Byron Buxton and the Trout timeline

[kab21]

Buxton does not have the best features of both Upton brother. Justin has 70-80 power and he had it as a rookie. I agree though that Buxton is a more complete player than BJ.

[TRex]

I really think you have a problem with the whole 'years of age' thing. Both Upton brothers were born in August, and were within 3 weeks of turning 20 when they debuted in the majors. In addition, BJ Upton was only 17 when he graduated high school and got drafted. Buxton was 18 when he graduated and was drafted, there is nothing you can do about it. The Upton brothers both started in low A ball the year AFTER they were drafted, just like Buxton. And BJ Upton didn't necessarily 'bounce back and forth' to the minors, he spent more time in the minors AFTER his debut than he did before (240 games).

 

I get that YOU want him on a faster track than any prospect in history, and you are entitled to have any opinion you want. However, all you have been doing is pointing to other's progressions, and not telling us why Buxton should go faster. What do you know or have you read that justifies this?

[gunnarthor]

Incidentally, KLaw agrees with the Twins plan to let Buxton stay down and see the league again:

[h=6]Ian (OK)[/h]

 

How long would you keep Buxton in low A? Let the league get a second shot at him (Twins plan apparently).

[h=6]Klaw (2:01 PM)

[/h]

 

Yes, make him go around the league twice.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Are we still concerned with the "slow promotion Twins" at this point?

 

Because last time I checked, Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia are in Minnesota.

 

Buxton will be here when they feel he's ready... Which will probably be relatively soon if he continues blistering baseball all over the stadium.

[nicksaviking]

Are we still concerned with the "slow promotion Twins" at this point?

 

Because last time I checked, Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia are in Minnesota.

 

Buxton will be here when they feel he's ready... Which will probably be relatively soon if he continues blistering baseball all over the stadium.

 

I agree and feel that the Twins are not at this point delaying promotions for service time issues as they appeared to do in the past, but to be fair, Arcia really had no business being in AA at the end of last year. He surely deserved to be in Rochester at minimum but wasn't, likely due to the Twins throwing New Britain a bone by letting them keep their best player for the playoff run. If I lived in Conneticut I might feel differently, but I don't, so I'm not a fan of keeping the youngsters down for this particular reason.

 

It possibly would not have made a difference, but perhaps Hicks would not be struggling at the MLB level had he gotten 20 games at Rochester late last season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I agree and feel that the Twins are not at this point delaying promotions for service time issues as they appeared to do in the past, but to be fair, Arcia really had no business being in AA at the end of last year. He surely deserved to be in Rochester at minimum but wasn't, likely due to the Twins throwing New Britain a bone by letting them keep their best player for the playoff run. If I lived in Conneticut I might feel differently, but I don't, so I'm not a fan of keeping the youngsters down for this particular reason.

 

It possibly would not have made a difference, but perhaps Hicks would not be struggling at the MLB level had he gotten 20 games at Rochester late last season.

 

I don't think they did anything wrong with Arcia. He only received 299 PAs with New Britain last season and started the season in Ft Myers. By the time they were considering a move, it was probably late enough in the season where they said "Meh, why bother?" with the expectation that he would start the following season in Rochester.

 

If Arcia garnered 400+ PAs at a level last season, I might agree that he was promoted too slowly. But when he doesn't even accumulate 300 PAs after making one of the most significant level jumps in the minor leagues, I don't have any problems with how they handled him last season.

[jokin]

Buxton does not have the best features of both Upton brother. Justin has 70-80 power and he had it as a rookie. I agree though that Buxton is a more complete player than BJ.

 

The early knock on Buxton was that he might be only be a 45-55 power guy, he apparently had a hitch in his power swing. That is currently shaping up to be an assessment that may have to be amended. Buck's current ISO rate is .264 with a .632 SLG. By contrast, Justin Upton had a .151 ISO with a .413 SLG at Class A. His rookie year with the D-Backs 2 years later, Upton had a .213 ISO with a .463 SLG. Of course, Buxton is bound to regress down a bit from his current power rate---But--- Imagine a reassessment upgrade of Buxton's power potential.... with better plate discipline than Justin Upton. Both players have a similar frame and height. Buxton will certainly gain 15 pounds of man muscles in the near future to match Upton's current weight of 205#s. Does anyone really think that Buxton DOESN'T have a shot at being a, at least occasionally, 30-30 guy?

[jokin]

I don't think they did anything wrong with Arcia. He only received 299 PAs with New Britain last season and started the season in Ft Myers. By the time they were considering a move, it was probably late enough in the season where they said "Meh, why bother?" with the expectation that he would start the following season in Rochester.

 

If Arcia garnered 400+ PAs at a level last season, I might agree that he was promoted too slowly. But when he doesn't even accumulate 300 PAs after making one of the most significant level jumps in the minor leagues, I don't have any problems with how they handled him last season.

 

Why not a September call-up? Seems like a misassessment unless Arcia was injured.

[jokin]

Are we still concerned with the "slow promotion Twins" at this point?

 

Because last time I checked, Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia are in Minnesota.

