3 Factors Impacting the Twins 2024 Draft Bonus Pool

[Jamie Cameron]

The Twins benefited greatly from the inaugural MLB Draft Lottery, jumping from 13th to the fifth overall pick and adding $2.7 million to pursue prospects. What does their Draft Pool look like in 2024? What are the factors that could add or detract from it?

Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp

Now that the dust has (sort of) settled on the Minnesota Twins 2023 Draft, we anxiously await news of new Minnesota Twins signing. While it’s far too early to look at the 2024 class (headline, it’s not as good), we can chart some paths of what the Twins bonus pool situation might look like in 2024.

Famously, the Twins were the beneficiaries of the inaugural MLB Draft Lottery, moving from the 13th pick to the fifth, gaining about $2.7 in bonus pool money. In doing so, they secured a likely top 30 consensus global prospect in Walker Jenkins. Additionally, their bloated bonus pool allowed them the luxury of leaning into an incredibly strong prep class, nabbing Brandon Winokur in the third round and Dylan Questad in the fifth. Surely the Twins won’t have such a rosy financial outlook in 2024? No, but it’s more interesting than you might think.

Here are three factors that will significantly impact the Minnesota Twins 2024 bonus pool.

Do They Make the Playoffs?
The Twins persistent mediocrity has been incredibly frustrating to watch in the first half of the season. Remarkably, despite playing in the AL Central, they currently sit outside the playoffs. If they don’t win the Central, the Twins will be eligible for the Draft Lottery for a second consecutive year. The chances of the Twins moving up for their mid-league record will again be incredibly small, but it remains a factor for consideration, hopefully one we don’t have to think about come September. It’s noteworthy that as a mid-market (revenue sharing) team, the Twins are prohibited from moving up in the draft in three consecutive years.

Competitive Balance Pick
The Twins will be eligible for a Comp pick in 2024. Comp picks are awarded to the ten lowest revenue teams and the 10 smallest market teams. As some franchises fit both criteria, there are less than 20 of these picks awarded every year. Picks in Comp A and Comp B are awarded via lottery which determines which round a team is picking and in what order. This makes a substantial difference to teams with Comp A pick slots ranging from $2.2 - $2.7 million and Comp B slots ranging from $1.1 - $1.2 million using 2023 slot values.

Sonny Gray
The Twins had a few players who might have been eligible for a Qualifying Offer (QO) at the end of 2023. Sonny Gray is the last man standing from these candidates. Recent comments indicated he might choose to retire from baseball at the end of this season. For the purposes of this thought exercise, we’re going to make a quartet of assumptions:

• Sonny Gray continues playing
• The Twins give Sonny Gray a QO
• Sonny Gray rejects the QO to test free agency
• Sonny Gray signs elsewhere as a free agent

While this may seem like a narrow path (it is at the moment), in this scenario, the Twins gain a compensatory pick for losing a player who rejected a QO. In this instance, the size of Sonny Gray’s contract becomes significant for the Twins:

• If a player signs for over $50 million: The team is awarded a pick after round one, before Comp Round A (approximately $2.8 million slot value in 2023).
• If a player signs for under $50 million: The team is awarded a pick after Comp Round B (approximately $1.1 million slot value in 2023).

Here are three scenarios that demonstrate how much variation there could be in the Twins 2024 bonus pool. For this thought exercise, we’ll use 2023 slots as a proxy for next year.  

Scenario 1: Largest Budget

• The Twins miss the playoffs and move up in the Draft Lottery from 12th to 6th: +$1.6 million
• The Twins are awarded a Comp A pick: +$2.4 million
• Sonny Gray rejects a QO and signs with another team for over $50 million: +$2.8 million
• Total added to bonus pool: +$6.8 million

Scenario 2: Smallest Budget

• The Twins make the playoffs (first rounds exit, not eligible for lottery)
• Twins have 19th overall pick (slot $3.8 million)
• Twins are awarded a Comp B pick towards the back of the round: +$1.1 million
• Sonny Gray accepts the Twins QO: No impact
• Total added to bonus pool: +$1.1 million

Scenario 3: A More Likely Middle Ground

• The Twins make the playoffs (first round exit, not eligible for lottery)
• Twins have 19th overall pick (slot $3.8 million)
• Twins are awarded a Comp B pick towards the back of the round: +$1.1 million
• Sonny Gray rejects a QO and signs with another team for over $50 million: +$2.8 million
• Total added to bonus pool: +$3.9 million

Do you think the Twins offer Sonny Gray the qualifying offer? Do you think he would accept? Join the discussion in the comments?

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[roger]

Those comments are really interesting.  If he really believes what he said, he may be very happy with a short term deal, say two years.  With the Twins being able to do a QO, they should be in the driver’s seat to resign him.

