2014 MLB (Rule 4) First Year Player Draft

[kab21]

I really don't find myself loving Trea Turner. Perhaps I'm just weary of players whose top tool is speed though.

[howieramone1406390264]

I really don't find myself loving Trea Turner. Perhaps I'm just weary of players whose top tool is speed though.

I agree. Surprised only 3 college pitchers in the top 15. I'm hoping for our SS of the future with some pop, otherwise a college starter with a high floor who can make it to Target Field in 2015.

[Kwak]

This might be the year to "draft down" and pay underslot and pounce on a HS kid who didn't go 1st round, and "overpay" to get him to sign.

[cmb0252]

This might be the year to "draft down" and pay underslot and pounce on a HS kid who didn't go 1st round, and "overpay" to get him to sign.

 

I don't know. This is a pretty damn good draft class. The top end is pretty impressive. We might be stuck taking a high schooler again, which will make general prospect fans mad, but people who follow the draft closely excited. Kind of like this past year with Stewart.

[Spicoli]

We need to start losing more, hopefully we can deal Morneau and really suck.

[Ncgo4]

I don't think so. Trading Morneau wouldn't do much damage. We should trade him, but not for that reason. It would open up 1st B for Colabello. Incidentally, C got another 2 R dinger in the 2nd inning to give Gibson a 2-0 lead. Unfortunately, he couldn't hold it.

[Oxtung]

I agree. Surprised only 3 college pitchers in the top 15. I'm hoping for our SS of the future with some pop, otherwise a college starter with a high floor who can make it to Target Field in 2015.

 

I've never really understood this philosophy. Just to flesh this out a bit, why would you want a #3 starter from 2016-2022 instead of a #1 starter from 2019-2025? Either way you get 6 (or 7) years of control. I understand that is a simplified view and nothing is that cut and dry but that seems to be the general argument being made and I've just never understood it.

[cmb0252]

I've never really understood this philosophy. Just to flesh this out a bit, why would you want a #3 starter from 2016-2022 instead of a #1 starter from 2019-2025? Either way you get 6 (or 7) years of control. I understand that is a simplified view and nothing is that cut and dry but that seems to be the general argument being made and I've just never understood it.

 

I agree. I hated the Wimmers pick a few years ago because when you take "safe" high floor guy so much of his value is tied up in making it to the bigs fast. If they don't, like Wimmers, then you wasted a chance at a more talented player. With a high pick you grab BPA regardless of need/level.

[howieramone1406390264]

I've never really understood this philosophy. Just to flesh this out a bit, why would you want a #3 starter from 2016-2022 instead of a #1 starter from 2019-2025? Either way you get 6 (or 7) years of control. I understand that is a simplified view and nothing is that cut and dry but that seems to be the general argument being made and I've just never understood it.

There are 15-20 #1 starters in all of baseball. I feel the parade will start in 2015, and I would like a reinforcement. Just my opinion. Last draft prediction I was correct on was Wimmers.

[kab21]

It's tough to hate the Wimmers pick except in hindsight. Perhaps you weren't as excited about it as others but draft picks in the 20's usually come with big question marks. Taking a safer guy at that point is not terrible. Taking a Wimmers type in the top 10 or even top 5 would be infuriating though.

[old nurse]

They should have taken the ss Simmons with their 1st round pick instead of hoping he would be there in the second

[diehardtwinsfan]

I agree. Surprised only 3 college pitchers in the top 15. I'm hoping for our SS of the future with some pop, otherwise a college starter with a high floor who can make it to Target Field in 2015.

 

This doesn't make a lot of sense for a team picking in the top 10. It makes a ton of sense if you are picking in the 20s. There's some pretty elite talent in next season's draft, so walking away with a Trea Turner type guy or a high ceiling pitcher makes the most sense.

[InfraRen]

Been winning a bit too much over the last couple weeks......

 

[nicksaviking]

It's tough to hate the Wimmers pick except in hindsight. Perhaps you weren't as excited about it as others but draft picks in the 20's usually come with big question marks. Taking a safer guy at that point is not terrible. Taking a Wimmers type in the top 10 or even top 5 would be infuriating though.

 

Most Twins fans were pretty disappointed with the Wimmers pick and everyone predicted they would take him. Even though he was the pitcher tabbed to be closest to MLB ready, no other team wanted him because he had a very low ceiling and most teams want high ceiling in the 1st round.

 

I wanted Zach Lee, but they also passed on HS arms Jesse Biddle, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, and Tijuan Walker. Cam Bedrosian was the other HS pitcher drafted soon after Wimmers, but 5 of the 6 are still top 100 prospects. With the Stewart and Berrios picks the Twins look to be over the safe, low ceiling picks, it's just unfortunte they didn't adjust that philosophy sooner.