 

Buxton will be here when they feel he's ready... Which will probably be relatively soon if he continues blistering baseball all over the stadium.

 

I'd settle for the 2 year time frame of the aforementioned players, the Upton's or Trout/ Machado.

[Mike Sixel]

Are we still concerned with the "slow promotion Twins" at this point?

 

Because last time I checked, Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia are in Minnesota.

 

Buxton will be here when they feel he's ready... Which will probably be relatively soon if he continues blistering baseball all over the stadium.

 

I'm not yet convinced. They traded two CFers in the offseason, I don't think they had a choice other than Hicks that was realistic. Let's see how fast Sano, Rosario, Gibson, Buxton move up before drawing any conclusions.

 

And, Arcia is here because of an injury, not because they wanted him here at the beginning of the year. So far, he appears to be deserving of being here. I had no problem with him in the minors to start the year, they need to see what Parmalee can/cannot do over some time (which they should have given him last year).

[jokin]

I really think you have a problem with the whole 'years of age' thing. Both Upton brothers were born in August, and were within 3 weeks of turning 20 when they debuted in the majors. In addition, BJ Upton was only 17 when he graduated high school and got drafted. Buxton was 18 when he graduated and was drafted, there is nothing you can do about it. The Upton brothers both started in low A ball the year AFTER they were drafted, just like Buxton. And BJ Upton didn't necessarily 'bounce back and forth' to the minors, he spent more time in the minors AFTER his debut than he did before (240 games).

 

I get that YOU want him on a faster track than any prospect in history, and you are entitled to have any opinion you want. However, all you have been doing is pointing to other's progressions, and not telling us why Buxton should go faster. What do you know or have you read that justifies this?

 

Actually, between 2004 and 2007, BJ Upton did bounce back and forth, regardless of your own definition of "bouncing." The larger point in the matter, it hasn't hurt Upton's long-term career path by the Rays aggressive fast-tracking of him.

 

See other posts I have made recently, citing his stats and expert evaluations. I'm not alone in this assessment that Buxton is putting up the numbers and has passed the eye-test with his skill-set.

[cmathewson]

FWIW, several Twins officials have said he is on the fast track, as is Sano. The last time I heard this much noise about a prospect being on the fast track, it was Joe Mauer, who reached the majors at 21. But he was a catcher, so, presumably, he needed more time to learn his craft.

 

I could see both Buxton and Sano up before they reach their 21st birthday. Not sure either will be be on the Trout or Upton time line. I sort of doubt it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd settle for the 2 year time frame of the aforementioned players, the Upton's or Trout/ Machado.

 

I don't think I'll ever understand their lack of September call-ups last season. Bizarre.

[jokin]

Not sure either will be be on the Trout or Upton time line. I sort of doubt it.

 

Really out on a limb with that last prediction, Christy!

[nicksaviking]

If Arcia garnered 400+ PAs at a level last season, I might agree that he was promoted too slowly. But when he doesn't even accumulate 300 PAs after making one of the most significant level jumps in the minor leagues, I don't have any problems with how they handled him last season.

 

Arcia only jumped one level last year, I guess I wouldn't consider that too significant.

 

And again, I don't think any delay is service time related at this point, particularly because Arcia only recieved 81 PA at Beloit in 2011 and I'll bet no one can find a HS bat who spent less time at Low A for the Twins in this century. He then got promoted to Ft. Myers after only 235 PA in 2012. Because of this evidence, I feel the Twins made their decision to keep Arcia and Hicks at New Britain because of the affiliate's playoff run.

 

You said you don't think the Twins did anyting wrong with Arcia last year which is true. But I'd wager you also wouldn't have have found fault had both Hicks and Arcia been moved to Rochester at the end of the year to get their feet wet.

[jokin]

Excellent points, Nick. Seth Stohs confirmed in another thread what we all know. Considerations other than the best individual developmental career paths always come into play with Twins prospects.

[launchingthrees]

I'm more pessimistic on the twins chances in 2013/2014 than most so I tend to prefer a more cautious approach shooting for a 2015/2016 callup.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You said you don't think the Twins did anyting wrong with Arcia last year which is true. But I'd wager you also wouldn't have have found fault had both Hicks and Arcia been moved to Rochester at the end of the year to get their feet wet.

 

No, I wouldn't have had an issue either way. It was a borderline move and I can see the merit of either decision.

[ThePuck]

For the people who were dead set against Hicks skipping AAA and making the big club out of ST: Where the rage about Arcia being brought up with almost no time in AAA? Where's the rage about the extra year of control lost?

[ashbury]

For the people who were dead set against Hicks skipping AAA and making the big club out of ST: Where the rage about Arcia being brought up with almost no time in AAA? Where's the rage about the extra year of control lost?

 

The difference might be that Hicks's minor league numbers didn't suggest he could step right into the majors and immediately be league-average, while Arcia put up better numbers (and/or at tougher levels) at similar ages.

[ThePuck]

The difference might be that Hicks's minor league numbers didn't suggest he could step right into the majors and immediately be league-average, while Arcia put up better numbers (and/or at tougher levels) at similar ages.

