What's so Bad About Max Kepler?

[sorney]

Watching him stare at a ball over his head yesterday, that ended up hitting the base of the wall in RCF, and not even move....I've had enough of him.  I get it might not have been able to be caught, but he literally just watched it.  Then, a couple batters later, he makes his diving catch on the low liner.  I've just seen enough, and am ready for a change.  

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

Every year the Twins are decent, the knock against them is starting pitching.

Every year when analysts look at the dark horses or favorites going into the postseason, its the teams with the best starting pitching that are highlighted.

Now, the starting pitching has to stay healthy, but imagine Gray, Ryan and Lopez with Ober kicked to the bullpen for the playoffs. This is a golden opportunity with how terrible our division is. If you don't give it a shot, why even try?

Every year? They've finished 5th and 3rd the last two years in this terrible division. 

The lineup, which has struggled all year, also has to face playoff rotations. There won't be a 39 year old, washed up Zack Greinke trying to squeeze out a 6th inning after being battered in the first 5, during playoff contests. 

You can "give it a shot," without pushing in valuable chips on a very flawed team. 

4 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I don’t buy that they are a hopeless case just because they stumbled for most of the first half. The recent past is filled with teams that didn’t look like championship caliber, but turned it around (Off the top of my head—‘19 Nationals, ‘21 Braves and ‘22 Phils). The pitching has been top notch and it’s supposed to be between 60 and 75 percent of the game. There is so much room for improvement from established players (Correa, Buxton & Polanco) and some young guys might step forward (Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien Jeffers).

The Twins have been handed an invitation to the playoffs. I think they should take that invitation. 

Why should we take them seriously as an actual WS contender? That's the better question. They've stumbled through the first 80+ games of the year, and despite having the massive advantage of playing in the ALC, they're fighting just to stay around .500. A regression argument that ignores the other side of that coin isn't all that compelling. 

Take the invitation, don't try to keep up with the Joneses. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Every year? They've finished 5th and 3rd the last two years in this terrible division. 

The lineup, which has struggled all year, also has to face playoff rotations. There won't be a 39 year old, washed up Zack Greinke trying to squeeze out a 6th inning after being battered in the first 5, during playoff contests. 

You can "give it a shot," without pushing in valuable chips on a very flawed team. 

Why should we take them seriously as an actual WS contender? That's the better question. They've stumbled through the first 80+ games of the year, and despite having the massive advantage of playing in the ALC, they're fighting just to stay around .500. A regression argument that ignores the other side of that coin isn't all that compelling. 

Take the invitation, don't try to keep up with the Joneses. 

The schedule in the first half wasn't playing a bunch of ALC teams, so I'm not sure I understand that second to last paragraph. I agree they aren't great, but that has nothing to do with the division. 

[Hans Birkeland]

16 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Every year? They've finished 5th and 3rd the last two years in this terrible division. 

Every year THAT they are decent our rotation is questioned.

[Danchat]

Even with the current hot streak he's on, he's still got a subpar OPS+ of 94 and is still getting on base at a sub .300 clip. At least his power is back, with 12 HRs in 214 PAs compared to 9 last year in 446. Still, I'd trade him while he still has some value, as I wouldn't be shocked if this turns out to be the high point for him this year.

[RpR]

On 7/5/2023 at 1:15 PM, Hans Birkeland said:

Max Kepler has been a little better lately, but Twins' fans still want him gone. What's our deal?

 

 

People just do not like Max Kepler it is simple as  that, they do not need a reason.

[Mike Sixel]

14 hours ago, RpR said:

People just do not like Max Kepler it is simple as  that, they do not need a reason.

Ridiculous. It's about 4 years of not being good. Seriously. 

[Hans Birkeland]

I think there is a perception that Kepler doesn't care enough, as well. I was watching him make that catch along the foul line last night, and I noticed he started slowing up when he was still 15 feet from the ball which allowed him to make the catch and avoid any issues with the stands/netting. Jake Cave would have had a worse jump but still made the catch, flown top speed into the stands, busted his lip and worn it as a badge of honor. Kind of a Robinson Cano vs Derek Jeter thing. Same result, but fans tend to embrace the guy who busted his lip for the team.

[RpR]

25 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ridiculous. It's about 4 years of not being good. Seriously. 

The words they write about him contradict that, but that is your opinion and I have mine.

I will admit he was bad last year, have gone from 10-0 in 2021 stealing bases to 3-2 which meant some thing had changed drastically in the way he approached the game.

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

 

The Phillies were terrible defensively and went out and got Brandon Marsh, who solidified center field for them. They also got rid of Didi Gregorius and traded for Edmundo Sosa, who was great defensively for them.

