Article: Cody's Top 10 Twins Prospects: Post-Draft Edition

[Cody Christie]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1880-Twins-Top-10-Prospects-Post-Draft-Edition

[Monkeypaws]

Pretty good - there are teams that would be thrilled to have your HMs.

[h2oface]

Kohl is not even signed and is a top 5 prospect. Well, that's hype for ya! For me, I think an important factor that is left out of the "prospect" equation on individual team's lists, is how fast they get to or can get to the MLB team. With most lists, they are devalued as they get more MLB ready (except the ones that include all the teams, perhaps), where as they actually become more valuable as they get closer to contributing, like Arcia (who may not really get to be called a prospect now). Kohl Stewart, for the very fact that in the Twins organization he is at least 3 years away, and more likely 4 or 5 or even 6........ well, his value is not as great in my mind. Kyle Gibson, as the pitcher most ready to actually contribute, would be surely ahead of Stewart for the Twins. But I respect your post and offering, for sure.

[glunn]

If only half these guys pan out, then the next decade will be a lot of fun for Twins fans.

[howieramone1406390264]

Nice to see 5 thru 8 were starting pitchers.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't get how Gibson keeps getting that low relative to other pitchers. We are pretty much 100% certain he is a MLB starter, I don't know we know that about Berrios or Meyer for sure yet. I get that they might have a higher upside, but we don't really know their floor. But, that's really a nit, generally the list looks good (both how you ranked them, and that the list has good players on it).

[jay]

Prospect lists have to balance ceiling with certainty and each ranking takes them into account differently. Guys like Sickels value certainty while rankings from someone like KLaw value ceiling. This list would tend to be a little closer to the latter. Nothing wrong with that.

 

It'll be interesting to see where Stewart ends up on the national lists this off-season.

[Badsmerf]

I don't get how Gibson keeps getting that low relative to other pitchers. We are pretty much 100% certain he is a MLB starter, I don't know we know that about Berrios or Meyer for sure yet. I get that they might have a higher upside, but we don't really know their floor. But, that's really a nit, generally the list looks good (both how you ranked them, and that the list has good players on it).

You don't know that. The Twins wont promote him so it is impossible to know that. Potential is weighed heavily in prospect lists, that is the nature of the sport. Coming into the year I would have had Arcia as the number one prospect because of how well he performed at such a young age. The reason people are rating Buxton so high is because his ceiling right now is a HOF player, same can be said about Sano. Imagine 3 HOF players on the Twins at the same time! That assumes Mauer gets in, which I think he should. Gibson doesn't have a lot of projection left yet either. We know what he is, and his stuff looks to be better than a #3 pitcher, but not a #1.

[jimbo92107]

I don't get how Gibson keeps getting that low relative to other pitchers. We are pretty much 100% certain he is a MLB starter, I don't know we know that about Berrios or Meyer for sure yet. I get that they might have a higher upside, but we don't really know their floor. But, that's really a nit, generally the list looks good (both how you ranked them, and that the list has good players on it).

 

Agreed. Kyle Gibson's delivery has some of the same precision and balance as Mark Appel. Gibson will be the team's ace pitcher the moment he ascends the mound at Target Field.

[Mike Sixel]

We do not know anything....but if you had to bet right now, which non-Kohl pitcher do you think is more likely to have a good MLB career, who would you bet your life on?

[kab21]

Gibson is underrated but I will take Meyer and Stewart above him. I would also bump Stewart into the #3 spot.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

Agreed.Gibson will be the team's ace pitcher the moment he ascends the mound at Target Field.

Agreed but all that basically means is that he has a pulse.

[IdahoPilgrim]

We do not know anything....but if you had to bet right now, which non-Kohl pitcher do you think is more likely to have a good MLB career, who would you bet your life on?

 

Do I have to bet my life? Can I bet somebody else's life on it instead?

[3rd Inning Stretch]

Hmmm mine are:

Buxton

Sano

Arcia

Rosario

Meyer

Berrios

Stewart

Gibson

Pinto

Kepler

 

Ceiling alone, I'd but Stewart 3, but is dropped with the certainty factor and how far from majors in my rankings.

[Shane Wahl]

I like Stewart, but I am not putting him ahead of Gibson, Meyer, or Berrios. He is just ahead of May for me. I am rather surprised that so many are willing to put Stewart on such a pedestal.

 

I don't think the Twins drafted well in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, so my top 60 prospect list isn't going to change all that much because of the draft. I will put Eades somewhere, of course, and Turner, but the latter's very realizable floor is Danny Lehmann. His ceiling is past Butera, but I don't know how much higher.

[Mike Sixel]

Do I have to bet my life? Can I bet somebody else's life on it instead?

 

Sure, but only if you place a value on it.

[launchingthrees]

We do not know anything....but if you had to bet right now, which non-Kohl pitcher do you think is more likely to have a good MLB career, who would you bet your life on?

