Behind Enemy Lines: Previewing the 2024 Cleveland Guardians

IMO they finish in3rd with 75 wins.

I think it’s a little weird that PECOTA thinks that last year’s 76 win team is going to become an 84 win team with little to no changes in personnel.  Granted, they will likely have pretty solid starting pitching, but that lineup is pretty hapless as a group.  They aren’t exactly me and 8 guys I found on the street, but they pretty much are Jose Ramirez, Austin Hedges and 7 guys found on the street.  

I'm not bullish on the Guardians this year. I think their pitching staff is already fading.
Bieber has lost his velocity over the past couple of years and he's no longer an ace IMHO.
Bibee could be good this year.
McKenzie & Allen looks like back end rotation.
Carrasco is a cheap veteran Cleveland can hope will keep the wheels on the bus.
I think the Guardians finish 4th in the division with the 4th best rotation and with 95+ losses.

3 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think it’s a little weird that PECOTA thinks that last year’s 76 win team is going to become an 84 win team with little to no changes in personnel.  Granted, they will likely have pretty solid starting pitching, but that lineup is pretty hapless as a group.  They aren’t exactly me and 8 guys I found on the street, but they pretty much are Jose Ramirez, Austin Hedges and 7 guys found on the street.  

I agree. Another big difference is losing Francona, who IMO is one of the best managers in the modern age.

Losing Francona is a big loss for Cleveland.  He alone is worth 4-5 wins a year. I say the Guardians win around 77-80 games and are in a dogfight with KC for 3rd in the division. Detroit wins 82-86 games and presses the Twins all year. 

3 hours ago, twinzcynic said:

Cleveland has an actual pitching pipeline and their rotation is way better than ours if you take off the twins colored glasses. Beiber is healthy, Mckenzie is healthy compared to last year and is only a year removed from being dominant, Bibee-Allen-Williams will likely only get better.

If you throw in full-season Bo Naylor, along with Josh Naylor/J-Ram/Giminez, and if they get anything from Manzardo they will likely overtake us.

FGDC. Starting Rotation expected WAR 2024
Twins = 13.9
Guardians = 11.4
There's no doubt the Guardians have developed pitching in a dramatically superior to Falvey's front office, but the Twins have gone out and bought pitching with trades and dollars.

Twins pitcher vs. Guardians pitcher head to head, top 6
4.1 vs. 3.3 - Lopez vs. Bieber
2.8 vs. 2.3 - Ryan vs. McKenzie
2.1 vs. 2.1 - Ober vs. Bibee
2.0 vs. 1.5 - Paddack vs. Allen
1.5 vs. 1.2 - Varland vs. Williams (IL)
0.9 vs. 0.6 - Desclafani (IL) vs. Carrasco

From a projection standpoint, the Guardians don't have a single rotation slot advantage over the Twins. I wasn't impressed with Cleveland's pitching before last year, either. When you look at Cleveland's rotation:

1. Bieber a29 - Once elite Cy Young potential pitcher losing velocity and strikeouts with it. Could rebound this year, but unlikely to return to Cy Young form.
2. McKenzie a26 - Low 90s fastball, finally got his control in check at age 24, but lost most of last season due to injury. His K rate declined with adding control. Great 4 seamer, everything else pretty average to below average. Similar to Joe Ryan, except less control and less K's.
3. Biebee a25 - Great slider, good curve, and his other pitches played very well off them with results far ahead of his actual stuff. xFIP was 1.24 points higher than ERA. Once the scouting reports catch up, profiles as a mid/back end rotation arm IMHO.
4. Allen a25 - Very poor fastball. Lacks velocity, lacks horizonal movement. The changeup is basically a straight ball, and it'll be easy for MLB hitters to adapt. I don't think he'll fare well as a starter long term at the MLB level.
5. Williams a24 - He could be really good. Great velocity, great extension, good movement on his pitches, but he's struggled a bit on his control. If he's able to make some adjustments, he could be a front line starter. Currently on the IL with elbow soreness, though apparently it was just inflammation.
6. Carrasco a37 - He's an innings eater for Cleveland taking up slack for injuries throughout the year. He had a resurgent 2022, but he was absolutely crushed last year. He's at the very twilight of his solid MLB career losing velocity and movement.