Dylan Cease thread

[Cory Engelhardt]

So, I know it's not probably likely, being an in-division trade and all. But I wanted to throw out a few reasons why Dylan Cease is a solid target for Minnesota, and also is similar to pitchers they've acquired in the past. 

1) Dan Hayes specifically mentioned him as a target that the Twins have talked to Chicago about

2) He is right up the Twins alley, in terms of a few reasons. A) He has an extra year of control, and B) He is (arguably) coming off a down year compared to previous seasons.

3) He very much fits the bill as a "high impact" starter.

 

I KNOW he is on the White Sox. Any deal for a pitcher of that quality is going to cost a lot in terms of prospects. It (sort of) is magnified being in division, and I'm sure most teams wouldn't want to trade away anyone that COULD become a star for a team in their own division.

 

All of that said, because of what is listed above, I figured I'd start a thread on what YOU think it would cost the Twins to acquire Cease. Payroll wise he fits for this year and next, as he is set to make about 8 this year and I'd imagine only 11 or 12 next year in his last year of arbitration. He just turned 28 in December, so IF the Twins were to acquire him, he would be with us for 2 years and wouldn't turn 30 until after the 2025 season is complete. He certainly could be a good option for an extension at some point, but that wouldn't have to happen NOW.

 

Thoughts? What would it cost, in terms of players, to bring Dylan Cease to Minnesota?

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'll start with mine.

I think there can be a few avenues for a trade here...

1) A trade based around Brooks Lee. I'd imagine it wouldn't be a 1 for 1 (on either side, the Twins like to get a prospect or two back in these kinds of deals) but this to me is a deal that could work for both sides.

2) A deal with 3-4 good prospects. I know the White Sox will ask for a LOT for him from any team, but if the Twins came back with something like Emmanuel Rodriguez, Cory Lewis, Marco Raya and Tanner Schobel, to me that FEELS like a light return, but it would be a pretty large injection of talent into the White Sox system.

3) Edourd Julien. I don't know that I see Minnesota trading him, but I'm sure he would be someone that Chicago would ask about. Royce too (although I see no chance Royce is actually on the table. Or Jenkins)

 

 

[nicksaviking]

I like him better than Burnes who only has one year of control, and Bieber who's strikeout numbers have fallen off of cliff.

But he really has only had that one elite year of production, and I'm guessing the White Sox will be demanding to be paid for what he did in 2022, not 2023 or 2021 and prior. I've seen him pitch and he looks pretty dominant usually, and while his BB% isn't off the charts, the fact that every year he either leads the league in total walks or wild pitches makes me think he could snap and completely come apart at any moment:

[jorgenswest]

Bob Nightengale reported that the Mariners are involved with Miller or Woo as the centerpiece. I don’t see how the Twins can compete with that offer. Bailey Ober is close but they Ober and Cease.

I don’t think the division is the barrier to getting this deal done. The Twins don’t have the young controllable pitching talent to compete with the Mariners. If the Mariners drop out then maybe a package of Varland and Rodriguez would work,

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, jorgenswest said:

Bob Nightengale reported that the Mariners are involved with Miller or Woo as the centerpiece. I don’t see how the Twins can compete with that offer. Bailey Ober is close but they Ober and Cease.

I don’t think the division is the barrier to getting this deal done. The Twins don’t have the young controllable pitching talent to compete with the Mariners. If the Mariners drop out then maybe a package of Varland and Rodriguez would work,

I could see that. Varland being a centerpiece, maybe with Festa or Raya added, and another pitcher at the lower ranks COULD be enticing.

They have talked though, the two teams. I'm curious if there is a fit.

[nicksaviking]

14 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Bob Nightengale reported that the Mariners are involved with Miller or Woo as the centerpiece. I don’t see how the Twins can compete with that offer. Bailey Ober is close but they Ober and Cease.

I don’t think the division is the barrier to getting this deal done. The Twins don’t have the young controllable pitching talent to compete with the Mariners. If the Mariners drop out then maybe a package of Varland and Rodriguez would work,

Wow. I'd rather trade for any of those three guys by themselves over Cease who only has two years of control. In fact I'd expect Chicago to have to kick in significant pieces BACK to Seattle or the Twins. Ober was better than Cease last year, and Miller and Woo were about the same, but that was their rookie year. Presumably they'll only get better and better.