As for trading Kepler, it has to be for something that improves the team now. I don't think Lane Thomas is that guy, maybe Connor Joe of the Pirates who can really hit lefties but has no track record of success. Jorge Soler again but he's such a Jekyl and Hyde kind of player I don't think he improves the team much, either with his poor defense.

If the team goes out and gets a bat, it needs to be Justin Turner or better, and even that carries risk outside of the prospect capital required.

Brandon Marsh was far from an established ML player when he was acquired.  They basically traded a major league ready player for one with 1 year of service time.  Marsh is not a free agent until 2028.  This is a far different scenario than trading prospects for a rental or a player with an extra year of control.  This is not an example of a marginal team trading prospects for short-term players.  The Twins trading Wallner for a major league ready catcher is a very different scenario than trading him for a rental.  Edmundo Sosa produced 1.2 WAR in 22.  Is he really an example of the type of player that would elevate the twins into contention? 

Kepler is highly unlikely to bring back an established player.  Any team looking for someone like Kepler to help short-term is not looking to give up established players in return. At least not an established player of any value.

[Hans Birkeland]

43 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Brandon Marsh was far from an established ML player when he was acquired.  They basically traded a major league ready player for one with 1 year of service time.  Marsh is not a free agent until 2028.  This is a far different scenario than trading prospects for a rental or a player with an extra year of control.  This is not an example of a marginal team trading prospects for short-term players.  The Twins trading Wallner for a major league ready catcher is a very different scenario than trading him for a rental.  Edmundo Sosa produced 1.2 WAR in 22.  Is he really an example of the type of player that would elevate the twins into contention? 

Kepler is highly unlikely to bring back an established player.  Any team looking for someone like Kepler to help short-term is not looking to give up established players in return. At least not an established player of any value.

The Phillies had different needs, and they did a good job fulfilling them. Kepler won't bring back much, maybe an A-ball pitcher with some upside; the days of him having significant trade value are long gone. May as well keep him and let him give you 1.5-2 WAR down the stretch with good clubhouse feels.

[Schmoeman5]

3 hours ago, RpR said:

People just do not like/ hate Max Kepler it is simple as  that, they do not need a reason.

It has nothing to do with like or hate. His defense, his strongest suit has only been avg. Until the past week or so. I already mentioned how every ball hit to the gap he shys away from. He let's Taylor run everything down. He finally ran one down on Tues vs Royals.  And same for his wall play. He made an outstanding play to possibly save the game with a sliding catch on the line. He had a similar play vs the red Sox that he completely gave up on. Which cost them that game earlier this year. So he can make the plays but he doesn't give 100% on every play. And where he could really make a difference is by helping out in CF but he has said he'd rather not. Really. That's the guy you want? Someone who plays on their terms. How many triples has he misplayed off the overhang in his home park? And offensively he's been non existent at times and has been chastised by Rocco for lack of hustle. So it's not a like or hate thing. It's an effort thing. But you watch the same games I do and you consider his play flawless. I don't. 

[Schmoeman5]

8 hours ago, sorney said:

Watching him stare at a ball over his head yesterday, that ended up hitting the base of the wall in RCF, and not even move....I've had enough of him.  I get it might not have been able to be caught, but he literally just watched it.  Then, a couple batters later, he makes his diving catch on the low liner.  I've just seen enough, and am ready for a change.  

100% accurate

[KirbyDome89]

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

The schedule in the first half wasn't playing a bunch of ALC teams, so I'm not sure I understand that second to last paragraph. I agree they aren't great, but that has nothing to do with the division. 

Nearly a quarter of this team's Ws have come against KC. That's not an advantage? The Twins have a losing record in 20 games against all other division opponents. That isn't a massive opportunity (advantage) squandered when you consider how middling to bad those other three teams are?

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

The Phillies had different needs, and they did a good job fulfilling them. Kepler won't bring back much, maybe an A-ball pitcher with some upside; the days of him having significant trade value are long gone. May as well keep him and let him give you 1.5-2 WAR down the stretch with good clubhouse feels.

We just disagree.  For starters, Max has had many of these little hot streaks and with the exception of 2019 has never maintained a high level of play so the benefit of keeping Kepler is far from assured.  He is just as likely to regress to the same inept hitter he has been for the past 3+ years. 

More importantly, this club is not a serious contender and there is an opportunity cost in keeping Kepler.  One in the form of whatever he brings back and another in taking up a roster space that should be used to develop our players of the future.   It's very easy to maximize the present.  It's much harder and takes a more disciplined approach to build a true contender.  Would Tampa keep Kepler.  Now way!

[Hans Birkeland]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

We just disagree.  For starters, Max has had many of these little hot streaks and with the exception of 2019 has never maintained a high level of play so the benefit of keeping Kepler is far from assured.  He is just as likely to regress to the same inept hitter he has been for the past 3+ years. 

