Ripples: Louie Varland's Return (Sort Of), A Huge Umpire Change Tonight, and a Proposed Rule Change

[Matthew Trueblood]

In honor of the Twins' lake-centric theme for their City Connect uniforms, we're going to offer up some notes on occasion for the balance of this summer, under the unifying headline "Ripples". Today, we have three quick but interesting topics to tackle.

Image courtesy of © Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports

Monday night's Twins-Rockies tilt was a crisp affair, played in 2 hours, 9 minutes and with a bevy of balls in play. Twins pitchers struck out 10 Colorado batters, but only issued one walk, and on the flip side, they only struck out and walked twice each on offense. 

That wasn't surprising, because Monday's home-plate umpire, Alfonso Márquez, is one of the game's more hitter-friendly (and balls in play-friendly) arbiters. Of 77 qualifying umps since the start of 2023, Márquez is 67th in Adjusted Strikes Looking (SL+), at 96.6. For that stat, 100 is average, and higher means more called strikes than expected, based on the location of pitches not swung at while they're behind the plate. He's also 19th in In Play% among those 77, meaning that when Márquez is back there, the ball tends to keep moving.

It's hard to come by a much larger change than the two teams will see tonight, as Lance Barrett dons the mask and chest protector instead of Márquez. Barrett is third in SL+, at 106.3. Whereas Márquez's calls have added 9.8 runs to scoreboards since the beginning of last season, Barrett's have prevented 17.7. Barrett's games also tend to involve more of the two least interesting true outcomes.

Since the best umpires have the least impact on the runs in either direction, it probably won't shock you to learn that Márquez ranks 55th in Adjusted Correct Call % over this sample, and that Barrett is even worse, at 72nd. For the very patient Twins offense, there's either a quick adjustment or an evening of frustration ahead. In four games with Barrett behind the dish over the last two seasons, they're 2-2, but have batted just .211/.264/.398, striking out 25.5 percent of the time and walking just 5.5 percent of the time.

Life With Louie
It's just a spot start for Louie Varland Tuesday night; he's not guaranteed anything beyond this chance to help the team stretch its starting rotation and get key pitchers some rest. However, this feels like a golden opportunity for the young righthander to have some success and reestablish his confidence at the MLB level. After the exceptionally tight zone that governs Triple-A baseball, Barrett's will feel positively oceanic. It's up to Varland, who has admirably lowered his walk rate during a St. Paul sojourn, to show he can make use of that space.

As you've heard by now, Varland has tweaked his pitch mix to optimize his development while pitching for the Saints, with more sinkers and changeups. The idea is to finally get him comfortable attacking the arm side of the plate, inside on righty batters and away from lefties.

The focus has also been on reshaping the changeup. Varland has seen a drop in the velocity difference between that pitch and his fastball while with St. Paul, but it's also moving more, both vertically and horizontally. That's a good trade for Varland. Tuesday will give him a chance to test some of his changes, and then he figures to get another chance to hone things in the minors.

It's Not Your Day, Kid
No less a luminary than Bill James once suggested that, for player safety and conflict management reasons, a pitcher be ejected automatically if they hit a second batter in any game. His theory was, if you plunk two guys in one game, you don't have adequate control that day--or there's something nefarious afoot.

That's too extreme, but as I watched the frustration (and injury risk) mount and tensions wind unnecessarily high Sunday afternoon, I couldn't help thinking that James was on the right track. Ben Heller of the Pirates didn't have any semblance of command that day, and it put the Twins in danger. It also invited anger that could have boiled over into a brawl.

Heller had already done some damage and angered some people in the Minnesota dugout by the time he hit Kyle Farmer, the third HBP of his day, and the game was over. The Pirates left him in, though, to continue absorbing a beating and spare their bullpen. It's not really fair to Heller that he was forced to do that, and it's even more unfair to the Twins that they were subjected to that risk longer than anyone would have called acceptable, except that the Pirates didn't want to use any more arms in a lost cause.

I wanted to see what it would look like to draw a line, somewhere, and automatically eject pitchers who plunk three batters in a game. For my money, it's viable. There have been 46 outings since the start of 2021 in which a pitcher did hit at least three batters, and in 18 of those, the hurler in question worked at least into the sixth inning. That's where we need to check on this, because if the rule were going to push a bunch of pitchers out of starts unnecessarily, it would be a no-go.