I guess my evaluation is quite different than league expectations. I'd do Varland or Festa  and Rodriguez, but if the White Sox rebuffed the Mariners for Miller and Woo, that doesn't seem strong enough.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, nicksaviking said:

Wow. OK I'm completely out then. I'd rather trade for any of those three guys by themselves over Cease who only has two years of control. In fact I'd expect Chicago to have to kick in significant pieces BACK to Seattle or the Twins. Ober was better than Cease last year, and Miller and Woo were about the same, but that was their rookie year. Presumably they'll only get better and better.

I guess my evaluation is quite different than league expectations.

Yeah, I don't see Ober going anywhere either, at least inter division. I also wouldn't move Woo for Cease if I am Seattle. I could MAYBE be talked into Miller, but I don't see it being a 1 for 1 there.

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Yeah, I don't see Ober going anywhere either, at least inter division. I also wouldn't move Woo for Cease if I am Seattle. I could MAYBE be talked into Miller, but I don't see it being a 1 for 1 there.

I took my stance back, I'm not out if it's Varland and Rodriguez. I'm out if it's Ober. 

I'm willing to use Ober or Ryan to upgrade to Jesus Luzardo, but not Cease. 50/50 at best Cease is even an upgrade to those two. I'd roll the dice with the lower prospects, but he doesn't have the track record of success of the Marlins pitchers nor the long term upside of the Mariners pitchers.

[Cory Engelhardt]

9 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I took my stance back, I'm not out if it's Varland and Rodriguez. I'm out if it's Ober. 

I'm willing to use Ober or Ryan to upgrade to Jesus Luzardo, but not Cease. 50/50 at best Cease is even an upgrade to those two. I'd roll the dice with the lower prospects, but he doesn't have the track record of success of the Marlins pitchers nor the long term upside of the Mariners pitchers.

I still think Cease has the capability of being a high end #2 or even an ace if you get him back to his 2022 form. Even last year his fip wasn't bad, and his strikeout rate is still elite. IF the Twins get him he clearly slots ahead of both Ryan and Ober in the rotation.

[tony&rodney]

The contract (Cease) would work but I'm afraid that is about it. Cease is really good when he is good but a little erratic at times for someone expected to be an ace. The Twins are backed into a corner to some extent if Lee is protected and he seems to be. I'm not sure the Twins can afford to lose any more offense or position prospects from the top of their system. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The contract (Cease) would work but I'm afraid that is about it. Cease is really good when he is good but a little erratic at times for someone expected to be an ace. The Twins are backed into a corner to some extent if Lee is protected and he seems to be. I'm not sure the Twins can afford to lose any more offense or position prospects from the top of their system. 

That could be. I just found it interesting that Hayes connected Minnesota to him specifically. I also trust that Maki and company can get him going right. The dumpster fire that was the 2023 White Sox would be good for any player to get away from right?

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

The dumpster fire that was the 2023 White Sox would be good for any player to get away from right?

True. I think Tim Anderson is due for a turn for the better despite his free swinging ways. Maybe Milwaukee picks him up.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

True. I think Tim Anderson is due for a turn for the better despite his free swinging ways. Maybe Milwaukee picks him up.

I can see that. I'd imagine a LOT of players who are on other teams could have rebounds from 2023. Whatever happened in Chicago last year, it was really bad, even for White Sox standards.

[Jocko87]

23 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I can see that. I'd imagine a LOT of players who are on other teams could have rebounds from 2023. Whatever happened in Chicago last year, it was really bad, even for White Sox standards.

I wouldn't touch any of last year's Pale Hosers for anything, including Cease. Something that toxic is too risky to bring into your locker room. It's so hard to know who were the bad apples it's better to stay away. Even the good apples are tainted.

[nicksaviking]

49 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The contract (Cease) would work but I'm afraid that is about it. Cease is really good when he is good but a little erratic at times for someone expected to be an ace. The Twins are backed into a corner to some extent if Lee is protected and he seems to be. I'm not sure the Twins can afford to lose any more offense or position prospects from the top of their system. 

I disagree with this part. If there's one thing the Twins do well, it's finding talent from the periphery prospects. An Arraez, Jeffers, Miranda, Steer or Julien seem to pop up out of the blue just about every year. At this point, I don't think anyone should be surprised if Severino, Camargo or Prato end up leaving Martin or Lee in the dust. Don't kill me Martin and Lee fans, they'll probably still be good too.

As so, I'm more than comfortable trading the offensive prospects.

[Cory Engelhardt]

29 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I wouldn't touch any of last year's Pale Hosers for anything, including Cease. Something that toxic is too risky to bring into your locker room. It's so hard to know who were the bad apples it's better to stay away. Even the good apples are tainted.

See, I'm on the other side. Cease and even Kopech would both (in my opinion) be great targets to get a fresh start. They have talent for sure. 

