Article: Cody's Top 10 Twins Prospects: Post-Draft Edition

[Badsmerf]

The issue comes down to upside with Stewart vs. the field. Last season, I couldn't rate Buxton above guys like Arcia, Sano and Rosario after the seasons they had. I don't really think Meyer is in the same league as these guys. Now, Buxton has put some terrific results up this year, and has showed why he deserves recognition (still put Sano above him though). What sticks out is 2 plus-plus pitches, that is more plus-plus pitches than what was in the entire organization. With how aggressive the Twins have been lately with prospects, it might not take very long to get a look at him.

[launchingthrees]

You are braver than me....gibson is in AAA, and appears ready to be a number 3 starter in the majors in the next year or so. JO is in low A, and some scouts feel his FB is too straight. You, sir, are brave.

 

Scouts that I respect universally rave about J.O.'s stuff. There's no right answer here but I think Gibson is likely to be somewhere between a bit above average to a bit below average. I'm def open to the idea of Meyer first though.

[Seth Stohs]

Here was my pre-draft Top 20, with draft picks in parentheses (pre-signing):

 

1 - Buxton

2 - Sano

3 - Arcia

4 - Meyer

(Stewart)

5 - Berrios

6 - Rosario

7 - Gibson

8 - Vargas

9 - Polanco

10 - Harrison

11 - May

12 - Walker

13 - Pinto

14 - Kepler

15 - Goodrum

16 - Wimmers

17 - Santana

18 - Tonkin

19 - Z Jones

(Gonsalves)

20 - Rogers

[cmb0252]

The issue comes down to upside with Stewart vs. the field. Last season, I couldn't rate Buxton above guys like Arcia, Sano and Rosario after the seasons they had. I don't really think Meyer is in the same league as these guys. Now, Buxton has put some terrific results up this year, and has showed why he deserves recognition (still put Sano above him though). What sticks out is 2 plus-plus pitches, that is more plus-plus pitches than what was in the entire organization. With how aggressive the Twins have been lately with prospects, it might not take very long to get a look at him.

 

I understand new things can be scary but scouts are pretty good now of days identifying talent. BA just put out an article today about how the first round picks from last year are doing and for the most part it shows that elite talent will transfer to the minors. Most of the 1st rounders are doing better than expected. Here is what they had to say about Buxton:

 

Center fielder Byron Buxton, the No. 2 overall pick last June, has been better than even the Twins could have hoped. Buxton has shown speed, power, defense and a very advanced hitting approach as he’s dominated the low Class A Midwest League. He’s arguably the best prospect in baseball.

 

Scouting is more than just numbers.

 

Link to article:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/in-review-each-teams-top-pick-from-the-2012-draft/

[cmb0252]

Here was my pre-draft Top 20, with draft picks in parentheses (pre-signing):

 

1 - Buxton

2 - Sano

3 - Arcia

4 - Meyer

(Stewart)

5 - Berrios

6 - Rosario

7 - Gibson

8 - Vargas

9 - Polanco

10 - Harrison

11 - May

12 - Walker

13 - Pinto

14 - Kepler

15 - Goodrum

16 - Wimmers

17 - Santana

18 - Tonkin

19 - Z Jones

(Gonsalves)

20 - Rogers

 

Did you forget Eades? He has to be above several of those guys IMO.

[mako83]

I like Berrios he dominanting after less than a year at double. A potential 2014 twin that can miss bats. I admit Gibson is movating Pelf with every solid start but still hate the innings thing.

[nicksaviking]

Who has Berrios as their top pitcher?

 

J.O. followed by Meyer

 

It was one. I said many, but it was unintentional hyperbole. I was referring to all the thought that Berrios should be ranked ahead of Stewart.

 

Berrios is such an odd case. When drafted, most people were not familiar with him and in fact had a different choice for the 32nd pick with Mitch Brown, Lance McCullers, Matt Smoral and Joey Gallo getting requests from what I can recall of that night. Even though everyone seemed to have lost out on their horse, Berrios somehow instantly became a favorite, I think in part because of his tearful draft day video and the videos of his workouts. Interestingly, Luke Bard, the following Twins pick, who more people were familiar with, seemed to be a largely unpoplar pick. For fans of drafts, it is very rare that the unknown is embraced while the known is not.

