Why the Minnesota Twins Dodged a Bullet by Not Re-signing Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda

[Joe A. Preusser]

13 hours ago, Beast said:

They used the financial flexibility to bolster other parts of the roster?

I’d disagree that happened.

Joe Ryan is a future ace?

He’s darn near 30, has never put together a full season, gives up a ton of home runs, has one career playoff inning, has a career ERA around 4.00, and had a 3.60 ERA this year before likely being done for the year.

I’d grant no more than decent #2 guy to good #3 guy.

Maeda and his deal shouldn’t limit anyone’s “flexibility” and is inconsequential.  Gray’s contact may be constraining for a couple years (if you couldn’t trade him later), but this team is likely leading the division if he’d been in the rotation all year vs. some of the alternatives.

In order for anything positive to come out of it, they’d have to actually use the resources saved at some point.  They wouldn’t even use a fraction of it to bolster the bullpen in free agency or the deadline.  If they had, they’d also likely be in first place.  

Man, what a terrible take on Ryan.  

I could make all sorts of arguments for him, but I'll just say this:  I would trust him to start a playoff game for us.  

When he went down it hurt bad.  We'll have to piece together our #3,4 starts in the playoffs now.  

Don't tear down a great pitcher to make your speculative arguments.  

[old nurse]

18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Maeda lost velocity again, and we've all seen what happens there so the Twins were right to skip him over, but Sonny Gray has looked dominant most of the year again this year, save for 3 very unlucky starts recently.

Sonny Gray through All Star Break - 3.34 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 2.80 xFIP
Sonny Gray after All Star Break - 5.50 ERA, 5.00 FIP, 2.69 xFIP
Sonny Gray overall - 3.91 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 2.77 xFIP

Gray's curve has lost some of it's bite? His stuff+ rating this year is the best of his entire career, including his curveball rating at 119 vs. career 111 and his slider at 151 vs. career 128. His pitches are more difficult to hit vs. the average competition than they've ever been in his career.

If the Twins make the playoffs with 3 rookies in the rotation (a scenario which you'd struggle to find an analyst, front office or owner saying is desirable), they still don't have a Sonny Gray caliber pitcher in their rotation. This team is at a disadvantage vs. most playoff teams when it comes to the likely starters for the first 2-3 games, though Lopez has finally shown some signs he could be a major asset. The Twins absolutely need him to be the best version of himself to have a fair chance, provided they make the playoffs.

It's not during the regular season that ace starter is such a weapon, it's when you're in must win games and your lineup is facing an ace pitcher from the other team.

FIP is a lovely number. It sometimes gives people hope for a brighter tomorrow. It sometimes says the person is lucky. The thing is neither scenario matters when the player gives up 5 runs in the playoffs when the team needs the best out of him. 

[Doctor Wu]

The decision not to re-sign Gray and Maeda also kept the Twins flexible heading into the 2024 trade deadline. With a younger, more dynamic rotation, the Twins have been able to assess their needs more accurately as the season progresses. Should they find themselves in contention, they have the prospect capital and financial flexibility to make a big move at the deadline without the albatross of aging pitchers on their payroll.

Hmm ... that hopeful scenario obviously didn't happen. I think at this point the Twins front office are still assessing their needs and making lots of wishes for the health of their remaining players. 

 

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, Fatbat said:

I agree that it isn't good to sign aging vets to long term deals. Seems like a no brainer.  The FO obviously knew that the farm is full of guys about to arrive and they have.  Two more waves of young guys behind them. 
 

Ryan will always be a potential ace. But will he ever be an actual one?

I’d trust the 3 rookies in the playoffs.  They need to walk thru that fire to take a step in their development. 

Not directed at you just general observations not just on Ryan but on the Top 3 guys:

ERA……Ryan & Ober are 27th & 28th …….30 Teams with 5 starters each (do need minimum innings) Lopez has a 2.29 ERA over last 11 starts. Lopez is #49 in ERA.

Innings pitched……..Ryan (has missed last 2 starts w/injury) 135 innings - Ober 140 innings - Lopez 148 innings. Top 10 guys are between 155-165 innings.

Strikeouts……Lopez is #15 - Ryan is #21 - Ober is #25.

WHIP………Ryan & Ober are 5th & 6th with a .99 each. Lopez is #21 with a 1.14 mark. To me, WHIP may be the most telling stat over the length of time.

Wins…….(the “meaningless stat”) they are a combined 31-20 with Lopez & Ober (12 each) being tied for 7th place in the game!…….that projects to a 93-60 W-L over 2 plus years ……..effective guys helping the Team garner wins.

Am not really worried about who the Ace may be nor whether we have an Ace. There are 3 guys going forward with big time capabilities. Unfortunately, Ryan actually contributing more this season is probably not realistic. These 3 with the 3 Rookies behind them bring real promise moving toward 2025.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

FIP is a lovely number. It sometimes gives people hope for a brighter tomorrow. It sometimes says the person is lucky. The thing is neither scenario matters when the player gives up 5 runs in the playoffs when the team needs the best out of him. 

He pitched 5 shutout innings against the Blue Jays to get the Twins their first playoff series win since 2003.

[tony&rodney]

Limitless spending would have seen Sonny Gray returned as a Twin. Focusing on a roster budget from $90-170 million for the next five years (2024-2028) meant that Gray was not in any future plans for the Twins. Most people manage their lives in a similar fashion. Gray is fine in St. Louis and Maeda is fine in Detroit, while the Twins are just fine without either now and going forward.

[Rufus]

On 8/24/2024 at 11:38 AM, DJL44 said:

That is defensible. They aren't doing that either.

Most of the Twins young guys aren'y even Arbtatration eligible yet and still have a lot to prove.  Why rush into signing them to long term contracts until they prove they have earned them?  Injuries etc. could derail their careers.  I think this front office has a handle on things

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, Rufus said:

Most of the Twins young guys aren'y even Arbtatration eligible yet and still have a lot to prove.  Why rush into signing them to long term contracts until they prove they have earned them?  Injuries etc. could derail their careers.  I think this front office has a handle on things

Because it's cheaper to do it earlier than later. You risk more guaranteed money by waiting because they get more expensive.

[Rufus]

49 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Because it's cheaper to do it earlier than later. You risk more guaranteed money by waiting because they get more expensive.

[Rufus]

Just now, Rufus said:

51 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Because it's cheaper to do it earlier than later. You risk more guaranteed money by waiting because they get more expensive.

Not rea

 

Just now, Rufus said:

51 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Because it's cheaper to do it earlier than later. You risk more guaranteed money by waiting because they get more expensive.

and end up with a bunch of guys signed to long term contracts that could easily be replaceable by guys coming up through your farm system?    I agree an occasional super star type may be with tying up but why be in a rush?   Why would the Twins offer a long term contract to Ober for instance?  He is 29 now and will be into his 30's before he is a free agent.  Ryan is another one he he has been hurt every year so far, do they really want to sign him?  Lewis?  come on another Buxton for people to complain about, he sure has come to earth lately hasn't he.  If he can have an injury streak and get his numbers back up maybe.  Jeffers is inconsistent, Larnach and Wallner are a journeymen type,  Miranda has a lot to prove,  but maybe. Who would you lock up?  I see no future HOF types on this team,

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Rufus said:

Who would you lock up?  I see no future HOF types on this team,

Jeffers, Duran, Lewis (he's a free agent sooner than you think), Jax.

[old nurse]

12 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He pitched 5 shutout innings against the Blue Jays to get the Twins their first playoff series win since 2003.

Yup, he did pitch in the Toronto series. That does not change what happened with the Houston series.