Buck Can Bankroll His Future in Final Month

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I totally understand the David Ortizian Dread.  However, framing his injuries as "unlucky" is only honest if you choose to completely ignore the pre-2021 past.  And....well....I don't find that to be a terribly fair way to frame things.  "Conveniently selective" comes to mind.  

You can be for the gamble without selectively re-writing history.  This guy's prime, 25 year old freaky amazing athleticism has not saved him from being utterly brittle.  That is part of the equation.  It's 95% negative for the idea of an extension.  But I'll bet on the combo of that 5% discount in cost and the Hail Mary it might all come together.  As @gunnarthorsaid....they can afford to roll those dice.  But let's not pretend that we're not betting on a longshot here.

Nope, nothing to do with Ortiz, rather I think it signals a longer term rebuild than the "reset," or whatever watered down term the team prefers to use. 

What history did I rewrite? Sure, I'm not banking on him playing 150 games, but it's a gamble I'm more than willing to make because the alternatives aren't nearly as appealing.

[TheLeviathan]

49 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Nope, nothing to do with Ortiz, rather I think it signals a longer term rebuild than the "reset," or whatever watered down term the team prefers to use. 

What history did I rewrite? Sure, I'm not banking on him playing 150 games, but it's a gamble I'm more than willing to make because the alternatives aren't nearly as appealing.

I was speaking about the dozens here who insist on categorizing Buxton as merely unlucky rather than having a an established history of problems.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

The guys who were starting aren't the Plan Bs?  Or is there some particular season you're referencing?

2011. Span was the starting CF. Kubel was the starting LF. Cuddyer was the starting RF. Revere was the backup who could handle CF.

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I was speaking about the dozens here who insist on categorizing Buxton as merely unlucky rather than having a an established history of problems.

Which established, recurring injury has he had?

[gunnarthor]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

So long as you pretend Buxton's 2021 isn't massively skewing his career numbers and pretend Fangraphs doesn't exist. Assuming a 150 game played season (which Buxton will never hit)

fWAR vs. bWAR, if Buxton played 150G each season

• 2019 = 4.7 (wRC+ 111) vs. 5.2 (OPS+ 116)
• 2020 = 4.6 (wRC+ 118) vs. 8.1 (OPS +126)

Somehow, despite a pretty small jump in OPS+, Buxton's value skyrocketed in 2020 per game played if you use Baseball Reference's bWAR. It doesn't make sense, especially considering Fangraphs' UZR/150 is +15.7 in 2019 and +10.6 in 2020. Both are well within range of his career numbers which were almost always between 10-15.

Eh. Doesn't really do much to pretend that the success (or failure) you want to ignore doesn't exist. We can also pretend his 2015 didn't skew his numbers down and now he averages 5.5 WAR.

I think Buxton's one of the truly elite players in the game. A genuine HOF talent, when healthy. Since mid 2017, even with the total disaster year of 2018, Buxton has been put up a  .272/.350/.528 .879 OPS. While this year has been his high water mark, his has shown that he can put up a constant OPS in the high .800s, play pretty good defense, and steal a base or two.

You don't think he'll ever be healthy. You might be right. Baseball will be worse off for that. I think his talent is worth betting on.

[TheLeviathan]

8 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

Eh. Doesn't really do much to pretend that the success (or failure) you want to ignore doesn't exist. We can also pretend his 2015 didn't skew his numbers down and now he averages 5.5 WAR.

I think Buxton's one of the truly elite players in the game. A genuine HOF talent, when healthy. Since mid 2017, even with the total disaster year of 2018, Buxton has been put up a  .272/.350/.528 .879 OPS. While this year has been his high water mark, his has shown that he can put up a constant OPS in the high .800s, play pretty good defense, and steal a base or two.

You don't think he'll ever be healthy. You might be right. Baseball will be worse off for that. I think his talent is worth betting on.

This is a really good summation and argument for the gamble.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 8/27/2021 at 7:40 AM, TheLeviathan said:

His impact when on the field is unquestionably important.  I do wonder if the Twins' three decade long policy of not having a 4th outfielder who can play CF might be partly to blame too.

In all seriousness....when was the last time we had a CF plan B?  Even pre-Buck?

Denny Hocking? I seem to recall he was a pretty decent centerfielder in the early 2000s, though I could be very wrong about that.

edit: I looked and wow, Hocking played very little CF. I guess that isn't super surprising with Hunter on the roster. He had a lengthy streak of healthy play for a few years there.

[miller761]

If we are paying Josh Donaldson 24 million a year in the twilight of his career why can't we "reach" and sign a player like Buxton to a contract that will make him a Twin for a long time. His contract and Donaldson"s  contract would only be on the books for 1 year. After that if injuries are still a concern why can't he DH. This kind of player comes around hardly ever. I feel it is the front office's job to make this work financially and on the field. It comes down to wins and losses. We are 50 games over 500 in 5 years with Buxton in the lineup. If you tell me the Twins will be 10 games over 500 next for sure I am liking my chances for post season games.

[Dodecahedron]

On 8/26/2021 at 6:28 PM, chopper0080 said:

All of this and I would say he is still the best player on our current roster...which tells you about our roster

To be fair, he'd be the best guy on a lot of rosters.  Debatably, all of them.  

Buxton, eventually, performed as advertised.  His injuries are truly unusual.  I would say he should check himself out for Marfan Syndrome, but if that answer was determined to be yes, he'd only be screwing up his own income.

[USAFChief]

Priority 1 for the front office this offseason HAS to be getting Buxton under contract.

 

Doesn't matter the cost.  Get it done. There is NOTHING they can do this offseason more important to future wins.

Failure to do so is a fireable offense. 

[Major League Ready]

I really hope they can find acceptable terms with Buxton.  He is by far the most exciting player on the team.  However, the risk needs to be addressed.  Take out his first year because he debuted in June and also take out 2020 because of covid and he averages 80 games a year.  He has only played over 100 games once.  You can’t be a difference maker if you are not on the field.  A mid-market team paying big guaranteed money to a risky player is by no means a no-brainer.  We can take an indignant stance as fans because it’s very easy to ignore risk when you are not accountable.  Just think about the list of high profile players with contracts that have really hurt their teams for years.  It’s far from a no brainer and cost does matter.