Byron Buxton and the Trout timeline

[jokin]

Byron Buxton is making a mockery of Midwest League stat-keeping over his first 17 games played:

 

BA: .419 (First)

OBP: .526 (First)

SLG: .694 (First)

OPS: .1220 (First, obviously)

 

Putting things into "Trout-spective", Mike Trout played 86 games for, coincidentally enough, Cedar Rapids, over parts of 2 seasons, all before he turned 19. Here is his slash line for Low-Single A ball:

 

.358/.452/.514/.966

 

Buxton turns 19 and a Half on June 18, the same day as the Midwest League All Star Game. If he continues his ridiculous batting numbers above the "Trout Line", is it really worth it to keep him in Cedar Rapids, or maybe move him up to A+ after 50 games or so (end of May), or even sooner? If he continues what he's doing with the bat, what more can be gained by holding him back? Could he very well be capable of advancing all the way to AA before the end of the year? (BTW- There's a 29 year old journeyman "blocking" him in CF in New Britain right now!!!)

[jorgenswest]

I would love to see Sano, Buxton and Rosario in New Britain by the end of the year.

 

Once in AA, they are knocking on the door.

[lightfoot789]

Sano Goes Yard and Buxton Goes Yard - These two are going to be very special players for the MN Twins in 2+ years. Buxton is a very special talent. Can't wait to get to CR and watch his rise.

[jokin]

I would love to see Sano, Buxton and Rosario in New Britain by the end of the year.

 

Once in AA, they are knocking on the door.

 

There are no legitimate MLB starting-level prospects blocking them at their positions in New Britain (Beresford maybe a ML UTIL IF? Maybe.)

 

It sure seems like things are setting up nicely for just this scenario if the Twins are willing to pull the trigger(s). This could mean potential call-ups beginning as early as September, and definitely some time on the MLB active roster in 2014 for at least one or more of them.

[Ncgo4]

The Cedar Rapids Gazette reported that Twins Farm Director, Brad Steil, was at the game last night. He certainly got an eye full. They said the HR was out of the park onto the street and bounced onto the roof of a house across the street. Oh, maybe a little power.

[drivlikejehu]

Buxton is off to a great start but he is not going to play in New Britain this year. There's a very good chance neither Sano nor Rosario will either. But, all three could start at NB next year, which is still plenty fast.

[jokin]

Buxton is off to a great start but he is not going to play in New Britain this year. There's a very good chance neither Sano nor Rosario will either. But, all three could start at NB next year, which is still plenty fast.

 

The previous poster is presenting evidence that it could easily justify why it could/should go faster- if Buxton is on a Trout Trajectory, he should/could move up the fastest of the 3 given he doesn't have the defensive learning-curve limitations of Sano and Rosario. If these 3 guys continue their dominance, there really is no reason not to move them along. Starting out with their first experience at New Britain being held off until next year strikes me as foolish. They need to be major-league ready by 2015, holding back players who have mastered a level won't help attain that goal.

 

The Cedar Rapids Gazette reported that Twins Farm Director, Brad Steil, was at the game last night. He certainly got an eye full. They said the HR was out of the park onto the street and bounced onto the roof of a house across the street. Oh, maybe a little power.

[Mike Sixel]

I still think he's in low A until the minor league all star game, when he moves up to FTM for the rest of the year. What happens in 2014 will depend on the 2nd half of this year.

[TRex]

Any chance he is chosen to play in the Future's Game ala Trout in 2010?

 

Or perhaps they will hold him back for Future's Game next year. That way he gets to play at Target Field ( ;)and they can save money by not having to fly him back to the minors;) )!

[ThePuck]

The Twins are not the Angels. IMO, we shouldn't be figuring where our prospects will play based on what other teams do with their shining prospects. It's a fun exercise, but I don't think it means much.

[Joe A. Preusser]

It's still early, but assuming he continues to dominate, is there any value whatsoever in letting a kid continue to destroy a level? I mean, I can go 16-0 and have Christian Ponder throw for 7000 yards on the easiest setting of Maddon, but is that really making me a better Maddon player? The Org needs to continue to challenge these kids.

[DaveW]

There is no real need to rush him at this level, the last thing you wanna do is throw him in AA and have him struggle a bit. He will be in AA plenty next year and will be ready for 2015.

[DaveW]

Also Buxton is answers 1. 2 and 3 to why you NEVER draft for need and always best player available.

