The Twins Bullpen Pitched Eight Innings Wednesday Night. How Will They Survive Thursday?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Rocco Baldelli had to pull his starter after just three outs Wednesday night and ask his bullpen to do heroic work to save the team's season. The only problem is, there are four more must-win games coming, and no rest.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Simeon Woods Richardson's regular season likely ended with a thud Wednesday night, as he couldn't record an out in the second inning before his manager had to take the ball. With their margin for error gone, the Twins needed to find a way to win, and their rookie starter wasn't going to be able to give it to them. Now, though, the club's relief corps will have to bounce back and deliver again Thursday night--and for the three games after that.

Every night, we publish the bullpen usage report at the bottom of our game recaps. Only rarely do we use it in other contexts, though, and this is a great time to break it out, because we need to look ahead to Thursday night's action. Wednesday night will inform a lot of Baldelli's choices.

	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	TOT
Tonkin	0	37	0	25	0	62
Varland	0	0	0	0	48	48
Sands	0	20	0	0	16	36
Blewett	0	7	0	20	0	27
Alcalá	0	0	0	0	20	20
Thielbar	0	17	0	3	0	20
Jax	0	0	0	0	20	20
Durán	0	0	0	0	14	14
Topa	0	0	0	0	8	8

We color-code these cells with the idea that a manager rarely wants to come back to a pitcher the day after he throws 20-plus pitches, but in some situations, I would expect Griffin Jax to be available tonight. He certainly wouldn't throw 20 pitches again, and there would be no having him sit down and then bringing him back, for even a portion of a second inning of work, but the days off prior to Wednesday night could permit Jax to come back with the game in the balance.

The thing is, there is no day off after this series, before the Orioles come in for the weekend. Therefore, Jax might still be down tonight, since it's likely the Twins will need to win at least two of their three contests with Baltimore, too. Woods Richardson might join the bullpen for a moonlighting role Saturday or Sunday, but he won't be a primary option, so most of the guys who will try to get the team across the finish line are listed above. As such, Jax has to be kept fresh enough to keep pitching for three more days beyond tonight.

Jhoan Durán is probably somewhat more available, but Louie Varland, Jorge Alcalá, Cole Sands, and Justin Topa are almost certainly down, for various reasons. That means that Baldelli will have to try to get an extra out or two from David Festa, if the game is close, then hand things off to a middle relief corps of Scott Blewett, Caleb Thielbar, and Michael Tonkin. That's not the sturdy bridge you want from your rookie starter to a pair of relief aces you'd prefer to hold in reserve. It's more like one of those rickety plank-and-rope numbers from a movie.

As it happens, Baseball Savant released new ways to visualize pitching data today, including arm angle measurements that show how a pitcher's shoulder and the ball relate to each other in space at release. One interesting takeaway from the rollout is that Festa is one of the more extreme overhand righthanders in the majors, with pitch shapes that reflect that characteristic.

Thielber, the lefty, could help Baldelli capture a matchup advantage once Festa departs, but so could Tonkin--who is, by sharp contrast with Festa, one of the lowest-angle righties in the game, with movement patterns that are influence by his own slot.

Giving opponents different looks within a game, even from pitchers of the same handedness, is one way to carve out small but crucial advantages. Every team in the league loves doing it, when possible, and the Twins will have a clear path to doing it Thursday. Interestingly, Baldelli has paired up Festa's and Tonkin's appearances with some regularity. In four games in which Festa started, Tonkin has worked 4 2/3 innings, with three hits, two walks, no runs, and a whopping nine strikeouts. He might be the secret weapon for this contest, and that might even include trying to use him instead of turning to Jax or Durán.

That's where the Twins are now. Having obliterated their own margins, they have to pull out all the stops, but keep thinking about how they'll survive a weekend set they have to win just as much as they have to win tonight. It's the kind of unhappy squeeze a team puts on itself with the six-week downward spiral the team has described. Baldelli has to hope his offense can sustain the momentum they found late Wednesday night and give him some wiggle room--or that Festa can turn in a truly salvific gem to take the rubber game with minimal assistance required.