 

They should have taken the ss Simmons with their 1st round pick instead of hoping he would be there in the second

 

Yeah, that would have been a nice grab too. I didn't realize until now he went only one spot ahead of Niko Goodrum. That draft had the possiblities of being huge when you consider they also got Rosairo in the 4th round. There are a lot of C type prospects the Twins got in that draft also. Still, I notice they didn't draft and sign any HS arms that year.

[TwinsFanInPhilly]

Rather the re-hashing the second-guessing of prior drafts I have a question about the 2014 draft. I am led to believe that it is a deeper draft than 2013 but it seems to me (amateur of amateurs that I am) that with the exception of Rodon it is light at the top in College LHP.

 

Can someone set me straight on this or provide other names at the top of this category? Many thanks in advance

[cmb0252]

Rather the re-hashing the second-guessing of prior drafts I have a question about the 2014 draft. I am led to believe that it is a deeper draft than 2013 but it seems to me (amateur of amateurs that I am) that with the exception of Rodon it is light at the top in College LHP.

 

Can someone set me straight on this or provide other names at the top of this category? Many thanks in advance

 

LHP, especially college, is always weak. After Rodon the next guy is Sean Newcomb from Hartford college. He is a 6'5" 240 lbs lefty who some experts compare to Jon Lester. His fastball hit 95 a few times last summer and has reportedly hit 97 this summer. Could be this years Sean Manaea.

 

TCU's Brandon Finnegan is the other big name lefty. He has a fastball that sits in the 92-95 range that has reportedly hit 100 this summer in the Cape League. He also has a slurve that is above average and a curve that has flashed above average. Only major knock on Finnegan is he is 5'11" which will keep some teams away.

 

After those three you have a mix of guys that can sneak into the back of the first round. Florida's A.J. Reed has three average pitches and good command but most people prefer him at 1B where he shows good raw power. Jacob Lindgren of Mississippi State and John Hochstatter of Stanford are control LHP pitchers with average stuff. If they develop out pitch they might sneak in.

 

That's the main group of college lefties.

[kab21]

Most Twins fans were pretty disappointed with the Wimmers pick and everyone predicted they would take him. Even though he was the pitcher tabbed to be closest to MLB ready, no other team wanted him because he had a very low ceiling and most teams want high ceiling in the 1st round.

 

I wanted Zach Lee, but they also passed on HS arms Jesse Biddle, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, and Tijuan Walker. Cam Bedrosian was the other HS pitcher drafted soon after Wimmers, but 5 of the 6 are still top 100 prospects. With the Stewart and Berrios picks the Twins look to be over the safe, low ceiling picks, it's just unfortunte they didn't adjust that philosophy sooner.

 

You lose all hindsight credibility if you think there was non-zero chance of the Twins taking Lee. Other teams wanted Wimmers and he would have been taken in the first rd.

 

Sickels considered it a good pick as did most at the time. It was boring that but that doesn't mean it was a bad pick.

 

Minnesota – Up

Wimmers fits the Minnesota mold. He’s low risk, but he has very good stuff and is similar to Scott Baker at the same stage. He is not a finesse pitcher.

2010 MLB Draft Grades, Part 2: Cubs, Yankees, Mets Get Day One Thumbs Down - SBNation.com

[cmb0252]

Draft notes from Mr.Law's chat:

 

Confusion is mine, but "Beede will go below where the Jays will pick".... as in he's rated higher or lower than the Jays 'projected' draft spot?

Klaw (2:23 PM)

Jays will pick high, and he wouldn't be ranked that high on my board right now.

Who has the better stuff Appel or Rodon? I know the draft is a long way off but is Rodon a no brainer for Houston?

Klaw (1:04 PM)

Rodon has the better slider. Appel has better command and a better change. If the draft were today, Rodon would be a no-brainer, but a lot can happen in ten months, including changes in health.

[Lonestar]

I really don't find myself loving Trea Turner. Perhaps I'm just weary of players whose top tool is speed though.

Byron Buxton says Hi!

 

Sorry. I couldn't help it. We all have our own preferences. What's not to love? There's no question that he stays at SS. His only weakness being lack of power = low double digit HR's (not bad for a SS. Or a Twin). More walks than strikeouts for a leadoff hitter who turns walks into triples. Raves about his makeup.

 

Scout.com: 2014 MLB Draft Preview: College Hitters

 

Seems like a high floor and a stratospheric ceiling. Much less risk than a pitching prospect and reward that might fit with Buxton, Sano, and Rosario.

[kab21]

Byron Buxton says Hi!

 

Sorry. I couldn't help it. We all have our own preferences. What's not to love? There's no question that he stays at SS. His only weakness being lack of power = low double digit HR's (not bad for a SS. Or a Twin). More walks than strikeouts for a leadoff hitter who turns walks into triples. Raves about his makeup.

 

Scout.com: 2014 MLB Draft Preview: College Hitters

 

Seems like a high floor and a stratospheric ceiling. Much less risk than a pitching prospect and reward that might fit with Buxton, Sano, and Rosario.

