Simeon Woods Richardson, Twins Playoff Starter, Gears Up for Unexpected Challenge

[Eric Blonigen]

This isn't where anyone expected Simeon Woods Richardson to be, six months ago. All that matters now, though, is what he does over the next two.

Image courtesy of © Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

Simeon Woods Richardson began the season as the Twins’ likely seventh starter, behind Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Anthony DeSclafani, and Louie Varland. Fast-forward past some injuries and ineffectiveness, though, and Woods Richardson is now the Twins' third starter. He likely lines up to start at least one playoff game, as long as the team plays further than Game 2 of a Wild Card Series. How did we get to this point, and what should fans expect from him the rest of the way?

Woods Richardson has had an unconventional start to his career, to be sure. Drafted in the second round in 2018, he was traded twice, promoted very aggressively by multiple teams, and ascended to become a global top-100 prospect. He was an Olympian. Then, he lost velocity and was mediocre with the Saints and Twins in 2022 and 2023, to the point of being largely written off as part of the Twins’ future plans. Still just 23, he highlights the non-linear nature of player development.

During the 2023-2024 offseason, Woods Richardson worked on changed mechanics and a new pitch mix. As a result of this work, he’s now throwing almost three miles an hour faster on his fastball, and has added a tick to his breaking and offspeed pitches. This is likely tied to adjustments he made to his arm slot, lowering it slightly, and also improving his extension. He’s been throwing his fastball less frequently, and has reintroduced his curveball, which he didn’t throw for the Twins last season.

These changes have paid off in a big way. So far this year, he’s made 22 starts. Over that stretch, he has averaged just over five innings per start and has generally exceeded expectations. Over the past month, he has been able to go deeper in starts, as he gains both experience and his manager's trust. Looking at his underlying metrics, what story does that tell around what the Twins should expect from him going forward?

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The Good
Woods Richardson has a 3.77 ERA, with a shiny 1.17 WHIP. His expected numbers tell a similar story, with a 3.91 FIP. His walk rate is a bit better than average (7.4% vs. 7.9% MLB average). His fastball has been a good pitch, despite not having elite velocity, in part due to his increased extension. He has also shown consistency from start to start, and hasn’t had many blowup innings, demonstrating the sort of mental resilience necessary to be a playoff starter (or even a solid mid-rotation guy going forward). And, it’s important to note once again that he's only 23. If he’s able to take even another small step forward, he could end up a solid mid-rotation starter for years to come.

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The Less-Good
To start, take a look at all the blue on his Baseball Savant page.

His BABIP is low, at .265, and his xFIP sits at 4.37, suggesting that a few more batted balls are likely to go for hits moving forward. He has been shielded by conservative usage, rarely facing a lineup for the third time. He also doesn’t strike a ton of guys out (20.6%, vs. 22.6% MLB average). Finally, his changeup has been a bad pitch, and he throws it 20% of the time.

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The Verdict
All of that suggests that Woods Richardson is an average, approaching-good pitcher, rather than a very good or great one. To take his game forward, he will need to either strike guys out at a better clip or improve his changeup. Or, he could find still more velocity. All of these things are possible with the Twins’ pitching development capabilities. Most likely, though, he’s a fourth starter on a team with good pitching, and will likely pitch to something like a 4.00 ERA moving forward, while continuing to be slightly shielded against deep starts and third time through a lineup. That's unsexy, but it's very tolerable in Game 3 of a playoff series--as long as your first two starters took care of business.

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Moving Forward
Now that all that’s out of the way, let’s be real for a minute: The Twins would be better off if Joe Ryan were one of their top three this fall, instead of Woods Richardson. It would have been great if the Twins had traded for a playoff-caliber starter at the deadline, or signed one in the offseason. However, those things didn’t happen, and we can’t change that. Fortunately for fans (and the Twins' playoff odds), Woods Richardson has been solid this season, and the Twins could do worse than having someone of his caliber take the mound every fifth day after losing four other starters. In fact, probably 27 other teams in baseball would be thrilled to be in this position today.

So. Assuming Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and Baseball Prospectus are all correct, and the Twins make the playoffs, Simeon Woods Richardson is likely the Game 3 starter. A year ago, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober were in similar positions, and Ryan’s usage may be instructive. The most likely outcome is that Richardson would get a start, but Rocco Baldelli would have a very quick hook and remove him at the first sign of trouble--or after he's gone twice through the order, whichever comes first. He’s probably not a pitcher who will be lights-out on the mound when it matters most, but he could provide four solid innings with a couple runs allowed against a playoff lineup. There are worse outcomes, to be sure.