[Dman]

I don't think Gray accepts the QO.  While I don't think he hates it in Minnesota I don't get the feeling he loves it either.  Unless retirement really is weighing heavily on his mind he will go for a three year deal.  If he continua's to pitch as well as he has been until the end the of the year.  I have to believe 20M per year is the floor.  If he flounders down the stretch then maybe less hard to say with prices rising.  

If he is unsure about retirement he might want to just do a two year deal and try and up the AAV as that might really appeal to teams that think he will be hard pressed to do well in his 37 year old season.  He should have two solid years of good to elite baseball left in him so maybe he works out a two year AAV of 25M or more and could go year to year after that.

Honestly I see him back with the Reds next year as they need pitching help they know the kind of player they would be getting and they have the money to spend.  His kids grew up there and love the team if he isn't going to retire I think that is where he ends up.

I don't see the Twins getting a comp A pick as I think they are weighted on last years results as teams seem to switch from A to B almost every year.  I can't remember the Twins ever getting a comp A two years in a row.  I think B is the likely scenario.

I also doubt the Twins would move up in the lottery again unless they have the luck of the Irish it was almost a fluke that they got it this year.  Odds are they stand pat.

If Gray could net them another supplemental 1st round pick that could help the team a ton.  They would be in really good spots to pick pitching in those spots as hitters usually go first.  Will have to see how some of the young kids do in the FCL but the Twins might not need much for hitters if the FCL kids plus Jenkins and maybe Winokur are starting in A ball.

Thanks for the thought exercise but I think the middle looks about right just depends on what teams are willing to spend on Sonny.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I believe the comment about fun' was telling. How much fun can it be for a pitcher to pitch for a team that cannot hit?

Also, there is clearly little, if any, 'fire' on this team. It's like they're going through the motions. That can't be fun.

IMHO: He will sign elsewhere unless the team starts supporting him with runs. Can't really blame him.

On a positive note, if the team does start hitting we have the pitching to make the post season interesting.

[kmeyer14]

Forgive me if I'm wrong on this.... but I believe there might be one or two more things that impact it. Specifically where some of the young guys place in awards racing. I don't remember if Julien was in the top 100 in multiple places (he was close if he wasn't) but him placing or winning ROY gets the Twins a pick - same could be for Royce, though that's obviously less likely now.  However, from my understanding, because Joe Ryan is still pre-arb, him placing high in the Cy young award race could net the Twins a pick. I don't remember how high he has to place, but I believe it's a thing that could happen this year. 

[twinsfansd]

I believe the Comp picks change from Comp A to Comp B every other year. The only thing that would change that is if a team no longer qualifies.

[Jamie Cameron]

6 hours ago, Dman said:

I don't think Gray accepts the QO.  While I don't think he hates it in Minnesota I don't get the feeling he loves it either.  Unless retirement really is weighing heavily on his mind he will go for a three year deal.  If he continua's to pitch as well as he has been until the end the of the year.  I have to believe 20M per year is the floor.  If he flounders down the stretch then maybe less hard to say with prices rising.  

If he is unsure about retirement he might want to just do a two year deal and try and up the AAV as that might really appeal to teams that think he will be hard pressed to do well in his 37 year old season.  He should have two solid years of good to elite baseball left in him so maybe he works out a two year AAV of 25M or more and could go year to year after that.

Honestly I see him back with the Reds next year as they need pitching help they know the kind of player they would be getting and they have the money to spend.  His kids grew up there and love the team if he isn't going to retire I think that is where he ends up.

I don't see the Twins getting a comp A pick as I think they are weighted on last years results as teams seem to switch from A to B almost every year.  I can't remember the Twins ever getting a comp A two years in a row.  I think B is the likely scenario.

I also doubt the Twins would move up in the lottery again unless they have the luck of the Irish it was almost a fluke that they got it this year.  Odds are they stand pat.

If Gray could net them another supplemental 1st round pick that could help the team a ton.  They would be in really good spots to pick pitching in those spots as hitters usually go first.  Will have to see how some of the young kids do in the FCL but the Twins might not need much for hitters if the FCL kids plus Jenkins and maybe Winokur are starting in A ball.

Thanks for the thought exercise but I think the middle looks about right just depends on what teams are willing to spend on Sonny.

Yah the Comp pick is something I'm trying to clarify as I thought it was alternated, have also thought it was performance based, but doesn't seem to fit those patterns:

2019 - Comp A, 2020 (5 round draft so discounting), 2021 - Comp A, 2022 - Comp B, 2023 - Comp A, so they've had Comp A three of the last four times they've had a Comp pick.

I'll work on getting a better answer to that. Don't see any reason they wouldn't qualify due to a status change though, so at worst, a roughly $1.1 million boost to pool based on this years' slots.

[DocBauer]

I don't know Gray but he seems like a good dude. I know he's known as a real leader for the staffs he's on, helping to bring everyone together to do things Ike sharing the scouting reports as a unit, and watching the day's starter as a collective unit. When you watch interviews with him, he does them with a ball in his hand and it just looks natural for him to do so. I think his comment was more of a "who knows, I might retire?" as an off the cuff comment. I put no faith in it as anything but that.

