Twins not looking to trade Correia

[ashbury]

Discussion about which metric to use for Corriea completely misses the obvious--he is the poster-boy for Ryan's offseason plan to acquire "value-veterans" for the rotation. "Prospects" (the mother's milk of TD posters), Ryan just drafted a bunch of them. There is no need to trade a succeeding SP who would never be prized by the rest of MLB to part with a "top prospect" to acquire.

 

What about a package to obtain a high-ceiling prospect - KC plus a middling prospect (good floor, lower ceiling), or KC plus one of Morneau/Doumit/Willingham?

[DaveW]

What about a package to obtain a high-ceiling prospect - KC plus a middling prospect (good floor, lower ceiling), or KC plus one of Morneau/Doumit/Willingham?

 

Well, yeah, in a perfect world that would work. I don't think Ryan would turn that down, nor would anyone here argue against that. Some of us are basically saying "Don't trade Correia just for the sake of trading him"

 

Also, KC+Willingham/Morneau/etc isn't going to net that great of a prospect. Willingham even during and after his monster year last year was reported to not be able to bring much more back then a C+ prospect.

[snepp]

I would trade Pelfrey just for the sake of trading him though.

[DaveW]

I would trade Pelfrey just for the sake of trading him though.

 

Agreed 100% the problem is you prob have to eat some of his salary now as well.

[johnnydakota]

Agreed 100% the problem is you prob have to eat some of his salary now as well.

 

Baltimores already talking Pelfrey

[snepp]

Agreed 100% the problem is you prob have to eat some of his salary now as well.

 

 

I don't see a problem, they're already going to be pocketing a massive profit this season. Eat his entire salary if that's what it takes to get something in return. If you don't it'll just go into the Pohlad's coffers, never to be seen again.

[ashbury]

I would trade Pelfrey just for the sake of trading him though.

 

And then I would sign him as a free-agent in the off-season, just for the pleasure of trading him away again in '14.

[Thrylos]

Also healthy Pavano was a damn nice asset for this team

 

Indeed. He led the Twins to 3 World Championships as their Ace. Or not.

[PseudoSABR]

Indeed. He led the Twins to 3 World Championships as their Ace. Or not.

And Santana led the Twins to ten world championships! What a glib response.

[Oxtung]

What is so special about KC that the Twins would lose if they traded him? Veteran leadership? Pitching prowess? Both of those things will be available this off season, just like they are every off season. Why would you not trade him? Get whatever you can for him because he is easily replaceable.

[jokin]

What is so special about KC that the Twins would lose if they traded him? Veteran leadership? Pitching prowess? Both of those things will be available this off season, just like they are every off season. Why would you not trade him? Get whatever you can for him because he is easily replaceable.

 

While I fully endorse the posturing going on right now by the FO regarding Correia's supposed non-trade status, Parker and Oxtung have nailed it completely.

 

You have a 32 year old pitcher, with a checkered career past (a career ERA of 4.50 with rapidly declining K-rates!), with unsustainably 2013 career-best BB and Strand rates, with FIP and tERA that suggest he should eventually be giving up 1-1.35 more runs/9 innings---

 

who is, right now, at his absolute top value.

 

And regarding the Carl Pavano comp- unlike Correia, Carl actually did pick the ball up every 5th day no matter who the Twins were playing and he gave you 200-222 innings, something Correia has never done.

[Kwak]

The Twins need major league talent. Following the Twins' PR, they have "replenished their system and are one of 'the best' in MLB. Except for that one televised Kernels game, I haven't seen any of them play (much less frequently enough) to assess their potential. But the FO proudly exclaims their "prospects"--so I'll run with that for now. More "prospects"? I need to have a firm definition of the term "prospect". To me, this is some who is projected to be an above average MLB player, and stick around for several years. Sadly, the way that word is tossed around on this board, it is anybody who just might get a cup of coffee. To me, there are no "B" or "C" prospects--those guys are just fillers so the affliates can put 9 on the field.

If Corriea (and other disposable asset) could be bundled to acquire a quality ML player--sure! But to obtain an "A" ballplayer--nah. The Twins have plenty of those.