[kab21]

Do you really consider 2 levels per year too slow?

 

Is your intent that Buxton is competing for a CF job next spring?

[cmathewson]

Reading between the lines of the Mientievicz interview on 1500, he expects Sano and Rosario to be in New Britain by midyear. I think it's a stretch to expect Buxton to jump two levels. But I would be shocked if he's not promoted to Fort Myers for the second half of the year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I hesitate to compare him to Trout yet, as it is still a small sample, but it's obviously a very encouraging start. Even if Buxton comes back to earth a little, if he shows solid defense and a reasonable K rate (Sano's two big flaws right now), I think a promotion to high-A will be warranted at midseason. If his number continue at video game crazy levels, obviously he could be promoted sooner, and if he continued raking after the promotion, hopefully they would re-evaluate his timeline.

 

While the Twins have been very conservative about promotions, they also haven't had a guy posting numbers quite like this for awhile (if ever). Mauer was very good but wasn't showing power, Sano has flaws, etc. It would be great to finally witness a meteoric rise through the minors! Make it happen, Byron!

 

(Also, does Buxton have an official nickname yet? Hopefully not "Buxie"?)

[Joe A. Preusser]

There is no real need to rush him at this level, the last thing you wanna do is throw him in AA and have him struggle a bit. He will be in AA plenty next year and will be ready for 2015.

 

I think a developing player needs to struggle a little bit to become a true major leaguer. You can't become a leader in your field without first growing into that position. And you can't grow without adversity.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Also Buxton is answers 1. 2 and 3 to why you NEVER draft for need and always best player available.

 

I could not agree more.

[Joe A. Preusser]

[quote name=

(Also, does Buxton have an official nickname yet? Hopefully not "Buxie"?)[/quote]

 

Please not Buxie. How about Bux?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Actually, I seem to recall hearing "Buck" somewhere, not sure though.

[Han Joelo]

Pretty sure the nickname is "Buck"

[2wins87]

I think his nickname is Buck, maybe young buck--he's quite a bit younger than the rapper--or something along those lines.

 

50 games would be about 225 plate appearances. That seems like about enough if he's still dominating low-A, I'd probably let him get between 250 and 300, as long as he doesn't hit a serious rough patch.

 

Seeing more than two levels seems pretty fast, but I'd hope that he'll be starting out in AA next year, with a late 2014 call-up to the majors a real possibility.

 

I think some people will say that the Twins are moving him too slow no matter what timetable they put him on. But they've already shown a lot of confidence in him and I think they'll move him at the right pace.

[Brandon]

If he gets promoted to A+ at the allstar break and continues to hit, and the A+ team is not likely to make the playoffs then you could promote Buxton to AA for the last 2 weeks of the season. But I think the Twins like to put the best playoff teams out on the field as the playoffs are close to a promotion as you are playing the best A+ team vs playing potentially noncompeting AA teams.

[kab21]

I think a developing player needs to struggle a little bit to become a true major leaguer. You can't become a leader in your field without first growing into that position. And you can't grow without adversity.

 

i still have no idea what you are suggesting. should he be in AA this year? As a comparison Trout didn't go to AA during the comparable season. he played 80+ games in Cedar Rapids and then 50+ games in High A. The next season he played in 90+ games in AA and was a late season callup.

 

Are you suggesting that the Twins should be more aggressive with Buxton?

 

I think the board unanimously thinks that Buxton will be called up to Ft Myers at midseason. Do you disagree with this plan?

[Seth Stohs]

As you all know, I saw Buxton's first three games in Cedar Rapids and came away immensely impressed by him. In fact, at the time, I said I would have put Buxton ahead of Sano in my rankings. Now, I say they'e 1a and 1b.

 

But, to be fair, the Twins need to be patient with Buxton and with anyone on April 25th. Consider the following statline:

 

(26-69) .377/.429/.768 with seven doubles, a triple, six home runs and 15 RBI.

Those were the stats in April of a Twins prospect in Beloit in 2011. He was a year or so older than Buxton. He wasn't a #2 overall pick like Buxton. He doesn't have Buxton's size and speed. So, please don't think I'm putting them in the same prospect category. What I'm trying to show is that April stats are great, but one month is a small sample. I do think it's important to get to face adversity and overcome it at a level too. Buxton isn't going to post a 1.200 OPS every month. If he does through the All-Star break, then absolutely move him up. But don't move him up based on three weeks.

