One move the Twins should (but won't) make in the Offseason

[Major League Ready]

20 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

In what reality does anyone want Byron Buxton on their club? That said, trying to get 2 quality players for Buxton is an exercise in futility…….similar to getting Ohtani to Lake Calhoun.

Mahle - Maeda - Gray - Gallo - Taylor - Solano - Polanco …….assuming we keep Farmer & Kepler, allows for a recoup of $60-$65M from current payroll.

New revenues of around $40M between ticket sales & concession net revenue. I honestly think we could offer $55M/year without it being at all restrictive on budget…..7 years to get him to at least consider.

For the sake of this conversation, let's just say this is a reasonable estimate.  If this is so, he would generate $75M for a half dozen different teams so why wouldn't they just outbid us?

[Cap'n Piranha]

47 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

In what reality does anyone want Byron Buxton on their club? That said, trying to get 2 quality players for Buxton is an exercise in futility…….similar to getting Ohtani to Lake Calhoun.

Mahle - Maeda - Gray - Gallo - Taylor - Solano - Polanco …….assuming we keep Farmer & Kepler, allows for a recoup of $60-$65M from current payroll.

New revenues of around $40M between ticket sales & concession net revenue. I honestly think we could offer $55M/year without it being at all restrictive on budget…..7 years to get him to at least consider.

7/$385M won’t get it done.  If you want Ohtani for “only” 7 years, you’ll have to give him around $425M, at minimum.  If you want Ohtani for “only” $55M/year, you’ll have to give him 10 years, at minimum.  It’s why I proposed the 3/$300M.  It keeps the contract “small”, while allowing Ohtani to chase a second $300M (or more) contract after 2026, while still only 32.

[Brandon]

Moves the Twins won’t make: 

1.  Resign Gray to 3 year 72 million 

2.  If not Gray then sign Kershaw to 1 year 25 million.  
 

Let’s get stupid shall we?  Let’s trade one of our top prospects say Lee to Pittsburgh for Bednar and a prospect.  This clears up the extra IF problem and makes our bullpen dominant the next 3 years.  This will bring back so many memories of the Matt Capps trade.  

[Cap'n Piranha]

28 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

For the sake of this conversation, let's just say this is a reasonable estimate.  If this is so, he would generate $75M for a half dozen different teams so why wouldn't they just outbid us?

He might not generate $75M for a half dozen teams, or at least not the half dozen who are expected to be the top competitors.  The Dodgers, for example, are already at 47k fans a game—you can’t get extra revenue other than price increases, which is a lot harder to do than to simply sell more tickets.

Also, the number from that poster was a combo of extra revenue, and payroll the Twins are about to jettison.  As I mentioned, the Twins could very easily clear $50M from this years payroll for next year, and $70M isn’t a super crazy number either.

That reality, more than anything else, is what I’m speaking to.  The Twins finally have something approaching a perfect storm for a mid-market team.  Plenty of good young talent not yet in arbitration (Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Ober, Jeffers, Duran), solid prospects still on the way (Martin, Lee, Festa, Rodriguez, Varland, SWR), and lots of cap space.  Say what you will about the Falvine Twins, but they have always spent to their budget.  As such, I see 3 courses of action they can take this offseason.

1–spend their space on middling veterans to build depth (think Gallo, Bundy, Vazquez).  This would be my least desired option, and unfortunately, is probably the most likely.

2–sign multiple pre-arb players to Kepler/Polanco style deals.  While this would help the future payroll, it would also eliminate the possibility of additional help now, which is why I’m also not a huge fan of this option.

3–attempt to sign star players to market value deals.  This is what I’ve argued for, in the most extreme way possible.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This will never happen but you did a pretty good job of convincing me it should.

[ewen21]

No, the Twins should not get Ohtani.  What he is doing is not sustainable and it would be highly risky to sign him or any other player to such a contract.  We'd be paying him for what he did in Anaheim, which is not realistic to expect beyond at best a couple of more years.  I know he's beloved on this page, but as impressive as he is, I do not think he would be a good signing for any team if he gets when we are hearing.

