Pablo López Alone Gives the Twins a Chance in Any Playoff Series

[Matthew Taylor]

The Twins may be limping toward October, but ace Pablo López offers hope. Like a hot goalie in the NHL, a dominant pitcher can carry a team deep into the postseason. López's recent dominance proves he's capable of leading the Twins in any playoff series—and he might just be their ticket to success.

Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

It’s no secret that the Minnesota Twins have been stumbling over the past couple of months. Despite flashes of brilliance, inconsistency has left them clinging to the final playoff spot. Frustration is mounting, and it’s easy for fans to feel resigned to another short-lived postseason or, even worse, a season that ends before October.

But before we give in to pessimism, I think it’s time we look at why this team still has hope in the playoffs. One name, in particular, stands out: Pablo López.

In baseball, one starting pitcher can change the course of an entire postseason. We’ve seen it before with the likes of Madison Bumgarner, who willed the Giants to a World Series in 2014, or Josh Beckett’s masterful performances in 2003 that carried his team to the title. López has the potential to be that guy for the Twins in 2024. His arm alone might just carry the Twins through a playoff series—and maybe further.

Let’s rewind to last postseason, when López proved he can more than handle the spotlight. In two critical playoff starts, he allowed just one run over 12 2/3 innings, striking out 10 while helping the Twins secure both victories. His standout performance came against the Houston Astros, where he pitched seven innings of shutout baseball on the road. It was no fluke, either—López was dominant from start to finish, and absolutely blew through the reigning champions.

Unlike past playoff runs, wherein the Twins have often been up against the most intimidating arms in the American League, this year’s field doesn’t feature especially daunting matchups. Gerrit Cole is no longer the untouchable force he once was. Justin Verlander isn’t the same pitcher who dominated the postseason in years past. Frankly, there’s a real argument that López is the best starter in the American League right now--or at least that, if the Twins can hold off Tarik Skubal's Tigers, he'll be the best on a playoff team.

Over his last 12 starts, López has been lights out, posting a 2.11 ERA with 71 strikeouts and just 15 walks. Only Framber Valdez of the Astros has been in the same conversation during that span, and we know how the Twins handled Valdez last October.

The beauty of the MLB playoff structure is that a dominant starting pitcher can change a series. In a best-of-three format, one stellar performance can put your team on the brink of advancing. In a best-of-five, that same pitcher could take the mound twice, potentially securing two of the three wins needed to move on. And in a best-of-seven? If you’ve got a guy like López, he could feasibly pitch three times in the series, delivering you to the brink of a championship almost single-handedly.

These are the kinds of performances we’ve seen from legends like Bumgarner in 2014. No matter who else is on the mound for the opposing team, if you’ve got a pitcher that’s this locked in, you always have a chance. Pablo López has shown us he’s more than capable of being that guy for the Twins, offering them a clear path to success in October. His lieutenant in the rotation, Bailey Ober, only reinforces that feeling, and augments the potential value of López continuing to be brilliant.

López has the makeup and the talent to step onto that mound and say, “I’ve got this,” unlike anyone they have had on the roster since Johan Santana. Don't forget, in the darkness of this late regular-season moment, the light that was his speech about accepting and embracing pressure last fall. Yes, it’s been tough watching this team struggle down the stretch, but all it takes is one legendary playoff performance to turn things around. And if there’s anyone on the junior circuit capable of delivering that, it’s Pablo López.

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[Rufus]

Ober is pitching  just as good if not better than Lopez.  With exception of the Braves game he has pitched good enough to have won all his second half starts.   He  seems to be relegated to the place Jim Kaat was on the 60's Twins pitching staffs, always the bridesmaid to the Pascual's, Grant's, Chance's etc.

[NYCTK]

This is great news for whomever the team trades him to for cost cutting purposes. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Seriously though, we really do not have the bullpen to compete.

[LambchoP]

Lopez AND Over have been pitching like team aces this year. What's held us back is Ryan going down and relying on three rookies that are at their limits as far as durability and stamina goes

 SWR should be fine next year but it's obvious he's on fumes. Festa and Zebby have shown flashes of great stuff, but we're probably rushed a bit due to needed big league starters. These last three guys only throwing a couple innings each start has worn down our pen so much that any lead we may have is in constant jeopardy.

[D.C Twins]

Actually, Lopez and Ober together give us the chance..... if we make it..... and that 'if' seems to getting bigger by the day ... 

[mikelink45]

We need to finish the season. Two good pitchers can carry you a long ways in the playoffs, but they only pitch 40% of the games during the regular season. We need more. 

[Craig Arko]

This kind of shows how losing Ryan was maybe the hardest hit taken.

[CRF]

I'd say that Lopez and Ober absolutely give us a chance in any series, or playoff series...if we're fortunate enough to make it to the dance. The biggest problem is, we can't hit on any kind of consistent basis. If you don't put runs on the board, you don't win games. 

