We Owe Max Kepler and Emilio Pagan an Apology

[Fred]

2 hours ago, twinfan said:

Pitchers and hitters go through good and bad spells all the time. Kepler, however, has been very consistent in his overall stats every year- even though they aren't great. So has Gallo but his are awful except for the 20-25 times he will hit it out. Pagan is either very good or very not so good. You take what you can get since most relievers will blow 5-6 saves or holds a year. If the Twins have to rely on Keichel for the rest of the race, God help them. He'll win 3 or 4 (maybe) but lose 5 or 6 and won't beat a good hitting team. Injuries continue to haunt this team yet (and I probably shouldn't say this) Correa, of all people considering what happened in the off-season, has played almost every game. Maybe if Buxton was healthy at the break we could have traded him. Maybe they will do it in the off-season. We have 6 games left vs Cleveland and we had better win at least 4 but with the way this team hits I don't know if we can.

I'm pretty sure Buxton has a no-trade clause, so saying "if Buxton was healthy at the break we could have traded him." is just spitting upwind. He only leaves if he wants to. Now, how do they convince him to want to?

[Fred]

6 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

It is going to be an interesting day here when it is announced that Kepler and Pagan will be back in Twins uniforms in 2024...

Aw s**t, I was having a good morning until you had to come along with that thought.

[Fred]

1 hour ago, CRF said:

Not offering any apologies for them to be doing what they SHOULD have been doing all along. At least in Kepler's case, anyway. Pagan...I'm not so sure about. I think he'll revert to his usual self pretty soon. 

Zulgad has an interesting theory regarding Kepler. He believes that Kepler isn't thrilled to be a ballplayer, but he likes the money. So, he has no motivation to go all out until the money is threatened. He points out the Kepler really turned it on when the Twins brought up Wallner. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

15 minutes ago, Fred said:

Aw s**t, I was having a good morning until you had to come along with that thought.

I fully believe Kepler will be back next year, very little doubt.

Pagan pitching up to expectations could easily warrant him being back as well.  With him having played for the Twins, investing in a "known" product is easier than taking yet another flier on a B-C grade reliever.

[Dave Borton]

31 minutes ago, Fred said:

Zulgad has an interesting theory regarding Kepler. He believes that Kepler isn't thrilled to be a ballplayer, but he likes the money...

Not a Bulged (Zulgad auto-corrected) listener, but something is amiss. I saw a couple of times at Target Field this year when Kepler jogged to pick up a ball (one took a bad ricochet and one was down the line). "Sprint" didn't seem to be in his tool box.

[RpR]

39 minutes ago, Fred said:

Zulgad has an interesting theory regarding Kepler. He believes that Kepler isn't thrilled to be a ballplayer, but he likes the money. So, he has no motivation to go all out until the money is threatened. He points out the Kepler really turned it on when the Twins brought up Wallner. 

Zulgad is full of ejecta.

 

Max Kepler, the German Baseball Player Who Spurned Soccer for MLB Dreams

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2568511-max-kepler-the-german-baseball-player-who-spurned-soccer-for-mlb-dreams

The most middling players in Europe's top soccer leagues are guaranteed transformational wealth, supermodel girlfriends and unrivaled celebrity.

A sea of people stacked five deep around the entrance to a nightclub will part ways for one of its soccer stars to enter. Restaurant reservations will be honored—so long as a player doesn't show up unannounced. It's a utopia for most European men that few get to enjoy and nearly all envy.

And most find out if they've won this genetic lottery before their teenage years.

While the offer of a scholarship to a prepubescent seventh-grader makes the college football faithful gasp in this country, European professional clubs already have snagged soccer phenoms by that age to play in their youth academies. So coveted is the opportunity to be selected into the youth academy of a known professional club that children around Europe move great distances for the chance.

 

Max Kepler was fortunate to be one of the few. And one of the fewer who didn't even have to move. In his hometown of Berlin, he was a goalie for the youth academy of Hertha BSC, one of the storied clubs in Germany's famed Bundesliga.

Hertha BSC is known for graduating youth talent to top leagues across Europe. Kepler was thought to be so athletic he even played some attacking positions as a reserve. In his early teens, Kepler was a prodigy. Then, suddenly, he veered off the path.