 

Anyway, I'm getting at the fact that Berrios became a favorite on this site even before he threw a professional pitch. Stewart doesn't seem to be driving the same excitment despite being taken 28 picks higher the following draft.

[Mike Sixel]

Is that the best way to think of prospects though? It would be silly to argue anyone other than Gibson is more likely to have a good MLB career, but that is also pretty much the ceiling of Gibson at this point. The ceiling of Meyer and Stewart are much higher. Meyer could be a legit #1 for several years and he is not that far away. This value counts for something. i still want to see another year from Berrios.

 

I would rank the pitchers:

Meyer

Stewart

Gibson

Berrios

 

Well, to me, it about balancing upside and downside and "probabilities" (which I put in quotes because it's not like I'm doing real risk analysis calculations here). I think it is probable (others can disagree with good reason I admit) that Gibson is a number 3 or better pitcher in the majors. I think it is possible Meyer and Stewart are number 1 types, but I think it about as probable that Meyer is a number 3 or 4 or RP. To me, the fact that Gibson has succeeded at a higher level is a big deal. BTW, I think Stewart is the top pitching prospect right now, because his ceiling is so high......again, it's a side of the napkin calculation for me.

 

So, would I always say a guy that is likely to be in the majors is a better prospect than a higher upside, but riskier player? No. Sometimes the riskier guy is the better prospect. But I also think that some people in their lists underestimate the value of the guy that will definitely be in the majors. Look at Thielbar, for example. he's there, and successfull. I count that for a lot over a guy in low A that is currently a starter, but probably needs to be converted to a reliever. Those guys are very unklikely to make the majors, if you look at history and the numbers that don't make it. But Thielbar has made it, and to me, that's super valuable.

 

others disagree, and I 'm not sure that is bad. If we all agreed, and all took the same approach to solving problems, our solutions would not be as good in the long run.

[Mike Sixel]

I really should type those long replies in Word or Mail or something, to get the speeeeling right......sigh.

[jay]

Did you forget Eades? He has to be above several of those guys IMO.

 

I was wondering the same. He's more or less Wimmers minus TJ and a few years younger. I'd at least put him in that #15 range.

[drjim]

Mike, your explanation puts you very much in the John Sickels camp best I can tell.

[Twins Twerp]

I would think Eades in that 13-18 range makes sense. He is an established starter who could be a 2/3 starter potentially. He should be ahead of the starters and I personally would put him ahead of Goodrum I think. Luckily we should get to see him throw a little this season in rookie ball and in Omaha.

[jokin]

I would think Eades in that 13-18 range makes sense. He is an established starter who could be a 2/3 starter potentially. He should be ahead of the starters and I personally would put him ahead of Goodrum I think. Luckily we should get to see him throw a little this season in rookie ball and in Omaha.

 

If Seth didn't overlook Eades by mistake, this is one instance where I would agree with a wait-and-see approach on him before ranking him in the top 20.

 

Based on his Super-Regional performance, I don't think you're going to like what you see at Omaha. Eades' performance was, in a word or two, a mess. He was throwing the ball all over the place, and only occasionally in the strike zone (only 50% strikes), and many of those strikes were hit hard, all too frequently. The LSU Coach appeared to have little patience with him, warming up 2 relievers while he struggled in the 2nd inning. He settled down in his last 2 innings of work, but I doubt he would have gone much longer if there hadn't been a rain delay.

 

He's got a live arm with a big ceiling, to be sure, but truth be told, he's probably only the 5th best pitcher on LSU. It was just one game and hopefully he shows better this weekend, but he's going to need some big-time coaching up to restore his much more lofty pre-season ranking.

[stringer bell]

What about Pinto? I realize he isn't really young and he's not quite on the verge, but he is putting up great numbers at AA and plays a premium position.

[ashbury]

I like Stewart, but I am not putting him ahead of Gibson, Meyer, or Berrios. He is just ahead of May for me. I am rather surprised that so many are willing to put Stewart on such a pedestal.

 

Let's put it this way, suppose you were GM and some other team offered you a blockbuster trade but it involved one of these players (and supposing for the moment that you could trade such a recent draftee). Who would you give up first; who would you give up last?

