Derek Falvey is Likely to Stay, But Twins' Code of Silence Leaves Future of Front Office Unclear

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

See, this is the problem: you're doing this all on feel and guesswork. bWAR is a stat, it's just not a stat you like, so your dismiss it. How are you coming up with Miranda preventing 5 losses, and giving us 5 more wins if he had 100 more ABs? You don't have anything to back it up other than "he's a better hitter". He is a better hitter, but is he so much better a hitter and good enough defensively at 1B to be that much of a difference-maker at 1B? Since you don't have any real criteria, you can never be proven right or wrong about anything.

Miranda spent 9 games in AAA this season. If we hadn't signed Santana and started Miranda at 1B this season, how would we have done when Royce went down?

I'm not drinking the kool-aid, I'm being clear-eyed about this front office, and not pretending they suck because of style. They're not perfect: the Mahle trade was a real risk and a total bust. If GG doesn't pan out, the Polanco trade isn't going to look good (even with Polanco being diminished, something the league clearly recognized regarding his market). They haven't done well as buyers at the deadline, either missing opportunities or busting out. But we're seeing a real flow of young players up to the majors with a competitive club and a strong farm system, and the cupboard was looking a little bare when they arrived.

The Twins have $5MM more budget to work with if Santana isn't part of the roster. If they don't bring in Margot and instead work with Austin Martin, oh, that's $9MM.

What do the Twins do when Lewis goes down, then? Castro and Farmer.

The front office performed horribly this offseason. Horribly.

[DJL44]

16 hours ago, rv78 said:

bWAR means nothing to me. I look at stats.

This is a joke, right? Okay. I'll go next.

RBI means nothing to me. I look at stats.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

If there was substance to engage on, I might have.

OK, make your case that all-star game selections are a measuring stick for a front office.  In the era of one mandatory all star from each team.

Make a fact based case that the Falvey has more money than Ryan did.  Don't forget inflation.

Ad hominem usually equals surrender in a debate but the user doesn't realize they have surrendered.  I'll give you another chance.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins have $5MM more budget to work with if Santana isn't part of the roster. If they don't bring in Margot and instead work with Austin Martin, oh, that's $9MM.

What do the Twins do when Lewis goes down, then? Castro and Farmer.

The front office performed horribly this offseason. Horribly.

Wait, they have an all-star and a proven vet to back up Lewis?  Seems pretty solid to me.

This is also an odd statement considering the value you are placing on all-stars in your other nonsense.  At least be consistent.

If you separate the front office from ownership, and you should, you can't possibly make a case that they performed horribly this year. 

[Greglw3]

On 8/28/2024 at 6:00 PM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Personally, I would have those two reversed. But that’s a matter of taste, a Coke, Pepsi thing. 

I listen to interviews, and I love Levine’s candor and detest Falvey’s shallow dismissiveness about everything. (Beat writers sound the same way.) “The Twins are great, everything is incredible, we got this.” Maybe Joe Pohald eats that **** up. Maybe Falvey shows a different side in private. If Levine is the one ultimately calling the shots on things like the Mahle trade or Gallo signing or pulling the trigger on other bigger dollar signings, well then Levine should get the pink slip. Either way, we will all be cheering together like last year i hope when the playoffs roll around. Baseball is too much fun in October. 

I've long wondered what Levine really does because I think Falvey controls, ultimately the trades and signings, even if they may work together sometimes.

Also, aside from the one season that they actually really tried on free agent signings with Cron, Schoop and Cruz, they are averaging about 3 to 3.5 games above .500 per year. 

The player development is the strength (credit Sean Johnson?).

The trade deadlines have been positively abysmal going all the way back to 2019 as they  detailed, season by season on the SKOR North Twins Show with Declan, Phil Mackey and Judd.

Lots of bad trades and signings Happ, Shoemaker, Sam Dyson, Mahle, Archer, Lopez, Dylan Bundy, DeSclafani, Topa, Keuchel, Pagan, Jake Cave, Donaldson, Gary Sanchez, holding on to an ineffective Kepler for so long.

Positives are Correa, SWR and Martin for Berrios may be about even or in the Twins favor. 

I consider Rocco to have gone from an initially badly overmatched manager to an average to slightly below average manager who at times pulls it together in certain games and manages a very strong game. I base this strictly on alll the other managers I’ve seen in my lifetime and how he stacks up.

