Multiple Twins Putting Themselves in Gold Glove Conversation

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have strong defenders at multiple positions across the diamond, and some players have performed well up to this point in the season. So, which players are in the conversation for a Gold Glove?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA TODAY Sports

Defensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With Statcast tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. One metric the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) developed is the SABR Defensive Index (SDI).

According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." Since 2013, SDI has been used as part of the process for selecting Gold Glove winners. The rankings below are through games played on July 9, 2023. 

Pitcher (AL Ranking): Pablo Lopez 1.5 SDI (3rd), Sonny Gray 0.0 SDI (22nd), Joe Ryan -0.8 SDI (31st)
Lopez made one of the biggest jumps of any Twins player over the last month. He was the top-ranked Twins pitcher in the initial rankings but ranked 11th in the AL. Since the beginning of June, he has more than doubled his SDI total. Only Zack Greinke (3.7 SDI) and Jose Berrios (2.5 SDI) rank above Lopez. Gray stayed consistent over the last month and increased one spot in the rankings. Ryan is near the bottom of the rankings among qualified pitchers, with Lucas Giolito and Luis Castillo being the only player below him. Lopez had a tremendous month and has a chance to move up the rankings with another strong month. 

Catcher (AL Ranking): Christian Vazquez 3.2 SDI (5th), Ryan Jeffers 1.6 SDI (8th)
Minnesota has arguably the best defensive-catching duo in the American League. Vazquez has been known as a strong defender and ranks in the top five according to SDI, where he finished the 2022 campaign. Since joining the Twins, his framing has improved from the 55th percentile to the 79th percentile. Jeffers has been touted for his framing ability and finished last season ranking in the 64th percentile. He has struggled more in 2023 by ranking in the 27th percentile. 

First Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify
The Twins have used multiple players at first base so far in 2023, which means no one has accumulated enough innings to qualify for the SDI leaderboard. In the initial rankings, Joey Gallo ranked sixth with a -0.2 SDI, but he has started playing more outfield, with Alex Kirilloff getting regular reps at first base. Kirilloff has struggled at first base with a -5 DRS and a -4 OAA in over 280 innings. Only three AL first basemen have a positive SDI, and Kirilloff's struggles wouldn't put him in the Gold Glove conversation. 

Second Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify
Like first base, the Twins have shuffled through different players at second base. Jorge Polanco is close to returning from injury but has struggled defensively in recent years as age and injuries start to mount. Edouard Julien is considered a below-average defensive second baseman, and other metrics prove that to be true. He has a -5 DRS and OAA in over 240 innings at second. Minnesota refuses to give him time at other defensive positions, so Julien needs to find a way to be passable at second so his bat can stay in the line-up. 

Third Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify
Four Twins players have accrued more than 100 innings at third base this season, with Jose Miranda leading the way. In over 300 innings, Miranda has posted a 1 DRS and a -6 OAA, so he wouldn't rank well according to SDI if he qualified for the leaderboard. Royce Lewis had a 1 DRS and a -1 OAA in just under 200 innings before his oblique injury. With Lewis and Miranda on the IL, Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro will see more time at the hot corner. 

Shortstop (AL Ranking): Carlos Correa 1.1 SDI (7th)
Correa made a solid jump in the rankings over the last month by improving by 1.7 SDI and moving from 11th to 7th in the AL. Last season, he started poorly and finished the season with a 1.6 SDI (9th in the AL). He is on pace to finish with a better defensive season, but there is little chance of him catching the players in the top three who have between 9.1 and 4.2 SDI. It's a far cry from the defensive player he was in Houston, but his plantar fasciitis might be impacting his mobility. 

Left Field (AL Ranking): Willi Castro 1.0 SDI (6th), Joey Gallo -0.1 SDI (8th)
He has not been known as a strong defender, but the Twins are getting a career-best season from Castro. With Detroit, he combined for a -1 DRS and a -1 OAA in LF, but he's posted a 3 DRS and a 0 OAA in 2023. Gallo is just a little behind Castro with a 0 DRS and a -1 OAA. Only two qualified AL left fielder rank below Gallo, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Andrew Benintendi. 

Center Field (AL Ranking): Michael A. Taylor 3.7 SDI (5th)
Taylor had a tremendous month of June by accumulating 3.0 SDI and moving up two spots on the AL leaderboard. In his age-32 season, he ranks in the 90th percentile for OAA, and his arm strength is in the 84th percentile. Despite this improvement, many fans have been clamoring for Byron Buxton to return to center field. Twins General Manager Thad Levine recently said that Buxton has been working "behind the scenes" to return to center field. Taylor has been great defensively, but Buxton has the potential to be even better. 

