The State of the Twins Defense, and the Prospects for Improvement

The 2024 Minnesota Twins are a solid defensive team, on paper. Unfortunately, the team has dealt with several injuries at critical positions, forcing new faces to step up and fill in, so the paper is getting a bit rumpled and covered with crossed-out corrections. A Royce Lewis injury opened the door for the return of José Miranda. Willi Castro currently acts as the team's primary shortstop, as another bout of plantar fasciitis for Carlos Correa has left him sidelined since before the All-Star break--and shoulder trouble has thwarted Plan B for the position, in the person of Brooks Lee. With all these moving parts, what is the overall state of the team’s defense?

As a team, the Twins rank 6th in MLB in Statcast's Outs Above Average (OAA), which relates to a player’s range as a fielder and how many more outs they contribute compared to the average fielder given the same opportunities. Interestingly, while the team ranks well in OAA, they rank 22nd in MLB in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). They're eighth in MLB in opponents' rate of reaching base on balls in play (RBBIP), which is similar to BABIP but also builds in errors. Essentially, according to the numbers, the team exhibits good range and ability to record outs, but doesn’t save as many runs as they should, compared to other teams. How?

One reason for this struggle may come from the current state of the shortstop position. The value of Correa at shortstop cannot be overstated. The former Platinum Glove winner carries an aura about him that makes everyone around him better. Everything feels smoother when Correa is on the field. His rocket arm allows for faster double plays, and his quick hands and long wingspan when tagging out runners make him a valuable asset in controlling the running game. He’s been down, however, and the Twins have had to turn to Castro as the everyday option. In terms of OAA, Castro has been great. He ranks in the 85th percentile according to StatCast, and has +4 OAA as a shortstop.

DRS doesn’t view him as kindly. Castro currently ranks 4th to last in the entire league, with -11 DRS. While he brings excellent value to the Twins as an All-Star ubiquity man, Castro appears to be overextended as an everyday shortstop. With the recent news that Correa is ramping up activity, hopefully, Castro will soon be allowed to return to his normal utility role. Even once he returns, though, the Twins might want Correa off his feet a bit more often, so Castro needs to shore up his play.

While Castro has shown some ability to make plays at shortstop, the team’s worst defensive liability to this point in the season has been Austin Martin. Although Martin has only played 460 innings, he accounts for -9 DRS and -7 OAA as an outfielder. Like Castro, Martin has often been asked to fill in for an injured Platinum Glove winner (Byron Buxton), and the difference has been dramatic. He has shown flashes and is young and athletic, so he will certainly continue to grow this portion of his game as he progresses, but at the moment, he is really going through it defensively. Assuming the team is fully healthy come October, it’s hard to imagine a world where the Twins feel comfortable playing Martin as anything other than a pinch-runner.

Injury questions (ostensibly) aside, the most intriguing thing to watch is how the Twins divvy duties at third base. While Lewis (+1 OAA) has been a more rangy option than Miranda (-3 OAA), Miranda holds the edge in DRS (Lewis has -1 DRS, while Miranda has +2). It's about a horse apiece, as far as the numbers go. The kicker may come down to how they feel they can best keep Lewis healthy down the stretch. He doesn’t seem to lose anything at the plate as a DH, so the team may continue using him in that role to keep him fresh. One thing is for sure: the Twins want both Lewis and Miranda in their daily lineup, regardless of who plays where.

Another defensive group with a wide margin between the everyday players is at catcher. Christian Vázquez is tied for 18th in MLB in DRS, at +10. Additionally, he ranks in the 91st percentile in pitch framing and has a +2 rating for his catcher’s ERA (cERA). In other words, pitchers tend to allow fewer runs with him behind the plate, be that a matter of game-calling or of helping hurlers manage the difficult moments, emotionally. Ryan Jeffers, on the other hand, has -7 DRS and is in the 12th percentile in pitch framing, with a -2 cERA to boot. Vázquez does almost everything better defensively than Jeffers, and by a wide margin. While Vázquez was left on the bench for the Twins’ postseason run in 2023, if he keeps a hot bat while Jeffers continues to sputter, the team will have some tough decisions to make come October.

When they're even close to full health, the Twins rank among the league’s best defensive teams. They have enough defensive talent to use their fielding as an asset through the playoff push. I’ve mentioned Correa, Buxton, and Vázquez as players who all offer better defensive abilities over their counterparts. I never even touched on Carlos Santana, who is having one of the best defensive seasons in an already impressive career. The state of the Twins' defense might not be in the best place today, but with a bit of luck in the health department at the right time, it should look a lot different come October.