 

I am far more interested in raising our own starting pitching.  It would be nice to have cost controlled young arms for a change and it appears we finally have some of that.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

On 8/18/2023 at 1:21 PM, chpettit19 said:

Ohtani doesn't count as a pitcher so you're still able to carry 13 other arms. So, as far as the numbers go, you aren't carrying any fewer arms even with a 6 man starting staff. As for the money, the Twins already have Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack locked up. So we're already at 5 of 6 spots (including Ohtani). Varland or bringing back Maeda or Gray on a short deal is easily affordable. 

The challenge is the same as always...can you produce prospects to give yourself cheap talent? If you're willing to trust the offense to all your young guys, Ohtani, Buxton, and Correa you can absolutely afford Ohtani. The 2-way player rules make it so that roster management really isn't much of a problem at all as long as you can produce prospects that can contribute at the major league level.

Its a little more difficult than just that,  I think it is much more difficult to manage a 6 man pitching staff especially with paying for Ohtani.  You will be effectively paying for 2 elite players in 1 (50 mil -100 mil a year) - Then have 6 pitchers - and trying to keep them healthy.  If Ohtani is your ace,  you need to then be paying for another ace and regular 5 man pitching staff, and then have depth on top.  Instead of like the Twins needing 7-8 SP for depth for injuries ect,   you are looking at 9 or more.  Even in that scenario you are likely throwing out more subpar players into the rotation - then taxing the bullpen.  I believe Ohtani as much as lacking finding hitters, has been the primary issue for the angels not making the post season.   You have the money issue,  but then you throw in trying to build a pitching staff.   It looks better on paper than actual results.  Now as stated,  I do think a smaller market team could more easily fit Ohtani into the budget, avoid the luxury tax ect. The issue likely is he wants to stay on the west coast.   

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Its a little more difficult than just that,  I think it is much more difficult to manage a 6 man pitching staff especially with paying for Ohtani.  You will be effectively paying for 2 elite players in 1 (50 mil a year) - Then have 6 pitchers - and trying to keep them healthy.  If Ohatani is your ace,  you need to then be paying for another ace and regular 5 man pitching staff, and then have depth on top.  Instead of like the Twins needing 7-8 SP for depth for injuries ect,   you are looking at 9 or more.  Even in that scenario you are likely throwing out more subpar players into the rotation - then taxing the bullpen.  I believe Ohtani as much as lacking finding hitters, has been the primary issue for the angels not making the post season.   You have the money issue,  but then you throw in trying to build a pitching staff.   It looks better on paper than actual results.  

I don't have any idea why Ohtani changes the number of other pitchers you need. I mean every team goes into every season knowing they need 8-10 starters to get through the year, that doesn't change with Ohtani. If Ohtani goes down you just go to a 5 man rotation. If one of the other guys goes down you do what you already would've been doing and fill his spot with a AAA starter. The Twins already have their other "ace" in Lopez. They have Ryan, Ober, and Varland on pre-arb deals. They have Paddack. They have 5 other starters ready to go into next year. Then, like every other team, it's up to the minor leagues to provide the backfill. That's how it works for everybody. I don't see anywhere in there that explains why they "are likely throwing out more subar players into the rotation." The rest of their rotation literally isn't changing from what it's already set to be. You're still looking to fill 5 other rotation spots that you'd be looking to fill anyways. It's not like the Twins plans for filling those 5 other spots were to go out and pay a whole bunch of money to someone else. They're already building the rotation on the cheap. Having a 6 man rotation with Ohtani wouldn't change that.

The Angels are fighting for the "worst run organization in baseball" crown. Blaming their struggles on Ohtani feels awfully far fetched to me. The "money issue" is the only issue. You build the rest of the staff the exact same way you already would. You're not changing anything about how you'd build the rest of the staff. Going from 7-8 pitchers to 9 is completed by adding Ohtani. The money is obviously a concern for teams that choose not to spend money. But the rest of the staff is built the exact same way as it would've been before. So, it isn't more difficult than what I said. You need to be able to produce pitching prospects to backfill for any injuries, and to fill the rotation moving forward. But that isn't any different than what the situation was before adding Ohtani. Every team is always building with the idea of needing to produce in-house, cheap talent on a continuous basis. Adding the best player in the history of the sport doesn't change that. It just gives you the best player in the history of the sport.

