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A conversation Baldelli and the FO need to have, and I want to mediate.


DocBauer

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Posted
48 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

The Twins have Jimmy Kerrigan and Mark Contreras

And Larnach,

If you want to be continually surprised at the FO's choices, go ahead and lump all outfielders together.

None of the guys you named have genuine CF range the way Cave does, by the scouting quick-and-dirty source I use. I'm far from a Cave apologist, but range is the primary explanation I can infer for his being treated differently.

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Posted
19 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Unless you’ve lost faith in the front office’s ability to assess talent, they’ve made it crystal clear that Nick Gordon is not a major league SS. It’s time for this narrative to die. At this point we’re advocating for Nick Punto to play every day again. I understand playing him in a down season but I have no expectation he will be anything more than filler in a down season. 

Cave is a fine 4th OF. Nothing more or less. Should he be playing for the 2021 Twins? Not in an ideal world. Kirilloff’s injured for the season. Larnach is struggling and in AAA. We’re advocating for Refsnyder? An older player than Cave? I don’t agree when he’s been ice cold since returning from injury. 

Sure, Miranda is playing really well. He can be one of the 2 call ups in September to see if his progression is for real. 

Just to be clear, I haven't the slightest idea how good or bad Gordon actually is at SS. BUT, he has continued to play it in the minors. And the Twins used him there quite a bit in the last 2 ST's. My sentiment is it's time to see how good/bad/average he can be there. NOT as a starter, but can he play there as a utility player? A few pounds of muscle and continued opportunity MIGHT show him as a decent hitter with valuable speed. Being able to play multiple spots, including SS, makes him that much more valuable, potentially. Just boggles my mind they won't let him get the opportunity despite still playing him there.

Posted
6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ah. Got it.

I predict Buxton, Kepler, and Larnach on the starting roster. Maybe Celestino. Maybe (a stretch for sure) Martin (who I think is the LF by June unless Buxton is gone, in which case he's the CF). That leaves room for one veteran back up if they want, of which lots will be available in the off season if they want one. 

My "napkin" OF has Kepler, Buxton, Larnach and Kirilloff, (who will also play 1B), and a TBD.

IMO,  Celestino has a floor as a quality 4th OF who does it all. He was rushed out of necessity but will take that experience and learn from it. I'd love to have the re-invented Rwfsnyder back on a milb deal. But despite needing a SP as our #1 addition for 2022, and Pineda back or similar, and needing a couple solid pen arms, I just can't stress enough how important I think a quality 4th OF who bats RH and can play all 3 spots is to this team. We very much need someone to give Kepler and Larnach and AK days off against a quality LH. Maybe Kepler most of all. It let's everyone play more to their strengths. I don't care if it's by trade or FA, but said player shouldn't cost very much to add and could be hugely important.

I digress a bit as it's supposed to be about questions ya'll have for Rocco and the FO.

Posted
12 hours ago, rv78 said:

Gordon got thrown into the CF position due to necessity. Buxton, Kepler, Refsnyder and Cave were hurt. Celestino failed to produce. Even tho this happened due to emergency I liked him out there better than the last 4 listed. Is the Major leagues a place to be learning a new position? No, but sometimes stuff happens. I'd much rather see his bat in the lineup verses Cave. Sorry, I just have no love for a player that only hits .179 no matter how good his defense is, and I don't think it is any better than Gordons who will only get better the more he plays CF. 

Miranda has 4 things going against him at this point. 1.Donaldson, 2.Arraez, 3.The Saints are good and playing for a title, 4.The FO. It's all about service time. If the treatment of Buxton taught us anything is that they are willing to throw players under the bus for money. You can argue, why start the clock in a lost season? Why not bring up Miranda and see what you have? What about the young pitchers? Where's the likes of Balazovic, Winder, Duran, lets look at Ryan and Woods-Richardson. Are we still playing for this year or does the future start now?

In another article I listed 19 players on the 40 man roster that the Twins could release due to being, 1.Easily replaceable. 2.Just not that good. 3.Veterans that don't fit even for a short rebuild of the roster. When half the team is expendable and you have talent waiting in the wings it only makes sense to see what they can do when the current team isn't very good. Other-wise they can have those prospects become the next Akil Baddoo and play elsewhere while they sit on their hands and wallets in wonder and bewilderment.

Liked this and a good post, but I disagree about service time. We can agree to disagree, but I truly believe the Buxton issue is old was not about service time. It was about a horrendous season and injury and protecting an investment to just let him get right. And we have heard no negativity from Buxton, or his camp, about that situation best I can recall.

