The Cost of Standing Still: How Padres Exemplify What Twins Should Have Done at Trade Deadline

[BH67]

Just now, NYCTK said:

This has always seemed like a lame excuse to me. Oh? There are other things to do in your metropolitan area? How unique. 

Padres aren't exciting their fans purely because they're starved for sports. 

They wouldn't watch awful, no, but they'll go all in on above average or better. See the Chargers in the Air Coryell years as an example. Historically, sport will galvanize a community in a way no other activity does.

You and I have different understandings of what constitutes a lame excuse or risk aversion. I appreciate your thinking that supports your perspective, even though I disagree with it.

[NYCTK]

7 minutes ago, BH67 said:

They wouldn't watch awful, no, but they'll go all in on above average or better. See the Chargers in the Air Coryell years as an example. Historically, sport will galvanize a community in a way no other activity does.

You and I have different understandings of what constitutes a lame excuse or risk aversion. I appreciate your thinking that supports your perspective, even though I disagree with it.

I just don't agree. Maybe to some small degree. But not in a way that would be hugely financially significant.

After the allure of the new park wore off, the Padres sat mostly around 10-12th in the NL in attendance, dropping below 2 Million, in the worst stretch. 

Come 2021 and they signaled that they were in it to win it, attendance has been consistently top 4. 

[Linus]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

While it's true he wanted to see them win before he passes, the change didn't happen because he got sick. He jacked up expenditures long before that. 

He was one of the billionaires that understood being rich has no value if you're not investing it in your community. He was well known to invest in San Diego, particularly homeless initiatives. 

Meanwhile our owner started earning his wealth by making people homeless. Go figure. 

I'm sure Carl is looking up at his family and smiling at their financial prudence. 

Look I’m as frustrated as anybody about what has happened to this team lately and never was a fan of Carl but the bit about Carl making his money off foreclosures has been debunked many times. Being critical of the Pohlads is warranted in my opinion. Spreading falsehoods about a dead guy is not. 

[Larry Janisewski]

5 hours ago, silverslugger said:

I'm completely flummoxed as a fan. 

Evidence A:  I HATE the way ownership has handled the last twelve months.  The TV deal fiasco has been both a PR and logistics nightmare, and how much can ownership or the front office really do about it?  Whatever they have or haven't done, well, see above.

Evidence B: I love what Falvine have done to build the farm system and find diamonds in the rough pitching-wise for the organization.  I HATE what they've done at the trade deadline and in bringing in players with extremely questionable medicals.  Are they a great front office?  Or merely average?  Are their hands tied by ownership?  Or is most of this by their own doing?

Evidence C:  Rocco is seen as a player-friendly manager who manages games so that players stay fresh.  We're never fresh in September/October when it counts.  Our defense is usually putrid and our offense goes into extreme funks for extended periods of time.  Players certainly don't seem to be held accountable.

And, so here we are, good but not great and always falling apart in the end.

Silver Slugger hits on a key point. While the bullpen has been bad the last 2 months the offense has been equally as bad. Many nights totaling 5 hits or fewer, walked off 2 straight nights by the Indians, and the other night they had a huge 8 hits but 6 of them came from the 2nd and 3rd batters in the order.

[terrydactyls]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

I gotta push back because they didn't give up any prospect nearly as touted as Emmanuel Rodriguez. As you pointed out, that particular prospects value was dropping rapidly. He may still show value but could definitely be a bust.  

About what are you pushing back?  I didn't offer any opinion about the trades.  I just made a comparison.  After reading your recent posts, maybe you're just in a foul mood?

[Linus]

19 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

You don't think a man that got wealthy in banking foreclosed people's homes? You think he made that money being a good person to the people in his communities? 

I really, really don't care if the specific tale of him walking around during the great depression and foreclosing farms is true or not. 

Carl (and his nepo babies) was the embodiment of the No Good Billionaire philosophy. At least Bill had the decency to run off and make art. 

Decency. Hmmmm…..

[NYCTK]

15 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

About what are you pushing back?  I didn't offer any opinion about the trades.  I just made a comparison.  After reading your recent posts, maybe you're just in a foul mood?

Just the comps across systems. Snelling is a good prospect, but as you noted his value fell quite a lot from when he was ranked so highly before the season. 