[big dog]

On 8/17/2023 at 11:46 PM, MABB1959 said:

We have never even been able to dream with this team.  Buxton and Correa together should have been a dream come true but has turned into a nightmare.   

Well, a nightmare that is playing above .500 ball, anyway. I’ve seen nightmares. This is just really disappointing. 
To me, a Twins nightmare is expecting to challenge for a division title and finishing fourth or so. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 8/19/2023 at 2:42 PM, Cap'n Piranha said:

He might not generate $75M for a half dozen teams, or at least not the half dozen who are expected to be the top competitors.  The Dodgers, for example, are already at 47k fans a game—you can’t get extra revenue other than price increases, which is a lot harder to do than to simply sell more tickets.

Also, the number from that poster was a combo of extra revenue, and payroll the Twins are about to jettison.  As I mentioned, the Twins could very easily clear $50M from this years payroll for next year, and $70M isn’t a super crazy number either.

That reality, more than anything else, is what I’m speaking to.  The Twins finally have something approaching a perfect storm for a mid-market team.  Plenty of good young talent not yet in arbitration (Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Ober, Jeffers, Duran), solid prospects still on the way (Martin, Lee, Festa, Rodriguez, Varland, SWR), and lots of cap space.  Say what you will about the Falvine Twins, but they have always spent to their budget.  As such, I see 3 courses of action they can take this offseason.

1–spend their space on middling veterans to build depth (think Gallo, Bundy, Vazquez).  This would be my least desired option, and unfortunately, is probably the most likely.

2–sign multiple pre-arb players to Kepler/Polanco style deals.  While this would help the future payroll, it would also eliminate the possibility of additional help now, which is why I’m also not a huge fan of this option.

3–attempt to sign star players to market value deals.  This is what I’ve argued for, in the most extreme way possible.

CC can’t be moved and the other 3 IF spots are rock solid for years………..Lewis-CC-Julien/Lee-Kirilloff……….Solano/Farmer depth

2 Catchers through ‘25

Wallner - Unmovable Buxton - Kepler Martin/Rodriguez/maybe Lewis?/Castro

Don’t see room for star bats……..guys don’t hit better than Kirilloff - Julien - Lewis!!

Couple bullpen vets - YES!

Re-sign Maeda.

Early deals for Duran…….Jax……….Ryan……..consider Ober.

[Brandon]

I guess this is the Ohtani thread.   
 

I’ll try another one.  The Twins should sign David Robertson to an either a 1 year 10 million or 2 year 18 million contract to be a late inning reliever in the pen.  

[Cap'n Piranha]

On 8/20/2023 at 9:23 AM, ewen21 said:

No, the Twins should not get Ohtani.  What he is doing is not sustainable and it would be highly risky to sign him or any other player to such a contract.  We'd be paying him for what he did in Anaheim, which is not realistic to expect beyond at best a couple of more years.  I know he's beloved on this page, but as impressive as he is, I do not think he would be a good signing for any team if he gets when we are hearing.

 

I am far more interested in raising our own starting pitching.  It would be nice to have cost controlled young arms for a change and it appears we finally have some of that.

How does signing Ohtani interfere with the Twins trading for/drafting pitching prospects, and subsequently developing them into MLB-caliber arms?

[ewen21]

Let me respond to this first:

On 8/17/2023 at 12:31 PM, Cap'n Piranha said:

Go toe-to-toe with the big boys, and offer Ohtani an 8 year, $500M contract. 

 

I am sorry, but this is far too fiscally irresponsible.  How do the Minnesota Twins operate like this?  Forget any other question you want to ask me since this is your proposal.  I will answer your questions after you respond to this.  First, please explain how it is remotely viable for this team to pay a single player 40% of its payroll for the next eight years--specifically a player who both pitches and plays full time. I get that he is unique and currently he is awesome, but no way he maintains this level of play for more than a couple of years.  Historically, no one has ever done what he is doing right now.  

I get that a lot of people love Ohtani here, but he's not coming here for less money to not play on a west coast team.  

 

 

 

[ewen21]

Let me apologize for being a naysayer.  This was intended to be a fun thread and it was a great breakdown from Captain......

Perhaps I am becoming the curmudgeon I never wanted to be

[Twins33]

You may have jinxed him into a lesser contract which would put the Twins more in the mix, though I don’t think it’d ever happen either way.