 

Ugh...

 

Buxton's other tools are probably all in the 55-70 range while the rest of Turner's probably top out at 55 (or maybe 60). Sounds more like Billy Hamilton imo. Not what I'm looking for in the probable top 5.

[Kwak]

The International market is where SSs are found. The "high-ceiling" American teens are way too likely to eat their way out of SS.

[Mike Sixel]

Great thread guys. Thanks for all the info. I too am hoping starting pitcher or SS. I admit a bias for pitching, since I am not quite as high on some of their current guys as some of you are. BTW, while I generally want the Twins to be more aggressive, I liked the Wimmers pick, given that he was described as like Baker. That is a good pick in the 20s, IMO.

[nicksaviking]

You lose all hindsight credibility if you think there was non-zero chance of the Twins taking Lee. Other teams wanted Wimmers and he would have been taken in the first rd.

 

Sickels considered it a good pick as did most at the time. It was boring that but that doesn't mean it was a bad pick.

 

 

2010 MLB Draft Grades, Part 2: Cubs, Yankees, Mets Get Day One Thumbs Down - SBNation.com

 

Yeah, the chances the Twins would have taken any of the high school arms were zero, they were not willing to take HS arms at the time. That doesn't mean many, or perhaps even most Twins fans weren't still championing the cause. You don't really think every one of those teams that picked their top 100 HS arm really would have picked Wimmers over their high upside stud?

 

So many people were predicting him to go to the Twins and many even said it was a good pick, but nearly everyone said he was also a back end of the rotation arm. Many people who said it was a good pick were saying it was because he fit into the "Twins mold," meaning low velocity, low ceiling. Sure he would have been taken in the first round, but 20 other team passed up the "sure thing" why was that?

 

I don't remember any local reactions to the pick more positive than blase.

 

 

Round One: Minnesota Twins Select Alex Wimmers - Twinkie Town

[AlwaysinModeration]

By muddling along at about 500 for the past few weeks (15-13 since the ASG), the Twins have fallen from a strong fourth in the standings for the upcoming draft to their current spot in 10th place. Teams like the Angels, Phillies and Giants have passed them by, with the Mets, Mariners and Blue Jays lurking within a couple of games. If the Twins aren't careful, they could wind up with the 14th pick in next years draft.

 

Which, in view, would be a terrible outcome for this lost season. This draft looks big--and I don't think I need to convince people that there is a big difference between drafting top 5 and top 15.

[old nurse]

By muddling along at about 500 for the past few weeks (15-13 since the ASG), the Twins have fallen from a strong fourth in the standings for the upcoming draft to their current spot in 10th place. Teams like the Angels, Phillies and Giants have passed them by, with the Mets, Mariners and Blue Jays lurking within a couple of games. If the Twins aren't careful, they could wind up with the 14th pick in next years draft.

 

Which, in view, would be a terrible outcome for this lost season. This draft looks big--and I don't think I need to convince people that there is a big difference between drafting top 5 and top 15.

Is Deduno's arm is dead? How close is Gibson's pitch limit? Is Albers is a mirage? All too soon it will be live auditions for next year's starting rotation as the various members of the Rochester Red Wings staff will get another chance to prove that is where they belong.

[old nurse]

Then again they could come up and pitch to their maximum potential as they might be up long enough to get the paycheck and see the difference in pay. Rather than the pittance of minor league pay they will see their major league salary and be inspired. Making the most money is the reason people do things I have been told. Then they will get the 15th pick

[nicksaviking]

Is Deduno's arm is dead? How close is Gibson's pitch limit? Is Albers is a mirage? All too soon it will be live auditions for next year's starting rotation as the various members of the Rochester Red Wings staff will get another chance to prove that is where they belong.

 

Also moving the suddenly reliable Morneau could help/tank the scenario.

 

The Twins are only two games up on having the 14th pick, but also only two games up on the 4th seed. MLB has never had the issues of teams tanking like they do in the NBA, but if the "race" is this close come the last week or two of the season, people may have some questions. The arguement that teams may be tanking the last week of the season is also going to have some creedence due to the increased reliance on the draft and the draft slotting process keeping prices lower for top picks.

[Kwak]

Also moving the suddenly reliable Morneau could help/tank the scenario.

 

The Twins are only two games up on having the 14th pick, but also only two games up on the 4th seed. MLB has never had the issues of teams tanking like they do in the NBA, but if the "race" is this close come the last week or two of the season, people may have some questions. The arguement that teams may be tanking the last week of the season is also going to have some creedence due to the increased reliance on the draft and the draft slotting process keeping prices lower for top picks.

 

I'm guessing come September Morneau will be sitting most of the time.

[cmb0252]

For those draft followers I found this list on the top 50 draft prospects for 2014. While I don't know who wrote it most of the information seems accurate. Good read for people trying to figure out the main names to watch for:

 

2014 MLB draft: Top 50 prospects | Sports