He's actually probably pretty similar, a year or two behind, Woods Richardson. Which is a pretty valuable thing. But would not be like trading Emmanuel Rodriguez. 

Sorry, I'm just discussing cause I love this stuff. 

[Guest]

Coulda, woulda, shoulda is a waste of time.  Let's talk the Minneapolis city government into buying the team.  I'm sure they could run it equably....

[Blyleven2011]

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

See this a lot.  What's the source of this recurring opinion about what's inside someone else's noggin?  Just an echo chamber here, after someone once said it must be so?

Meanwhile we have thread after thread full of people who are certain they are smarter, and tell us so, repeatedly.

So who actually deserves to be labeled this way?  Some folks might ask themselves, Reddit-style, AITA?

No disrespect  , If you've seen it quite often then it could be true ...

You have to be the judge of his character  , you've gone to alot of games at target field , haven't you bumped into him yet and have a small chat , when twins are winning you'll see him  , when the twins are losing , he is no where to be found  ...

 

[old nurse]

I suppose the front office could have not signed Santana and Margot and non tendered Farmer so they had money for deadline deals. Of course if the Padres don’t make a deep run in the playoffs is moving half of your top prospects worth it 

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

No disrespect  , If you've seen it quite often then it could be true ...

You have to be the judge of his character  , you've gone to alot of games at target field , haven't you bumped into him yet and have a small chat , when twins are winning you'll see him  , when the twins are losing , he is no where to be found  ...

 

So not being around when the Twins are losing means he thinks he is the smartest person in the room. Wow. That is one big leap 

[Linus]

With the expanded playoff format the supply / demand dynamic at the trade deadline got steep for acquiring players ( although some relievers were available for reasonable prices). I think the biggest missed opportunity was last off season. The moves made to address clear weaknesses were failures. 

[DocBauer]

Pay attention if you will, I'm breaking this down in to different categories:

DEVILS ADVOCATE:

The Padres have EXPLODED their payroll for several years now to build their club, and have had a very deep system that they have constantly traded from. Good for them, they've maintained and developed enough talent to be able to do so thus far. While we DON'T have open books in regard to income, it's been strongly suggested they have exceeded output vs input to achieve this financially. This is largely attributed to an ill/dieing owner who wanted desperately to win a WS before passing. At some point, possibly soon, the Padres may be looking at a financial crisis as an organization and may deeply regret the vast amount of talent they have traded away. The entire collapse and conundrum of Bally/Diamond plays a major part in this. And the future is unknown.

Twins ownership, while taking more than a couple missteps in how they've handled TV and streaming rights, alienating a large majority of their fandom, have at least recognized impending changes, and attempted...to some degree...to get "out front" of impending changes by NOT trading away a bulk of MILB talent, or take on salaries that could cripple the team's future. Surprisingly, while these two teams play in different leagues and different divisions...which is a fair point...since the current Twins FO took over late in 2016, the more frugal Twins have been in the playoffs 4 times through 2023 vs the Padres heading there only twice.

BUILDING A BULLPEN:

Like all teams, the Twins invest in OPPORTUNITIES for the pen in the offseason with low cost and low risk investments to see what might turn up. This has turned up 1 year options, and multi year contributors such as Wisler, Clippard, Coulombe, Thielbar, and Stewart, just to name a few. The one major miss/mistake in that time was Jeff Hoffman, now with the Phillies, who was let go after having a quality ST and has gone on to be an important piece with the Phillies. HUGE miss on that one.

The Twins spent LITTLE in the offseason to fortify ANY part of the team, least of all the bullpen. What they did do was bring in a collection of arms to fill middle relief with the idea SOMEONE might step forward. To be fair, they already had Duran, Jax, Stewart, and Thielbar to form a base. While Stewart has had a career filled with injuries, his 2023 injury was a muscle strain. Did anyone really predict 15 poor IP? Despite getting long in the tooth, did anyone really expect Thielbar to just fall off a cliff after a really solid 2023? Funderburk really flashed potential last season before fighting control at times this year...though he's still got potential. Topa was never, IMO, a verified set up man. But after a really good 2023 with the Mariners, he coulda/shoulda been a solid 7th inning guy. And then an old knee inury pops up again. Sands has been a HUGE surprise! Duarte looked like a nice flier who was "tweaked" by the coaching staff to be a potentially solid addition. And then, of course, he blows his elbow out. I think a lot of people also forget Jovani Moran also blew his elbow out. Brent Headrick, tall LH arm with potential to help missed most of the season as well with injury. Is it POSSIBLE that Winder and his new 2 seamer and existing slider MIGHT have pulled a "Sands" and taken a step forward this season if he wasn't hurt AGAIN? If Ryan and Paddack hadn't BOTH got hurt, might the pen have been less stretched and better today as well? 

