The State of the Twins Defense, and the Prospects for Improvement

[Hunter McCall]

This is not the defensive alignment the Twins planned on taking into the home stretch of the season. Can it be a good enough facsimile thereof?

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 Minnesota Twins are a solid defensive team, on paper. Unfortunately, the team has dealt with several injuries at critical positions, forcing new faces to step up and fill in, so the paper is getting a bit rumpled and covered with crossed-out corrections. A Royce Lewis injury opened the door for the return of José Miranda. Willi Castro currently acts as the team's primary shortstop, as another bout of plantar fasciitis for Carlos Correa has left him sidelined since before the All-Star break--and shoulder trouble has thwarted Plan B for the position, in the person of Brooks Lee. With all these moving parts, what is the overall state of the team’s defense?

As a team, the Twins rank 6th in MLB in Statcast's Outs Above Average (OAA), which relates to a player’s range as a fielder and how many more outs they contribute compared to the average fielder given the same opportunities. Interestingly, while the team ranks well in OAA, they rank 22nd in MLB in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). They're eighth in MLB in opponents' rate of reaching base on balls in play (RBBIP), which is similar to BABIP but also builds in errors. Essentially, according to the numbers, the team exhibits good range and ability to record outs, but doesn’t save as many runs as they should, compared to other teams. How?

One reason for this struggle may come from the current state of the shortstop position. The value of Correa at shortstop cannot be overstated. The former Platinum Glove winner carries an aura about him that makes everyone around him better. Everything feels smoother when Correa is on the field. His rocket arm allows for faster double plays, and his quick hands and long wingspan when tagging out runners make him a valuable asset in controlling the running game. He’s been down, however, and the Twins have had to turn to Castro as the everyday option. In terms of OAA, Castro has been great. He ranks in the 85th percentile according to StatCast, and has +4 OAA as a shortstop.

DRS doesn’t view him as kindly. Castro currently ranks 4th to last in the entire league, with -11 DRS. While he brings excellent value to the Twins as an All-Star ubiquity man, Castro appears to be overextended as an everyday shortstop. With the recent news that Correa is ramping up activity, hopefully, Castro will soon be allowed to return to his normal utility role. Even once he returns, though, the Twins might want Correa off his feet a bit more often, so Castro needs to shore up his play.

While Castro has shown some ability to make plays at shortstop, the team’s worst defensive liability to this point in the season has been Austin Martin. Although Martin has only played 460 innings, he accounts for -9 DRS and -7 OAA as an outfielder. Like Castro, Martin has often been asked to fill in for an injured Platinum Glove winner (Byron Buxton), and the difference has been dramatic. He has shown flashes and is young and athletic, so he will certainly continue to grow this portion of his game as he progresses, but at the moment, he is really going through it defensively. Assuming the team is fully healthy come October, it’s hard to imagine a world where the Twins feel comfortable playing Martin as anything other than a pinch-runner.

Injury questions (ostensibly) aside, the most intriguing thing to watch is how the Twins divvy duties at third base. While Lewis (+1 OAA) has been a more rangy option than Miranda (-3 OAA), Miranda holds the edge in DRS (Lewis has -1 DRS, while Miranda has +2). It's about a horse apiece, as far as the numbers go. The kicker may come down to how they feel they can best keep Lewis healthy down the stretch. He doesn’t seem to lose anything at the plate as a DH, so the team may continue using him in that role to keep him fresh. One thing is for sure: the Twins want both Lewis and Miranda in their daily lineup, regardless of who plays where.

Another defensive group with a wide margin between the everyday players is at catcher. Christian Vázquez is tied for 18th in MLB in DRS, at +10. Additionally, he ranks in the 91st percentile in pitch framing and has a +2 rating for his catcher’s ERA (cERA). In other words, pitchers tend to allow fewer runs with him behind the plate, be that a matter of game-calling or of helping hurlers manage the difficult moments, emotionally. Ryan Jeffers, on the other hand, has -7 DRS and is in the 12th percentile in pitch framing, with a -2 cERA to boot. Vázquez does almost everything better defensively than Jeffers, and by a wide margin. While Vázquez was left on the bench for the Twins’ postseason run in 2023, if he keeps a hot bat while Jeffers continues to sputter, the team will have some tough decisions to make come October.