I think the Twins love Miranda and rumor is they've just been waiting for him to reach that next level. He has. And I agree he is somewhat blocked at the moment. But that's a problem I wish we had more of! Falvey recently commented how much they like Miranda and just want to make sure he has time to learn some of the little things to make him successful when brought up. Judge that as you will. 

I honestly don't recall if he has to be added to the 40 man this season. I want to say he does, but can't remember correctly. If he doesn't, I don't think that would be about service time, but rather, just keeping an open spot for someone else. 

Personally, I think they are eager as hell to get the kid up here and get his feet wet and see what he can do. His versatility is a blessing as he may break in as a super-utility player. But there are a lot of moving parts before 2022 gets here. And that might include a move of Donaldson or Sano as part of the moving forward machine. 

 

Posted
12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Just to be clear, I haven't the slightest idea how good or bad Gordon actually is at SS. BUT, he has continued to play it in the minors. And the Twins used him there quite a bit in the last 2 ST's. My sentiment is it's time to see how good/bad/average he can be there. NOT as a starter, but can he play there as a utility player? A few pounds of muscle and continued opportunity MIGHT show him as a decent hitter with valuable speed. Being able to play multiple spots, including SS, makes him that much more valuable, potentially. Just boggles my mind they won't let him get the opportunity despite still playing him there.

Me too.  I am referring to not having a clue if he is adequate at SS because I have seen very little of him at SS.  The Twin's staff on the other hand have been evaluating him for years and hundreds of games.  I would hope they have seen him enough at SS in the minors and that they have the evaluation skills to determine if he is adequate to play SS as a utility player.  I think a lot of people are complaining because they want to see him play SS not because it's necessary to determine if he can play back-up SS.

Posted
12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Just to be clear, I haven't the slightest idea how good or bad Gordon actually is at SS. BUT, he has continued to play it in the minors. And the Twins used him there quite a bit in the last 2 ST's. My sentiment is it's time to see how good/bad/average he can be there. NOT as a starter, but can he play there as a utility player? A few pounds of muscle and continued opportunity MIGHT show him as a decent hitter with valuable speed. Being able to play multiple spots, including SS, makes him that much more valuable, potentially. Just boggles my mind they won't let him get the opportunity despite still playing him there.

He’s played 11 games at SS in the minors this year. 38 chances, 3 errors for a .921 fielding percentage. The dream is dead… They’ve given him plenty of time to develop there throughout his tenure with the organization. If this is a complaint, then you and others have lost faith in the FO’s ability to assess talent. 

Posted
15 hours ago, ashbury said:

If you want to be continually surprised at the FO's choices, go ahead and lump all outfielders together.

None of the guys you named have genuine CF range the way Cave does, by the scouting quick-and-dirty source I use. I'm far from a Cave apologist, but range is the primary explanation I can infer for his being treated differently.

Offense counts too, Cave has hurt the Twins a lot with his .18x average a very low OPS.

Posted
2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

He’s played 11 games at SS in the minors this year. 38 chances, 3 errors for a .921 fielding percentage. The dream is dead… They’ve given him plenty of time to develop there throughout his tenure with the organization. If this is a complaint, then you and others have lost faith in the FO’s ability to assess talent. 

He made a great play at 2B last night which speaks to range. Not every 2B could have made that play.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Offense counts too, Cave has hurt the Twins a lot with his .18x average a very low OPS.

As we saw with Arraez's play last night, I'd argue defense at critical positions is more important with a young pitching staff. Jax should have walked off that mound feeling pretty good about himself, holding his own on the road for five innings against a potent offense.

Instead, we had the pleasure of witnessing yet another Minnesota Twins trash fire in the fifth inning.

It's the front office's fault their backup plan at center was Jake Cave but he's the second-best they have right now, given that Kepler continues to not play the position.

Posted
15 hours ago, RpR said:

IF you mean Polanco at short-stop, he stunk.

Obviously we disagree rather sharply but my opinion is that Jorge Polanco had great range at SS, struggled with throws for half the 2019 season and then noticeably improved. Further he hit better than some Hall of Fame SSs like Ozzie Smith in 2019 and is hitting at a HOF level this year too.

Posted
On 8/23/2021 at 9:50 PM, DocBauer said:

But WHY does he NOT play SS at the ML level to see if he can be a viable utility option there?

Precisely this. I would have thought that if this year could teach the FO anything, it's that their seemingly-rigid thinking about whether players are ready for MLB - and at which positions they can play - should begin to open up a bit more.

