The Minnesota Twins' Five Biggest First-Round Busts

[Chris Schad]

Y! SPORTS

 

For every Joe Mauer, there's five of these guys that don't pan out. Anybody else up for consideration?

[jorgenswest]

I suppose a good list. However, there is a huge difference between the top few picks and the 21st pick.

 

In the 42 years from 1965-2007, there are only 6 guys that have over 10 career WAR. I guess the rest are some level of bust but it is typical at pick 21.

 

If Buxton doesn't make it, that will be a bust. If one of Wimmers, Michael, Berrios or Gibson make it, you are probably ahead of the game.

[DaveW]

The twins have won 7 of 8 and they have an opp to get a real nice player tomorrow....can we have one week where we just don't post depressing stuff?

[greengoblinrulz]

1991s McCarty failure keeps everyone from remembering that MNs 2nd 1st rounder (27th) was 1B Scott Stahoviak!!! OUCH

 

Not signing 1993 first rounder Jason Varitek (21st...one pick after Torii) and missing on supplemental picks 33/38 Marc Barcelo/Kelcey Mucker make that a frustrating first round.

1996....Travis Lee wasnt a bad pick, just bad front office work

1998 pick of Ryan Mills was bad as 22 of first 28 made the majors

First round picks AFTER Moses in 03...Aardsma, Billingsley, Barton, CQuentin, Adam Jones

 

Last 10yrs, I think MN has done well with their first round picks....just not much after that

[Brock Beauchamp]

A note about posting links. Please do not preface the thread title with "Article". That is an automatically generated notice for Twins Daily articles on the front page.

[a-wan]

BJ Garbe and his night vision issues. Can imagine the scouts and the front office during that conversation.

 

"He can't what?"

"See, sir. He can't see very well."

[Chris Schad]

Hey Brock, note taken. I wasn't sure about it so I'll make sure to follow in the future. My fault.

[Chris Schad]

The twins have won 7 of 8 and they have an opp to get a real nice player tomorrow....can we have one week where we just don't post depressing stuff?

 

I know, this was actually an assignment from Yahoo itself, so I followed what I normally do and posted it on here. Twins are looking well, I hope it can continue.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hey Brock, note taken. I wasn't sure about it so I'll make sure to follow in the future. My fault.

 

Oh no, it's a common mistake. No worries, just letting you know the rules.

[Otto von Ballpark]

No way Moses should be on this list. He was a bust, sure, but he was picked in the latter half of the first round. Those guys wash out all the time. The Twins have picked high enough, often enough that there are plenty of top picks with high expectations to choose from.

 

How about Bryan Oelkers, picked just ahead of Dwight Gooden at 3rd overall in 1982? How about Tim Belcher, picked first overall in 1983 but did not sign (one of only two players to hold that distinction)? Or Willie Banks, 3rd overall pick?

[beckmt]

Alex Johnson should be on the list.

[bird]

Ancient history and not instructive in any way.

[Seth Stohs]

There's nothing wrong with writing about that side of the draft with the draft fast approaching. The draft is completely a crap shoot in many ways. If it wasn't, Mark Prior would still be dominating hitters. I enjoy lists like this. That Oelkers pick sure stands out. I'd say Moses and Garbe were both busts. I'd probably put David McCarty at the top of mine. Adam Johnson never really got a shot.

[TheLeviathan]

Ancient history and not instructive in any way.

 

Thank you scrooge. Sometimes it's just interesting to talk the many strange ways baseball is both positive and exciting but depressing and bizarre.

[jorgenswest]

A bust doesn't necessarily make it a bad pick.so e of the busts referred to above we're not bad picks.

 

Pitchers carry more risk. High schoolers carry more risk and promise more reward. Drafting a high school pitcher is the ultimate of risk. Kohl Stewart is a good draft pick in the Twins spot this year. He may be a bust. He may be an allstar. In either case the decision to risk selecting him will have been a good one. Top of the rotation pitchers are the rarest commodity.

[Monkeypaws]

1991s McCarty failure keeps everyone from remembering that MNs 2nd 1st rounder (27th) was 1B Scott Stahoviak!!! OUCH

 

Not signing 1993 first rounder Jason Varitek (21st...one pick after Torii) and missing on supplemental picks 33/38 Marc Barcelo/Kelcey Mucker make that a frustrating first round.

