Trading Places: A History of Minnesota Twins Challenge Trades

[Greggory Masterson]

The MLB offseason requires creativity for mid-market teams who want to remain competitive. The Twins have a recent history of swapping big leaguers for big leaguers with other teams, but has that worked? Let’s turn to history for the answer.

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA Today

No team wins every trade, but competitive teams need to win more than they lose. It's pretty straightforward to pick winners and losers when a team trades MLB contributors from a position of strength to bring in other MLB contributors for a position of need. These are often called challenge trades, and the Twins have made them a habit under this front office's tenure.

I challenge you (no pun intended) to think of an offseason trade since 2016 that sent away an MLB player for the Twins. 

If that trade wasn't Gio Urshela for Alejandro Hidalgo, you just thought of a challenge trade. The only time that the Twins have truly sold—i.e., traded an MLB player for a prospect—was that second Urshela trade. Below, I've listed every trade that could be considered an offseason challenge trade (or sell) under Derek Falvey. 

Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. A player's performance is not included if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the original trade. This analysis doesn't have future performance, either. This information is accurate as of November 15th, 2023. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the complete picture isn't available.

I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred. 

See the Yankees trade below for an example of why comparing statistics isn't ideal. Although the Twins lost the trade by WAR, it cleared the salary owed to Josh Donaldson and gave them the room to sign Carlos Correa to his first Minnesota contract.

Without further ado, my subjective order is from best to worst.

3/13/22: Minnesota acquires Gio Urshela (551 PA, 119 OPS+, 3.1 bWAR), Gary Sanchez (471 PA, 88 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR) from New York (AL) for Josh Donaldson (666 PA, 90 OPS+, 2.3 bWAR), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (892 PA, 81 OPS+, 2.9 bWAR), Ben Rortvedt* (79 PA, 28 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), -1.0 bWAR for Minnesota.

There's much to unpack in this trade, primarily orchestrated to clear up salary room from 2022 to 2024 and rid themselves of Donaldson. Donaldson was a solid contributor for New York in 2022 but wore out his welcome, and the Yankees waived him before the end of 2023. Kiner-Falefa also lost his starting shortstop role, handling a super-utility role when his contract ended after 2023. Rortvedt has played minimally in New York due to injury. Urshela and Sanchez spent a year in Minnesota, but neither returned for 2023. Although both Urshela and Sanchez had contracts that offset some of Donaldson's, the Twins are no longer paying either, and that excess money helped to bring in Correa before 2022 and 2023.

1/20/23: Minnesota acquires Pablo López* (194 IP, 117 ERA+, 3.3 bWAR), Jose Salas* (has not reached Minnesota), Byron Churio* (has not reached Minnesota) from Miami for Luis Arraez* (617 PA, 133 OPS+, 4.9 bWAR), -1.6 bWAR for Minnesota.

The Twins tabbed López as the Opening Day starter after the trade that sent the reigning batting champion Arraez to Miami. After four great starts and a four-year, $73 million extension, López finished seventh in the AL Cy Young. Churio and Salas were promising prospects many did not anticipate being included in the deal, though it's questionable whether either will make it to the big leagues. Arraez won his second consecutive batting title and placed eighth in the 2023 NL MVP voting. He's under team control in Miami through 2025.

2/9/20: Minnesota acquires Kenta Maeda (277.1 IP, 106 ERA+, 3.0 bWAR), Jair Camargo* (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles (NL) for Brusdar Graterol* (173.2 IP, 158 ERA+, 3.5 bWAR), Luke Raley (72 PA, 43 OPS+, -0.5 bWAR), +0.0 bWAR for Minnesota.

Maeda finished second in the 2020 Cy Young voting during the shortened season but struggled in 2021, had Tommy John surgery, and re-established himself in 2023, though not without continued injury concerns. At the time of the trade, the Twins knew he may have elbow issues. Graterol has been a solid force in LA's bullpen when healthy. Camargo has not reached the majors, while the Twins traded Raley to Tampa. This trade also sent a 2nd round pick to LA.

4/7/22: Minnesota acquires Chris Paddack* (27.1 IP, 95 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR), Emilio Pagán (132.1 IP, 112 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR), Brayan Medina (has not reached Minnesota) from San Diego for Taylor Rogers (41.1 IP, 87 ERA+, -0.2 bWAR), Brent Rooker (7 PA, -100 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), +1.1 bWAR for Minnesota.

This infamous trade sent away the Twins' top reliever, Rogers, who struggled in San Diego. Rooker, a depth outfielder, only registered seven plate appearances for the Padres but wound up a 2023 All-Star with Oakland. In return, the team received Paddack, who had known elbow issues, pitched well in five starts, then underwent Tommy John. He returned as a bullpen piece down the stretch in 2023 and will likely open 2024 in the starting rotation. Pagán largely struggled through 2022 as a high-leverage arm, but he posted a sub-3.00 ERA and led the bullpen in innings in 2023. Medina is currently in Rookie ball as a starter, and the Twins retained most of Rogers's salary.

3/12/22: Minnesota acquires Isiah Kiner-Falefa (did not reach Minnesota), Ronny Henriquez (11.2 IP, 173 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR) from Texas for Mitch Garver (559 PA, 121 OPS+, 2.5 bWAR), -2.7 bWAR for Minnesota.

Coming out of the lockout, Minnesota made a move that killed two birds with one stone: got a return for the off-injured Garver and filled a hole at shortstop. Garver has dealt with injuries in Texas but has still hit well, though relegated to mainly DH. Kiner-Falefa was a Twin for one day before getting traded again, and Henriquez threw a few innings in 2022, but the Twins released him after the 2023 season.