[big dog]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

the fact that every year he either leads the league in total walks or wild pitches makes me think he could snap and completely come apart at any moment:

 

Somehow I'm not sold on the idea of trading Lee for two years of that. I'm not opposed to trading him, but I'd need a better marketing brochure from the trade partner.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 hours ago, big dog said:

Somehow I'm not sold on the idea of trading Lee for two years of that. I'm not opposed to trading him, but I'd need a better marketing brochure from the trade partner.

Does his catching partner have anything to do with the number of passed balls? Asking because I have no idea how that stuff is tracked.

And yeah, I more meant the initial ask is certainly to include Lee. Whenever Cease is traded (to the Twins or elsewhere) it'll be interesting to compare the returns.

[Cory Engelhardt]

https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/news/what-would-it-cost-the-twins-to-trade-for-dylan-cease#:~:text=Dylan Cease is clearly on,Corbin Burnes from the Brewers.

 

The offer here is Lee, Raya or Prielipp, and the comp round A pick they got for Sonny Gray signing with St. Louis.

 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/news/what-would-it-cost-the-twins-to-trade-for-dylan-cease#:~:text=Dylan Cease is clearly on,Corbin Burnes from the Brewers.

 

The offer here is Lee, Raya or Prielipp, and the comp round A pick they got for Sonny Gray signing with St. Louis.

 

Well I mean I'd do Prielipp and the comp pick without thinking twice.

But I'm not even sure Cease is better than Ober and Ryan. Looking at his career, his one excellent season is looking like an outlier.

[Cory Engelhardt]

13 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Well I mean I'd do Prielipp and the comp pick without thinking twice.

But I'm not even sure Cease is better than Ober and Ryan. Looking at his career, his one excellent season is looking like an outlier.

I mean, his best year is certainly way more than any other pitcher the Twins have has gotten to.

I also have to think, if the Twins get him, they believe he is a tweak away to getting the most out of him, right?

I keep bringing this up because there FEELS like a lot of smoke around him being moved all offseason. I guess we'll see if it actually happens or not.

[cmoss84]

Max and Varland...

[jorgenswest]

6 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Max and Varland...

Possibly a fair offer but how does one year of Kepler fit on a White Sox team that has been selling?

[cmoss84]

Just now, jorgenswest said:

Possibly a fair offer but how does one year of Kepler fit on a White Sox team that has been selling?

Kepler is just a bridge to get to their next OFs. They would definitely have to like Varland quite a bit...but you never know. They could also trade Kepler to get some additional assets at the deadline. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

10 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Kepler is just a bridge to get to their next OFs. They would definitely have to like Varland quite a bit...but you never know. They could also trade Kepler to get some additional assets at the deadline. 

Kepler is a lottery ticket if a selling team trades for him. Hope he blows up in the first half and you can sell incredibly high at the deadline.

[nicksaviking]

11 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Kepler is just a bridge to get to their next OFs. They would definitely have to like Varland quite a bit...but you never know. They could also trade Kepler to get some additional assets at the deadline. 

We have seen this before, but I still don't think it makes a ton of sense for the White Sox. I'd have to think they'd want prospects now instead of gambling that Kepler and his not-insubstantial salary can be traded for better later.

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Kepler is a lottery ticket if a selling team trades for him. Hope he blows up in the first half and you can sell incredibly high at the deadline.

But if you weren't a Twins fan, but an objective observer who hasn't thought twice about Max Kepler in the past decade, would you look at this and think it more likely the 31-year-old will explode or implode?

Even if he's just average, you'd probably be holding less value at the deadline.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Just now, nicksaviking said:

But if you weren't a Twins fan, but an objective observer who hasn't thought twice about Max Kepler in the past decade, would you look at this and think it more likely the 31-year-old will explode or implode?

Even if he's just average, you'd probably be holding less value at the deadline.

Oh, for sure. It's a lottery ticket that likely winds up in the trash...

[cmoss84]

45 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

We have seen this before, but I still don't think it makes a ton of sense for the White Sox. I'd have to think they'd want prospects now instead of gambling that Kepler and his not-insubstantial salary can be traded for better later.

This is why Varland would be involved...so essentially they would have 2 lotto tickets and a potential SP in their rotation.

[nicksaviking]

9 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

This is why Varland would be involved...so essentially they would have 2 lotto tickets and a potential SP in their rotation.

But if their goal is to get multiple prospects, why settle for one now and only hope to get another midseason? Why not just go to a team that will provide them the security of getting multiple prospects now and avoid the very real chance of getting less later?