Baddoo was very ready for MLB. Miranda was near a breakout year. This FO has been VERY wrong recently in terms of organizational evaluation of talent. Gordon might be just fine at SS as a fill-in. Literally no better time than now to find out. Their unwillingness to do so borders on the ridiculous - particularly when a fill-in in 2021 (and maybe beyond) will be sorely needed.

I understood playing Simmons for a while, but only as a platoon so that other Twins could learn from him. Now, trotting out Cave and Simmons and Donaldson on the left side of the diamond while keeping Gordon and Miranda from developing further is bizarre.

Posted
6 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Precisely this. I would have thought that if this year could teach the FO anything, it's that their seemingly-rigid thinking about whether players are ready for MLB - and at which positions they can play - should begin to open up a bit more.

Baddoo was very ready for MLB. Miranda was near a breakout year. This FO has been VERY wrong recently in terms of organizational evaluation of talent. Gordon might be just fine at SS as a fill-in. Literally no better time than now to find out. Their unwillingness to do so borders on the ridiculous - particularly when a fill-in in 2021 (and maybe beyond) will be sorely needed.

I understood playing Simmons for a while, but only as a platoon so that other Twins could learn from him. Now, trotting out Cave and Simmons and Donaldson on the left side of the diamond while keeping Gordon and Miranda from developing further is bizarre.

Every team passed on Miranda. Every. Single. Team. Clearly, no FO thought this was coming. Not one of them. 

Posted
13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Every team passed on Miranda. Every. Single. Team. Clearly, no FO thought this was coming. Not one of them. 

His .350 BABIP this year... nah, never mind he's just the second coming of Whit Merrifield.

Posted
17 minutes ago, a-wan said:

His .350 BABIP this year... nah, never mind he's just the second coming of Whit Merrifield.

My point was simple......this isn't an issue with the MN FO. Nothing more or less, since every FO agreed with them.

Posted
13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

My point was simple......this isn't an issue with the MN FO. Nothing more or less, since every FO agreed with them.

I was agreeing with you.

Posted
5 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

While I am not a big fan of Kepler, I completely agree with this assessment. He is a serviceable 3rd/4th OF for a contending team. His defense is such that he probably should start 70% of the time and sit the other 30% against LH pitching. He provides value such that we need to keep him going forward. To make that work the best way, we do need a RH backup outfielder who can start when Kepler sits, ideally one who can play CF when necessary. Maybe that guy is Celestino or Refsnyder next year, maybe it's an off-season free agent, but it probably isn't Larnach or Rooker. I think Larnach and Rooker will either make or not make it next year's roster depending on whether they can win a job in LF. If not, they're both better served playing in AAA, assuming in Rooker's case that we want to keep him at all.

What complicates all of this is finding a place for Kirilloff, Arraez, Donaldson, and Sano to play regularly next year. I say that assuming the Sano we will get next year is somewhat similar to the second half Sano of this year - roughly a .250/. 350-.360/.475-.500 kind of player who also strikes out 30 to 35% of the time. While that guy is not a middle of the order bat, it is worth having him here hitting 6th or 7th in the order. The issue is that Sano can only play 1B or DH, Donaldson 3B or DH (I agree that he's wasted at 1B), and Arraez 3B or 2B where we have our best player, Polanco.   

I really think that the answer is to do what they intended to do with the start this year and play Kirilloff in LF, with Sano at 1B. Donaldson's physical limitations are such that it is hard for me to see him playing more than 50 – 75 games a year at 3B. That leaves plenty of games for Arraez at 3B, and he and Donaldson can be the DH most of the days when that one is not playing 3B. We don't have to worry about leaving the DH open for Sano most games and we can even rotate a few guys through on occasion to give them a partial day off. If, on the other hand, we put Kirilloff at 1B, then we really have a logjam with the other 3 guys and all we've done is open up a spot for Larnach or Rooker, both of whom have had a chance this year to win that spot but have not been able to do so. They will get another opportunity next year at some point due to injury so it may be better for them to start next year in AAA, and in Larnach's case get some experience at that level that he hasn't had until the last couple of weeks. In Rooker's case, he's had the AAA experience, kind of/sort of did well at that level, but he hasn't shown any thing that makes me think we want to create a spot for him at the major-league level. He may be a guy that we package as part of the trade to another team that sees him as a potential breakout candidate or he may just be depth waiting for another opportunity. And, to echo many other posters, I simply don't see any basis for Cave to be on next year's team in any capacity. He should either sign a minor league deal with us as AAA depth or seek out a better opportunity elsewhere

Outstanding! Agree almost 100%!