 

Since Ryan is the GM, I fully expect him to stick to his philosophy of "lots of arms". Presently, KC is the best performer of that bunch at the ML level--and the rest are looking rather spotty. The plan doesn't include high-priced pitching, so trading a "value-priced" guy for a ?-mark doesn't make sense, especially in light of the FO boasts of the "rebuilt system". If KC (and whatever) does fetch some real quality, Ryan might make the deal. But, if said quality came with an 8-figure price tag--well that just isn't The Twins way.

[Otto von Ballpark]

As much as Correia's value might be at an "all-time high", it's still not that high -- teams know about his history as much as we do. He signed a modest two-year deal this past offseason -- I doubt anyone is going to give the Twins much of anything for him now. Could the Twins unload his salary? Perhaps, but I doubt they want to do that.

 

It's not unlike the Willingham situation last year -- a lot of fans wanted him traded while he was hitting well, but he was a few months removed from signing a modest 3/21 deal with the Twins. Again, he could have been traded, but he wasn't going to bring anything back. And the Twins generally don't trade for salary relief (mainly because they don't often pay much salary to begin with!).

[Brandon]

What is so special about KC that the Twins would lose if they traded him? Veteran leadership? Pitching prowess? Both of those things will be available this off season, just like they are every off season. Why would you not trade him? Get whatever you can for him because he is easily replaceable.

 

KC is averaging the most innings per start on the team. We need some more starters to go 7 innings to limit bullpen use. We are 2nd in the American League in the number of innings the bullpen throws. KC though is not averaging quite 7 innings a start though. he does provide value to a team in the hunt for the playoffs so I am all for trading him if we can get a solid prospect for him. I am not for trading player to get c- prospects. Why do that when we can keep players and have a .500 team. He has also been pretty consistent. How many of his starts are between 5-8 innings giving up 2-4 runs? He hasn't had many blow outs this year.

 

I am glad to say that KC has actually out pitched his contract this year. I feel the need to eat crow on that as I was very vocal against his signing. I am still uncomfortable counting on him to be more than a 4th/ 5th starter though.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The Twins need major league talent. Following the Twins' PR, they have "replenished their system and are one of 'the best' in MLB. Except for that one televised Kernels game, I haven't seen any of them play (much less frequently enough) to assess their potential. But the FO proudly exclaims their "prospects"--so I'll run with that for now. More "prospects"? I need to have a firm definition of the term "prospect". To me, this is some who is projected to be an above average MLB player, and stick around for several years. Sadly, the way that word is tossed around on this board, it is anybody who just might get a cup of coffee. To me, there are no "B" or "C" prospects--those guys are just fillers so the affliates can put 9 on the field.

If Corriea (and other disposable asset) could be bundled to acquire a quality ML player--sure! But to obtain an "A" ballplayer--nah. The Twins have plenty of those.

 

 

I can tell you your definition of a prospect differs from most. John Sickles over at minorleagueball.com gives out a grand total of about 30 A/A- grades over the course of the season. Buxton and Meyer were both B+ prospects (though both should be in the A category this season when he regrades). You won't get that quality of a prospect for KC. You might get lucky and get a B/B- graded prospect for him, which is still a pretty decent prospect. Plenty of quality major league players can be found in the B range, and many C guys are Cs simply because of how far they are from the show. They too can get better as they move up.

 

I get that KC is doing well now, and I'll go farther and state that he's far exceeded my and most everyone else's expectations. That said, he's not going to be here for the next wave and his value is at an all time high. If a team is willing to part ways with something decent for him, you take it.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't expect Ryan to say anything different publicly.

 

But I expect him to be doing the exact opposite privately. The Twins HAVE to reverse this trend of not selling high on players during moments in their career that scream for it.

[jokin]

KC is averaging the most innings per start on the team. We need some more starters to go 7 innings to limit bullpen use. We are 2nd in the American League in the number of innings the bullpen throws. KC though is not averaging quite 7 innings a start though. he does provide value to a team in the hunt for the playoffs so I am all for trading him if we can get a solid prospect for him. I am not for trading player to get c- prospects. Why do that when we can keep players and have a .500 team. He has also been pretty consistent. How many of his starts are between 5-8 innings giving up 2-4 runs? He hasn't had many blow outs this year.