If Rocco...and I don't criticize him often, even if I don't always agree with him...had handled Alcala as a 1 IP to begin with, especially considering past injury issues and limited IP the past 2 seasons...his generaly outstanding season might still have him effective, and a reliable arm, instead of a tired one going through a bad stretch and back at AAA.

CONCLUSION: The pen wasn't set up poorly despite no major additions initially. Injuries and the poor handling of Alcala, and WAY underestimated regression of Thielbar...Funderburk to a lesser degree...wiped out what was expected, including loss of depth. Having to suddenly compensate for injuries to the rotation can't be stressed enough. Even with all the injuries and depth issues and under performance, the pen was still league average or so until about early/mid August

I'm NOT absolving the FO for some moves made and not made to begin the year. Crap happens, including injuries. But ON PAPER to begin the season with a pen of Duran, Jax, Stewart, Alcala, Topa Funderburk,  and whoever, I bet most all of us would have bet we had a good pen with some options and depth available. 

I don't think the FO was stupid, or blind, but were believing in what was on hand, and thought a couple arms added would help. Best laid plans, right?

TRADE DEADLINE REALITY:

I don't think the FO was SCARED to make a move or two. That's ridiculous. These are grown men who have revamped the entire system to bring about one of the top MILB systems in MLB. They've had the Twins in the playoffs in 4 of the 7 seasons they've been in charge, and probably 5 of 8 soon. 

SHOULD they have made an addition or two at the deadline besides the very pedestrian Richard's? ABSOLUTELY! Did they have enough MILB talent to afford a trade for someone like Puk with another year under contract? Yes! He should have been a priority. The cost would not have decimated the system in any way.

And there were a handful of arms I was also interested in. But honestly, I might be envious of the arms the Padres brought in, but I'm NOT envious of what they gave up. When our favorite team has been spiraling lately...making it hard to watch at times...I'm still reminded we HAVE talent and ability. I'm reminded that the offense just fell asleep all at once. I'm reminded the Twins are now throwing 3 rookies in the rotation. I'm reminded that in a short series with Lopez and Ober we have a chance, including a shortened pen that might be better than the pen we have right now, stretched out. But the offense needs to get it together.

FINAL CONCLUSION:

The Twins have been hard to watch the past few weeks. The pen has been part of that. But so has the offense.  But itts also been hard, while interesting, to see a couple top SP prospects get their feet  wet for the future. Ownership SHOULD have allowed an addition at the deadline. Considering the prospect capital cost of some of the trades, I can see a reluctance of the FO, not ownership. I think the FO should have jumped on Puk, a perfect fit, even if hurt a little bit.

I'm NOT an optimist to remind everyone that the Twins were one of the best teams in MLB from about mid April to mid/late August. We even had a real shot to overtake Cleveland for the ALC crown. The Cleveland series was close and went the opposite way. And it STUNK to be so close! 

But barring an even greater collapse, our Twins are headed to the playoffs. I understand all of the recent frustration for a team that should be producing better than they have been. But right NOW, would you trade the likes of Rodriguez, Keaschall, Lewis, Morris, etc and all for a couple rentals?

[Jocko87]

13 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

While I am by no means a pocket protector for the Pohlads, and have been incredibly vocal on these boards since November about how terribly they've handled everything since the playoffs, and think they could absolutely spend more if they wanted to, you're missing a really important piece of the Padres decisions...Peter Siedler was dying. He went crazy on spending because he wanted to bring his team a championship before he passed. Unfortunately that didn't happen. And they've cut back on spending since. Sielder said "eff this" because he knew he was running out of time. That's a significantly different situation to be saying "eff this" in.

I can't think of a single team less comparable to the Twins than the Padres.  The premise of this article is a collection of words that will get me banned.  I hate what we've let this site become.  So much of what they are doing is scrambling to get the organization back to steady after the "eff this" period.  With a couple major stars signed long term they couldn't just tear it down. 