 

If he lived in any number of other countries, the idea of abandoning soccer wouldn't inspire shock. Most would understand that a number of sports would suit someone as athletically gifted as Kepler.

But not in Europe. Especially not in Germany, where other athletic endeavors are barely given a passing glance. The move was as much a head-scratcher to his envious classmates as it was to his Polish-born father....

[Dave Borton]

Let's see. A ballplayer has 10 weeks of horrid ball followed by 8 wks of good ball and an apology is in order.

Nah.

[Fred]

6 minutes ago, RpR said:

Zulgad is full of ejecta.

 

Max Kepler, the German Baseball Player Who Spurned Soccer for MLB Dreams

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2568511-max-kepler-the-german-baseball-player-who-spurned-soccer-for-mlb-dreams

The most middling players in Europe's top soccer leagues are guaranteed transformational wealth, supermodel girlfriends and unrivaled celebrity.

A sea of people stacked five deep around the entrance to a nightclub will part ways for one of its soccer stars to enter. Restaurant reservations will be honored—so long as a player doesn't show up unannounced. It's a utopia for most European men that few get to enjoy and nearly all envy.

And most find out if they've won this genetic lottery before their teenage years.

While the offer of a scholarship to a prepubescent seventh-grader makes the college football faithful gasp in this country, European professional clubs already have snagged soccer phenoms by that age to play in their youth academies. So coveted is the opportunity to be selected into the youth academy of a known professional club that children around Europe move great distances for the chance.

 

Max Kepler was fortunate to be one of the few. And one of the fewer who didn't even have to move. In his hometown of Berlin, he was a goalie for the youth academy of Hertha BSC, one of the storied clubs in Germany's famed Bundesliga.

Hertha BSC is known for graduating youth talent to top leagues across Europe. Kepler was thought to be so athletic he even played some attacking positions as a reserve. In his early teens, Kepler was a prodigy. Then, suddenly, he veered off the path.

 

If he lived in any number of other countries, the idea of abandoning soccer wouldn't inspire shock. Most would understand that a number of sports would suit someone as athletically gifted as Kepler.

But not in Europe. Especially not in Germany, where other athletic endeavors are barely given a passing glance. The move was as much a head-scratcher to his envious classmates as it was to his Polish-born father....

So, compare the effort needed to play soccer against the effort needed to play RF (he has said he doesn't like playing CF), and look at his choice. Then ask yourself if it's possible that he isn't interested in putting out effort for his money.

[DocBauer]

An apology? No thank you.

Owed to us? Maybe.

Look, I became a huge follower and lover of Kepler the minute he was signed. What a great story! And when he reached MLB and you saw fluid movements and a smooth swing, you just knew he was going to be a future All Star. And I'm still waiting for that ballplayer to emerge. Loaded ball or not, I really thought 2019 was his breakout year. And then he slipped to a .760 OPS in 2020...but...it was still the second best of his career. So I still had some hope. And then 2021 and '22 happened, as well as the first half of '23, and I was ready to move on. (From both he AND Gallo). I am very pleased he's been performing at such a high level the past couple of months. And I hope like heck he keeps it up! I have some hope it will because the contact he's making the past couple of months is actually HARD and not little flares and soft grounders with the OCCASSIONAL long ball or XB hit. He does this the rest of the season, I'm going to believe in him and think the $10M option for 2024 is a worthwhile idea. 

I'm just not convinced yet...but hopeful.

When you've been as bad as Pagan has been, for as long as he's been, and after watching what he did to help torpedo the Twins season in 2022...though it certainly wasn't entirely his fault...it's just really hard to be forgiving, or believe in a sudden turn around for an over 30yo BP arm. But like Kepler, you can't dispute he's been really good for the past 2 months. And I want to be hopeful he will continue it for the rest of the season. (knocking on wood). But you'll forgive ME if I need more than 2 months vs nearly 5 years before I have belief.

So no, I'm not apologizing to either guy for believing they should be gone after a pair of really good months that I can only hope they can and will sustain. 

But I will absolutely give them an "at a boy".

