[JB_Iowa]

I just keep thinking about the threads last year on trading Willingham.

 

We don't know what was offered but I hope I don't have the same "missed opportunity" feeling next year about not trading Correia that I have this year about Willingham.

 

I just hope some GM has such a great immediate need that he might be willing to overpay for Correia.

[The Wise One]

Who said anything about "great prospect"? "Preposterous"? Really? Methinks you violated the hyperbole scale on this attempt, wiseone.

 

Scan the DHs in the AL, re: Danny Valencia is DHing for the Orioles. Willingham would have been a nice addition to many teams, provided the Twins didn't set the price too high. Surely you are aware that, even in this down year for Hammer, his wOBA would rank 5th among all DHs and he would rank 6th in OPS.

 

Facts are your friend.

 

Fact: Valencia 935 OPS Willingham 753.

Valencia does not have enough AB to qualify to be on a leader board. Nor is he in the lineup 1/2 the time. To use Valencia as a reason to trade for Willingham is ignoring facts.

Ignore that Willingham is in the bottom half in wOBA for LF, about 75th in baseball overall of qualified plate appearance. Bring all players with 50 plate appearances (Valancia's total and there are 126 better players than Willingham. All facts as you would like to call them.

 

Yes I went from decent to great on describing the prospect. You are trading away someone you expect to be a productive starter (5th best wOBA if he were a DH, even if he is in a down year) for the next year and a half. Wouldn't you expect to get someone who could develop into a productive player for a year and a half. To get anything less than that as a prospect would mean that you are salary dumping

[diehardtwinsfan]

I acknowledge a chance of that. But given how likely I think it is that Correia is not a very good pitcher (as in...bad and we want to replace him desperately ala Blackburn) going forward, I'm convinced even a low A-ball player would be more valuable.

 

I think most of us would agree with this.

[The Wise One]

That doesn't mean you still shouldn't pull the trigger if it serves to help the team for the long term. Willingham and Correia are both "found" talent, holding back developing and developed talent, and most importantly, "relevant talent" bound to be around for the next turn.

Drjim and Leviathan must have not seen this comment

[Riverbrian]

I'd be surprised if Correia is traded.

 

I think Correia will be asked about but... IMO... Ryan isn't going to trade the most consistent starter on the team for a Hudson Boyd type prospect and other teams are not going to give up a Trevor May type prospect for him.

 

I think we best get used to him.

 

This is just my opinion.

[TheLeviathan]

Drjim and Leviathan must have not seen this comment

 

Why do you assume that?

[jorgenswest]

A team looking for a DH would be a good target. I looked at Willingham compared to team DH production. His wOBA is in the upper middle of the AL. That helps. However, much of his value comes from walks and his poor base running decreases the value of the walks a little. There are 4 teams getting DH production significantly less than Willingham. Fortunately, they are all contenders in the Rays, Yankees, Orioles and Tigers.

 

Yankees- Travis Hafner is putting up Willingham like numbers. They would be a good platoon. Willingham could play left. However, the Yankees have Jeter returning who may need to DH some. They don't want to take on 2014 salary to stay under luxury tax. They really don't need another DH type. I would expect them to seek someone with an expiring contract.

 

Tigers- Victor Martinez is DH. They probably will stick him and focus on the pen.

 

Orioles- No real DH. They have rotated guys which may be their preference. They could be a target.

 

Rays- Mostly Luke Scott. However, they just added Will Myers to the OF mix and have some more flexibility filling DH. Does it sound like a defense focused Rays type of deal?

 

It doesn't look like a lot of demand from teams with a need at DH. The Orioles appear a good fit, but they can do a similar assessment of the demand.

[John Bonnes]

Hardly conclusive.

 

Just a reminder to the community - if you have a point to make, then make it. But continually throwing one-liners out that questions everything but add nothing to the discussion is close to the definition of "trolling." And we ban trolls.

[Oxtung]

Which is a sound principle but people need to temper expectations and open up to the fact that other GMs may offer so little that Correia may end up being more valuable to the Twins by staying.

 

Several people have made this claim yet failed to express what is valuable about Correia? I can't think of a single thing he brings to the Twins that can't easily be replaced this off season. I can however think of something that would be gained by trading him and that is a prospect. How good a prospect it will be and what that prospect will become I don't know but something is better than nothing as far as I can see.

 

Perhaps there is something I'm not thinking of. Would you (or anyone) care to explain your statement?

