Should Twins Spend like Padres?

[Trov]

Over the off-season there were some articles and post about how the Padres are a smaller market than the Twins, but spending like the big market teams.  This upset many Twins fans on here saying we can spend more.  The idea is the more you spend, the more you win, because you get the higher priced talent.  This year, our 2 highest paid players are doing terrible, in comparison to what we want.  Buxton and CC are both well below expectations.  Despite not playing well, we are tied for first, mainly on our pitching keeping us in games, and despite leading our division in runs scored, our offense just looks terrible most nights, and really seems to be trending down. 

However, despite that, the Padres are doing even worse.  Some arguments can be made to the division, but unlike years past where division plays a much larger roll, this year is first year every team plays every team and division games are cut down a bit.  The Padres record is 1 win better than the Tigers.  

With getting no offense from catcher, they even went to our cast off Gary Sanchez, who has been by far their best offensive catcher.  There offense is top heavy, which is to be expected based on their plan of spending big and bring in top end talent.  There big signing this year, Bogarts is hitting league average basically.  Soto, the big trade last year, and Tatis are doing what you would expect.  Machado is having very much a down year, below league average.  Really outside of Soto and Tatis, the rest of the team has been about average to below average to way below average.   Aaron Nola, who has started 51 game at catcher is hitting worse than pitchers used to. 

What makes things worse for their offense is that they have no one in the wings you can call up to fill in.  They are outscoring their opponents at a plus 23 clip, and scored 364 runs.  Twins have outscored opponents at plus 31 and scored 353.  So really our offenses are very close.  Padres have 2 guys really carrying the load, we have had different guys at different stretches, but our 2 highest paid offense guys are letting us down.  There highest paid guys some are letting them down, some are doing what you expect. 

The Padres starting pitching has been similar to Twins, some good guys with bounce back seasons of guys, but they have had some regression of Musgrove.  They also have a top closer in Hader, having a bounce back season.  However, it looks like their pen is really dropping the ball compared to Twins pen.  

Getting back to the question, should the Twins spend like the Padres.  I have always said, spending to just spend is dumb, and you need to spend on the right guys.  Twins have signed two huge long term contracts on hitters last 2 years.  This year both have let us down.  Padres have spent huge on several guys over the years, between contracts on free agents, Machado, Hosmer, Darvish, Boegarts.  Hosmer was terrible and was dumped.  Machado has had good years and bad years, this year a down year.  Darvish ups and downs as well.  Boegarts this year has been average hitter, but when you are paying what you are you want more than average generally.  Tatis was traded for, a steal of giving up Shields, but other trades over the years has required the Padres give up a lot of prospects and depth to load up the current roster.  Snell, Myers, who has since left, Soto, and others.  They have extended some with contracts.  Snell has bounced back, and Soto is doing Soto things. 

I would say, if we can clearly point to guys that we think will be long term value, we should spend like the Padres, but if we keep having as many swings and misses as Padres, I would not want to keep spending like them.  The Padres have gone all in to win now, and they are not.  They have no prospects ready to come up, because they have shipped anyone with value out.  I am not a fan of trying to just build through big FA and trades.  I agree you need to do them from time to time to fill that final hole or two, but Padres have almost no home grown talent, Tatis is only one that came up through system after trade for him.  Austin Nola, the should be DFA catcher did come up through system as well.  The one issue with so much top end talent is if they struggle at all, or you get injuries, your team generally has no one else to go with.  I am a fan of a higher floor across the board, and hope for some peak seasons all at once. 

It is possible the Padres turn it around, but as we complain about our team doing terrible, the Padres record is worse, and Mets, who have spent more than any team last few years have been even worse. On the reverse side, the Rangers, who spent a ton the last 2 years, are in first place in their division with 50 wins. All their big signings are paying off this year, with Siemien and Seagar putting up big numbers, Seagar MVP type.  Evaldi is doing amazing so far, and DeGrom, before his injury for being out the season was doing DeGrom things. However, they are also supported by career year of  Travis Jankowski, by far doing better than any year he has played. Also career years from other roll players that came up through their system.  The Rangers, thought they had a good core, and needed to add and they did.  Padres have been trying to bring in top guys for years, and yet to see success.  

It is possible the career years and hot play in Texas drops off, and the poor years get turned around in Mets and Padres, just as Twins top paid guys bounce back too.  I would say we do not need to spend like other teams, if we can spend smart. 

[MABB1959]

I would say no only because Levine/Falvey have not made good trades or signings.  I think it shows in only having 1 pitcher and no position players chosen for the ASG.  I think they cannot see what San Fran and NY saw that made them decide to sign Correa.  It seems SF and NY made a wise decision.  Mostly I think he does have injuries that SF/NY saw and they are holding him back.  They had to sign Buxton or Twins fans would have went crazy but it is now pretty apparent that his injuries are not going to get better probably not going to ever play CF again and he had back spasms from running to 1st.  I would have serious thoughts of getting or forcing him to medically retire (that is terribly sad for sure).  Keeping Wallner down and playing Kepler is another head scratcher and tells me that they do not know what they are doing.  Are they going to keep Wallner down so long that he will start having injuries?  If ever they should have spent would have been last season on a #1 or 2 starter and not trading away Arraez.  

[Parfigliano]

Want to cut payroll...DFA Buxton

[Craig Arko]

The Padres don’t seem to have a whole lot to show for their spending. Nor do the Mets and the Angels. Don’t think dollars are by themselves the silver bullet here.