More importantly, this club is not a serious contender and there is an opportunity cost in keeping Kepler.  One in the form of whatever he brings back and another in taking up a roster space that should be used to develop our players of the future.   It's very easy to maximize the present.  It's much harder and takes a more disciplined approach to build a true contender.  Would Tampa keep Kepler.  Now way!

Tampa would 100% keep Kepler, never let him face a lefty and see him post his best OPS in years while subbing in for defense late in games he doesn't start. Then they would flip him while his value is high.

[nicksaviking]

24 minutes ago, Hans Birkeland said:

Tampa would 100% keep Kepler, never let him face a lefty and see him post his best OPS in years while subbing in for defense late in games he doesn't start. Then they would flip him while his value is high.

Tampa would have traded high on Kepler after 2019. And to their credit, they probably would have been able to tell what would happen to him offensively after the league deadened the ball.

[Mike Sixel]

10 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Nearly a quarter of this team's Ws have come against KC. That's not an advantage? The Twins have a losing record in 20 games against all other division opponents. That isn't a massive opportunity (advantage) squandered when you consider how middling to bad those other three teams are?

That's a random function....they are also above .500 against good teams other than ATL and BAL....

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Tampa would have traded high on Kepler after 2019. And to their credit, they probably would have been able to tell what would happen to him offensively after the league deadened the ball.

Truth, and it isn't close. 

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

That's a random function....they are also above .500 against good teams other than ATL and BAL....

Or they've beaten up an awful team and played meh to poor baseball outside of those series...

You mean TB right? LA? The Twins are 22-27 against teams over .500. Their record against sub .500 teams other than KC isn't good either. 

[KirbyDome89]

23 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

Every year THAT they are decent our rotation is questioned.

As it turns out, it's important to choose the correct part of speech in order to convey the intended message. Wild.

[Hans Birkeland]

6 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

As it turns out, it's important to choose the correct part of speech in order to convey the intended message. Wild.

I said "Every year the Twins are decent, the knock against them is starting pitching." That's a comma, not a semicolon.

[LA Vikes Fan]

On 7/5/2023 at 11:43 AM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I saw the title of this article and laughed and laughed expecting the comments to be beyond vitriolic.  I am pleasantly surprised to be wrong.  Please keep up the civility...

In a perfect world, Max Kepler is your 4th OF.  The Twins (or Kepler's) unwillingness to play him in CF hamstrings everyone going forward. 

The article does a great job of addressing the "problems" with Kepler.  Realistic expectations need to be had here.  There is no definitive better option in the minors.  I also think clubhouse impact plays a role here.  Everyone needs to do a cost-benefit check, realize the OF positions in the Twins system are not deep or strong, and any demonstrative improvement will cost resources.  Unless they make a move or two before the deadline, expect to see Max patrolling RF again next year. 

I think you're right - Kepler will be the RF next year if he even hits a little less than his career average of .231/.315/.427 this year and has 20 or so HRs. Larnach has been at best inconsistent at the MLB level and Wallner has all of  76 MLB ABs, only 19 this year. I cna't see them dumping Kepler and Gallo, and it's hard for me to see the Twins re-signing Gallo unless thing tick up a whole bunch from where they are now.  

It's looking more and more like the "mistake" that blocks giving Wallner his shot was picking up Joey Gallo.  Hopefully we kind find a home for him by the trade deadline in return for an average reliever or maybe A Ball lottery ticket or two so Wallner can get a shot. I can't see the Twins opening up both RF and LF this year or next when the only thing between them and more Garlick is an inconsistent Larnach and an untested Wallner. Let's open one spot and at least get the "untested" issue solved. 

[KirbyDome89]

29 minutes ago, Hans Birkeland said:

I said "Every year the Twins are decent, the knock against them is starting pitching." That's a comma, not a semicolon.

Comma usage wasn't the issue, the lack of a conjunction to specify which year(s) was. 

[Hans Birkeland]

8 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Comma usage wasn't the issue, the lack of a conjunction to specify which year(s) was. 

[RpR]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

 

It's looking more and more like the "mistake" that blocks giving Wallner his shot was picking up Joey Gallo.

Nothing is blocking Wallner except lack of talent.

What keeps Wallner in the minors is the fact that Kepler , in the minors, in 8 years had 4 errors in Right Field; Wallner , in the minors, in 4 years , had 26 errors in Right Field.

[LA Vikes Fan]

36 minutes ago, RpR said:

Nothing is blocking Wallner except lack of talent.

What keeps Wallner in the minors is the fact that Kepler , in the minors, in 8 years had 4 errors in Right Field; Wallner , in the minors, in 4 years , had 26 errors in Right Field.

Which is why I think Kepler is the twins RF in 2024. Gallo goes and Walner and Larnach fight it out for LF. 

[Mike Sixel]

OPS under .700 again.....a couple hot games do not offset 3+ bad years of data.