 

[Brandon]

7 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

Kepler has amassed 1 WAR this year. He making 8.5m. He's been horrible. And he's blocking young players. 

TD is really on a roll. Cripes,  Hawk Harrelson would be embarrassed to be this much of a Homer.  

1 WAR is worth 8-10 million so he justified his pay and nothing more at this point.  He seems to have a little excess value if he finishes the season between 1.5-2.0 WAR.  But nothing to exciting.  

[insagt1]

anyone think remotely that Kepler would be leading the Twins in HR's in mid August? Not me for sure. Probably more likely to believe Correa would be leading or close to leading MLB in GIDP's.

Meanwhile Gallo is striking out now at 50% of official AB's. Thats just not acceptable no matter how it can be spun by the metrics. While the age old argument of 'a k is better than a DP' will rage on like the fires in Canada, Its irrefutable that a k will not accomplish much of anything good. It won't advance runners (unless batter swings at a wild pitch) and it won't give the 'd' a chance to make an error.  Since there are a ton more k's than DP's, I'll take my chances with the guy who hits the ball somewhere.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Fred said:

So, compare the effort needed to play soccer against the effort needed to play RF (he has said he doesn't like playing CF), and look at his choice. Then ask yourself if it's possible that he isn't interested in putting out effort for his money.

NO, such a silly rumor is illogical  unless the speaker of the rumor does not like the person he spreads the rumor about .

When did he say anything about center field, either way?

 

[Dr Katz]

The hitting coach owes the fans an apology for all the strikeouts by the batters this year, it's ridiculous! 

[JD-TWINS]

So, Kepler is a lock the rest of the way in RF.

Wallner is a lock in LF.

Julien/Farmer/Lewis/Jeffers/Vazquez/Kirilloff

Correa & Buxton are other fixtures.

That’s 10 guys…….who else sticks through August?

Solano - Taylor - Gallo

Castro has options and the other 3 don’t. Luplow has slim & none as a chance to stick. Timing on Buxton & Kirilloff is up in the air so Luplow & Castro stick until they are back.

Rocco, post game talk Saturday night, all about what a great guy Gallo is in the locker room and how his teammates think he’s great. He had a walk tonight & went 4 for 4 with two HR. Not getting released……….Castro’s back is bothering him. Can IL Solano or Castro to make room for Lewis……..he’s coming Monday - right?

I think they take their time with Buxton & Kirilloff getting back.

Gallo may end up on IL late this month just to get to September 1 roster expansion?????

Polanco was not mentioned above. He may not make the expanded roster of 15 guys that makes the team through September. Don’t know if they can afford to option Castro down and keep Polanco through August?

18 days to roster expansion.

When they go from 15 to 14 bats in playoffs (4 starters - 12 total pitchers), who gets cut??

I think Luplow & Castro may be on outside?

Currently, 16 bats in the mix when all are healthy. Choices to be made.

[Major League Ready]

16 hours ago, Fred said:

I'm pretty sure Buxton has a no-trade clause, so saying "if Buxton was healthy at the break we could have traded him." is just spitting upwind. He only leaves if he wants to. Now, how do they convince him to want to?

The better question is how do they convince another team to trade for him the way he is going now.  

[Major League Ready]

14 hours ago, Brandon said:

1 WAR is worth 8-10 million so he justified his pay and nothing more at this point.  He seems to have a little excess value if he finishes the season between 1.5-2.0 WAR.  But nothing to exciting.  

The average paid in free agency is roughly $9M per 1 WAR.  That does not reflect worth.  It reflects cost.  It's the average production per dollar spent which reflects the crapshoot that is free agency.  (See Carlos Correa)  We expected more.  Paying $10M/WAR is a recipe for failure especially for any team with similar revenue to the Twins.   Teams don't pay a 6 WAR player $60M/year.  They pay them $30M/year.  A high percentage of them fail making the average cost much higher than the signing team expected.  

[twinstalker]

And you really think Emilio is done Paganing us?  If this isn't remembered as the season Kepler was allowed to restore his trade value, I'm not sure what to think.

I'm not exactly sure when the Twins are allowed to trade again relative to when Kepler's option has to be picked up, but they better be working the back channel phones leading up to any deadlines.