[Nine of twelve]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

It is possible the Padres turn it around, but as we complain about our team doing terrible, the Padres record is worse, and Mets, who have spent more than any team last few years have been even worse.

The Mets are not worse than the Padres. The two teams have exactly the same record.

And we should also keep in mind that both teams qualified for the postseason in 2022, the Mets with a 101-win season.

[Nine of twelve]

I don't think we should spend like the Padres. I think we should spend like the Rays.

[Nine of twelve]

43 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Want to cut payroll...DFA Buxton

That would hardly cut payroll at all. We would still have to pay out his contract, with a slight contribution from the first team to pick him up on waivers.

[specialiststeve]

If we get an A list manger and hitting coach.. fine... otherwise as is with a D manager and hitting coach... it is pointless!!

[sun]

The Twins had their chance to sign FA pitcher Michael Wacha & to keep Arraez but the Padres signed Wacha instead & now he's 8-2. with an ERA of 2.84.

Wacha's contract is for $7.5 mil for this year with mutual & club options for future years at $16 mil.

It's appears that the Twins could have targeted Wacha without sacrificing protection of the club's future pitching, hitting or financial outlook. 

It's virtually impossible for them to buy their way out of the quicksand when they traded away their best hitting talent who was under team control through the end of 2025.

The only upcoming FA that I can think of that could help the Twins out of this mess is Ohtani which would require a miracle.

 

[SwainZag]

7 minutes ago, sun said:

The Twins had their chance to sign FA pitcher Michael Wacha & to keep Arraez but the Padres signed Wacha instead & now he's 8-2. with an ERA of 2.84.

Wacha's contract is for $7.5 mil for this year with mutual & club options for future years at $16 mil.

It's appears that the Twins could have targeted Wacha without sacrificing protecting the club's future pitching, hitting & financial outlook. 

It's virtually impossible for them to buy their way our of the hole that they've dug when they traded away their best hitting talent who was under team control through 2025.

 

Wacha had a nice bounce back season last year and is having a good first half, but Lopez is a better pitcher and is 5 years younger.  Trading for Lopez was not looking just at a 1 year return.

[sun]

23 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

Wacha had a nice bounce back season last year and is having a good first half, but Lopez is a better pitcher and is 5 years younger.  Trading for Lopez was not looking just at a 1 year return.

Next year Wacha & the Padres have a mutual option, and the year after that the Padres have a club option which amounts to a 2 year future contract at that point that they don't need to exercise. 

The long term benefit of signing Lopez is questionable & the loss of Arraez seems to have jinxed the team's hitting. Ever hear about the curse on the Red Sox for trading Babe Ruth?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

I don't think we should spend like the Padres. I think we should spend like the Rays.

Yuck, no

If they got the bang for the buck that Tampa gets but still spend league median, great, but they won’t. Penny pinching sucks, and all the teams emulating Tampa suck too.

[Nine of twelve]

29 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Yuck, no

If they got the bang for the buck that Tampa gets but still spend league median, great, but they won’t. Penny pinching sucks, and all the teams emulating Tampa suck too.

If a team sucks it's not emulating Tampa Bay.

[Shobae]

Don't spend like the padres, spend as much as the padres. I don't know why any fan would be in favor of not spending more money on the team, it's not your money. It really blows my mind people would say "spend like the Rays" to save money for someone they don't know and who doesn't care about them.
Padres have made a lot of bad decisions and aren't utilizing the talent they have properly, so if the question is you spend more but in that reckless manner than it becomes a much more difficult decision. Very high risk high reward strategy, though given all the injury prone players on the twins I'm not sure it's radically different in outcome.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

29 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

If a team sucks it's not emulating Tampa Bay.

there is a difference between process and results.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, sun said:

Next year Wacha & the Padres have a mutual option, and the year after that the Padres have a club option which amounts to a 2 year future contract at that point that they don't need to exercise. 

The long term benefit of signing Lopez is questionable & the loss of Arraez seems to have jinxed the team's hitting. Ever hear about the curse on the Red Sox for trading Babe Ruth?

They also could have signed Rodon for $160M and got nothing.  Wacha is a nice story but to say they should have had a crystal ball and known Wacha was going to perform like a $25M/year SP is a convenient narrative.  There is also absolutely way Wacha accepts his end of the mutual option if he continues to pitch close to this level because someone will give him a multi year deal for 2X the AAV.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

We could have used this conversation six months ago, or however many months ago before the Twins signed Cor—, ah never mind 🙂

[chpettit19]

Should the Twins spend as much of the Padres? Why wouldn't we want that? Spending more just opens more doors for building a competitive team. It doesn't automatically make you a great team, but it makes reaching your goal easier. I'd be awfully happy with the Twins spending like the Dodgers. Or Braves. Or Astros. Or Blue Jays. I'd even take the Rangers spending even if I don't think it's as sustainable as the other 4 teams I named. Why would any fan ever not want their team to spend? You don't get bonus points for building a team on a budget. People don't think the Rays FO wouldn't love to double their payroll? Imagine what they could do with 150 mil, let alone 300. More money doesn't make you a better FO, but it gives a good FO more tools to work with. Of course we should want them to spend more.

[Parfigliano]

On 7/3/2023 at 11:30 AM, Nine of twelve said:

That would hardly cut payroll at all. We would still have to pay out his contract, with a slight contribution from the first team to pick him up on waivers.

Trade......if anyone would take him