 

The complaint from many was about the idea of prospects skipping AAA (and how, as many put it, it almost never works) and losing a year of control (the money issue).

[drivlikejehu]

For the people who were dead set against Hicks skipping AAA and making the big club out of ST: Where the rage about Arcia being brought up with almost no time in AAA? Where's the rage about the extra year of control lost?

 

Who was "raging" over Hicks? It's just a question of smart management- something the Twins often don't practice. Arcia didn't start the season in the Majors, so the Twins didn't lose any years of control (though they may have to pay him more in the 6th year).

 

I'm not worried about Buxton being held back. MLB organizations often jump prospects from AA to the Majors with little or no AAA time, and if Buxton keeps playing well there's no doubt he starts next year at AA.

[Brock Beauchamp]

For the people who were dead set against Hicks skipping AAA and making the big club out of ST: Where the rage about Arcia being brought up with almost no time in AAA? Where's the rage about the extra year of control lost?

 

The difference is that Arcia has never given any reason to question his ability to move up a level.

 

Hicks spent two years at AA. Arcia spent three months in AA at a younger age and outperformed Hicks with the bat (by a pretty healthy margin).

 

And then Oswaldo went to AAA and put up video game numbers.

[gunnarthor]

Arcia didn't start the season in the Majors, so the Twins didn't lose any years of control (though they may have to pay him more in the 6th year).

 

That's not how it works. Arcia stills needs about 10 or so days in the minors for the Twins to have that extra year.

[Ncgo4]

Looks like Buxton is finally getting the slump we all kind of expected. He's hitting .250 for May with more than 10 K's.

[ThePuck]

Who was "raging" over Hicks? It's just a question of smart management- something the Twins often don't practice. Arcia didn't start the season in the Majors, so the Twins didn't lose any years of control (though they may have to pay him more in the 6th year).

 

I'm not worried about Buxton being held back. MLB organizations often jump prospects from AA to the Majors with little or no AAA time, and if Buxton keeps playing well there's no doubt he starts next year at AA.

 

-Um lots of people.

-Unless Arcia goes back down for awhile, they will lose the extra year.

[kab21]

The early knock on Buxton was that he might be only be a 45-55 power guy, he apparently had a hitch in his power swing. That is currently shaping up to be an assessment that may have to be amended. Buck's current ISO rate is .264 with a .632 SLG. By contrast, Justin Upton had a .151 ISO with a .413 SLG at Class A. His rookie year with the D-Backs 2 years later, Upton had a .213 ISO with a .463 SLG. Of course, Buxton is bound to regress down a bit from his current power rate---But--- Imagine a reassessment upgrade of Buxton's power potential.... with better plate discipline than Justin Upton. Both players have a similar frame and height. Buxton will certainly gain 15 pounds of man muscles in the near future to match Upton's current weight of 205#s. Does anyone really think that Buxton DOESN'T have a shot at being a, at least occasionally, 30-30 guy?

 

I don't think you are understanding me. Justin Upton has absolutely ridiculous power. Like top 5 raw power in the majors and it was there his rookie year. I saw him hit a line drive off of a 20 ft high batter's eye (in play) in spring training and he almost got thrown out at 2nd base because it came back to the CF'er so fast. I don't care what stats you look up from the minors but Buxton does not compare to Justin's raw power and never will. There is also no way that Justin weighs 205 lbs currently.

 

He should have BJ's power potential and body type but there is absolutely no way that he compares to Justin Upton from a power standpoint.

[Oxtung]

For the people who were dead set against Hicks skipping AAA and making the big club out of ST: Where the rage about Arcia being brought up with almost no time in AAA? Where's the rage about the extra year of control lost?

 

First off many of us did "rage" about Arcia being called up. However, it was completely different circumstances than Hicks. Arcia was killing it at AAA, and was only supposed to be up for a couple of days, before going back to AAA. Instead his injury replacement stint has lasted much longer than expected and suddenly he is OPSing .892 which is tops on the team. Do I still wish we could earn that extra year of control? Yes. I think Oz will slump at some point and get sent down. Each step of his journey (other than his original 2 day injury replacement) has been logical.

 

On the other hand nothing about the 'Aaron Hicks is our opening day starter' scenario seemed that logical. The only thing he had going for him was his Spring Training numbers.

 

Put the two together and I think that's why there is a difference between the "extra year" fervor.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Every time I say something negative about Buxton he proves me wrong.

 

3 for 20 in the last 5 games. He sucks.

[drjim]

If truth be told, Buxton actually compares well with the best features of both Upton brothers. And BOTH Upton brothers were called up to their major league teams as 19 year-olds. Even the extremely frugal Rays put their Upton brother on the fast track. As for the Twins? Well, they admit their prospect is better than at least one Upton, and they'll let Buxton "dictate" his promotion--- but his "dictation" to this point has proven to make his promotion "not imminent."

 

Got it, Mike!

 

Small point but Upton was promoted agressively by a different regime than the one currently in charge. It was probably fun to see him in the majors that young but it took 4 years for him to stay up for good, that probably isn't an ideal development track.