11/18/22: Minnesota acquires Alejandro Hidalgo (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles (AL) for Gio Urshela (130 PA, 84 OPS+, 0.2 bWAR), -0.2 bWAR for Minnesota.

Urshela became a fan-favorite and consistent performer in his year in Minnesota. However, he would have likely been non-tendered in arbitration to prevent a perceived logjam on the Minnesota infield. He played all around the infield and had been moderately productive for the Angels before a broken pelvis ended his season. Hidalgo is still 20 years old and a starter at High-A.

2/5/21: Minnesota acquires Shaun Anderson (8.2 IP, 47 ERA+, -0.5 bWAR) from San Francisco for LaMonte Wade Jr.* (1151 PA, 112 OPS+, 3.9 bWAR), -4.4 bWAR for Minnesota.

In retrospect, this was an unforced error. The Twins had two similar options for their fourth outfielder going into 2021—Wade and Jake Cave—and they elected to trade Wade, who, when healthy, has been a consistent presence in the Giants lineup. Cave struggled over his last two years in Minnesota, and Anderson, the AAAA lottery ticket they got for Wade, was out of the organization before the year ended.

Total WAR gained: -8.8 bWAR

Unfortunately, by WAR, the Twins have given up more than they've brought in in MLB-for-MLB trades. However, there's room for discussion. The team could say that they'd do the Donaldson, Arraez, and Graterol trades, even though they have not shown favorably by WAR, given the context of the trades. I said at the beginning that it's easy to see who wins and loses, but it's a little trickier to contextualize them.

What do you think? Do you trust the team to trade away big leaguers again in 2024?

View full article

[Blyleven2011]

Luke Raley was acquired by minnesota in the dozier trade with dodgers  , Luke Raley was traded back to dodgers along with graterol in the maeda trade ...

How Tampa acquired him ,  it was either by trade or the dodgers dfad him and Tampa claimed him  ....

Trading places can work out for each team , in trades , most teams trade for needs , some dump a player because of salary ...

Yes it's a challenge to get it right  , front office has done well in off season trades but has not done well at deadline trades ...

[Karbo]

I didn't see the Cruz or Berrios trades. I think those worked out OK.

[Greggory Masterson]

33 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I didn't see the Cruz or Berrios trades. I think those worked out OK.

Since those trades were selling off assets at the deadline, I analyzed them this summer here. I’ve divided them all up because they’ve made approximately 60 trades since 2016

[Eris]

Not sure about the why’s behind statistics but Fangraphs has Maeda at 5.2 WAR and Gaterol at 2.9 WAR since the trade. 

[mnfireman]

Total WAR gained: -8.8 bWAR

And if you go to FanGraphs its -2.5 fWAR....

 

[Greggory Masterson]

42 minutes ago, Eris said:

Not sure about the why’s behind statistics but Fangraphs has Maeda at 5.2 WAR and Gaterol at 2.9 WAR since the trade. 

 

30 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Total WAR gained: -8.8 bWAR

And if you go to FanGraphs its -2.5 fWAR....

 

My wifi is bad and BRef runs better on my computer!

in all seriousness, I don’t read too deeply into WAR (whoever’s it is) in conversations like this. If they’re within 10 WAR of even after 10 trades, it’s essentially a fair shake, in my opinion. I like it as one of many contextual factors 

Edited November 26, 2023 by Greggory Masterson
Wi-Fi, not wife, is bad. She’s great.

[Doctor Gast]

4 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Luke Raley was acquired by minnesota in the dozier trade with dodgers  , Luke Raley was traded back to dodgers along with graterol in the maeda trade ...

How Tampa acquired him ,  it was either by trade or the dodgers dfad him and Tampa claimed him  ....

Trading places can work out for each team , in trades , most teams trade for needs , some dump a player because of salary ...

Yes it's a challenge to get it right  , front office has done well in off season trades but has not done well at deadline trades ...

I really don't trust deadline trades especially for pitchers.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Greg. I really enjoyed your series on trades. I agree w/ you that trades can be hard to really evaluate, Taylor Rogers isn't a true closer where you can't trust him to close on consecutive days. But that's how SD used him. Rogers surprised me how well he pitched in that role to begin with but was not surprising that he burned out. Rogers would have done much better if he'd stayed w/ the Twins who knew how to use him. IMO there are other Twins that would have done better if they had remained a Twin.

But I plan to use your articles as a point of reference. Thanks again for your effort you put into it.

[mikelink45]

That was fun, but mostly meaningless.  Trades are done to accomplish something that often is not measured in WAR and that is why it is hard to judge these trades,  Does Julien replace Arraez?  Would Garver still be a big bat for us like he was for Texas this year?  Does Vasquez make him irrelevant?  I don't think so.

Does WAR matter in Graterol v Maeda - or could we ask if our BP would be better without that trade.

Losing Wade seems like a big deal because SF knew how to use him.  Would he have played if we kept him here?  

Too much to really consider.  But luckily no Brock for Ernie Broglio.  no Pedro Martinez for Shields, No Randy Johnson for a handful of prospects that never made it.  No Alexander for Smoltz.  No Maris for Don Larsen. 

And closer to home - no Span for Meyer.  No Santana for a who is it bundle.

Wait and see, but nothing outrageous in these trades. 

[PatPfund]

I trust them fairly well, though I fully trust that they will do what they want regardless of my trust!

[Blyleven2011]

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I really don't trust deadline trades especially for pitchers.

Concur  , they haven't got one deadline trade right yet , starting with Dyson ...

[Greggory Masterson]

2 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Concur  , they haven't got one deadline trade right yet , starting with Dyson ...

In their defense, the Romo trade was great and the Fulmer trade was fine. Then they had three nothing burgers (eg, Sandy León) and then the train wreck three: Mahle, López, Dyson