The Table Setter, Feb. 5, 2024: A Near Finished Product

[jorgenswest]

Perhaps we better get back to the topic.

Jay Jackson has had a fascinating career. He drafter in the 9th round in 2008. By 2009 he had advanced to AAA in the Cubs organization at 20 years old. We talk about how fast Brooks Lee advanced to AAA. He was the 8th pick. Jay Jackson was picked in the 9th round (pick 281). Of all players selected and signed at 281, Jay Jackson is second in career WAR (6.9 behind Tony Gonsolin). After his first full season Baseball America had him ranked in their top 100 (98). I am not sure there is another 9th rounder that can make that claim.

He has been with more teams than I want to count so I will stick to organizations.

Cubs, Marlins, Pirates, Brewers, Padres, Hiroshima, Brewers again, Chiba Lotte, Reds, Giants, Braves, Blue Jays, Twins

Wow! This guy must love to play baseball. Imagine the stories he has to tell.

Let’s hope this is his best stop in the majors.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Witt's deal also doesn't buy out any free agent years, unless Witt wants it to.

If Witt is as good as the Royals hope he is, he'll get to walk and cash in an even bigger payday. If he's not, this deal will become an albatross.

Edit: Looks like the Royals bought ONE free agent year. He would have been a free agent in 2028, now he can opt out in 2029 and every year after. That young man did well for himself. And I'm sure the Royals are happy to have the cost control.

I'm not sure why you think that deal will be an albatross for the Royals. If the contract runs its course, Witt Jr. will only be 34 years old. He is an exceptional athlete. Kansas City has plans to move into a new stadium downtown in the future. The Royals are trying to turn things around and Witt Jr. is about as much fun to watch as any young position player in the game. Yes, it is a good deal for Witt Jr. but I believe the deal is more important to the franchise than it is to the player in this case. 

[nicksaviking]

16 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm not sure why you think that deal will be an albatross for the Royals. If the contract runs its course, Witt Jr. will only be 34 years old. He is an exceptional athlete. Kansas City has plans to move into a new stadium downtown in the future. The Royals are trying to turn things around and Witt Jr. is about as much fun to watch as any young position player in the game. Yes, it is a good deal for Witt Jr. but I believe the deal is more important to the franchise than it is to the player in this case. 

I mean, either he'll be really, really good, or he won't be. Come 2029, it seems hard to envision a scenario where he'll be good enough to be worth paying 35M per year but not good enough to elect free agency.

I suppose there's a real fine line there somewhere.

[IndianaTwin]

I guess I'm not understanding the need to search for a RH batting outfielder. I mean, yes, if you look at the roster, Buxton is the only pure RH hitter in the outfield listing, but the infield can easily be all RH if they want to play platoon, and we know the C will be as well. 

With only 13 position players, you need a lot of switch hitters to create an entire platoon lineup. Ain't gonna happen. And given the preponderance of right-handed pitchers, if you're going to err, err on the side of having too many LH batters.

Facing a lefty, all you need to do is put Farmer at 2B and the switch-hitting Castro in one of the corners, and you've got seven righties: Jeffers/Vazquez (c), Santana (1b), Farmer (2b), Correa (ss), Lewis (3b), Buxton (cf) and the switch-hitting Castro (lf/rf). That leaves two from Kepler, Wallner, Kirilloff (or even Julien) to have the other corner outfield spot and DH. And shucks, if it's Vazquez's day to catch, you could even use Jeffers as the DH and have eight righties. 

(To anticipate the question, what about Buxton getting hurt? Well, Castro plays CF against lefties, so you might have three LH batters in the lineup, rather than just two. But if's that big of a deal and Martin is pounding the ball, he's also an option to bring up.) 

[stringer bell]

6 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I guess I'm not understanding the need to search for a RH batting outfielder. I mean, yes, if you look at the roster, Buxton is the only pure RH hitter in the outfield listing, but the infield can easily be all RH if they want to play platoon, and we know the C will be as well. 

With only 13 position players, you need a lot of switch hitters to create an entire platoon lineup. Ain't gonna happen. And given the preponderance of right-handed pitchers, if you're going to err, err on the side of having too many LH batters.

Facing a lefty, all you need to do is put Farmer at 2B and the switch-hitting Castro in one of the corners, and you've got seven righties: Jeffers/Vazquez (c), Santana (1b), Farmer (2b), Correa (ss), Lewis (3b), Buxton (cf) and the switch-hitting Castro (lf/rf). That leaves two from Kepler, Wallner, Kirilloff (or even Julien) to have the other corner outfield spot and DH. And shucks, if it's Vazquez's day to catch, you could even use Jeffers as the DH and have eight righties. 

