Solutions for the Twins’ Slumping Sophomores

[Cody Christie]

In 2023, the Twins saw a historic rookie class outperform expectations by a significant margin. Many of these now-sophomores are struggling in 2024, though, so how can Minnesota get them back on track?

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins have had some outstanding rookies throughout their history. However, the Class of 2023 is arguably their best group ever, based on their overall performance and impact on the team. Minnesota hoped those players would be essential parts during the current season, but that hasn’t come to fruition. What needs to happen for these players to return to impacting the big-league team for the better?

Edouard Julien, IF
2023 Recap: Julien burst onto the stage during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, with Team Canada, so it seemed like a matter of time before the Twins called him up. In 109 games, he posted a 132 OPS+, with 16 doubles and 16 home runs. He finished with the fifth-most walks ever among Twins rookies, and only Colorado’s Nolan Jones had a higher OBP among rookies with a minimum of 350 plate appearances. Some evaluators were critical of his defense at second base, but he made great strides, especially in the second half. 

2024 Struggles: Julien posted an .830 OPS in April, with five doubles and seven home runs. However, May hasn’t been kind to him, with an OPS hovering around .500. He has been limited to one extra-base hit in 75 plate appearances, and hasn’t hit a home run since his two-homer game back on Apr. 25. The Twins have dropped Julien down in the batting order, but he might need something else to wake up his bat. 

Solution: Julien might best serve the Twins with a reset at Triple-A, especially with Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee returning from injury. 

Matt Wallner, OF
2023 Recap: Wallner entered last season as the Twins organization's reigning Minor League Player of the Year. He mashed at Triple-A with a .927 OPS, and it got to the point where it seemed silly for him to still be with the Saints. Minnesota called him up for good in the middle of July, and he ended the season with impressive power totals. In 76 games, he hit .249/.370/.507, with 11 doubles and 14 home runs. From the team’s viewpoint, it seemed he had surpassed other former first-round picks like Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff.

2024 Struggles: Wallner began the year on the Twins’ Opening Day roster, but went 2-for-25 (.080 BA) with 17 strikeouts. The team was forced to demote him to Triple-A, where he has an OPS below .630 despite playing in an offensive-friendly environment. There have been flashes of his powerful swing from his rookie season, but he’s lacked consistency. Batters with Wallner’s offensive profile are prone to slumps, so he must prove his 2023 season was not a fluke.

Solution: Other outfielders have surpassed him on the organizational depth chart. He needs to rediscover his swing to be a big-league option. 

Louie Varland, RHP
2023 Recap: The Twins needed Varland to serve multiple roles during the 2023 campaign. He began the year as a starter and posted a 5.30 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP in 10 games. Opponents combined for a .848 OPS against him, as he allowed more than one home run per game (14 homers). Minnesota moved him to the bullpen for the stretch run, and he was electric. In 12 innings, he allowed two earned runs (both solo homers) with 17 strikeouts and one walk. It created a tough decision for the team about what role he should serve in 2024. 

2024 Struggles: Varland was scheduled to begin the year at Triple-A, but Anthony DeSclafani’s season-ending injury changed those plans. He began the year as the team’s fifth starter, but flopped. In four starts (16 2/3 innings), he allowed 17 earned runs, including six home runs, which isn’t sustainable at the big-league level. The Twins demoted him to Triple-A, where he has a 4.41 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP. Those totals are a little deceiving, because the Twins are treating his starts like spring training games wherein he works on specific pitches or locations. 

Solution: The Saints continue to use Varland as a starter, but it's getting close to time for him to shift back to the bullpen.

The Twins are finding ways to win despite the poor performances of their sophomores. Cleveland and Kansas City have built a lead atop the AL Central standings. To get back in the division race, production from all parts of the 40-man roster will be required. Minnesota needs these players not only for 2024, but for years to come.

---

Which player is most critical to the team’s second-half success? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

View full article

[Patzky]

We have more sopho-mores. Let's see em.

