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Judge contract = ceiling for Correa deal?


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Correa while a top tier SS, the other contracts that are being given out and accepted is a good thing for Twins. While expensive they aren't breaking the bank and our original 3 year deal could be viewed as a slight overpay for his talents.  Twins being the Twins, as Correa lingers and others drop off the board, Boras is the agent that will slow play the timing to maximize value for a club to have to pay.  That's why you would have an agent like Boras and why he is so damn successful.  Correa isn't Judge and no way should come close to that ceiling of a contract.  $30MM is his ceiling and that is is higher than his worth.  

Annually Boegarts - $25.4MM & Turner $27.2MM for their new deals.  Some view them as better than Correa without the scandal baggage as well. I would offer Dansby annually money between the two already signed and then get aggressive with Pitching needs.  Let Giants overpay for Correa and give Correa a deadline to say yes to what you have offered.  Letting it linger only hurts the Twins and Boras wouldn't care if he slow plays a team that gets hamstrung on making future moves by the tactic.  

Go Twins, make some moves already

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1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

10/$300 million should be the ceiling for Correa. What I don't know is if Correa/Boras communicated a solid figure in November or whether this is a game of one-ups-man-ship to the end.  Would a 10/$300M offer have been accepted in October?

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Seager is the contract Boras is trying to beat. 10 years $325M. The Twins already spent $35M on Correa so 9 years $290M would match that number and 10 years $300M would be better than what Seager did last year.

I think the only contract Correa would've accepted before hitting the market was 10/326+. He wouldn't have wanted to sign before hitting the market and seeing if he could beat Seager. I don't think Correa is giving the Twins any discount because they paid him 35 last year. He wants a contract that says 10/326 on it. I don't know if he gets there, but that's what he wants.

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3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the only contract Correa would've accepted before hitting the market was 10/326+. He wouldn't have wanted to sign before hitting the market and seeing if he could beat Seager. I don't think Correa is giving the Twins any discount because they paid him 35 last year. He wants a contract that says 10/326 on it. I don't know if he gets there, but that's what he wants.

Yeah I tend to agree and now with Bogaerts going to SD he can create a bidding war with SF, Chicago and the Twins.  I don't think he gets Judge money but Boras has put him in a good position to be the highest paid shortstop in the game. 

I don't know what the Twins plans for future payrolls are but if 130M is close to their max paying 35M per year to one player for ten years is probably fine short term (5 years or so) but after that it likely means not being able to sign some of the teams developed players that turn into stars or even very good players.

I get the pressure to get Correa as they paid a price to get Gray, Mahle and to some extent Maeda and Paddock but I don't think that is enough pitching to compete in the playoffs and last year having Correa led to an under .500 team.  Not sure the Twins "need" to take on that kind of risk but I know they really, really like the player and Correa enjoyed his time in Minnesota so who knows maybe the Twins are all in no matter what?

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2 hours ago, Mark G said:

Does baseball even have ceilings anymore?  It feels as though we are in an open air stadium when it comes to player salaries.  We always know where the floor is, but I lost sight of the ceiling long ago.  

Well said Mark...

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21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the only contract Correa would've accepted before hitting the market was 10/326+. He wouldn't have wanted to sign before hitting the market and seeing if he could beat Seager. I don't think Correa is giving the Twins any discount because they paid him 35 last year. He wants a contract that says 10/326 on it. I don't know if he gets there, but that's what he wants.

I don't see the Twins going 10 years.  I don't disagree with your assessment at all on what he wants.   

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11 minutes ago, Dman said:

I don't know what the Twins plans for future payrolls are but if 130M is close to their max paying 35M per year to one player for ten years is probably fine short term (5 years or so) but after that it likely means not being able to sign some of the teams developed players that turn into stars or even very good players.

If the Twins payroll is still $130M five years from now, then it might as well be $40M. The only way they could win with a payroll that low is to develop their entire pitching staff from within.

The Padres play in a smaller market than the Twins.

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6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If the Twins payroll is still $130M five years from now, then it might as well be $40M. The only way they could win with a payroll that low is to develop their entire pitching staff from within.

The Padres play in a smaller market than the Twins.

All I have to go is what they have paid in the past. Last years 135M was the highest payroll they have ever had.  Maybe that moves higher over time maybe not but right now they are just under the middle of the pack in MLB salary spending so they should be able to compete with bottom half of teams. Tougher to deal with teams that have the ability to spend 100M more though..

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54 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Padres play in a smaller market than the Twins.

I'm not diminishing how the Padres are embarrassing the rest of mid- and small-market baseball right now (I love it) but San Diego is not a smaller market than the Twins.

First, the Padres have no local competition in their market. They're a one-sport town now.

Second, the population of the San Diego metro is almost identical to the TC metro. Sure, Minnesota has some fringe population in ND/SD but that's hardly worth mentioning in the grand scheme of things, particularly when discussing discretionary spending.

Third, surrounding Petco are massive real estate developments... all owned by the Padres.

Fourth, the TC metro has one of the lowest cable subscription rates in the country. That really hurts the Twins in comparison to how most teams generate revenue now.

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10 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm not diminishing how the Padres are embarrassing the rest of mid- and small-market baseball right now (I love it) but San Diego is not a smaller market than the Twins.

First, the Padres have no local competition in their market. They're a one-sport town now.