(To anticipate the question, what about Buxton getting hurt? Well, Castro plays CF against lefties, so you might have three LH batters in the lineup, rather than just two. But if's that big of a deal and Martin is pounding the ball, he's also an option to bring up.) 

The reason it is kind of a big deal is that the team has struggled hitting left handed pitching since at least 2020. There are "regulars" at seven positions and the catchers will split time regardless of who is pitching. Of the left handed hitting "regulars", all showed pronounced platoon splits and last year, so did Willi Castro. Plugging in Farmer and Santana helps things, but Wallner, Kirilloff and Julien all were pretty bad versus lefties last year. Kepler was better, but his lifetime OPS vs. lefties is .141 worse than against right handers. It would be better balance to add one more right handed bat in the outfield. Going forward, it's not a disaster to go with the projected starting lineups, but they remain far better against right handers. 

[Major League Ready]

13 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I guess I'm not understanding the need to search for a RH batting outfielder. I mean, yes, if you look at the roster, Buxton is the only pure RH hitter in the outfield listing, but the infield can easily be all RH if they want to play platoon, and we know the C will be as well. 

With only 13 position players, you need a lot of switch hitters to create an entire platoon lineup. Ain't gonna happen. And given the preponderance of right-handed pitchers, if you're going to err, err on the side of having too many LH batters.

Facing a lefty, all you need to do is put Farmer at 2B and the switch-hitting Castro in one of the corners, and you've got seven righties: Jeffers/Vazquez (c), Santana (1b), Farmer (2b), Correa (ss), Lewis (3b), Buxton (cf) and the switch-hitting Castro (lf/rf). That leaves two from Kepler, Wallner, Kirilloff (or even Julien) to have the other corner outfield spot and DH. And shucks, if it's Vazquez's day to catch, you could even use Jeffers as the DH and have eight righties. 

(To anticipate the question, what about Buxton getting hurt? Well, Castro plays CF against lefties, so you might have three LH batters in the lineup, rather than just two. But if's that big of a deal and Martin is pounding the ball, he's also an option to bring up.) 

Castro can hit RH but that does not make him a suitable to go against LHP.  His career wRC+ is 91 vs LHP.  Last year it was only 82.  He was far better (121) from the left side.  A RH outfielder would take ABs from Wallner or Kirilloff who has a career 77 wRC+ and Wallner has been far worse.  Somone like Jorge would be a huge improvement to the lineup when replacing Kirilloff or Wallner.

[FilthyMogwai]

8 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'm curious why you assume the offseason is done?

That's the question I had also. 

[FilthyMogwai]

7 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

 

Other than losing Gray, this lineup is substantially superior to what we began with in 2023.  And way more fun to watch. And if Ober, Varland, and Paddack progress as we think they can, the starting staff will be improved overall even with DeSclafani.

Most importantly, we have not traded away our controllable, cheap young talent - whether in the bigs already or on the way. We should be favored to win the division in ‘24 with an even brighter future ahead for several years. 

You and the Twins appear to be banking on a lot of improvement to the younger players. That's a dicey proposition. Some will, some won't. Fortunately, they have enough to sift through. Last year at this time, Miranda looked like a future producer.

But I like the idea of supporting the young talent you do have with good free agent pickups - look at Texas last year (sans DeGrom which seemed silly to me given the likelihood of injury). 

 

[Major League Ready]

30 minutes ago, FilthyMogwai said:

You and the Twins appear to be banking on a lot of improvement to the younger players. That's a dicey proposition. Some will, some won't. Fortunately, they have enough to sift through. Last year at this time, Miranda looked like a future producer.

But I like the idea of supporting the young talent you do have with good free agent pickups - look at Texas last year (sans DeGrom which seemed silly to me given the likelihood of injury). 

 

IDK if Texas was banking on it but the biggest improvement in their team was the addition or improvement of 5 prearb position players.   

[DocBauer]

OK, a lot going on here!

1}Farmer is at least slightly overpaid for his role, IMO. But for a quality veteran who plays solid defense with a decent bat...better against LHP which has been a team issue for years now...I don't think $6M really handicaps the team. He's probably done after this season and replaced with a younger, less expensive option, but he could fill a nice role in 2024 for the team, as he did in 2023. Personally, I think Castro is good to excellent in the INF. And I bet he continues to play some there this year. But he's also playing the OF. Guy can't do everything, which is why I think Farmer is important, and is only moved if someone has an injury and is in desperation mode for a veteran SS.