He’s made several embarrassing mistakes lately, costing them games.

Right now, the ownership is a big part of the problem. When Declan made his responsibility pie chart on the Twins show the other day, he assigned a 55% responsibility to Rocco and ownership combined,, 25% Rocco and 30% ownership.

For me, give me a front office like the Royals this past year or the Padres - aggressive and knowledgeable difference makers.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

I've long wondered what Levine really does because I think Falvey controls, ultimately the trades and signings, even if they may work together sometimes.

Also, aside from the one season that they actually really tried on free agent signings with Cron, Schoop and Cruz, they are averaging about 3 to 3.5 games above .500 per year. 

The player development is the strength (credit Sean Johnson?).

The trade deadlines have been positively abysmal going all the way back to 2019 as they  detailed, season by season on the SKOR North Twins Show with Declan, Phil Mackey and Judd.

Lots of bad trades and signings Happ, Shoemaker, Sam Dyson, Mahle, Archer, Lopez, Dylan Bundy, DeSclafani, Topa, Keuchel, Pagan, Jake Cave, Donaldson, Gary Sanchez, holding on to an ineffective Kepler for so long.

Positives are Correa, SWR and Martin for Berrios may be about even or in the Twins favor. 

I consider Rocco to have gone from an initially badly overmatched manager to an average to slightly below average manager who at times pulls it together in certain games and manages a very strong game. I base this strictly on alll the other managers I’ve seen in my lifetime and how he stacks up.

He’s made several embarrassing mistakes lately, costing them games.

Right now, the ownership is a big part of the problem. When Declan made his responsibility pie chart on the Twins show the other day, he assigned a 55% responsibility to Rocco and ownership combined,, 25% Rocco and 30% ownership.

For me, give me a front office like the Royals this past year or the Padres - aggressive and knowledgeable difference makers.

Where I disagree with you is I think they should have cleared the shortstop position for Lewis. Usually you want prospects to earn the job, but I think Lewis was a different breed and it was ok to just ink him in at short for the next 10-15 years like the Yankees did with Jeter. 

[wabene]

36 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Where I disagree with you is I think they should have cleared the shortstop position for Lewis. Usually you want prospects to earn the job, but I think Lewis was a different breed and it was ok to just ink him in at short for the next 10-15 years like the Yankees did with Jeter. 

Lewis can't even handle 3rd. He is not a major league short stop. Now Lee can be average or better at short and above average at 3rd and 2nd.

[Greglw3]

16 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Where I disagree with you is I think they should have cleared the shortstop position for Lewis. Usually you want prospects to earn the job, but I think Lewis was a different breed and it was ok to just ink him in at short for the next 10-15 years like the Yankees did with Jeter. 

Given Correa’s extensive unavailability, You’re probably right. I think Lee would also be good at short. SO far, we don’t know who either Lewis or Lee will be offensively. I’d love to see Lewis come out of his deep slump.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

8 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I’d love to see Lewis come out of his deep slump.

Wish = granted. 🙂

[SwainZag]

On 8/29/2024 at 4:21 PM, bean5302 said:

It's unbelievably easy to be unimpressed. Since the Twins were arguably the worst team in all of baseball from 2011-2016 results wise so being "better" by that metric is a virtually non-existent bar. In other ways, I'm not sure how you'd quantify an advancement. Both Smith and Ryan were better in drafting and developing valuable players for the Twins.

Buxton, Sano, Polanco, Dozier, Berrios, Rogers all of them All Stars as Twins. Falvey inherited all that talent, plus other valuable roster pieces that had been drafted and developed like Kepler, Garver, and Gibson.

On Falvey's side.... nothing. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Not a single All Star Player ever drafted or signed out of the international market by Falvey. Ever. Unless you're talking about guys he traded away like Rooker. Falvey lived off the cushion he was given.

Then there's payroll which expanded greatly under Falvey's regime. If Terry Ryan had been given an extra $50MM to spend, do you think he might have been able to field a better team in 2016?

How about the farm system rank? To start 2016, the Twins had an absolutely elite farm system. For 2015-2016, ranked in the top 5 or 10. Where do we sit today? Middle of the pack after trudging along in the bottom 10 recently.