13 hours ago, NYCTK said:

While it's true he wanted to see them win before he passes, the change didn't happen because he got sick. He jacked up expenditures long before that. 

He was one of the billionaires that understood being rich has no value if you're not investing it in your community. He was well known to invest in San Diego, particularly homeless initiatives. 

Meanwhile our owner started earning his wealth by making people homeless. Go figure. 

I'm sure Carl is looking up at his family and smiling at their financial prudence. 

While I see you've been corrected and acknowledged those corrections (thanks for that) I have to point a couple things out.  The fanatic mindset makes it really easy to get carried away with hyperbole and not apply a minimum level of critical thinking.  It's the curse of the social media era.

Here, we somehow didn't think a billionaire knew he was sick before we did?  The most basic, simple explanation is that anyone, billionaire or not, knows they are dying long before they announce it publicly.  It's just one of those things that once it becomes public explains so many things in hindsight.  But nope, lets go with the least sensible path because it fits our priors. 

And being comfortable with accusing Carl of something like that which was debunked with a simple search....

Let's just say if it were me I'd back off a bit and rethink my positions but that's just me.  I wish it were many more than just me.

[Maybe Next Year]

13 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Kansas City is actually a small market unlike the Twins. But you know what they did this offseason and trade deadline? Spent money to improve their team. And we should expect them to again. 

I don't think anyone's saying spending money is a pathway to guaranteed success. But announcing that you're cutting payroll after a decent season sure is a message that ownership doesn't want to invest to win. 

Every dollar they spend is purely calculated for ROI. 

Again, KC’s payroll is $10 million less than the Twins. I would also argue that the Twins are indeed a small market team just as the Royals are. 

[Fatbat]

We clearly had too much pitching…. Until we didn’t. How do they always bet so badly on pitchers?

[USAFChief]

9 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

 So much of what they are doing is scrambling to get the organization back to steady after the "eff this" period.  

The "eff this" period?

Assuming you're talking about the previous regime, how long should the current one "scramble?"

Falvey was hired October 2016.

[Jocko87]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

The "eff this" period?

Assuming you're talking about the previous regime, how long should the current one "scramble?"

Falvey was hired October 2016.

Was referring to the Padres "eff this" period as described in the quoted post.

But, doesn't it just come down to people wanting the Twins to Leeeeeroy Jenkins? 

That's all I can see in most of these posts.

 

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Was referring to the Padres "eff this" period as described in the quoted post.

 

 

My bad, I misread. 

[FargoFanMan]

22 hours ago, Maybe Next Year said:

 I’m not sure if all you Pohlad haters realize this but KC’s payroll is $10m less than the Twins and Detroits is $20 million less than the Twins. The Braves, Cubs, Giants, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels, White Sox, Mariners and others are all higher than the Twins payroll and none of them look like they will make the playoffs.
My point is this- spending money doesn’t guarantee you anything. An efficient and capable front office and a manager who has some baseball sense instead of relying on his computer spewed analytics is just as if not more important. 

Spending money in free agency equal to 60, 80, 100 million over 5, 6, 7 years is way different than being able to take on 5-10 million to add a rental to help your team in season. Or even trading away prospects like Gabby Gonzalez or Emmanuel Rodriguez. Does anyone remember the late 2000’s Twins? Not willing to trade “top” prospects to push those teams to contenders. Those prospects such as Kyle Gibson, Ben Revere, Oswaldo Arcia, Joe Benson, Alex Wimmers, Aaron Hicks. Decent players but didn’t turn into stars by any stretch of the imagination. My point is that prospects are not a proven commodity and need to be treated as such. Other than Jenkins and maybe Lee I’d be willing to part with anyone. You should be if your window is open. 

[NYCTK]

11 hours ago, Maybe Next Year said:

Again, KC’s payroll is $10 million less than the Twins. I would also argue that the Twins are indeed a small market team just as the Royals are. 

Well, the Pohlads thank you for carrying their water then. The Twins are a mid market team with a small market mindset. I'll say it again, there's no reason they couldn't be the Padres or the Cardinals or comparable to any other mid market team. 

