Astros' Resurgence Ruins a Reliever Reuinion

[Ted Schwerzler]

When the Minnesota Twins rescued Ryan Pressly from the Boston Red Sox prior to the 2013 Major League Baseball season, they didn’t realize he would be such a strong Rule 5 Draft come up. Having now played for the Houston Astros longer, it would have been fun for Derek Falvey to bring him home.

Of course the greatest Minnesota Twins Rule 5 Draft selection in franchise history will forever be Johan Santana. However, selecting Ryan Pressly and watching him turn into one of the best relievers in the big leagues has to rank up there. Having won a World Series with the Houston Astros, and getting a $30 million deal prior to the 2023 season, the 2024 trade deadline would have been a good time to bring him home.

There are arguably fewer places on the roster where the Twins need help than in their bullpen. By adding high-quality relievers, everyone else gets pushed back a notch, and the overall water level rises. It would have been easier to suggest that an underwhelming Houston team was going to sell a few weeks ago, but their winning ways have them more focused on catching the Seattle Mariners.

Pressly is a native Texan, and Houston couldn’t embody where he finds comfort more, but returning to Minnesota would have bolstered a bullpen that needs his presence. He is making $14 million this season and will trigger a $14 million option next year. That's a bit rich for the Twins' blood, but an exception could have been made.

This season, Pressly has a 4.01 ERA for the underachieving Houston Astros. However, his 2.45 FIP is beyond solid, and he is still striking out more than ten batters per nine innings. He has never allowed fewer home runs throughout his career, and an inflated number of hits is throwing his WHIP out of whack.

There are some reasons to be cautious, of course. Pressly is now 35 years old and will play at 36 years old next season. His average fastball velocity is the lowest it has been since 2014, and he’s still using the pitch a good amount. He is generating fewer chases and isn’t causing opposing hitters to whiff as much.

On the flip side, the Twins organization he would be joining substantially differs from the one he left. Having been dealt during the 2018 season, Pressly has never played for Rocco Baldelli. Paul Molitor and his coaching staff seemed to struggle with communication with their bullpen in particular. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have installed Baldelli, along with a plethora of coaches who are capable of disseminating information and generating buy-in.

What Pressly has grown familiar with in Houston is now much more closely aligned with how the Twins handle business. He was teammates with both Carlos Correa and Christian Vazquez. Each can speak to the quality of their current employer, and it would be fun to see a full circle moment pairing the departed leverage arm with Jorge Alcala, one of two players the Twins received in the Pressly trade.

There’s almost no question about whether the Twins will add pitching help at the deadline. A starter could certainly be a consideration, but relief help makes a good amount of sense as well. Prioritizing a southpaw to supplement Steven Okert, Kody Funderburk, and Caleb Thielbar may be the goal, but adding a postseason-tested arm with familiarity has appeal.

Ryan Pressly isn’t a Minnesotan, and the Twins are hardly to be considered his home, but the franchise took a shot on him and sparked his career. Allowing him to impact them this season and next would have been something of a storybook ending.

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[LambchoP]

Sure Presley would be nice, I just don't see the Twins taking on that type of contract. I expect one or two trades for relief help, hopefully a lefty. I'd really like a starter, but I think that's a bit of a pipe dream..

[USAFChief]

7 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

Sure Presley would be nice, I just don't see the Twins taking on that type of contract. 

Concur.

Zero chance.

[Doctor Gast]

I was sorry to see Pressly go but what was done is done. Fate would not beg for a reunion.

[tony&rodney]

A Pressly article seems timely. He will finish his career with Houston unless he decides to pitch for much less cash. Great job of explaining his continued relevance and success; Pressly continues to be a good reliever.

Why does this post include a shot at former manager, Paul Molitor? I usually find myself complementing the writers and posts on Twins Daily, yet am not very tolerant about comments about former managers and regimes that are nearly always pointless and also not accurate. 

[old nurse]

One would think that a Twins fan would know that the Twins did not draft Johan

[Brandon]

56 minutes ago, old nurse said:

One would think that a Twins fan would know that the Twins did not draft Johan

I was going to mention that we traded for Johan.  But many just say we would have just drafted him had the deal not been worked out in advance.

when talking about all time great rule 5 picks you gotta bring up Shane Mack.  That guy hit like Miranda is hitting now.  
 