Just a couple quick comments:

1] Agree on Kepler for about 70-80% games started as RH SP is clearly prevalent. He probably appears as a PH and/or defensive replacement another 10%-ish. It plays to his strengths. Also why I've been on my soapbox so much how that RH 4th OF is so important for 2022, whoever he might be.

But I really don't understand the obsession with Kepler hitting leadoff. 

2] Totally agree that it is silly to label Kirilloff as a 1B at this point. He's just fine as a corner OF. But he can and should continue to play some 1B. Creates opportunity and roster flexibility. And I also believe Sano is far better than he's shown the 1st of this year and think we'll see the better player we think he should be and history has generally shown he is next year. He could be so dangerous as a 6/7 hitter.

3] I think Larnach has a very good chance to be a regular starter with the Twins in 2022, albeit with a possible start in AAA. Also part of the reason AK should continue to see time at 1B. I am fully convinced from what I've seen that both guys are going to be very good. Only a question of WHEN.

4] Also agree on Donaldson about half the time at 3B and plenty of time at DH, unless he has one of those surprise seasons he's had before where his body suddenly responds well. But even still, there is room for Arraez at 3B as well as 2B and DH. We need to stop thinking that the DH spot has to be ONE GUY. AND that the DH has to be a big power bat. With as much offensive power as the 2022 team could/should have, nothing wrong with Arraez seeing time there as a tremendous tablesetter. [I also like Garver spending half days there to keep his bat in the lineup]. Even with Cruz gone, offense isn't the problem and we all know that.

5] The ONE GUY who "messes" with lineup construction is Miranda. Never a TOP prospect until now, he is someone the FO has just been waiting to tap his potential. He's done that now. His presence makes roster construction and lineups on napkins more complicated, but in a good way. You FIND a way to make it all work when you have someone that young and good and ready! And let's be honest, there is no such thing as a static 13 man player roster. There are always injuries and IL time that forces you to juggle at least another few guys in and out and up and down. It always seems to work itself out.

GREAT POST!

Posted
18 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

But I really don't understand the obsession with Kepler hitting leadoff.

League wide, slugging percentage usually goes up a little with men on base.  With Kepler, the opposite is the case.

I don't know whether that's central to their thinking, because the difference is not drastic.

It's efficient for a batter to drive himself in, though, and if they think he gets better pitches to blast when the bases are empty, kind of like when Dozier was here, I'm not opposed.

The counter argument of course is to get your best hitters more PA, and Kepler is marginal for that kind of thinking.

Posted
5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Every team passed on Miranda. Every. Single. Team. Clearly, no FO thought this was coming. Not one of them. 

Hey Mike, you are 100% correct. But he was a high selection from the previous FO. He was selected #73 which puts him as a 2nd or 3rd rounder with comp picks and the such, so forgive me if I don't have the exact round. 

And while he was OK in the early part of his career, he didn't exactly light things up. I wouldn't have drafted him rule V either. And while I dislike rumors and 2nd hand reports overall, I respect Gleeman and feel he's fairly well plugged in to things. And he has stated multiple times that when he talked to various sources of someone to watch out for, Miranda was a name that kept popping up.

To Miranda's credit, he has worked hard and taken full advantage of opportunity to grow, develop, play winter ball, etc, and start to realize his potential. NOT saying you are being dismissive of him, and you are correct other teams passed, and with good reason, but he is an early draft selection who has figured it out. Thank the baseball gods that nobody else saw this coming because we are about to reap the rewards.

 

Posted
7 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Hey Mike, you are 100% correct. But he was a high selection from the previous FO. He was selected #73 which puts him as a 2nd or 3rd rounder with comp picks and the such, so forgive me if I don't have the exact round. 

And while he was OK in the early part of his career, he didn't exactly light things up. I wouldn't have drafted him rule V either. And while I dislike rumors and 2nd hand reports overall, I respect Gleeman and feel he's fairly well plugged in to things. And he has stated multiple times that when he talked to various sources of someone to watch out for, Miranda was a name that kept popping up.

To Miranda's credit, he has worked hard and taken full advantage of opportunity to grow, develop, play winter ball, etc, and start to realize his potential. NOT saying you are being dismissive of him, and you are correct other teams passed, and with good reason, but he is an early draft selection who has figured it out. Thank the baseball gods that nobody else saw this coming because we are about to reap the rewards.

 

I'm saying the FO leaving him unprotected is not an indictment of them, given every FO agreed. Nothing more or less. It's great what he's done! Hopefully proving every FO wrong. 