[Red Bull]

Im beginning to think that Gibson wont be any better than a 4 or maybe an ok 3. I mean he just cant string together some good starts. Now today he had a really bad game just when he was at the point when we thought if he had a good outing he could be called up. It seems like he has 1 or 2 good starts then has a horrible day that sets him back all the time.

[jokin]

Im beginning to think that Gibson wont be any better than a 4 or maybe an ok 3. I mean he just cant string together some good starts. Now today he had a really bad game just when he was at the point when we thought if he had a good outing he could be called up. It seems like he has 1 or 2 good starts then has a horrible day that sets him back all the time.

 

This "consistency" contention is totally unfounded, insipid and rather absurd.

 

In Gibson's last 10 starts, he has had 4 games with ZERO runs scored (w/ a near no-hitter), his last 3 starts have been 1, 2 or 3 runs scored- all Quality Starts and then the 3 clinkers evenly sprinkled in the mix. During this 10 game run, his ERA is 2.89, his WHIP is 1.13, K/9 is 7.44, OBA is .228. Look back to last year's SP call-ups from Rochester, no one is close to these numbers. For that matter, no one is close to those numbers on the major league club.

[diehardtwinsfan]

This "consistency" contention is totally unfounded, insipid and rather absurd.

 

In Gibson's last 10 starts, he has had 4 games with ZERO runs scored (w/ a near no-hitter), his last 3 starts have been 1, 2 or 3 runs scored- all Quality Starts and then the 3 clinkers evenly sprinkled in the mix. During this 10 game run, his ERA is 2.89, his WHIP is 1.13, K/9 is 7.44, OBA is .228. Look back to last year's SP call-ups from Rochester, no one is close to these numbers. For that matter, no one is close to those numbers on the major league club.

 

Last year, some 23 year old kid named Liam Hendricks put up a 2.2 ERA with a WHIP just under 1 and struck out nearly 7 batters per nine innings... That kid didn't do so well post call up. I don't get the angst with Gibson. He isn't going to be saving this season and he's obviously not reaching his potential... that part is pretty obvious from here. I get that he may be better now that several of the current starters. He also still has some things to learn in Rochester that they don't.

[2wins87]

Mine are:

 

Buxton

Sano

Arcia

Rosario

Meyer

Berrios

Gibson

Stewart

Polanco

Harrison

 

I'd like to see Stewart at least get a few innings in before ranking him ahead of my current top 3 pitchers. If he struggles he probably stays in the same place. If he's brilliant he probably moves ahead of Gibson and Berrios.

[Seth Stohs]

Did you forget Eades? He has to be above several of those guys IMO.

 

I don't know how I forgot him since he is a given. I'd put him at #8 until further notice.

[ashbury]

Im beginning to think that Gibson wont be any better than a 4 or maybe an ok 3.

 

Even pre-injury, his minor league seasons hadn't profiled him as a can't-miss front of the rotation starter. For that, you kind of want to see him a little young for his league level and still dominating - he didn't do it. Putting up an ERA in the high 4's at AAA at age 23 isn't bad at all, and suggests a productive major league career; but that's what might be meant by "a 4 or maybe an ok 3".

[cmathewson]

This "consistency" contention is totally unfounded, insipid and rather absurd.

 

In Gibson's last 10 starts, he has had 4 games with ZERO runs scored (w/ a near no-hitter), his last 3 starts have been 1, 2 or 3 runs scored- all Quality Starts and then the 3 clinkers evenly sprinkled in the mix. During this 10 game run, his ERA is 2.89, his WHIP is 1.13, K/9 is 7.44, OBA is .228. Look back to last year's SP call-ups from Rochester, no one is close to these numbers. For that matter, no one is close to those numbers on the major league club.

 

This. Yet Len III is reporting that Albers is next in line. I doubt Gibson sees the majors this year. They don't seem to value him much.

[darin617]

Please don't add players to a list that have not signed. When he signs you can add him to your list.

[cmathewson]

I don't know how I forgot him since he is a given. I'd put him at #8 until further notice.

 

Really? I saw him pitch in the Super Regional (on TV). A wrapper who topped out at 90 and sat in the upper 80s. Not much movement. Based on that, I might slot him in at #12 among starting pitching prospects in the system. That puts him in the mid 20s overall, assuming he signs of course.

[cmb0252]

Please don't add players to a list that have not signed. When he signs you can add him to your list.

 

Why? Everyone knows Stewart is going to sign?