Right Field (AL Ranking): Max Kepler 1.6 SDI (5th)
Kepler was a Gold Glove finalist in 2022 after finishing the season with the second-highest SDI total (6.3 SDI). He posted an elite Outs Above Average ranking in the 97th percentile in 2022. Defensively, he struggled to start the season but improved his OAA from the 67th percentile at the beginning of June to the 84th percentile by the All-Star break. The top AL right fielders have accumulated a 3.3 SDI or higher, so Kepler must continue to play well to move into the top-3. 

Are you surprised by any of these defensive rankings? Which Twins will be Gold Glove finalists? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Brandon]

Surely there is more than one stat available to use in evaluating if a player is the best in the league.  

[arby58]

Taylor has the pedigree and performance. If I had to 'bet the farm' on any Twin to win a Gold Glove this year, it would be him.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Cody for this important article. Defense overall is normally undervalued but IMO is very important, I had very high expectations for this team so far I've been a little disappointed.

The 2 negative surprises for me are Gallo & Kiriloff. Gallo has been touted as an elite cOF, which he hasn't proved this season. I also expected much more from Kiriloff at 1B. For the last 2 years I've advocated Julien to play 1B.

This team has a tendency to force some players into critical positions where they haven't the compacity to play. 1st Polanco forced to play SS, Cave at CF, Martin at SS and lastly Julien at 2B with the shift ban. If the Twins had the forsight they should have played Julien at 1B last extensively. 1B is where he could've came straight up to MLB when Kiriloff's return was delayed & there is where his future is at.

Polanco has been abused by this organization by playing him for long time hurt all these years & it has affecting his performance & now it has paid a toll on his body. Normally he bounces right back, although this time it has taken longer but I'm confident he'll come back & play up to his expectations as well as Lewis & Buxton.

The one nice surprise is Castro, where he has stepped in at almost any position & play above average defense.

 

 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins do not have any player that stands out defensively. Max Kepler is the closest but he has had a few glitches this season. 

On the other hand, the Twins have been pretty consistent in making the basic plays and Carlos Correa is the gold standard for turning every routine ground ball into an out.

[USAFChief]

I'm confused. You chose to use SDI as your method of evaluating defense.

By that method only one Twin ranks higher than 5th in the AL (Lopez, 3rd). 

Yet "multiple Twins (are) putting themselves in Gold Glove conversation?"

Pray tell, which ones?

[HoskenPowell]

Looks like Lopez is the only one with a chance in you know what using the stats you present.

 

How in the world is the MULTIPLE????????

No Twins player deserves a gold glove , much like no Twins player deserved to called a all star.

Now if they just would put Buxton on the dl and put a end to a years worth of excuses.  Either he's healthy or he's on the DL.  How many 1 for 30 plus ab's do the fans need to endure??????

His benching has been a bright spot this week.

 

[TwinsAce]

55 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'm confused. You chose to use SDI as your method of evaluating defense.

By that method only one Twin ranks higher than 5th in the AL (Lopez, 3rd). 

Yet "multiple Twins (are) putting themselves in Gold Glove conversation?"

Pray tell, which ones?

I was expecting at least 3 players in the top 2-3 in the AL at their position based on the title. 
Instead, this tells me we have no candidates for the Gold Glove, especially with Greinke dominating the pitcher role.  (Unless he is traded to the NL?)

I do think we have some solid players on defense, with our catchers, Correa, Taylor, and Kepler leading the charge.

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

Surely there is more than one stat available to use in evaluating if a player is the best in the league.  

I just woke up when I wrote this.  I think there is a better way to say this.  Let’s make this a multiple article series evaluating defensive performance for the starting 9 using different defensive metrics and then bring the info together to compare defensive capabilities at the end to spark a well informed discussion on who deserves a gold glove.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'm confused. You chose to use SDI as your method of evaluating defense.

By that method only one Twin ranks higher than 5th in the AL (Lopez, 3rd). 

Yet "multiple Twins (are) putting themselves in Gold Glove conversation?"

Pray tell, which ones?

Especially considering SDI is nowadays a portion of how Gold Gloves are awarded.

I guess the OP's point is that some players have moved up since earlier rankings this year.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

I just woke up when I wrote this.  I think there is a better way to say this.  Let’s make this a multiple article series evaluating defensive performance for the starting 9 using different defensive metrics and then bring the info together to compare defensive capabilities at the end to spark a well informed discussion on who deserves a gold glove.

SDI is itself a "bringing together" of several independent metrics.  This makes it a worse mishmash than OPS, on the other hand it smooths out the outliers.  Anyone who doesn't like SDI will dislike its components even more, and for good and consistent reasons.

Defense is cursed with smaller samples sizes than the offense, so it's an unsolvable problem.  But the eye test is also an unsolvable problem for different reasons.  We just have to muddle through, and accept that consensus will be hard to reach.

Or, we can, you know, be at each others' throats about it.