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[bean5302]

Every game is all hands on deck right now. We've seen Baldelli is managing the team with urgency for the past few games as the Twins are 2 (kinda 1) games back with 3 games to play. Baldelli is also likely fighting for his job... and the jobs of his bosses. I'd even venture to say panic mode has been activated.

[Linus]

I was surprised he used Durán last night. The game was in hand. 

[IndianaTwin]

3 minutes ago, Linus said:

I was surprised he used Durán last night. The game was in hand. 

His options were: a) let Jax finish the inning and not be available tonight; b) use Tonkin or Blewitt, who had each thrown 20+ pitches the night before; c) use Topa, who had just come up; or d) use Duran, Keep in mind that he was also going to need one of those options for the ninth. If he chooses b or c in the eighth, there's a greater likelihood of giving up a run or two and needing Duran for an actual save situation. By using Duran in the eighth, he only needed to get two outs instead of three, plus they had the opportunity to extend the lead in the bottom of the eighth, making the ninth even lower-leverage for Topa than it was.

The ideal would have been for SWR to go significantly longer. That didn't happen. Beyond that, it seems like he navigated things pretty well. I think Varland is the only one that's truly not available for tonight.   

[tampatwins]

It’s been all hands on deck for about a week, but at least he’s figuring it out now…we def need some help so go twins and go nationals! 

[BillyBallLives]

Blewett won't blow it, but Tonkin can. 

If all else fails, bring in Thielbar. 

 

 

 

 

[CRF]

Just throw Farmer or Castro in there to pitch. Everybody loves that 50 mph junk! 

[Craig Arko]

They’ll survive because they have to.

[jkcarew]

Do everything you can to lock a win down today (yesterday)…and hope you get lucky tomorrow (today). That’s all you can do at this point. Maybe the offense explodes today.

[HelmetTip]

Big thumbs up for the use of the word "salvific". You taught this writer & old Journalism major a cool new word!

[BH67]

Royals and Tigers complete series sweeps. Twins' elimination number now 2 against both. Have to get past one of them.

[Peter]

Need a lot of help this weekend with white Sox and braves sweeping KC/Detroit. Twins have to win out!!!

[Linus]

5 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

His options were: a) let Jax finish the inning and not be available tonight; b) use Tonkin or Blewitt, who had each thrown 20+ pitches the night before; c) use Topa, who had just come up; or d) use Duran, Keep in mind that he was also going to need one of those options for the ninth. If he chooses b or c in the eighth, there's a greater likelihood of giving up a run or two and needing Duran for an actual save situation. By using Duran in the eighth, he only needed to get two outs instead of three, plus they had the opportunity to extend the lead in the bottom of the eighth, making the ninth even lower-leverage for Topa than it was.

The ideal would have been for SWR to go significantly longer. That didn't happen. Beyond that, it seems like he navigated things pretty well. I think Varland is the only one that's truly not available for tonight.   

Well at least one of the less desirables is going to have to pitch. I would have preferred they do it with an 8-3 lead than tonight when the game could be on the line. 

[rv78]

Everyone should be available to pitch tonight except for Varland. Sure, Jax and Duran only if needed and also limited on pitches if they are used at all. That will take some nifty managing by the "not so nifty Manager" since there is a 3 batter minimum unless the inning ends before that. Thielbar probably should have been used in the 8th yesterday and not Duran with a 5 run lead. Kudos to the Manager for not saving a fully rested Duran for tonights game. ......... Oh, no problem, Tom Kelly is going to let Jack Morris go 9 innings for the win.

[thelanges5]

Offense went 2-19 with RISP and the bullpen pitched well. 

[Doctor Wu]

If worse comes to worse (ooh, I shouldn't even say that!) we can always use SWR in the bullpen another time or two. He certainly wasn't taxed in his last start.