Instead, of those 18 appearances, only four would have been curtailed sharply by this rule. An automatic ejection after a third HBP would have knocked Yu Darvish out of a 2022 start in the first inning, and Zac Gallen out of one in the second. Both Chris Bassitt and Alex Wood would have been thrown out of starts in the third in 2021, even though they went on to at least see the sixth.

Much more often, though, third plunkings act as a sign to a skipper that his guy has lost it, anyway. While with the Marlins in 2022, Pablo López was voluntarily removed after hitting his third batter of the game, in the seventh inning. Tanner Houck has twice been lifted immediately after hitting his third batter of the game in the sixth inning, and Carlos Carrasco got the same treatment in one game last season. Another handful of times, pitchers got between one and three more batters after their third HBP.

Were this rule instituted, umpires would have to be slightly more strict in their enforcement of the rule against batters leaning into pitches. You don't want hitters forcing pitchers out of the game by trying desperately to get hit. At the same time, it would make each hit-by-pitch more interesting, and hitters could still find ways to draw an extra plunking here and there, to apply pressure to the pitcher and their manager.

Games like the one Heller had are inevitable. Their potential negative impact on the game and its players can be blunted, though, and I think we should seriously consider doing it.

View full article

[Doctor Gast]

Keep Varland up as a spot starter/ long relief. Twins need him in this capacity to keep the rotation & BP fresh for more quality innings & injury-free throughout the rest of the season. It's long overdue

[Jocko87]

Quote

Were this rule instituted, umpires would have to be slightly more strict in their enforcement of the rule against batters leaning into pitches.

It's one of the hardest things to officiate in the game and the batter always gets the benefit of the doubt especially at these velocities.  It's very hard to force yourself to lean into a pitch anyway, instinct kicks in when you are actually in there.  What you would have is some insane crowding of the plate if a big time starter hit someone.  Think Rizzo on steroids.

I'm envisioning a playoff game being decided by crowding Garrett Cole if he shows the least bit of wildness.  It completely changes how the game is played.  That's worse than anything we would be trying to avoid.  Keller was still in the game because of the stupid new rule on position players pitching down less than 8 runs. 

[SotaSports in NM]

When Heller hit Willi Castro for the second time and fourth time in 2 days I felt his rage as he threw his helmet into the ground. That was getting ridiculous. Though I ultimately agree that a rule for ejecting pitchers after a number of HBPs would inadvertently affect the game too much.

[SotaSports in NM]

Also, for Louie's sake (and most of our pitchers) I'm just glad we're playing in Minnesota and not Colorado. I fear those balls would be flying out of the park even more often than they do (which feels like it's been above average for our SPs).

 

[David Maro]

There's getting hit by the pitch and then there's getting hit by the pitch.When a hitter is hit in the butt or the back it is not the same as arm or leg.So in my mind if a pitcher hits a hitter on the back or the butt 3 times he is gone.

[Eris]

On the proposed rule change. If implemented it should be conditional on where the batter is within the batters box. If feet are close to the outside of the batters box then yes. If feet are close to the inside part of the batters box then no. One reason players are able to pull outside pitches is that they are crowding the inside part of the plate. There have been players who have been hit by balls that are almost strikes. 

[Patzky]

Said it before.. the Twins need to scout the umpires as well as the opposition.

[Patzky]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Keep Varland up as a spot starter/ long relief. Twins need him in this capacity to keep the rotation & BP fresh for more quality innings & injury-free throughout the rest of the season. It's long overdue

I think it's far better than the so-called bullpen game featuring guys like John Brebbia starting.

[Doctor Gast]

32 minutes ago, Patzky said:

I think it's far better than the so-called bullpen game featuring guys like John Brebbia starting.

John Brebbia?

[Lou Hennessy]

I used to love the show Life With Louie.

[Mark G]

9 hours ago, Lou Hennessy said:

I used to love the show Life With Louie.

Of course you would............Lou.   😉

[Patzky]

14 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

John Brebbia?

White Sox reliever started a game against the Twins a month ago. I think he also started against us as a Giant last year if memory serves.