Pressley is right behind these guys and ahead of Scott Diamond.  He was a highly successful pick for sure.  Too bad it costs 10 million to keep him on the team or he might still be here at half that cost.  (From the Twins perspective not Pressley’s)

[Mark G]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

A Pressly article seems timely. He will finish his career with Houston unless he decides to pitch for much less cash. Great job of explaining his continued relevance and success; Pressly continues to be a good reliever.

Why does this post include a shot at former manager, Paul Molitor? I usually find myself complementing the writers and posts on Twins Daily, yet am not very tolerant about comments about former managers and regimes that are nearly always pointless and also not accurate. 

I concur completely.  I know this is a generalization, but I believe the single biggest complaint I read on this site is how Rocco handles his pitchers.  Whether it be how short the starts are, or how the pen has been used for years now, it seems to be the most often read critique of his management I see year in and year out.  So it struck me as odd that this article panned Molitor and beamed with pride about how great the manager and coaches are with pitchers here, and what a great reason for Pressly to come back to MN.  I wonder if Pressly concurs. 😏

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

One would think that a Twins fan would know that the Twins did not draft Johan

 

18 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I was going to mention that we traded for Johan.  But many just say we would have just drafted him had the deal not been worked out in advance...

Yep. Marlins and Twins were picking 1-2. Florida wanted Camp, and they were worried the Twins would grab him so they arranged a deal with the Twins. Twins got their guy (Santana), plus $50k in cash. Santana was always going to be the Twins' pick.

[bean5302]

The AL West should be interesting to watch. I could see the Astros moving Pressley if they falter. Not sure why everybody is so convinced the Twins will refuse to spend anything considering their TV deal is in place for this year, they're $25MM under last year's payroll, and they're a playoff team atm.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The AL West should be interesting to watch. I could see the Astros moving Pressley if they falter. Not sure why everybody is so convinced the Twins will refuse to spend anything considering their TV deal is in place for this year, they're $25MM under last year's payroll, and they're a playoff team atm.

With Tucker out, the Astros are tearing up Teams……if Verlander gets right, they’ll be buyers as I think they are nearly a lock to win that Division. Seattle has one of the lowest 5 offenses in the game - they can’t pitch themselves around that issue.

They anticipated Polanco to be at least League average and he’s struggled all season. Lots of K’s and no great OBP guys in their line-up.

Texas has enough pitching coming and enough talent in the line-up so they’ll not give up until well into September.

Angels could be a trade partner out of the West but the Top 3 teams will try to win the Division or bust, IMO.

[DocBauer]

There are absolutely some arms out there that might interest the Twins that are having a down season, but might be the victim of some tough luck with fine underlying numbers and might be a change of scenery and/or a mechanical tweak to get right again and really help the pen in a trade. And more than a few of them have already been mentioned in different articles here on TD.

Houston is doing better, and they aren't going to move Pressly unless they collapse. 

The Twins MIGHT consider picking up $5-6M remaining salary if they really liked the arm they brought back. But they sure aren't going to pick up any $14M salary option for 2025. Nor are they going to send additional prospects, or a better prospect, to the Astros for them to cover a portion of that salary for an arm that will be 35yo next season.

Pressly may or may not be done. Same with some of the other arms mentioned previously that are having down seasons. But Pressly's AVG is up 36  points from career norm, up 28 points in OB%, 49 points in SLG% and up 76 points in OPS. His BABIP is up 66 points, which might account for some bad luck or a mechanical tweak, but these are HUGE red flags across the board for a 34yo reliever with another year under contract.

Unless Varland implodes in the pen come August/September or Stewart's arm falls off...not even considering Topa for the moment...I'm more worried about a LH arm we can really feel confident in. Not opposed to a quality RH arm, I'm just not sure I see the need with Duran, Jax, Stewart, Alcala, and Varland. 

But if Pressly is moved for any reason,  it won't be to the Twins.