 

[bean5302]

Lopez gives the Twins a chance to win a series on his own? If the Twins make the playoffs (I don't think they will), they'll be playing Houston in the Wildcard round and every single starter matchup against them puts the Twins starter as an underdog, including starting Lopez against Valdez. Lets take a look since August 1st.

Starts with 5.0 IP+, ERA under 4.00 (we'll call it QS2)

Lopez - 1.92 ERA*, 2.94 FIP, 3.50 xFIP, 75% QS2
Ober - 4.02 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 3.95 xFIP, 67% QS2
Festa - 4.04 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 3.39 xFIP, 50% QS2
SWR - 4.91 ERA, 4.73 FIP, 5.22 xFIP, 38% QS2

Valdez - 1.33 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 2.68 xFIP, 88% QS2
Brown - 2.25 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 3.37 xFIP, 88% QS2
Kikuchi - 3.19 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 2.79 xFIP, 75% QS2

*Lopez's also had a 4 "unearned" run performance in the mix helping his ERA/QS2 stats.

The Astros starters are way better than what the Twins can counter with. The Astros' defense is also way less likely to allow a bunch of unearned runs to spoil an otherwise great start. On top of that, the Astros' hitters have been much better and much more consistent than Minnesota's lineup.

Lopez has has great results in the 2nd half, but he hasn't been the best starter in MLB or anything. Many playoff teams have an ace which will put Lopez as an underdog starter head to head.

[rv78]

In the playoffs Lopez and Ober are #2 and #3 starters. bean5302 explained it perfectly. The Twins owners aren't committed to playoff baseball. The FO relying on Paddack, Desclafani and a host of AAA pitchers to help this team get into the playoffs will probably be their downfall...... That and the inability to hit when needed by the on again, off again lineup. It's pretty bad when the hitters that are carring your team are super-sub Willie Castro and 1 year journeyman Carlos Santana. 

[old nurse]

So many years with lack of playoff success and the fans haven’t figured out one pitcher alone will not do it. Two pitcher will not do it.. A team needs three capable starters 

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

So many years with lack of playoff success and the fans haven’t figured out one pitcher alone will not do it. Two pitcher will not do it.. A team needs three capable starters 

Team need starters to be...  capable in the playoffs. Who those capable starters will be is much much harder to determine. 

During the 2023 Playoffs:

Clayton Kershaw had a 2.46 ERA during the regular season. He still doesn't know what hit him in Game 1 against the D-Backs. He gave up 6 runs and got one out. 

Burnes and Peralta were pretty capable during the regular season for the Breweres. Not quite as capable in the playoffs. 

The Rangers pounced on Glasnow for 4 runs over 5 innings. Efflin had a 3,50 ERA regular season in 2023. It did him no good against the Rangers in the playoffs.  

Cristian Javier was a 4.56 ERA in 2023 for the Astros. Against the Twins in the playoffs he threw 5 innings of one hit ball while striking out 9. 

Who could ever explain what a Brandon Pfaadt was. 

 

 

[old nurse]

On 9/20/2024 at 9:07 AM, Riverbrian said:

Team need starters to be...  capable in the playoffs. Who those capable starters will be is much much harder to determine. 

During the 2023 Playoffs:

Clayton Kershaw had a 2.46 ERA during the regular season. He still doesn't know what hit him in Game 1 against the D-Backs. He gave up 6 runs and got one out. 

Burnes and Peralta were pretty capable during the regular season for the Breweres. Not quite as capable in the playoffs. 

The Rangers pounced on Glasnow for 4 runs over 5 innings. Efflin had a 3,50 ERA regular season in 2023. It did him no good against the Rangers in the playoffs.  

Cristian Javier was a 4.56 ERA in 2023 for the Astros. Against the Twins in the playoffs he threw 5 innings of one hit ball while striking out 9. 

Who could ever explain what a Brandon Pfaadt was. 

 

 

After Kershaw came off the DL he wasn’t the same pitcher. Javier had a poor season. His prior seasons were more than just a capable pitcher 

[Riverbrian]

59 minutes ago, old nurse said:

After Kershaw came off the DL he wasn’t the same pitcher. Javier had a poor season. His prior seasons were more than just a capable pitcher 

When it comes to predictions. You are a better man than I. 

 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

When it comes to predictions. You are a better man than I. 

 

It is not predictions as much as it is looking at recent past performances and outcomes. Baseball the inference between good and great can be very fine. Start starting pitchers have clunkers. A mediocre pitcher has the only perfect game in baseball history. Batters have 0fers and OPS 1.000 for series. Never know when it is going to happen. You were mostly right with the competent pitcher, but they do have to have the fortitude to rise a little higher.