 

I am glad to say that KC has actually out pitched his contract this year. I feel the need to eat crow on that as I was very vocal against his signing. I am still uncomfortable counting on him to be more than a 4th/ 5th starter though.

 

There is no need for feeling you have to eat any crow on this. The main reason so many were angry with the Correia acquisition was that it clearly didn't match with the words of the GM leading up to the signing. The Twins pretended that a 5th starter from another team was now being tabbed as- not just "a pretty darn good pitcher", but as the FA signing season progressed and the FO sat on its collective hands- the new "ace" of the staff.

 

You are justified in your uncomfortable feelings about counting on him, despite his innings per start status, he has only gone into the 7th inning 4 times in May and June over 9 starts, and only once completed 7 innings. Let's face it, his season record is largely a mirage based on a good early season start and pitching a significant number of games against the dregs of the league- In May and June he has only faced 2 teams who are in the top half of baseball's best hitting teams (Boston and Cleveland- and the Indians were without some of their key players)-

 

for the season, 7 of his 14 starts have been against teams in the bottom quartile in hitting-

 

and yet his ERA for May and June is 5.02, compared to 2.23 in April.

[jokin]

I don't expect Ryan to say anything different publicly.

 

But I expect him to be doing the exact opposite privately. The Twins HAVE to reverse this trend of not selling high on players during moments in their career that scream for it.

 

It seems like the camp on TD that keeps nominating TR for Executive of the Year might acknowledge this glaring blind spot in his resume.

[cmb0252]

Sell high and buy low.

[TheLeviathan]

It seems like the camp on TD that keeps nominating TR for Executive of the Year might acknowledge this glaring blind spot in his resume.

 

I'm not sure Ryan was ever really in that position. He bungled Santana for the organization (badly) but most of his tenure he had little of value to sell. When he did sell it, he effectively turned it into competent players. Most of these most egregious errors happened under Smith.

[jokin]

Sell high and buy low.

 

Executives of the Year generally are aware of this concept, right?

[jokin]

I'm not sure Ryan was ever really in that position. He bungled Santana for the organization (badly) but most of his tenure he had little of value to sell. When he did sell it, he effectively turned it into competent players. Most of these most egregious errors happened under Smith.

 

Willingham quickly comes to mind.

[TheLeviathan]

Willingham quickly comes to mind.

 

Well, that's true, but that's the only one I can think of.

 

I'm not sure what Willingham's value was on the market last year (none of us do), but I'm about 99% sure his production will never be better while he is with the team. I think that mistake is hurting the Twins double right now: they didn't sell high and now they are obligated to keep playing him when it should be Parmalee getting at-bats.

[jokin]

I'm not sure Ryan was ever really in that position. He bungled Santana for the organization (badly) but most of his tenure he had little of value to sell. When he did sell it, he effectively turned it into competent players. Most of these most egregious errors happened under Smith.

 

The Santana fiasco should put you in the penalty box for all-time, and he was still a senior advisor to the team during the Smith years. I'm sure he took a few phone calls for "advice", at minimum.

[jokin]

Well, that's true, but that's the only one I can think of.

 

I'm not sure what Willingham's value was on the market last year (none of us do), but I'm about 99% sure his production will never be better while he is with the team. I think that mistake is hurting the Twins double right now: they didn't sell high and now they are obligated to keep playing him when it should be Parmalee getting at-bats.

 

Yup. And it's not like everyone is Johnny-Come-Lately on this. His numbers/age/injury history screamed SELL to many of us last offseason.

[diehardtwinsfan]

It seems like the camp on TD that keeps nominating TR for Executive of the Year might acknowledge this glaring blind spot in his resume.

 

Hmm...