[Kwak]

Trade Corriera for a low A ball pitcher? Wow, just trade to trade? A surviving ML SP for some ? who will have to buy a ticket to be in a ML stadium?? That makes zero sense. Somebody has to pitch and [sadly] right now KC is the best of the bunch. True, he is a place-holder--but he is paid to be just that. Frankly, all of the "shiny toys" brought-up from Rochester are failures and we have every reason to think the next batch will "get their bruises too." They can wait until September for said bruises if all that KC can fetch is "a low A-ball pitcher". The Twins just drafted 7 more of them, plus all of those in 2012--they are "full" of those pitcher-types. What the Twins lack is major league pitchers--and KC is one of them.

[SwainZag]

If the Twins can get a B prospect for him there's is no reason they should not trade him. Yes, it's true he has been the most consistent starter for the Twins this year, yes it's also true he will be 33 next month and is pitching better than anyone thought he would when they signed him in the off season.

 

Take a page out of Billy Beane's book. Sign veteran in off season, deal at deadline for prospect, repeat.

[cmathewson]

If they can get a B prospect at a position of need (such as middle infield), they should certainly entertain the offer. I doubt they would get such an offer, but GMs desperate for an edge down the stretch sometimes do this. Bill Smith did something similar in 2010.

[jorgenswest]

Several people have made this claim yet failed to express what is valuable about Correia? I can't think of a single thing he brings to the Twins that can't easily be replaced this off season. I can however think of something that would be gained by trading him and that is a prospect. How good a prospect it will be and what that prospect will become I don't know but something is better than nothing as far as I can see.

 

Perhaps there is something I'm not thinking of. Would you (or anyone) care to explain your statement?

 

Correia's top skill is health. There have been studies that suggest that the best indicator of future injuries is previous injuries in pitchers. With all of the injury trouble that the Twins have endured in the previous two seasons, signing a guy that has a better chance to be available to take the ball every fifth day has some value. It is not easy to find guys with a track record of a healthy arm.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Several people have made this claim yet failed to express what is valuable about Correia? I can't think of a single thing he brings to the Twins that can't easily be replaced this off season. I can however think of something that would be gained by trading him and that is a prospect. How good a prospect it will be and what that prospect will become I don't know but something is better than nothing as far as I can see.

 

Perhaps there is something I'm not thinking of. Would you (or anyone) care to explain your statement?

 

Sure, another Correia-type pitcher would be readily available this offseason. I'm all for trading him if you can get anything in return. My sticking point is that I don't see many GMs offering anything for him. There's no point in trading a guy just to make it look like you're doing something.

 

Quietly offer him to a few contenders and see if anyone bites but don't be too surprised if the market is entirely apathetic toward Correia.

[Oxtung]

Correia's top skill is health. There have been studies that suggest that the best indicator of future injuries is previous injuries in pitchers. With all of the injury trouble that the Twins have endured in the previous two seasons, signing a guy that has a better chance to be available to take the ball every fifth day has some value. It is not easy to find guys with a track record of a healthy arm.

 

I guess that is a reason but given the abundance of back end starters the Twins have/will have I don't see that being a great reason. IMO I still think trading him is the way to go. Assuming of course the Twins can find a partner.

 

Potential Homegrown replacements

 

Vance Worley

Kyle Gibson

Trevor May

Alex Meyer

Liam Hendriks

Pedro Hernandez

Andrew Albers

Cole De Vries

Logan Darnell

[Oxtung]

Sure, another Correia-type pitcher would be readily available this offseason. I'm all for trading him if you can get anything in return. My sticking point is that I don't see many GMs offering anything for him. There's no point in trading a guy just to make it look like you're doing something.

 

Quietly offer him to a few contenders and see if anyone bites but don't be too surprised if the market is entirely apathetic toward Correia.

 

Ahhh, I misunderstood your previous post then. Thanks for clarifying.

[jorgenswest]

I guess that is a reason but given the abundance of back end starters the Twins have/will have I don't see that being a great reason. IMO I still think trading him is the way to go. Assuming of course the Twins can find a partner.

 

Potential Homegrown replacements

 

Vance Worley

Kyle Gibson

Trevor May

Alex Meyer

Liam Hendriks

Pedro Hernandez

Andrew Albers

Cole De Vries

Logan Darnell

 

I would trade him also. His reliable health as a 4-5 starter has some value in the trade market.