To go from a near-afterthought to a playoff-caliber starter in less than a season is a remarkable development, and is another example of the Twins helping young pitchers maximize their talents. With a little luck and health, Simeon Woods Richardson can be a big part of a deep playoff run. Wednesday evening will present a good test for him, against the very much playoff-caliber Padres batting order.

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How do you feel about SWR being a playoff starter? Comment below!

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[Doctor Gast]

SD could be his biggest test so far, the way they are playing & how short-handed we are.

[August J Gloop]

The Padres have maximized their interactions with hanging sliders this series. Sim is going to have to be sure to say away from those.

[Road trip]

Arguably the most pleasant surprise of 2024.  I expected him to be only a "break glass in case of emergency" starter this year.  Well, the glass broke, and he has surpassed all expectations.  Here's hoping he has another good two months this year.

[Craig Arko]

If he gets a playoff start I will be overjoyed. 

[PDX Twin]

2 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

If he gets a playoff start I will be overjoyed. 

I can't see it. With the existing pitching staff, the Twins will be lucky to make the postseason and I don't see any way that they get to three games if they do.

I know everyone will hate this comment, but we are just not very good right now, especially against winning opponents.

[Craig Arko]

11 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

I can't see it. With the existing pitching staff, the Twins will be lucky to make the postseason and I don't see any way that they get to three games if they do.

Exactly. Overjoyed. 

[Karbo]

I am hopeful that at only 23 yrs old there is room and time for much more from him. 1st time as a starter in MLB at only 23 is something that is kind of rare lately with the Twins.

[Doctor Wu]

11 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

I can't see it. With the existing pitching staff, the Twins will be lucky to make the postseason and I don't see any way that they get to three games if they do.

I know everyone will hate this comment, but we are just not very good right now, especially against winning opponents.

I don't think everyone is going to hate your comment. A lot of things to worry about lately and obviously, the Twins are short-handed with the injuries to Ryan, Buxton, and Correa, not to mention the lingering IL stints of Stewart and Topa. But all that aside, we are still competitive. As far as Woods-Richardson, he has performed better than I had hoped to this point. I truly feared a meltdown and maybe a return to AAA, but that hasn't happened. Credit to the coaches who aren't allowing him to go too far in games. It seems like 5 innings is fine, and letting him go 6 innings or a third time through the order may be playing with fire, but so far so good. He hasn't embarrassed himself and has actually been a very dependable part of the rotation all year. But you asked about starting him in a potential playoff game and ... I'm not sure. Part of me thinks that SWR has really matured this season and is up to the task, and part of me worries that a playoff game may be too much pressure for a young player like that to handle. But if Joe Ryan can't come back and pitch by the end of September, it looks like we may not have any other choice. Hey, we won a pennant with Les Straker as the number three starter, so all things are possible!

[LambchoP]

SWR has saved this years rotation from being a total disaster. He seemingly has been getting more and more confident with each outing throwing with authority. He hit 96, maybe 97 on the gun last night. Pitching the way he is now, I've got no problem with him being our number 3 starter. Plus, he's only 23 so hopefully there is still plenty of room to grow and improve some more. While I would have liked some off-season and trade deadline additions, and while I really wish we still had Ryan, it's hard not to be optimistic about the Twins pitching pipeline:) Infused with a couple solid vets in the off-season, we could have one of the better pitching staffs

[jdr]

I really don`t understand how show bleacher pitchers talk about someones ceiling. I truly blows my mind. At 23, there are only a couple of guy`s better at starting a game and their team have a better percentage of winning them him and both of those guy`s are established veteran pitchers 30 or over. Its obvious he has been taught to pitch 95 down with movement until they catch up. Well, until New Hampshire he was throwing mid 90`s. So, to say he did better or he`s a fourth are you a GM or club house manager? And, what`s truly funny he hasn`t even got his man body yet. So, back to the earlier points if you are a pitcher and you keep your team in 85 % of the game you start what is the name for a pitcher like that 1, 2, maybe 3? So, let the young man doing what he`s doing because every guy that throws harder than him that you like is getting the butt handed to them