Second, the population of the San Diego metro is almost identical to the TC metro. Sure, Minnesota has some fringe population in ND/SD but that's hardly worth mentioning in the grand scheme of things, particularly when discussing discretionary spending.

Third, surrounding Petco are massive real estate developments... all owned by the Padres.

Fourth, the TC metro has one of the lowest cable subscription rates in the country. That really hurts the Twins in comparison to how most teams generate revenue now.

They're definitely not a larger market

List of television stations in North America by media market - Wikipedia

Twin Cities #14

San Diego #27

San Diego is a 1 sport town now because the NFL and NBA both abandoned it as too small of a market.

Maybe the TC metro has low cable subscription rates because the Twins are unavailable on basic cable.

The Padres may be doing a much better job of capturing their market than the Twins but they're definitely starting from a disadvantage. St. Louis is another team with a smaller market than the Twins who is doing better at earning revenue despite that disadvantage.

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7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They're definitely not a larger market

List of television stations in North America by media market - Wikipedia

Twin Cities #14

San Diego #27

San Diego is a 1 sport town now because the NFL and NBA both abandoned it as too small of a market.

Maybe the TC metro has low cable subscription rates because the Twins are unavailable on basic cable.

The Padres may be doing a much better job of capturing their market than the Twins but they're definitely starting from a disadvantage. St. Louis is another team with a smaller market than the Twins who is doing better at earning revenue despite that disadvantage.

Listen, I lived in SD for almost a decade. The Chargers and Clippers didn't leave because SD was "too small of a market", the Chargers left because the city of SD refused to hand them a brand new stadium and the Clippers left 40 years ago because Los Angeles is right there. The Clippers were barely a San Diego franchise at all, they lasted about half a decade and the market never really warmed to them. Had the franchise stuck around as the NBA blew up in the late 80s, they might still be a San Diego team. And the owner was Donald ****ing Sterling, one of the worst owners in modern sports history.

And the cable subscription rates for the TC have been low for decades now. I remember talking about these numbers in the early 2000s. The Twins have very little or nothing to do with subscription rates.

San Diego is roughly parallel to the Twin Cities in market size. What they lose in overall population they make up with sheer wealth of population and massive real estate holdings. Right now, the Twins are dealing with a really bad TV contract that expires after this season while San Diego just signed a massive contract. One team is working through a legacy contract while the other is reaping the rewards of a new contract.

Will that gap close in the next couple of years? I hope so but I'm not exactly holding my breath.

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No No & No to Correa and that price tag.

We have Lewis at SS for crying out loud.

He showed last year that he had become a big league hitter! If not for Correa at SS, the Twins would never have attempted to play Lewis out of position because they were desperate to keep his bat in the lineup.

Cost them $35M & potentially ended the career of a budding star at SS.

Sign a left handed power hitting OF with speed and defense. That & 1B are the biggest needs. Fill those spots with high quality players and it doesn't matter who plays SS.

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3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Listen, I lived in SD for almost a decade. The Chargers and Clippers didn't leave because SD was "too small of a market", the Chargers left because the city of SD refused to hand them a brand new stadium and the Clippers left 40 years ago because Los Angeles is right there. The Clippers were barely a San Diego franchise at all, they lasted about half a decade and the market never really warmed to them. Had the franchise stuck around as the NBA blew up in the late 80s, they might still be a San Diego team. And the owner was Donald ****ing Sterling, one of the worst owners in modern sports history.

The Twin Cities lost the North Stars and the Lakers. The NHL and NBA came back because the market was too good to pass up.

The Twins are a mid-market team acting like a mid-market team. They did a terrible job negotiating their cable deal (Victory Sports anyone?) but they got their shiny new stadium and land to develop around it. The bottom line is the Padres care more about winning and the Twins care more about making money. I am glad the Twins haven't gone with the Oakland / Pittsburgh strategy of making a ton of money by slashing the payroll to the minimum.

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I live in Pittsburgh and the Pirates are a minor league caliber team playing in a major league stadium.  Owner cares about bottom line as a business and has no desire to invest in the team for a championship level competitor. Hell he really doesn't care if they play .500 baseball as long as he makes his money.  The Pirates Fan has a window of mid-June to late July each year where a fan may care (Hockey if the Penguins are in playoffs covers the start of the season and Steeler with training camp and actual season covers the backend).  

Fun stadium to watch a baseball game when a really good team comes to town.  Other than that, $16 for a 16 oz beer and $5 hotdog aren't worth it.  The seats prices are pretty fair and they run some specials, but they only get maybe 1/3rd in attendance each night.  Each year the running joke is they start a new 5 year plan on competitiveness.  They never make it to year 2 of the plan.

 

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Do you guys want to know what is happening???? Because I can pretty well tell ya. ?

Correa wants 10-12 years and around 300-350 million. Twins are offering 10/250 ish with club options possibly, opt outs after 3 years, deferred money, or with riders in the contract that if he meets such and such he could make up to his 350 or whatever he wants, all kinds of weird stuff in order to protect themselves. If they have offered 10-325ish straight up, he'd be here already and everyone knows it. 

Expect the deal if he signs here to have something weird about it, opt outs, escalators, performance bonuses, deferred money, something. I can even see them giving him some other kinds of assurances as it relates to construction of the roster(We wouldn't hear about that publicly)

Twins flat out do not want to afford a straight up 300 million dollar deal. I just don't see any way that they do that. 

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