Behind Enemy Lines: Previewing the 2024 Cleveland Guardians

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins are looking to repeat as American League Central champions in 2024, but if they are to do so, they’ll again need to fend off the Cleveland Guardians. After finishing third in 2023, the rival is looking to take back the top.

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

This could be one of the most interesting seasons in recent memory for Cleveland--but it's not clear whether or not that will be a good thing.

2023 Record: 76-86 (77-85 Pythagorean)
2024 PECOTA: 84-78

Key Losses: Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, Zach Plesac, Noah Syndergaard, Daniel Norris
Key Additions: Austin Hedges, Ben Lively, Carlos Carrasco

The Big Storyline
This offseason was largely an uneventful one for the Cleveland Guardians. As a team that doesn’t spend much money, they have stayed true to that narrative. Of their $6.75 million total outlay, $4 million was given to Hedges behind the plate, and $2 million will go to Carrasco, who made the Opening Day roster as a non-roster spring invitee. The biggest turnover took place in the dugout, as Terry Francona stepped down as manager, and recently retired catcher Stephen Vogt took over.

It will be fascinating to see how the AL Central shakes out from a managerial tendency perspective. The Twins' Rocco Baldelli is the elder statesman of the group, while the Tigers' A.J. Hinch has the most total experience. Vogt is brand new, and Royals skipper Matt Quartraro is entering year two.

Cleveland is certainly hoping that Vogt can make immediate connections with their youthful roster. The starting rotation has a chance to be entirely homegrown, and plenty of the position players will be early in their careers, as well. At 39 years old, Vogt can rely heavily upon veterans like José Ramírez (31) and Hedges (31) to help him impart principles on the field.

Why They Will Be a Threat
As been the case for a decade, pitching should lead the list of strengths for the Guardians. Shane Bieber has been a Cy Young-caliber pitcher when healthy, and if he can remain on the mound this season, then he’ll be looking to resemble the pitcher he was in 2022. Beyond Bieber, Tanner Bibee and Triston McKenzie both provide upside in the rotation. The group is deep, as Logan Allen and Gavin Williams are solid options on their own, while Joey Cantillo could factor in at some point as well.

The lineup is largely unchanged from where it was a season ago, but Kyle Manzardo should be unleashed after being acquired in trade last year. (Alas, he'll start in the minors, but that doesn't foreclose the possibility that he'll make a huge contribution.) Over the years, the outfield has been a problem, and the group could be in a similar spot this year. Steven Kwan is a hit machine, but Ramon Laureano is an underwhelming option, and the team waived misfire extension recipient Myles Straw. (Unsurprisingly, no one claimed him.) Chase DeLauter is still on the rise, but shouldn’t be a consideration for a few months to start the year.

Production from Ramírez is almost a guarantee; he's one of the best players in the sport. However, he can’t be expected to do everything. Signed to an extension through 2028, he’s not going anywhere, but he’ll need the youth around him to step up and produce as expected.

Why They Won’t Be a Threat
With a lack of spending to supplement the roster, Cleveland is putting almost all of their eggs in the basket of youth. Manzardo will need to produce at first base alongside Josh Naylor. Bo Naylor played just 67 games as a rookie last season, and the combination of Gabriel Arias and Brayan Rocchio did not get off to a solid start.

This lineup has been lackluster for years, and the outfield talent hasn’t been adequately addressed. Unless a handful of the young players on the dirt are going to be immediate contributors at a very high level, their pitching talent will be wasted, even if they stay healthy enough to pitch as well as they hope.

How the season starts for Cleveland will largely determine their trajectory. Bieber could be traded before he hits free agency at year's end, and if they find themselves out of contention early, then that becomes a certainty. The Guardians have a few things going for them, but are not a well-constructed sum of all parts.

2024 Prediction: 75-87 (3rd in AL Central)

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[LambchoP]

I think it will be the Tigers we really need to look out for this year. All teams have improved except Cleveland and Chicago though....

[Karbo]

IMO they finish in3rd with 75 wins.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think it’s a little weird that PECOTA thinks that last year’s 76 win team is going to become an 84 win team with little to no changes in personnel.  Granted, they will likely have pretty solid starting pitching, but that lineup is pretty hapless as a group.  They aren’t exactly me and 8 guys I found on the street, but they pretty much are Jose Ramirez, Austin Hedges and 7 guys found on the street.  

[chpettit19]

The central is almost entirely about who's young guys step up and establish themselves. Everyone but Chicago is in pretty close to the same boat as they're all graduating prospects at the same time and it'll come down to which ones can adapt and establish themselves.

Cleveland should be assumed to have the arms until they don't. They've earned that assumption with the way they've churned out arms. Health is a different story for them, though. Only concern with their pitching is if it can stay healthy. Their offense will largely come down to what Rocchio can do early, and how soon Manzardo and Delauter debut, and what they can do. Another key will be whether Andres Gimenez can bounce back to his 2022 production or if he's more of the 2023 version.