[Karbo]

When Lewis is ready I can see Julian going down to AAA unless he suddenly gets hot here. If that happens, I would work him at 1B there. Then when Lee is ready he can slide into 2B. A platoon of Julian and Miranda at 1B looks like the way to go next year.

[roger]

Julien's defense improved over the year and is now acceptable.  His problem is unlike Arraez, who fouls off close pitch after close pitch until he either hits one or gets a walk, Julien stands there and watches close pitches get called strike three before walking back to the dugout.  Until he begins doing something other than watching, pitchers are gonna continue to strike him out.  If he can change, he will likely become a solid big league second baseman.  If he doesn't, he may have a short career.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

First of all, I’m a very big Royce Lewis fan.  I think that he’s going to be one of the Twins’ best players going forward.  However, since all of the other “sophomore” players have had some struggles this year, it would at least seem possible that he will as well.  I hope he comes back and hits like he did in the first game of the season (Wow!  What an OPS!), but he could also come back and struggle.  Right now, there are too many people just assuming that he will be back and acting like an MVP candidate.  I really hope that happens, but I think it is foolish to just assume that it will all work out perfectly.  

[BH67]

52 minutes ago, roger said:

Julien's defense improved over the year and is now acceptable.  His problem is unlike Arraez, who fouls off close pitch after close pitch until he either hits one or gets a walk, Julien stands there and watches close pitches get called strike three before walking back to the dugout.  Until he begins doing something other than watching, pitchers are gonna continue to strike him out.  If he can change, he will likely become a solid big league second baseman.  If he doesn't, he may have a short career.

Julien's improved defense is indicative of someone who wants to become a regular Major League Baseball player. The others mentioned here seem to fighting through their struggles, too. And "sophomores" still lack sufficient experience at the big league level when facing elite players who are now familiar with their strengths and weaknesses.

I'm delighted that the Twins have quite a few young talents for which such concern is being raised. Beats not having any young talent at all.

[Craig Arko]

Wait a year?

[chpettit19]

Varland is going to keep getting chances to be a starter until multiple other guys pass him in the pecking order. The Twins aren't getting through the rest of the year with just 5 starters. Has Festa passed Varland? Maybe, but he's not on the 40-man so it's not a for sure thing he'd get the call when a starter is needed. Is anyone else even close to passing Varland? They won't move him to the pen until the end of the year or until he's 9th or 10th in the rotation depth chart. Right now he's 6th or 7th.

[Linus]

I think people got way over their skis on these guys. MLB is really hard - other teams find your weaknesses and exploit them ruthlessly. That’s why TKs mantra of you don’t know what you have until they get 1000-1500 at bats. Neither Wallner or Julien will be as good as their second half last year. Chances are neither is as bad as they look right now. We will see where they end up and if that level of production is worth their mediocre fielding profiles. I am not confident that Varland has the secondary offerings to be a starter in the bigs but am confident he can be a useful bullpen piece. 

[weitz41]

As a whole there is a huge number of sophomores struggling. Take a look at Corbin Carrol's numbers. I wonder if last year, with the rule changes, if the rookies had an advantage that they no longer have. Most of the big-name rookies this year are struggling.  If I had to guess, the veterans have caught up and are now making the rookies and sophomores take their lumps.

[LambchoP]

I think when Lewis comes back Julien should go down for a reset at AAA and try to find a solution for the strikeouts. Castro and Farmer can hold down 2nd base until either Lee is ready or Julien figures it out. I also think it's time to accept Varland is not a starter and try to use him as another high leverage bullpen piece like late last year. Duran, Alcala and Varland would give us 3 guys in the pen throwing 100mph.

[MGM4706]

Bring up Lee and send Julien down. His strikeouts are almost Sano-like!! Plus his defense HAS NOT improved much despite Morneau trying to convince people it has. Maybe instead of 2' Ieft and right it is 3' feet left and right. And he has dropped about 5 throws from catchers on throw out attempts. Some would have been outs. Send him down.