Core 4: Reranking the Minnesota Twins' Young Pitching Prospects

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

MLB-ready is often an oxymoron when I hear it.  If someone's so darned "ready", why ain't they using him themselves instead of trading him?  I take it with a grain of salt and am prepared for either a lower ceiling than advertised (Martin) or else a longer gestation period (Richardson).  I'm patient when prospects are acquired at a young age - Richardson wasn't yet 21 on the day he was traded to us, just a baby*.  My only requirement is that they pan out.  (Pretty low bar I set, eh?)

 

* mixing metaphors is just one of the many fine services I offer the discriminating reader

Major league ready means there is nothing lrft for them to prove in the minors. 

Prospects that pan out that are traded for the non perennial all star player tend to be the high ranked prospects the club trades because the club doesn’t think they are going to make it. Credit the receiving club for any success they might have. 

[dxpavelka]

1 minute ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Correct, also decisions change. Varland is a starter now. He may not be in the future.

True.  But it will be someone else's call.  Along those lines, and I may be the only one in the state that sees it this way, but I think eventually, the call to put Duran in the pen eventually costs us in  a different way.  I think the day he becomes eligible for free agency, he sees the difference in his monetary value as a starter and as a closer and doesn't even give us the time of day in contract talks.

[wabene]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Maybe but in the ensuing years we gave up significant assets to get guys to fill the hole his departure left in the rotation.  Mahle, Gray, Lopez.  Any or all of those deals may have been unnecessary had we held on to the best we developed on our own in a decade.  Just sayin

Yes, but they were they only assets the Pohlads were willing to part with. The Twins were never signing him to that deal. Personally I don't think he would have stayed here even if we offered the same cash.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

True.  But it will be someone else's call.  Along those lines, and I may be the only one in the state that sees it this way, but I think eventually, the call to put Duran in the pen eventually costs us in  a different way.  I think the day he becomes eligible for free agency, he sees the difference in his monetary value as a starter and as a closer and doesn't even give us the time of day in contract talks.

agreed, it’s someone else’s call

I can see a scenario where Duran’s contract extension talks are impacted by the FO and Manager converting him to a reliever.

[wabene]

Does anyone think the Twins will pony up for an extension for any reliever? I'd be very surprised.

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, arby58 said:

Fair enough, but Berrios' starting pitching time with Toronto has averaged out to a 4.40 ERA - he hasn't been 'lights out' for the Blue Jays either.

What Berrios has done is totally irrelevant. If you sell a $100k Ferrari for $50k in Bitcoin and the buyer goes out and wrecks it so it's now worth $0, that doesn't mean the seller did well.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

What Berrios has done is totally irrelevant. If you sell a $100k Ferrari for $50k in Bitcoin and the buyer goes out and wrecks it so it's now worth $0, that doesn't mean the seller did well.

Say what?? If you're figuring out who won a trade, you examine both sides of the ledger.

[arby58]

5 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Maybe but in the ensuing years we gave up significant assets to get guys to fill the hole his departure left in the rotation.  Mahle, Gray, Lopez.  Any or all of those deals may have been unnecessary had we held on to the best we developed on our own in a decade.  Just sayin

Berrios wasn't the only 'hole' in the rotation the Twins tried to fill - they basically had no rotation. Last year, both Gray and Lopez outperformed him, and this year, SWR has a 1.9 WAR and Berrios a 1.6.

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, old nurse said:

Major league ready means there is nothing lrft for them to prove in the minors.

Of course.  DaShawn Keirsey is a prime example.

I was making the point that neither Martin nor Richardson was actually any such thing, despite the label placed on them. They both had plenty to prove (more precisely, to learn) down on the farm.  Both would have been humbled, no humiliated, had they been brought up right after the trade.

[dxpavelka]

7 hours ago, wabene said:

Yes, but they were they only assets the Pohlads were willing to part with. The Twins were never signing him to that deal. Personally I don't think he would have stayed here even if we offered the same cash.

I think he would have.  Foolish to not try.

[dxpavelka]

6 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

agreed, it’s someone else’s call

I can see a scenario where Duran’s contract extension talks are impacted by the FO and Manager converting him to a reliever.

yup.  that's gonna suck

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

Berrios wasn't the only 'hole' in the rotation the Twins tried to fill - they basically had no rotation. Last year, both Gray and Lopez outperformed him, and this year, SWR has a 1.9 WAR and Berrios a 1.6.

You ready to throw SWR out there in a Game 3?

[wabene]

8 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

I think he would have.  Foolish to not try.

Foolish? The Pohlad's would probably disagree. Personally I would've loved it if they had signed La Machina long term, but I was sure it wouldn't happen.

[RaoulDuke]

Festa has the best stuff by far.  The change and slider have legit break if he can harness the command of them, the fastball is already 95+ and he seems to be able to spot it pretty good.  His change seems kinda fast which blends with the slider speed, not sure how much that will matter but he kinda has 2 speeds would be nice to see the slower curve improve as a 4th option.

Zebby I haven't watched much of but the stats and watching his first start he seems like a real solid arm.  Somewhat the opposite of Festa where command of everything is going to be his strength, though he is pumping it in the mid 90s.  Kinda Joe Ryan vibes to me maybe? 

SMR is having a great season so far.  Not sure I see him being a playoff starter ideally but he is in that 4/3 range.

Varland is a decent back of the rotation guy that could excel in the pen to me.  Not sure there is anything dominate to latch on too but solid for an inning+ is only growing in value.

[arby58]

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

You ready to throw SWR out there in a Game 3?