They were the team set to take over this division after 2022 as they had a nice young core hoping to establish itself backed by a top end pitching staff. Pitching got hurt and the young core took steps backwards in 2023. We'll see if any of the holdover youngsters bounce back and if any of their new ones can step in. I have them around .500 this year. Winning between 79 and 83 games.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I concur, they finish with more than 75 wins. 79 or 80, with some luck maybe more. Good chance their pitching is good. Winning the AL Central in 2024 is no gimmee, and the Twins chose to fall back closer to the pack instead of widening the gap.

[bean5302]

I'm not bullish on the Guardians this year. I think their pitching staff is already fading.
Bieber has lost his velocity over the past couple of years and he's no longer an ace IMHO.
Bibee could be good this year.
McKenzie & Allen looks like back end rotation.
Carrasco is a cheap veteran Cleveland can hope will keep the wheels on the bus.
I think the Guardians finish 4th in the division with the 4th best rotation and with 95+ losses.

[sweetmusicviola16]

My only real question on the Tribe is, how did Austin Hedges turn his 2023 season into $4,000,000? I can  naturally breathe as well. 

[Karbo]

3 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think it’s a little weird that PECOTA thinks that last year’s 76 win team is going to become an 84 win team with little to no changes in personnel.  Granted, they will likely have pretty solid starting pitching, but that lineup is pretty hapless as a group.  They aren’t exactly me and 8 guys I found on the street, but they pretty much are Jose Ramirez, Austin Hedges and 7 guys found on the street.  

I agree. Another big difference is losing Francona, who IMO is one of the best managers in the modern age.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Losing Francona is a big loss for Cleveland.  He alone is worth 4-5 wins a year. I say the Guardians win around 77-80 games and are in a dogfight with KC for 3rd in the division. Detroit wins 82-86 games and presses the Twins all year. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Losing Francona is a big loss for Cleveland.  He alone is worth 4-5 wins a year. I say the Guardians win around 77-80 games and are in a dogfight with KC for 3rd in the division. Detroit wins 82-86 games and presses the Twins all year. 

Terry Francona, a guy who doesn’t swing a bat or throw a ball, worth the same as Gerrit Cole, Sonny Gray, or Luis Robert?

[mikelink45]

Boring - Cleveland is the land of disappointment. No they will not spend money, no they will not hit, no they will not keep their stud pitchers.  Thank you Cleveland, at least you have the rock and roll hall of fame. 

[twinzcynic]

Cleveland has an actual pitching pipeline and their rotation is way better than ours if you take off the twins colored glasses. Beiber is healthy, Mckenzie is healthy compared to last year and is only a year removed from being dominant, Bibee-Allen-Williams will likely only get better.

If you throw in full-season Bo Naylor, along with Josh Naylor/J-Ram/Giminez, and if they get anything from Manzardo they will likely overtake us.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, twinzcynic said:

Cleveland has an actual pitching pipeline and their rotation is way better than ours if you take off the twins colored glasses. Beiber is healthy, Mckenzie is healthy compared to last year and is only a year removed from being dominant, Bibee-Allen-Williams will likely only get better.

If you throw in full-season Bo Naylor, along with Josh Naylor/J-Ram/Giminez, and if they get anything from Manzardo they will likely overtake us.

FGDC. Starting Rotation expected WAR 2024
Twins = 13.9
Guardians = 11.4
There's no doubt the Guardians have developed pitching in a dramatically superior to Falvey's front office, but the Twins have gone out and bought pitching with trades and dollars.

Twins pitcher vs. Guardians pitcher head to head, top 6
4.1 vs. 3.3 - Lopez vs. Bieber
2.8 vs. 2.3 - Ryan vs. McKenzie
2.1 vs. 2.1 - Ober vs. Bibee
2.0 vs. 1.5 - Paddack vs. Allen
1.5 vs. 1.2 - Varland vs. Williams (IL)
0.9 vs. 0.6 - Desclafani (IL) vs. Carrasco

From a projection standpoint, the Guardians don't have a single rotation slot advantage over the Twins. I wasn't impressed with Cleveland's pitching before last year, either. When you look at Cleveland's rotation:

1. Bieber a29 - Once elite Cy Young potential pitcher losing velocity and strikeouts with it. Could rebound this year, but unlikely to return to Cy Young form.
2. McKenzie a26 - Low 90s fastball, finally got his control in check at age 24, but lost most of last season due to injury. His K rate declined with adding control. Great 4 seamer, everything else pretty average to below average. Similar to Joe Ryan, except less control and less K's.
3. Biebee a25 - Great slider, good curve, and his other pitches played very well off them with results far ahead of his actual stuff. xFIP was 1.24 points higher than ERA. Once the scouting reports catch up, profiles as a mid/back end rotation arm IMHO.
4. Allen a25 - Very poor fastball. Lacks velocity, lacks horizonal movement. The changeup is basically a straight ball, and it'll be easy for MLB hitters to adapt. I don't think he'll fare well as a starter long term at the MLB level.
5. Williams a24 - He could be really good. Great velocity, great extension, good movement on his pitches, but he's struggled a bit on his control. If he's able to make some adjustments, he could be a front line starter. Currently on the IL with elbow soreness, though apparently it was just inflammation.
6. Carrasco a37 - He's an innings eater for Cleveland taking up slack for injuries throughout the year. He had a resurgent 2022, but he was absolutely crushed last year. He's at the very twilight of his solid MLB career losing velocity and movement.