 

J.O. followed by Meyer

[cmb0252]

I like Stewart, but I am not putting him ahead of Gibson, Meyer, or Berrios. He is just ahead of May for me. I am rather surprised that so many are willing to put Stewart on such a pedestal.

 

I don't think the Twins drafted well in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, so my top 60 prospect list isn't going to change all that much because of the draft. I will put Eades somewhere, of course, and Turner, but the latter's very realizable floor is Danny Lehmann. His ceiling is past Butera, but I don't know how much higher.

 

People said this last year with Buxton. How did that turn out? Elite talent is elite talent no matter what level they are at. I don't see the point of knocking Stewart just because he hasn't played in the minors yet.

[Mr. Ed]

Strib reporting Navaretto and Turner have signed.

[Mike Sixel]

J.O. followed by Meyer

 

You are braver than me....gibson is in AAA, and appears ready to be a number 3 starter in the majors in the next year or so. JO is in low A, and some scouts feel his FB is too straight. You, sir, are brave.

[nicksaviking]

So people seem fine with Buxton at #1, Berrios is many people's top pitcher and no one has complaints about Polanco or Harrison and Kepler has been thrown into the mix. However Stewart is a big question mark? Buxton, Berrios, Polanco and Harrison are still all low A and Kepler has yet to play there. Stewart was picked about 30 spots ahead of Berrios, I think people are underrating where he belongs.

[drjim]

We do not know anything....but if you had to bet right now, which non-Kohl pitcher do you think is more likely to have a good MLB career, who would you bet your life on?

 

Is that the best way to think of prospects though? It would be silly to argue anyone other than Gibson is more likely to have a good MLB career, but that is also pretty much the ceiling of Gibson at this point. The ceiling of Meyer and Stewart are much higher. Meyer could be a legit #1 for several years and he is not that far away. This value counts for something. i still want to see another year from Berrios.

 

I would rank the pitchers:

Meyer

Stewart

Gibson

Berrios

[drjim]

So people seem fine with Buxton at #1, Berrios is many people's top pitcher and no one has complaints about Polanco or Harrison and Kepler has been thrown into the mix. However Stewart is a big question mark? Buxton, Berrios, Polanco and Harrison are still all low A and Kepler hasn't yet to play there. Stewart was picked about 30 spots ahead of Berrios, I think people are underrating where he belongs.

 

Who has Berrios as their top pitcher?

[Shane Wahl]

I am a Gibson, Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, May guy.

 

HOLY HELL, that's five guys! Probably need one or maybe two lefties in the mix though.

 

It is good to think that I will now have 5 starting pitchers at spots 4,5,7, 8, and 10 for the Twins.

[Brad Swanson]

I am a Gibson, Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, May guy.

 

HOLY HELL, that's five guys! Probably need one or maybe two lefties in the mix though.

 

It is good to think that I will now have 5 starting pitchers at spots 4,5,7, 8, and 10 for the Twins.

 

I would order them the same way. I tend to favor proximity to the Majors with pitchers, but not with hitters. Pitchers get injured more frequently and tend to be harder to project. I wouldn't be shocked if I flipped Berrios and Stewart by seasons' end.

[Shane Wahl]

I would order them the same way. I tend to favor proximity to the Majors with pitchers, but not with hitters. Pitchers get injured more frequently and tend to be harder to project. I wouldn't be shocked if I flipped Berrios and Stewart by seasons' end.

 

That's right, though I do the same with position players too. Once they find success in AA I give them an extra boost in my rankings.

 

Berrios is crazy good. He was a sleeper pick last year. Stewart is headed to GCL, undoubtedly, and may end up in E-Town. I hope Stewart forces me to change my mind, because that would be good for the Twins.

[Thrylos]

With all the hype around Buxton, I still think that Sano is the top prospect. I am still waiting for Buxton to hit high A pitching. What Sano did (improve his OPS by close to 200 points from the MWL to the FSL) is practically insane and should be rewarded. I'd like Buxton to do the same before the conversation of him being better than Sano should even begin.

 

I would not ever rank Steward at this point, because he has not signed yet. If he signs, I'd like to have a look at him before I even place him, because everything else would be heresay and based on High School scouting reports.

[Thrylos]

I am a Gibson, Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, May guy. .

 

Hard to rate those, but at this point I would have Baxendale at least ahead of May and maybe even ahead of Berrios. May would really have to impress me at this point because he has taken a step back since he has not improved in his second AA season.

[cmb0252]

Stewart, Meyers, Gibson, Berrios, Mays for me. I don't understand knocking people because they haven't had a chance to play at X level yet. Give me elite tools any day.

[kab21]

Stewart

Meyer

Gibson

Berrios

 

May is in an entirely different tier for me and I might even consider ranking another pitcher ahead of him.

 

This also isn't underrating Gibson and Berrios. I think both of them are easily top 100 overall prospects but Meyer and Stewart are top 50 (approaching top 25) prospects. The Twins might not have the pitching depth in the minors but four pitchers in the overall top 100 is a claim that not many teams can make.