2}Santana isn't someone who's going to affect the Twins in a very large way this year. I'd be ecstatic if he could be as good as he was in 2023, or better, by somehow turning the clock back. I just don't know that I see that happening. But he can be valuable as a veteran influence, and a counterpart to Kirilloff's bat. I can see him as a really nice PH option. But the LH side of his switch hitting has really gone down hill. But as a 1yr $5M role player, he can help. But I hope the Twins don't hang with him all season similar to Gallo if his game suddenly disappears. Too many interesting options on the farm that may be ready in a couple months.

3}DeSclafani doesn't excite me. I hoped for and wanted better. Three years ago he was really good for the Giants. Playoff game starter worthy even as a #3. But he barely even threw in 2022 and was shut down with a bad elbow after 1 good month, 1 decent month in 2023. He might be OK as the #5 arm, allowing the luxury of using Varland as depth. And I'm sure the FO was trying really hard for another Odorizzi, Gray, or Lopez kind of deal, to no avail. With no insult directed to Disco himself, I really wanted better. I just don't see him suddenly being the guy he was in 2021 going in to his age 34 season.

However, I do mostly like our rotation. Lopez is a stud. The Ryan we saw last season for about 2/3 of it, was All Star caliber. Experience and changes in his repertoire and sequencing really paid off. Then he hurt his groin and tried to pitch threw it, throwing off the last 1/3 of his season. If he had be the same pitcher but for a whole season...more or less...he's excellent. Ober was just as good before getting a little tired at the end of the season after tossing over 160 innings. And I still don't think we've seen the best of him yet. Paddack pretty much replaces Maeda. The stuff is there with solid velocity, an improved breaking ball, and an excellent change. If his innings can be "stretched out" for a full season, I like our first 4 a lot. Even losing Gray, it's not like the rotation just fell apart to a collection of journeymen.

4}Jackson is another arm for the middle innings if his 2023 is for real. Topa could have a huge affect on deepening the pen. Imagine if Staumont actually makes a full recovery from his surgery. Even if he needs a little longer to ramp up and build up strength to begin the season, he's ANOTHER potential difference maker. Right now: Duran, Stewart, Jax, Thielbar, Funderburk, and Topa are written in ink. That's 6 of 8. And now you have Jackson, Staumont, Alcala, and a slew of converted starters and recent signees for those last 2 spots and depth. I like this pen, right now, much better than the one that started 2023. (really wish Moran was healthy though). 

5}I like the offense better than the one that began last season. I know Wallner, Julien, Lewis, and Kirilloff aren't finished products yet. But they are very talented. I can accept a few bumps in the road because it happens to everyone. Factor in a healthy Correa, even a semi-healthy Buxton, a seemingly reinvigorated Kepler, and some nice bench options...not to mention some very interesting guys that should begin the year in St Paul...the offense should be good, and probably improved.

But are the Twins done yet?

I don't think so. I firmly believe another RH hitting OF is on his way, probably via FA. Even with a pending TV deal, I'm not sure Soler is a fit due to $ and years. But I think they could afford him. Duvall is small downgrade offensively, but better defensively, and has really close to even splits in his career, making him a solid choice who can even play a little CF here and there. Meanwhile, Taylor would bring better defense and more speed. I don't know that he'd hit 20 HR again, even if he got as many AB as last year, but with a healthier back, he might steal more bases. Tough call, but I'm expecting one of them, probably Taylor.

After that, they might be done. I'm sure they won't stop trying to find a good pitching match, and move on from DeSclafini, or slide him to the pen initially. But can they make it happen? I sense a really strong reluctance to move any of the top 5 or 6 prospects in the system. And I don't think they want to move Kepler either. Is there a good match out there for a team that would like, and could use, 3 other top 20 prospects in place of a quality arm that is getting expensive, or will be, or will be gone, when the team is ready to actually compete? 

I just have this gut feeling the Twins FO is going to pull off something still that we just don't see coming and will be surprised when it happen. Or maybe...I'm just filled with too much hope.

But no, they aren't quite done yet.

[Fat Calvin]

5 hours ago, arby58 said:

That is what is known as a false dilemma or false dichotomy. 

Please explain.

[Doctor Wu]

I'm not so sure that we are "substantially" better this year compared to last year. Many positives on this team, but a LOT of uncertain aspects too. Many of us are banking on a healthy team, but you have to assume that there will be some injuries. My main concern remains the starting pitching. If we end up having career years from the likes of Lopez, Gray, Paddack and some of the younger kids, hey we will be sitting pretty, but I'm not that confident that will happen. And there are also health concerns with Buxton, Kiriloff, and Correa. And what happens if one of our catchers is injured? Hey, I'm an optimist, but I'm also realistic enough to know that this current team isn't really a World Series contender. I just hope the realist in me is very wrong.