Dramatically expanded payroll. Lower ranked farm. Not one single All Star drafted and developed in 8 years. One playoff series win. One season with more than 87 wins. Again, color me unimpressed.

 

So the only way to obtain players is thru the draft?  Saying there is zilch on Falvey's side is just being obtuse. Drafting Chase Petty and trading him straight up for Sonny Gray who was an all-star, finished 2nd in Cy Young voting and was instrumental in the series clinching win against TOR in the playoffs last year is certainly something.  

The entire rotation were acquired by the current regime.  I don't understand this notion that you need to draft and develop players to be successful.  Why is trading for players such as Ryan, Gray, Lopez, SWR not seen in the same light as drafting?  

Also, this is the 8th season they have been here, 2020 was a shortened season where they were on pace to win 102 games.  So in 6 real seasons, one season over 87 wins.  But 3 division titles and a playoff series win.  Current 10th best record in league, 2nd ranked farm system.  I certainly feel better about the current squad and the future of the team than in 2016.  

[USAFChief]

On 8/30/2024 at 10:08 AM, Jocko87 said:

It also illustrates how slim the margins are. The Dodgers have chosen their path and it's a heavy commitment.  The manager is good for a couple wins or losses a year at best.  I'm not really into spending a billion dollars for 8-10 additional wins and having to take huge swings every year.

The long term approach is almost always better but having the patience to execute is rare.  We have it good and should recognize it.

If you like the long term approach, and patience, you must love the Dodgers. 

In the 10 most recent full seasons (not counting 2020) they've won 988 games, an average of 98.8 per season. The fewest wins in a season is 91. Five times over 100, including 111. Won the NLW every year but one (when they made the playoffs.) Two trips to the WS, another 3 to the NLCS.

The long term approach seems to be part of their plan.

I left out 2020, because I don't think it should count in any analysis, but if you want to include it, add a .717 season winning percentage and a WS win.

 

 

 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

On 8/29/2024 at 5:21 PM, bean5302 said:

It's unbelievably easy to be unimpressed. Since the Twins were arguably the worst team in all of baseball from 2011-2016 results wise so being "better" by that metric is a virtually non-existent bar. In other ways, I'm not sure how you'd quantify an advancement. Both Smith and Ryan were better in drafting and developing valuable players for the Twins.

Buxton, Sano, Polanco, Dozier, Berrios, Rogers all of them All Stars as Twins. Falvey inherited all that talent, plus other valuable roster pieces that had been drafted and developed like Kepler, Garver, and Gibson.

On Falvey's side.... nothing. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Not a single All Star Player ever drafted or signed out of the international market by Falvey. Ever. Unless you're talking about guys he traded away like Rooker. Falvey lived off the cushion he was given.

Then there's payroll which expanded greatly under Falvey's regime. If Terry Ryan had been given an extra $50MM to spend, do you think he might have been able to field a better team in 2016?

How about the farm system rank? To start 2016, the Twins had an absolutely elite farm system. For 2015-2016, ranked in the top 5 or 10. Where do we sit today? Middle of the pack after trudging along in the bottom 10 recently.

Dramatically expanded payroll. Lower ranked farm. Not one single All Star drafted and developed in 8 years. One playoff series win. One season with more than 87 wins. Again, color me unimpressed.

The farm system is absolutely in the top 5 and likely top 3 in all of MLB right now. This has been well documented. 

"Drafted All Stars" is a very silly way to measure FO contributions. And every single time Brent Rooker is brought up just shows that someone is desperate to make a point. 

[Jocko87]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

If you like the long term approach, and patience, you must love the Dodgers. 

In the 10 most recent full seasons (not counting 2020) they've won 988 games, an average of 98.8 per season. The fewest wins in a season is 91. Five times over 100, including 111. Won the NLW every year but one (when they made the playoffs.) Two trips to the WS, another 3 to the NLCS.

The long term approach seems to be part of their plan.

I left out 2020, because I don't think it should count in any analysis, but if you want to include it, add a .717 season winning percentage and a WS win.

 

 

 

They have a long term approach but it doesn't feel like patience is a huge part of the plan.  They just write a check when the time comes. When something breaks, they write a check. It's a different approach.

Although they did exercise good patience sitting last year out in free agency so they could drop a cool billion this year.

I'd almost enjoy watching Falvey work with that budget. It has an equal chance of being amazing or a complete disaster.