Posted

DocBauer is right that it's Miranda that makes next year's lineup construction tough. I'd love to see him up this year so we can see where he is with respect to MLB pitching. I know that St. Paul has a chance to be AAA champs and that he's their best hitter. I also think that there really is value in having a guy like Miranda be in clutch situations in the AAA playoffs because that can translate to MLB clutch situations. Still, this is a year to find out what you have. That includes position players as well as pitchers. Let's get Miranda up in September and get him 75-80m MLB at bats. We NEED to know if he's ready or needs to start next year in AAA.  

Posted
7 minutes ago, ashbury said:

League wide, slugging percentage usually goes up a little with men on base.  With Kepler, the opposite is the case.

I don't know whether that's central to their thinking, because the difference is not drastic.

It's efficient for a batter to drive himself in, though, and if they think he gets better pitches to blast when the bases are empty, kind of like when Dozier was here, I'm not opposed.

The counter argument of course is to get your best hitters more PA, and Kepler is marginal for that kind of thinking.

Nice! And smart. I expect nothing less. :)

I think the Dozier comp is very accurate. It's pretty awesome to have someone starting a game, or an inning, with the potential to make a splash. And maybe, just maybe, as you alluded to, said batter just seems to produce better in those situations. 

Maybe I'm just too old school in my approach, and a bopper at the top is great....I reflect to Boggs, Downing, and a few others...but I still believe getting on base and being a quality hitter before your PRIME hitters just makes more sense.

I remember Rocco speaking about the way too soon departed Bell insisting to Rocco to bat Arraez #1 all the time, regardless. It seemed like they did that early in the year before falling in to old habits.

And believe me, I get the temptation to have as good of a hitter like Arraez hitting 5-6-7 to be clutch and set the table for other hitters. But old school or not, modern baseball or not, you STILL want to wear our pitchers and get runners on base before your best RBI and power bats come up! 

Arraez should ALWAYS be #1. IMO, when in the lineup. Kepler should slide down in the lineup, with Sano, to utilize their XB ability. Sometimes, even a deep fly ball can score a damn run. Right?

I should have included the use of Arraez in my proposed Q&A with Rocco and the FO. I think you will agree with me on these points that you helped bring up.

Posted
22 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

DocBauer is right that it's Miranda that makes next year's lineup construction tough. I'd love to see him up this year so we can see where he is with respect to MLB pitching. I know that St. Paul has a chance to be AAA champs and that he's their best hitter. I also think that there really is value in having a guy like Miranda be in clutch situations in the AAA playoffs because that can translate to MLB clutch situations. Still, this is a year to find out what you have. That includes position players as well as pitchers. Let's get Miranda up in September and get him 75-80m MLB at bats. We NEED to know if he's ready or needs to start next year in AAA.  

BTW, just call me Doc. Lol

I honestly can't remember if Miranda has to be protected or not this offseason. And we're NOT talking service time! We are talking about protecting enough young talent, primarily pitchers, that if he doesn't have to be protected, I can see logical reasons to let him rake for the new AAA affiliate in playoff contention and just bring him to ST as an invite.

Milb is about developing ML talent. Period! And this is Miranda's BREAKOUT year. I hate to say it as his loss from St Paul could mess with their playoffs, and his addition to the 40 man could cost us a protected player/pitcher, but he needs to be up to get exposure and get his feet wet for the future. You can only keep lightening in a bottle for so long. 

Posted
7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Clearly, no FO thought this was coming. Not one of them. 

I'm just going to say it again - no FO had a better look at him. Not anywhere close to the access the Twins had. And they didn't see what he was about to become. That's signals a potential problem.

Posted
45 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

but he needs to be up to get exposure and get his feet wet for the future. You can only keep lightening in a bottle for so long. 

Agreed, Doc. AND, it sends a signal that the organization rewards hard work and results. That has to matter to guys on the cusp of a dream (and a much better paycheck).

Posted

I have a question for Rocco and the FO. Why in samhill to you keep thinking that Colome is a closer or any critical situation pitcher? The tone for this whole season was set when he blew the opener against the Brewers and he hasn't let up since.

Posted
13 minutes ago, Number3 said:

I have a question for Rocco and the FO. Why in samhill to you keep thinking that Colome is a closer or any critical situation pitcher? The tone for this whole season was set when he blew the opener against the Brewers and he hasn't let up since.

Frankly, I don't know if they care at this point. They'd rather sacrifice Colomé than put a younger, more inexperienced pitcher in his place and potentially mess with their head if they fail.

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