 

The other prospect: Danny Ortiz:

 

At the end of the 2011 season, all spent in Beloit, he hit .239/.294/.391 (.685) with 33-2B, 4-3B, 10-HR.

 

He never posted another 700 OPS month. He started 2012 with a month in Beloit before moving up to Ft. Myers where he played better, and then this year, he's off to a good start in New Britain.

 

But, patience is just smart.

[Joe A. Preusser]

i still have no idea what you are suggesting. should he be in AA this year? As a comparison Trout didn't go to AA during the comparable season. he played 80+ games in Cedar Rapids and then 50+ games in High A. The next season he played in 90+ games in AA and was a late season callup.

 

 

Are you suggesting that the Twins should be more aggressive with Buxton?

 

I think the board unanimously thinks that Buxton will be called up to Ft Myers at midseason. Do you disagree with this plan?

 

Well, yes, I do think they should be more aggressive, but I really only meant there is no need to handle him with kid gloves. If he hits this well in low A, then he should go to high A. If he continues to rake at high A, then send him to NB. Maybe I'm overreacting to the Hicks situation, but I got tired to hearing how damaging his recent experience will be for him long term. There's nothing wrong with letting these prospects be (slightly) overmatched for a while. Let Buxton play against tougher competition, get knocked around a bit, open up some holes in his swing, etc. I know confidence is important, but unearned confidence is potentially even more damaging. You get better by pushing yourself against stronger competition, not by blowing out the JV team.

[Joe A. Preusser]

As you all know, I saw Buxton's first three games in Cedar Rapids and came away immensely impressed by him. In fact, at the time, I said I would have put Buxton ahead of Sano in my rankings. Now, I say they'e 1a and 1b.

 

But, to be fair, the Twins need to be patient with Buxton and with anyone on April 25th. Consider the following statline:

 

(26-69) .377/.429/.768 with seven doubles, a triple, six home runs and 15 RBI.

Those were the stats in April of a Twins prospect in Beloit in 2011. He was a year or so older than Buxton. He wasn't a #2 overall pick like Buxton. He doesn't have Buxton's size and speed. So, please don't think I'm putting them in the same prospect category. What I'm trying to show is that April stats are great, but one month is a small sample. I do think it's important to get to face adversity and overcome it at a level too. Buxton isn't going to post a 1.200 OPS every month. If he does through the All-Star break, then absolutely move him up. But don't move him up based on three weeks.

 

The other prospect: Danny Ortiz:

 

At the end of the 2011 season, all spent in Beloit, he hit .239/.294/.391 (.685) with 33-2B, 4-3B, 10-HR.

 

He never posted another 700 OPS month. He started 2012 with a month in Beloit before moving up to Ft. Myers where he played better, and then this year, he's off to a good start in New Britain.

 

But, patience is just smart.

 

And I agree with this as well. I did preface my original comment with "assuming he continues to hit..." By all means, be sure he's actually at that performance level before making decisions based on it.

[kab21]

Exactly how long does he have to continue to hit for it to be too long in CR? Is half of a season too much? I can't even tell if you're in disagreement with the accepted belief that he will be called up at midseason.

 

I actually think he could get an earlier promotion when Kepler is ready for CR. It's a convenient excuse to start player movement.

[Joe A. Preusser]

You're trying to pin me down on a timeline, I get that. I wasn't making a statement about the midseason timeline or whether Buxton specifically should be called up to AA this year. I was responding in general to the belief that we need to baby these kids along.

 

However, if it were me I would give Buxton a long look (3+ months) in AA before the year was out. Whether that means he skips high A entirely I don't know, but we will get a more accurate picture of current ability the stronger the competition he faces.

[TRex]

Obviously I started writing this a few hours ago and didn't hit refresh, but...

 

I think we mis-remember the Mike Trout time line sometimes...

 

 

He actually spent 81 games at Cedar Rapids in '10, and ONLY moved to high A for the final 50 games. He did not receive a promotion to AA, and his stats were somewhat pedestrian by CAL standards (his .821 OPS would not have ranked in the top 20).

 

He started the '11 season in AA, and played there for 91 games before making his MLB debut after the All-Star game.

 

This is the most optimistic blueprint for Buxton... so why are we discussing AA? And why are we boarding the promotion train bound for high A before 81 games (which I imagine was the MWL All Star break)?