When they're even close to full health, the Twins rank among the league’s best defensive teams. They have enough defensive talent to use their fielding as an asset through the playoff push. I’ve mentioned Correa, Buxton, and Vázquez as players who all offer better defensive abilities over their counterparts. I never even touched on Carlos Santana, who is having one of the best defensive seasons in an already impressive career. The state of the Twins' defense might not be in the best place today, but with a bit of luck in the health department at the right time, it should look a lot different come October.

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[bean5302]

Well, the latest updates make it clear Correa isn't close to coming back. I wouldn't count on him until September. Still day to day on how his foot feels, and he's not comfortable running back to back days yet. Correa's not going to even slated for a rehab assignment until he can run day after day with no discomfort the next day. The Twins appear to be taking a very cautious approach here trying to fully cure the plantar fasciitis? In any case, there's pretty much no way we see him until September.

[bean5302]

In regard to the Twins' defense, it sure feels like whenever there's a game on the line, you'll find a Twins fielder making a critical error.

[Whitey333]

Correa?  Who's that?  I don't expect him back until mid September if then.   Between him and Buxton alone there is over 50 million dollar ball players rehabbing their owies.  Sheesh.  

 

 

[LambchoP]

Correa still sounds like he's a ways off. Buxton will be eligible to return on Friday, but does anyone actually believe he will? I'm guessing Monday, or whenever we start our second home stand series. We need Correa to take over for Castro and Buck to man CF. Another boost for both the lineup and defense is Brooks Lee. He's a much better defender than Julien or Martin and I would much rather see Lee hitting in a close game rather than the strikeout king Julien. As is always the case with this team, year after year, IF we can get everyone healthy at the same time we'll be in good shape. Of course it's always a big IF. At some point someone has got to ask the question, why we can never keep our best players on the field.

[thelanges5]

Correa, Buck, and Lewis have only played 17 games together this year. The team has been holding it together and playing well. 36 games left and we have are 3.5 behind the best teams in the AL and 3.5 ahead of BoSox to make the playoffs. 
5.5 weeks left, LFG Twins!!!

[jccracraft]

Lewis is too young and athletic to be DHing a lot. He could be an all star at 3B if he puts in the work.  I think Miranda has improved, but not sure he'll ever be above average.

[Doctor Gast]

Stats don't tell the whole story. 4th string Castro does a valiant job at SS trying to fill-in for Correa, while he does ok there on a short-term basis but he's over-stretched long-term. Martin is a natural 2Bman who has the potential & athleticism to be a valuable CFer. The problem it has taken the Twins 3 yrs. to discover this & that he's not a SS. Margot was signed to take over Taylor's CF spot but it was quickly discovered that Martin (with all his warts learning MLB CF on the fly) is better than Margot. Thank God for Martin but better yet bring up Keirsey & release Margot if we need to. Thank God we have Castro to fill in wherever we need at a quality level. Thank God for Vazquez & his ability to stay healthy otherwise we'd be sunk a long time ago. We have an abundance of defense where we don't need it but we are being stretched at the positions where it's very vital. Hurry up Correa, Buxton & Lee.

[Hunter McCall]

22 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Martin needs a pass on his defensive stats as he is really a second baseman being asked to play the OF which he has had little time playing in the past.  Willi is somewhat exposed playing a very difficult position every day.  He is a utility guy for a reason.

This is the Twins way with their current FO/Manager... have players who play multiple positions but play none of them well enough to be an every day player at that position.  They need to go back to many repetitions at ONE position to get excellent defensive players and then try to keep from moving them around.  Did they move Morneau or Hrbek around?  Did they ask Gaetti to play 2B?  Did they move Puckett or Hunter to the IF?  I get flexibility, but there is a limit to what you can ask a player to do.

I agree that both should get a pass. My overarching point is that, at the moment, the Twins defense is stretched rather thin due to injuries and it's putting guys in positions that they are destined to be unsuccessful in.

I like that the Twins have guys that can play many positions as I think it makes it easier to field the best possible lineup when someone goes down. The defensive numbers will improve as the health does, but they're going to have to overcome some shaky defensive play until that happens.