1996....Travis Lee wasnt a bad pick, just bad front office work

1998 pick of Ryan Mills was bad as 22 of first 28 made the majors

First round picks AFTER Moses in 03...Aardsma, Billingsley, Barton, CQuentin, Adam Jones

 

Last 10yrs, I think MN has done well with their first round picks....just not much after that

 

Mills seemed like a real safe pick at the time, son of a pitching coach. great college career, lefty, good size. Sometimes good picks don't pan out.

[nicksaviking]

No way Moses should be on this list. He was a bust, sure, but he was picked in the latter half of the first round. Those guys wash out all the time. The Twins have picked high enough, often enough that there are plenty of top picks with high expectations to choose from.

 

I agree. I think expectations were high for Moses and Span after picking in the top 10 seven of the previous 8 years. Moses probably should be in the same bust camp as Carlos Gutierrez and Kyle Waldrop considering their draft positions.

 

 

 

How about Bryan Oelkers, picked just ahead of Dwight Gooden at 3rd overall in 1982? How about Tim Belcher, picked first overall in 1983 but did not sign (one of only two players to hold that distinction)? Or Willie Banks, 3rd overall pick?

 

Willie was a tough pick, I'm all for drafting HS arms but it's hard to argue Banks backfired. There was a ton of talent in that 1987 draft.

 

No one has mentioned the Twins drafted Tim Belcher 1st overall in 1983. He was a damn good pitcher. Too bad he did sign with the Twins and there wasn't any sort of compensation back in those days.

 

Edit: Ha, I never knew this but looking at the draft history, the Twins also drafted Billy Swift with the 1st pick of the 2nd round in 1983. He also was a pretty solid pitcher. But did not sign. What a bad year.

 

Looking back, the Twins actually were quite awful drafting in the 1st round until recently. Chuck Knoblauch was the first 1st round pick that signed and played for the Twins to put up more than a 5.5 WAR for his career.

[mikecgrimes]

Mills seemed like a real safe pick at the time, son of a pitching coach. great college career, lefty, good size. Sometimes good picks don't pan out.

 

Mills was on TV a few days after the draft and gave up about 12 runs. I hate college pitchers in the first round.

[ThePuck]

I'd say Moses and Garbe were both busts.

 

Probably expected some sort of miracle with Moses...

[ThePuck]

Ancient history and not instructive in any way.

 

and yet, you still took time to complain about it anyway...

[Riverbrian]

I don't think posting busts and talking about them is negative at all. I think it shines a light on how difficult it is.

 

I like to see lists like this and for better understanding and peer comparison I'd like to see lists from every team.

 

All the teams miss and miss a lot.

 

This isnt a slam on anyone but I think Major League Baseball front offices are more informed and less confident and the majority of us are less informed and more confident.

[Chris Schad]

Mills seemed like a real safe pick at the time, son of a pitching coach. great college career, lefty, good size. Sometimes good picks don't pan out.

 

I took a long look at Mills heading into the article, but the fact that Ryan botched the Lee pick because he didn't know the rule book was pretty dumbfounding. Mills should have been on the list possibly to replace Matt Moses, but both are worthy of being on here. Think of Mills as the top honorable mention.

[LaBombo]

This isnt a slam on anyone but I think Major League Baseball front offices are more informed and less confident and the majority of us are less informed and more confident.

That trend varies in proportion to how long a player has been in baseball. Front offices know a ton more about almost any given draft prospect than most fans do, not just because of how knowledgeable scouts are, but because of the massive resources they have to see so many first-hand or consult trusted experts about others.

 

But after a player has multiple seasons in the minors, the gap between front offices and fans narrows a bit, and continues to do so as a player makes it to the majors and sustains a career there. By the time a guy is a 30 year old free agent with 6 or 7 MLB seasons, the gap in FO and fan knowledge is a fraction of what it was on the day that player was drafted. How much that gap still is by that point will always be a controversy.

 

At any rate, totally agree about the randomness of the MLB amateur draft. It seems to have more high-round busts and low-round successes than the other three major sports' drafts combined. Hoping the Twins are on their collective game for this year's.

[TheLeviathan]

Knock yourself out, my friend. Enjoy your fascinating and depressing discussion.

 

i am fascinated, thank you. Your comments say a lot about how eager you are to cry "negativity".

 

The busts and flops are the ying to draft day steals yang. It's part of the unique intrigue of sports and everyone should be able to enjoy that discourse without your nonsense.

[glunn]

and yet, you still took time to complain about it anyway...

 

Moderator warning -- Birdwatcher has been banned and others are risking bans if they continue this bickering.