So many people here are so defensive of the Pohlads loser mentality. They're running the Twins as a business, no different than one of their banks that, yes, foreclosed on small town community members in order to make a profit. Is this unique in MLB? No, of course it isn't. Which might be part of the reason the sport has died so much over the last 40 years. But that doesn't mean I have to be happy about it. 

I really don't care if me stating the fact that Carl Pohald kicked people out of homes for profit makes you uncomfortable. 

And I'll stand by push back against this idea that the late Padres owner only increased payroll significantly because he was faced with his own mortality. He was part of the ownership group that doubled payroll from 2013-2015. And while he may have been diagnosed in 2018 we have no evidence he only further pushed up spending in 2020 due to his health issues that came to head in 2023. 

He wanted a winner more than profit. And baseball would be better off with more Seidlers than Pohlads. 

[LyleCole]

I think the situation is a bit more complicated than this.

1.   What do we really know about the players that were truly available at the deadline and the demands those teams were asking for them?  We are making assumptions about the market and the Twins entry into that market.  I think we were in a position that we had a lot of minor league players on the "untouchable" list (Jenkins, Keaschall, Lee) and probably overvalued other players like Festa and Varland to make any deals.

2.   I think the Pohlads have been a notoriously cheap organization.  We made the playoffs in the Mauer-Mourneau era, but that was usually because we won the least competitive division in MLB.   But, I think another $10-15 million invested in those teams, relatively small dollars especially once we moved into Target Stadium, would have made the team true contenders.

3.  Minnesota is a cheapskate sports state to begin with.   Our owners have always hidden behind the "small market" claims, but in reality the entire state is essentially anti-sport.  Our local advertising revenues are amongst the lowest in professional sports.   One way I always demosntrate this is that Minnesota is by far the largest state that has only one D1 football program and one D1 basketball program.  Iowa, a state with HALF the population has two D1 football teams and a DQ FCS football team,  and three D1 basketball programs.   Alabama, a state of comparable size has six D1 FBS football programs, 4 D1 FCS football programs, and ten D1 basketball programs.  

We still have not failed to make the playoffs, but it is rare that a late season addition really changes things around.  And sometimes, even successful deadline trades look bad in the long run.   In 1987, the Tigers made a deadline trade for a starting pitcher named Doyle Alexander.  Alexander went 9-0 down the stretch with a 1.53 ERA helping the Tigers win their division by 2 games.  But he went 0-2 against the Twins with a 10.00 ERA, and in the next two years with the Tigers he was a 88 ERA+ pitcher.  The pitcher the Tigers gave up was a 20 year old 1985 22nd draft pick that had a 5.73 ERA in 1987.  John Smoltz.

More than the trade deadline, I think we just did not get enough pitching depth to start the season because of the payroll limitations.  It also hurt that Duran was out and wasn't 100% effective.  Girffin Jax and COle Sands were good.  Alaca was decent.  They lack a leftie in the bullpen and they cannot assume that some of these 32+ year old arms are going to be effective.  Make a point to get a solid arm in the pen next season, then if Brock Stewart or some other player bounces back they will have great depth.  But the Twins will most likely instead RELY on Brock Stewart to bounce back.

 

 

[spanman2]

On 9/21/2024 at 8:59 AM, NYCTK said:

The San Diego Padres are a great example of what the Twins could be if they had an owner that wasn't awful. The padres used to be owned by old losers too, but the Krocs sold the team. The team passed through some different hands before arriving where they are now. 

Ten years ago, the two franchises weren't too dissimilar. Beautiful ballpark in downtown area, comparable market size (although Twin Cities are larger), similar franchise value, similar payroll. 

And then, something happened. Peter Siedler bought out the rest of the owners and said, 'eff this, why is a billionaire running a sports franchise like a McDonald's and not like a team trying to be exciting and win a championship?' 

And since then, the Padres entire culture has changed. Sure, they lost $60 million in 2023...but the franchise grew $200 million in value. So why would a billionaire care? 

Padres are out there spending, and trying, and the fans are rewarding them. They're going to the park. They're going from passive fans to loyal fans. The investment is paying off. 

The Mets are trying the same thing, but obviously the market isn't at all comparable. But I can tell you Mets fandom in the city is no longer a punchline. It's a common occurrence. The Mets are exciting. 

And the Twins could be too. 

Hey Zygi...wanna purchase a baseball team...