I don't recall him ever saying anything remotely negative about the team or the organization. His comment about wanting to throw longer in games last season was SO blown out of proportion. He's a competitor who doesn't want to come out. A week after that comment he got another inning and it didn't work. His very honest comment was that he appreciated getting the opportunity to go longer, but it was up to him to then do the job. He's just a matter of fact guy when he gives answers. I appreciate that in a player. And while he's seldom ever been a 180IP thrower in his career, he's generally very good for 5-6, going 7 every once in a while. Despite an All Star worthy season this year, he's had a few games where he barely made it through 5. He never blasted the decision to take him out, but simply opined that he needed to throw better and get better.

So I don't know if he loves being a Twin or not. But there's zero evidence he is a dissenter of any sort who doesn't like being here either.

The Twins will, and should, offer the QO. If he rejects it, which I expect, I DON'T see an interested team NOT signing him because of the QO. He's too good to play games. 

I think the Twins would be overjoyed to have him for 1yr at the QO were he to accept. I DO expect the Twins to offer him a deal, however. I think what they would like is a 2yr deal for around $45-50M. Despite them liking him, wanting to keep him, having payroll flexibility to keep him, I don't see a guaranteed 3rd season unless it's something like 2yrs at about $25M each, and the 3rd year for something like $12-15. I believe they will see too much risk/reward for anything larger than that. But that still puts him somewhere between $55-60M for 3yrs, just less in year 3. I think what they would really like is $23-25 per for 2yrs, and $12-14 for year 3 with a $5M buyout. That would be ideal for the Twins, but another team might be willing to go a full 3yrs at a guaranteed $60-65 and the Twins are out.  Despite being 34yo next year, and paying him through his age 37yo season, all it takes is one team to offer that.

Now, IF, there is any part of him remotely considering retirement before turning 37, then a 2yr for $50 might put him back with the Twins.

I just think he's gone, not because he doesn't like being a Twin, but because someone is going to give him a $60M deal that the Twins won't. 

But we get a pair of great seasons and a comp pick that he, more or less, initially cost.

But I would like him back if it worked out somehow.

[Jocko87]

9 hours ago, kmeyer14 said:

Forgive me if I'm wrong on this.... but I believe there might be one or two more things that impact it. Specifically where some of the young guys place in awards racing. I don't remember if Julien was in the top 100 in multiple places (he was close if he wasn't) but him placing or winning ROY gets the Twins a pick - same could be for Royce, though that's obviously less likely now.  However, from my understanding, because Joe Ryan is still pre-arb, him placing high in the Cy young award race could net the Twins a pick. I don't remember how high he has to place, but I believe it's a thing that could happen this year. 

Its top 3 in the Cy Young or MVP for a pre-arb.  The Mariners got the 29th pick and 2.55m in pool money for J-Rod rookie of the year.  The Braves lost out on Micheal Harris as he didn't have enough service time, not sure if he was a qualified prospect though. 

Ryan does seem like the last hope for this year but it will be very interesting to see how they handle promotions going forward.  The whole point is to get the young talent up quick so there will be competition.  I kinda think this program makes it possible a Brooks Lee might break camp with the Twins next year.

It might also affect how quickly prospects are pushed through the lower levels too.  To get on the prospect rankings lists they will have to be fast movers.  I was thinking about that watching Raya pitch last night.  He was just on the IL and is still on an innings limit but was promoted anyway.  It seems odd to bring a very young pitcher back from the IL and promote him to AA.  I haven't seen anything about why but one benefit would be that it raises his prospect status.  Who knows.

[weitz41]

It's an interesting set of circumstances. 

I'd prefer if they resigned him, and I don't buy he may retire as a serious consideration. With the money that was thrown around last offseason I expect someone will outbid the Twins. No, I'm not saying the Twins are too cheap. More of there are too many young teams that need pitching and have a lot more money to spend.

Twins make the playoffs, QO rejected, he signs for 50+ mil elsewhere Comp A pick and Comp B pick for market size.

[old nurse]

Sonny did not handle being a Yankee. The assumption of a $50 million contract might not be a valid one given age and experience. Accepting a QO would be a more likely outcome for the ambivalent player.. 

[saviking]

21 hours ago, kmeyer14 said:

Forgive me if I'm wrong on this.... but I believe there might be one or two more things that impact it. Specifically where some of the young guys place in awards racing. I don't remember if Julien was in the top 100 in multiple places (he was close if he wasn't) but him placing or winning ROY gets the Twins a pick - same could be for Royce, though that's obviously less likely now.  However, from my understanding, because Joe Ryan is still pre-arb, him placing high in the Cy young award race could net the Twins a pick. I don't remember how high he has to place, but I believe it's a thing that could happen this year. 

Interesting!