As noted, he has a better WAR this season than Berrios, a better ERA and a better WHIP. Why wouldn't you? It's not as if he hasn't been pitching in important games for the Twins. He's been the winning pitcher against Houston (twice) and pitched well in close losses to Cleveland and Philadelphia. Those are all play-off teams.

Meanwhile, Berrios' one play-off start for the Twins didn't go so well - 3 innings, 3 earned runs, 1.667 WHIP in a loss to the Yankees (who else?). In fact, he is 0-4 in the post-season between the Twins and Blue Jays, including a loss to the Twins last year.

[JD-TWINS]

On 8/17/2024 at 8:49 AM, Werbellik said:

Same as you ranked them but only the first three. Varland is needed in the bullpen. If the need eventually arises he can be ramped up quickly. I don't understand with the insistence of being a starter when he can acrue big league service time relieving. He certainly looks like a reliever to me.

The reasoning with Varland having remained a starter through the year is due to necessity.

Matthews has ONE MLB start. Varland has pitched, as a starter, in parts of 3 MLB seasons.

There are 3 Rookies in our current rotation…..that was never the Plan.

There’s nobody else that makes any sense as any sort of depth for the current rotation. One of them gets a blister, a sore shoulder, fatigue…….the games keep happening every day. Varland will remain in line and ready as a starter until September 15-20, at which point the Team will have to get him Pen ready and assume they will finish the last two weeks w/o any problems.

[Otaknam]

From what we’ve seen so far I’m not convinced that Festa is more than a mid rotation guy. Also, Rocco doesn’t trust him to pitch more than five innings, but he does that to any rookie starter, including Ober. Hopefully  I am wrong and Festa continues to emerge. Matthews is intriguing because of his pinpoint control and mid 90s fastball and secondary stuff. He might have the highest ceiling of this group. With a middling fastball, SWR does seems like a solid back of the rotation starter who could give the team 150 innings. But I believe his fastball sits in low 90s, which isn’t great at this level. I agree with other comments that Varland would be a lights out reliever, but with the dearth of quality starters across MLB they do need to see if he can get the job done as a starter. As for Priellip, he is at least pitching now and getting in some innings, regardless of the results. He can spend the winter getting back to where he wants to be, and hopefully start ramping up next year with quality innings. 

[beckmt]

They are starting to let Raya ramp up now in Wichita, so he may be a little more than a year away also.

[Fatbat]

@Otaknam SWR’s fastball is regularly 95/96 and has touched just under 98.  One of the reasons that he is no longer a failing AAA guy. He revamped and developed other things besides velocity in the offseason as well.  
 

[dxpavelka]

22 hours ago, wabene said:

Foolish? The Pohlad's would probably disagree. Personally I would've loved it if they had signed La Machina long term, but I was sure it wouldn't happen.

Had we offered the same contract the Jays did, I think he would have signed.

[dxpavelka]

14 hours ago, arby58 said:

As noted, he has a better WAR this season than Berrios, a better ERA and a better WHIP. Why wouldn't you? It's not as if he hasn't been pitching in important games for the Twins. He's been the winning pitcher against Houston (twice) and pitched well in close losses to Cleveland and Philadelphia. Those are all play-off teams.

Meanwhile, Berrios' one play-off start for the Twins didn't go so well - 3 innings, 3 earned runs, 1.667 WHIP in a loss to the Yankees (who else?). In fact, he is 0-4 in the post-season between the Twins and Blue Jays, including a loss to the Twins last year.

I didn't say I wouldn't.  I just remember a lot of angst among the fan base as recently as the trade deadline  three weeks ago about a lack of qualified playoff caliber starting pitching at a point when Lopez, Ryan and Ober were all healthy and performing among the top two dozen pitchers in MLB.  Didn't sound like folks were ready for SWR to get the ball with the season on the line.

[wabene]

3 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Had we offered the same contract the Jays did, I think he would have signed.

The Pohlad's were not doing that anyway so it is a waste of time to lament it. They got the cheaper deal with Pablo, that is what they are looking for. Now we have a 23 year old starter for the rest of this year and 5 more years at team friendly prices. That is 6 years of Sim for 1.4 years of Barrios. 6 years of Austin Martin too. I don't know what there is to complain about with this.

[dxpavelka]

4 hours ago, wabene said:

The Pohlad's were not doing that anyway so it is a waste of time to lament it. They got the cheaper deal with Pablo, that is what they are looking for. Now we have a 23 year old starter for the rest of this year and 5 more years at team friendly prices. That is 6 years of Sim for 1.4 years of Barrios. 6 years of Austin Martin too. I don't know what there is to complain about with this.

You obviously didn't read what I wrote.  Are we ignoring the cost to acquire Mahle, Gray and Lopez?

 

[wabene]

26 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

You obviously didn't read what I wrote.  Are we ignoring the cost to acquire Mahle, Gray and Lopez?

 

I think it is you who is not paying attention. This is what I said a few posts earlier; 

On 8/17/2024 at 4:50 PM, wabene said:

Yes, but they were they only assets the Pohlads were willing to part with. The Twins were never signing him to that deal. Personally I don't think he would have stayed here even if we offered the same cash.

The Pohlad's are not signing enormous free agent contracts for pitching, but they will part with other assets. So again you are wasting your time complaining about it. Barrios has been mediocre anyway and they got more value in return. SWR is going to give them 6 years of quality cost controlled pitching, plus whatever Martin can provide. 

At this point now you have me repeating myself so we're at an impass. Fair enough I don't need to change your mind.