 

AJ for Boof, Liriano, Nathan

Buchanan for Bartlett

Revere for Worley, May

Milton for Silva, Punto

JC Romero for Casilla

Boyer and Tyler for Castillo

$25000 for Santana

 

I'm not sure what blindspot you are referencing Jokin. Ryan has proven over and over again that he can sell high and buy low. I won't argue with you that he's missed the boat from time to time, but part of being able to sell high and buy low is saying No to a trade that doesn't maximize value... something I might add that Bill Smith never did. Otherwise, you never get that value. I haven't heard much as to what was being offered last year for Willingham and Morneau, but my guess was not much.

[jokin]

Well, that's true, but that's the only one I can think of.

 

I'm not sure what Willingham's value was on the market last year (none of us do), but I'm about 99% sure his production will never be better while he is with the team. I think that mistake is hurting the Twins double right now: they didn't sell high and now they are obligated to keep playing him when it should be Parmalee getting at-bats.

 

Torii Hunter

[jokin]

Hmm...

 

AJ for Boof, Liriano, Nathan

Buchanan for Bartlett

Revere for Worley, May

Milton for Silva, Punto

JC Romero for Casilla

Boyer and Tyler for Castillo

$25000 for Santana

 

I'm not sure what blindspot you are referencing Jokin. Ryan has proven over and over again that he can sell high and buy low. I won't argue with you that he's missed the boat from time to time, but part of being able to sell high and buy low is saying No to a trade that doesn't maximize value... something I might add that Bill Smith never did. Otherwise, you never get that value. I haven't heard much as to what was being offered last year for Willingham and Morneau, but my guess was not much.

 

Somehow, I don't think we are talking about the same concepts here, diehard.

[Kwak]

I can tell you your definition of a prospect differs from most. John Sickles over at minorleagueball.com gives out a grand total of about 30 A/A- grades over the course of the season. Buxton and Meyer were both B+ prospects (though both should be in the A category this season when he regrades). You won't get that quality of a prospect for KC. You might get lucky and get a B/B- graded prospect for him, which is still a pretty decent prospect. Plenty of quality major league players can be found in the B range, and many C guys are Cs simply because of how far they are from the show. They too can get better as they move up.

 

I get that KC is doing well now, and I'll go farther and state that he's far exceeded my and most everyone else's expectations. That said, he's not going to be here for the next wave and his value is at an all time high. If a team is willing to part ways with something decent for him, you take it.

 

I am aware that the TD is really minor league focused--that's OK. I don't really care to spend energy following minor leaguers--just not my bag. Sure, I'm glad that the Twins quite likely have two future all-stars--and I eagerly await to watch them when they play for the Twins. I'm actually amused that posters bicker about "prospects" rankings, especially below the top 10 because I sincerely doubt that they have 10 future all-stars in the system. Also, don't quote me names of players already on the Twins--because they are no longer prospects--they're here and it's time to justify the committment by the franchise to develop them.

 

"...something decent..." I agree in principle, but probably differ in reality. Something decent means [to me] someone the Twins can use in 2014 and for years to come. It doesn't mean some ?-mark in Class A with the dubious tag of "high upside". The Twins just drafted a bunch of "high upside" types to fill the bottom levels of the organization with "hopefuls", there no need to waste a useful MLB SP for a ?-mark. If KC can be traded (say bundled with some other guys) to get some real MLB talent--sure!--I'm all for it! Color me skeptical that that would actually happen, especially if said talent costs $10MM or more.

[silverslugger]

As much as Correia's value might be at an "all-time high", it's still not that high -- teams know about his history as much as we do. He signed a modest two-year deal this past offseason -- I doubt anyone is going to give the Twins much of anything for him now. Could the Twins unload his salary? Perhaps, but I doubt they want to do that.

 

It's not unlike the Willingham situation last year -- a lot of fans wanted him traded while he was hitting well, but he was a few months removed from signing a modest 3/21 deal with the Twins. Again, he could have been traded, but he wasn't going to bring anything back. And the Twins generally don't trade for salary relief (mainly because they don't often pay much salary to begin with!).

 

Couldn't agree more. The same posters who were on here full of vitriol when the Twins signed KC in the off-season due to his well-known track record now expect that the same GM who signed him can somehow pull off a miracle trade for a great return. And for anyone who honestly thinks he's been that great, well, refer to post #47. But let's not let facts get in the way of this great deal we're going to get.